Big Rush Limbaugh Effect in Mississippi

[Puppycow]

Mississippi exit polls
Mississippi has an open primary and since the Republican nomination is all decided already, republicans are crossing over in significant numbers to vote for Hillary. Rush Limbaugh has encouraged them to do this, and Bill Clinton appeared on the Rush Limbaugh Show to accept Rush's support.

The numbers: 13% of voters in the democratic primary identified as Republicans and 77% of those voted for Clinton.
In Virginia, which was also an open primary, only 7% of voters in the democratic primary identified as Republicans and 72% of those voted for Obama.

ETA: Maybe Alabama, which neighbors Mississippi, is a more accurate "control group". In Alabama only 5% of voters in the democratic primary identified as Republicans and 45% of those voted for Obama, 3% Edwards and 52% Clinton. Still a big difference from 13% and 77%.

 

[kosai]

Well Obama won anyway, phew. The important thing is that Penn. is closed... Obama will probably lose there anyway, but at least it won't be for cheating.

 

[Puppycow]

Well Obama won anyway, phew. The important thing is that Penn. is closed... Obama will probably lose there anyway, but at least it won't be for cheating.

Yeah, but it probably cost him a couple delegates. It may not be decicive in the end, but every delegate could potentially count, because this will come down to superdelegates in the end (no outright victory on pledged delegates alone is possible for either candidate).

 

[David Wong]

He won Mississippi 59-39, that's right where it was polling. So I wouldn't think there's that much of a dent there.

 

[Puppycow]

He won Mississippi 59-39, that's right where it was polling. So I wouldn't think there's that much of a dent there.

Maybe the preelection polls reflected the same thing? They would ask people whether they plan to vote, and if so, for whom. So many of these same republicans could have told pollsters what their intentions were in the polls leading up to the vote, too.

So in any case, the fact remains. 77% of 13% is 10%. 10% of voters in the Democratic primary were Republicans voting for Hillary.

Among Democrats Obama won 67%. FWIW.

 

[Dorian Gray]

Bill Clinton accepted Limbaugh's support? Has he even heard of Limbaugh, or asked someone about him? Did not Limbaugh make a career out of bashing Bill? And doesn't Bill understand that Rush only wants Hillary to win because he doesn't consider her as much of a threat to McCain?

What an idiot. Well, at least he didn't hit on Limbaugh.

 

[technoextreme]

Yeah, but it probably cost him a couple delegates. It may not be decicive in the end, but every delegate could potentially count, because this will come down to superdelegates in the end (no outright victory on pledged delegates alone is possible for either candidate).

You are wrong. It is still possible to win on pledged delegates because aparently Hillary pointed out you can still the other delegates. It's not going to happen but I just thought I would point out what Hillary said.

 

[Just thinking]

Well Obama won anyway, phew. The important thing is that Penn. is closed... Obama will probably lose there anyway, but at least it won't be for cheating.

How is what was done cheating? The Dems, or better still, Mississippi, allow it --- legally. If they don't like it, don't allow it. Does PA know better?

 

[Just thinking]

He won Mississippi 59-39, that's right where it was polling. So I wouldn't think there's that much of a dent there.

Do you think he has much support in Mississippi, demographically speaking, of course? Perhaps this thread should have included in its title and Sun Rises in East.

 

[Trakar]

Well Obama won anyway, phew. The important thing is that Penn. is closed... Obama will probably lose there anyway, but at least it won't be for cheating.

How do you know it wasn't because of "cheating" that he won in Mississippi?

If Republicans were crossing over in numbers large enough to affect a ballot outcome, you don't think they would be capable of lying to a pollster? Obama's postion is, afterall, much more concilliatory and inclusive of appeasement to Republican ideas than Hillary's.

 

[Rob Lister]

Bill Clinton accepted Limbaugh's support? Has he even heard of Limbaugh, or asked someone about him? Did not Limbaugh make a career out of bashing Bill? And doesn't Bill understand that Rush only wants Hillary to win because he doesn't consider her as much of a threat to McCain?

What an idiot. Well, at least he didn't hit on Limbaugh.

um...in a word, no.

Rush would rather hillary win than mccain, but he'd rather mccain win than obama. Now, he won't explicitly say he wants hillary to win but he implies it repeatedly in every show I've caught in the last 4-5 months (maybe 15 or so). I won't get into his reasoning but it ain't shallow.

 

[ZouPrime]

How do you know it wasn't because of "cheating" that he won in Mississippi?

If Republicans were crossing over in numbers large enough to affect a ballot outcome, you don't think they would be capable of lying to a pollster? Obama's postion is, afterall, much more concilliatory and inclusive of appeasement to Republican ideas than Hillary's.

What motive would they have for lying? Do you have any evidence of this?

 

[Trakar]

What motive would they have for lying? Do you have any evidence of this?

Motive, to throw off the polls making them unreliable. I've heard some people say that they feel obligated to lie to all pollsters.

No, empiric evidence whatsoever, though I've seen some responses from Republicans who claim to have voted for Democrats in the democratic primaries, and these run the spectrum of; voted for Hillary because she will motivate Republican base in the General election, to, voted for Obama because I hate Hillary and think that Obama will be easier to beat in general election.

Back to motive, it is a bit disingenuous for committed Republicans to be voting in a democratic primary to begin with. The purpose of the primaries is to choose the candidate best able to win the general election and lead the nation, any primary voter who votes for a candidate that they don't want to be their president, is in essence lying, by what measure should we then assume that they've stopped lying after they leave the voting booth and respond to the pollsters outside their place of voting?

 

[Rob Lister]

Motive, to throw off the polls making them unreliable. I've heard some people say that they feel obligated to lie to all pollsters.

I would be one of those some. I make it a point to lie to pollsters.