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AUP show us your hurricanes

Drooper

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Joined
Nov 27, 2002
Messages
1,982
a_unique_person said:
A category 5 storm headed straight for a low lying coastal city. That seems to be a scenario right out of the predictions of the scientists investigating the possible effects of AGW.

Category 5 storms are not new, but the number of named storms so early in the hurricane season is.

AUP playnig the troll again. Making unsubtantiated claims [AUPspeak]expressing opinions[/AUPspeak] and then obfuscating in the face of requests for evidence or conflicting evidence provided by others.

AUPs claims?
Hurricane activity and force is visibly increasing beyond naturally occurring variation and that this is what AGW theory awould suggest.

The evidence that screams out that his claims (about which he still stands behind) are glaringly false and misleading is perhapd strongest here:

Hurricanes and Global Warming, August 2005

The key conclusions:
claims of linkages between global warming and hurricane impacts are premature for three reasons.

...no connection has been established between greenhouse gas emissions and the observed behavior of hurricanes...

Second, the peer-reviewed literature reflects a scientific consensus exists that any future changes in hurricane intensities will likely be small in the context of observed variability...

And third, under the assumptions of the IPCC, expected future damages to society of its projected changes in the behavior of hurricanes are dwarfed by the influence of its own projections of growing wealth and population

Let's just look more closely.

1. No connection has been established between GHGs and observed behaviour of hurricanes,

2. There is no expectation that any future change will be large enough to even be measurable against natural variation.

3. It is not expected that any future change will be possible by observing societal impact, because again that relative effects will be minor compared with other natural contributing factors.


So AUP, in this thread you can't hide. And I would cordially request that everybody else leave this thread clear for AUP to respond on his own behalf - the reason that I started a new thread is because he is hiding amongst the noise in the origianl thread.
 
Two small things then I'll go on my way.

Firstly, Drooper, you have a point as far as hurricane intensity and frequency goes (Downward trends in hurricane intensity and frequency ). I've seen a lot of debate on the influence of greenhouse gas increase, and models are weak at predicting much at this point. It's little surprising, looking at how many variable are involved in meterological prediction.

Badgering AUP does nothing, however, aside from making you seem like you have an agenda. Your opposition to AGW verges on fanatical, and concerning turnarounds such as the recent dismissal of John Christy's (U of A, 1992) oft used data on global tropospheric cooling relative to the Earth over recent decades, it seems that evidence continues to accumulate in favour of a gradual trend towards global warming. True, we cannot conclude with absolute certainty that anthropogenic causes are to blame, but it scientifically plausible and matches anthropological activity better than any other proposed model. Nothing in your arguments have ever convinced me that we should not endevour to look at alternatives to fossil-fuel consumption.

AUP's unsupported claim is not the first made on this forum, and won't be the last. Rebuke it, as I have done for you, stand by your opinion and move on. Jumping up and down like this makes you look more passionate than reasonable.

Athon
 
athon said:
Two small things then I'll go on my way.

Firstly, Drooper, you have a point as far as hurricane intensity and frequency goes (Downward trends in hurricane intensity and frequency ). I've seen a lot of debate on the influence of greenhouse gas increase, and models are weak at predicting much at this point. It's little surprising, looking at how many variable are involved in meterological prediction.

It is more that AUP has no point.

athon said:
Badgering AUP does nothing, however, aside from making you seem like you have an agenda.

I believe falsehoods left unchallenged pass into comon myth. This is one example. You say badger, I say persist in a request. Make note, he still has not responded by withdrawing or modifying his "opinion"

athon said:
Your opposition to AGW verges on fanatical, and concerning turnarounds such as the recent dismissal of John Christy's (U of A, 1992) oft used data on global tropospheric cooling relative to the Earth over recent decades, it seems that evidence continues to accumulate in favour of a gradual trend towards global warming. True, we cannot conclude with absolute certainty that anthropogenic causes are to blame, but it scientifically plausible and matches anthropological activity better than any other proposed model. Nothing in your arguments have ever convinced me that we should not endevour to look at alternatives to fossil-fuel consumption.

My fanatical opposition to AGW? I perhaps have a higher threshold for evidence and a much greatyer knowledge of statistics (especially in relation to times series data) and economics that makes this entire (and extremely broad) issue far more murky and less clear cut that it may appear to you. For example, you site lower tropospheric temperature anomolies. Can you tell me whether anyone has the ability to say they are statistically deifferent from a random walk (meaning they show evidence of a human caused trend)? I can. The answer is no. The same is true for land based measures and don't let's get started on longer terms "proxy" measures which are are absolute insult to discipline of statistics. SO you see charts with apparent upward drift, I see nothing more than a typical data series that moves about over time, supported by the known tested statistical characteristics of the series in question.


athon said:
AUP's unsupported claim is not the first made on this forum, and won't be the last.

Call me a fanatic if you will, but I will be there in an attempt to make sure this board is populated by reasoned and informed opinion. I don't sinlge out AUP and AGW. I do the same wirth respect to Barbrae and Homeopathy, Lucianarchy and Psi, anyone and ID. It is interesting that you seem to associate skeptic challenge on this issue as fanaticism. I have done nothing but posit rational argument, opinion and evidence.

athon said:
Rebuke it, as I have done for you, stand by your opinion and move on. Jumping up and down like this makes you look more passionate than reasonable.

Athon

Sorry? You lost me there. what do you mean"rebuke it". What did you rebuke and when and why did you do it?

And am I really jumping up and down? Am I the first person on this forum to open a new thread in an attempt to force a response from somebody obfuscating on an important point at issue?

Maybe it is my style, but I have no emotion invested in this at all. I only wanted AUPs response (as I said specifically at the top of this thread) and didn't want anyone else's opinion. Why? Because he started the initial hurricane thread and made the claims and wouldn't respond to my points. But that, again, is for him, not you.
 
To be fully honest with you, Drooper, I have less time for the woo's on the board than anybody else. I refuse to debate nonsense, choosing to offer a response that either asks for clarification of their 'evidence' or (more often than not) simply walking away if they cannot respond reasonably to my questions.

I use the same skepticism with them as I do with AGW. Concerning evidence I have no strong expertise on, I evaluate who is presenting the evidence, how it is presented, the nature of the argument, the apparent bias, and so forth.

When it comes to AGW, I don't believe it is clear cut at all and admit I could well hold an incorrect opinion. But as with any field where my expertise is limited, I use my skepticism to evaluate what is being said and compare it with what I do know before forming an opinion that can be swayed as I learn more. I won't argue the AGW issue because I admit I am less than fully informed. However, based on articles I have read, and my evaluation of the data, I am yet to be slanted towards a non anthropogenic cause.

My opinion is simply that going on past responses of yours, I feel that it is overly passionate, almost as much as a lot of the less-than-informed advocates of AGW. I often use as a guage of science whether a person is willing to admit they might be wrong, and whether they can see flaws in their own conclusions. One thing I do know about possible global warming is that it is difficult to guage an absolute conclusion on the statistics, as you indicated.

Look, fine. I admire that you have a contrary stance to the socially accepted AGW conclusions, and feel you might indeed have some points. But I'll ignore anything that might otherwise sway me, much as I ignore those who pursue woos with too much emotion. Make your evidence stand for you, not your rage.

Athon
 
athon said:
To be fully honest with you, Drooper, I have less time for the woo's on the board than anybody else. I refuse to debate nonsense, choosing to offer a response that either asks for clarification of their 'evidence' or (more often than not) simply walking away if they cannot respond reasonably to my questions.

I use the same skepticism with them as I do with AGW. Concerning evidence I have no strong expertise on, I evaluate who is presenting the evidence, how it is presented, the nature of the argument, the apparent bias, and so forth.

When it comes to AGW, I don't believe it is clear cut at all and admit I could well hold an incorrect opinion. But as with any field where my expertise is limited, I use my skepticism to evaluate what is being said and compare it with what I do know before forming an opinion that can be swayed as I learn more. I won't argue the AGW issue because I admit I am less than fully informed. However, based on articles I have read, and my evaluation of the data, I am yet to be slanted towards a non anthropogenic cause.

My opinion is simply that going on past responses of yours, I feel that it is overly passionate, almost as much as a lot of the less-than-informed advocates of AGW. I often use as a guage of science whether a person is willing to admit they might be wrong, and whether they can see flaws in their own conclusions. One thing I do know about possible global warming is that it is difficult to guage an absolute conclusion on the statistics, as you indicated.

Look, fine. I admire that you have a contrary stance to the socially accepted AGW conclusions, and feel you might indeed have some points. But I'll ignore anything that might otherwise sway me, much as I ignore those who pursue woos with too much emotion. Make your evidence stand for you, not your rage.

Athon

I can see myself taking a break forum this forum.

I can't see what you are even doing in this thread. I have never to my knowledge ever discussed this issue with you. In fact I can't ever recall you responding to anything I have posted in the past. Ever.

You seem intent on trying to characterise my behaviour as emotive. This time you imply rage. But again. I can calmy state that I have nothing invested emotionally in this issue and can't see anything in my comments that betray any sense of emotion.

Meanwhile AUP utters profanity in my direction (see my sig.) and is percieved as some sort of victim and people (take a bow) seem to feel obligated to leap in the middle of an exchange to jump to his defence. It doesn't bother me, I just find it bizarre.
 
This thread is getting a bit heated. I don't care much who started it but I would like you to please stop it, and stop it now. Please consider your local friendly moderator!
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: tim
 
I'll withdraw my accusation of 'rage' and apologise. In hindsight, it's far too harsh. But you do seem to get awfully worked up by the issue, and I simply saw it as being an emotional action rather than one that did your argument any good. That's my opinion, and not a statement of fact.

I'll make this my last say - as debate is clearly not welcome on the matter - and let your last post speak for itself.

Athon
 
Drooper said:
I can see myself taking a break forum this forum.

I can't see what you are even doing in this thread. I have never to my knowledge ever discussed this issue with you. In fact I can't ever recall you responding to anything I have posted in the past. Ever.

You seem intent on trying to characterise my behaviour as emotive. This time you imply rage. But again. I can calmy state that I have nothing invested emotionally in this issue and can't see anything in my comments that betray any sense of emotion.

Meanwhile AUP utters profanity in my direction (see my sig.) and is percieved as some sort of victim and people (take a bow) seem to feel obligated to leap in the middle of an exchange to jump to his defence. It doesn't bother me, I just find it bizarre.

Maybe it's just the way you start right off with accusing me of trolling, then make demands of me.

I don't post here because people demand things from me, I do it because I want to. You can't make me do anything, you are in no position to demand anything of me. If I reply to anything anyone posts here, it is because I want to. You are carrying on like a tinpot facist.
 
a_unique_person said:
Maybe it's just the way you start right off with accusing me of trolling, then make demands of me.

I don't post here because people demand things from me, I do it because I want to. You can't make me do anything, you are in no position to demand anything of me. If I reply to anything anyone posts here, it is because I want to. You are carrying on like a tinpot facist.
Beware you don't step on your tongue while sticking it out at your percieved tormentors. You might trip, and then they could catch you.:p







Chill out, folks! It's only words, after all. :D

Also, regarding the parent thread, Rolfe is one of the most rational and polite posters on this forum: please don't try to chase her off.

Dave
 
CaveDave said:

Also, regarding the parent thread, Rolfe is one of the most rational and polite posters on this forum: please don't try to chase her off.

Dave

I haven't done anything to chase her off, Drooper was the person who turned up and decided to not just be rude, but harass me personally. I don't have to put up with that.

If he really believes what he says, then his facts and logic will demonstrate that he is right and I am wrong. What he brings to the debate is just supercilious, belligerent boorishness.
 
a_unique_person said:
I haven't done anything to chase her off, Drooper was the person who turned up and decided to not just be rude, but harass me personally. I don't have to put up with that.

If he really believes what he says, then his facts and logic will demonstrate that he is right and I am wrong. What he brings to the debate is just supercilious, belligerent boorishness.
I have to confirm that. All the negative comment directed at me on that thread came from Drooper (and perhaps BobK was in there too but that's another and much longer story).

I really don't know anything about past history here, but as far as this present set of exchanges is concerned, I have only seen AUP react to provocation.

I have no problem at all believing that the recent hurricane has no more to do with climate change than the tsunami. However, every time I turn on the radio or television, I hear people who appear to have respected academic credentials in the field discussion the possibility of a connection as if it were a rational question. I also hear climate change, and the likelihood that this is being caused by human activity, discussed as pretty close to accepted fact, again by those who appear to have respected credentials in the field. So, when I find a vocal group of posters here who take a contrary view, I'm interested to hear what they have to say that might suggest that the scientific consensus as presented to the public has got it so spectacularly wrong.

However, all I hear are insults, playing the man rather than the ball, and ad-hom dismissals of people like the UK Chief Scientific Officer and senior officials at the Meteorological Office as "talking heads", who "aren't good enough". There is also the occasional link to a web site or two, with the sneering assertion that anyone who can't be bothered to go and read that isn't interested. The last time I followed such links I got to that laughable petition, which probably has Donald Duck in there somewhere, being presented as evidence that a solid body of scientific opinion rejects global warming. Thanks, I prefer the talking heads!

Any actual factual discussion which might be in the threads (and I thought I detected some) is pretty much buried in the insults and belligerence, and inevitably coloured by its context.

I have patiently explained the fallacies of homoeopathic practice, and various other altmeddler interventions, on numerous occasions. Patiently, and clearly, going back to first principles when a new poster who clearly doesn't have any background knowledge of the issues joins in. Others regularly do the same. And we'll do it again and again so long as interested newcomers keep joining the debate. I can't say that sniping never happens, as we get fed up with people like Sarah who keep chiming in with the same woo, but by and large more posters prefer to try to explain themselves calmly and clearly, in as basic terms as it takes, to the uncommitted.

Is it so difficult to discuss global warming in this spirit?

Rolfe.
 
Rolfe said:
I have to confirm that. All the negative comment directed at me on that thread came from Drooper (and perhaps BobK was in there too but that's another and much longer story).

I really don't know anything about past history here, but as far as this present set of exchanges is concerned, I have only seen AUP react to provocation.

I have no problem at all believing that the recent hurricane has no more to do with climate change than the tsunami. However, every time I turn on the radio or television, I hear people who appear to have respected academic credentials in the field discussion the possibility of a connection as if it were a rational question. I also hear climate change, and the likelihood that this is being caused by human activity, discussed as pretty close to accepted fact, again by those who appear to have respected credentials in the field. So, when I find a vocal group of posters here who take a contrary view, I'm interested to hear what they have to say that might suggest that the scientific consensus as presented to the public has got it so spectacularly wrong.

However, all I hear are insults, playing the man rather than the ball, and ad-hom dismissals of people like the UK Chief Scientific Officer and senior officials at the Meteorological Office as "talking heads", who "aren't good enough". There is also the occasional link to a web site or two, with the sneering assertion that anyone who can't be bothered to go and read that isn't interested. The last time I followed such links I got to that laughable petition, which probably has Donald Duck in there somewhere, being presented as evidence that a solid body of scientific opinion rejects global warming. Thanks, I prefer the talking heads!

Any actual factual discussion which might be in the threads (and I thought I detected some) is pretty much buried in the insults and belligerence, and inevitably coloured by its context.

I have patiently explained the fallacies of homoeopathic practice, and various other altmeddler interventions, on numerous occasions. Patiently, and clearly, going back to first principles when a new poster who clearly doesn't have any background knowledge of the issues joins in. Others regularly do the same. And we'll do it again and again so long as interested newcomers keep joining the debate. I can't say that sniping never happens, as we get fed up with people like Sarah who keep chiming in with the same woo, but by and large more posters prefer to try to explain themselves calmly and clearly, in as basic terms as it takes, to the uncommitted.

Is it so difficult to discuss global warming in this spirit?

Rolfe.

This will be my final word. And it address AUPs post above yours as well

If you (or AUP) can site any post where I have been rude, use ad hominem or personal attack then do it.

The phrase "talking head" is not ad hom and is (media) industry standard.

By comparison AUPs favouruite "denier" is indeed ad hom and his profanity directed at me (see my sig.) is clearly rube - you don't have any problem with it.

Moreover, what is rude is the rather slanderous way I am being characterised by you and others who have never ever in the past conversed with me about anything.

I was quite happy to leave this die and abide with the mod's cease and desist request that appears above. But it was not I that subsequently launched further subsequent personal attacks on others.
 
Originally posted by Drooper (in the other thread, commenting on a post of mine)
I don't know why you sem to seek out these threads and almost unfailingly repsond to my posts. YOu seem to have little knowledge of the subject and show little interest in learning about the underlying research and methodology - towhit the extent of your knowledge being last night's talking head.
Originally posted by Drooper (above)
Moreover, what is rude is the rather slanderous way I am being characterised by you and others who have never ever in the past conversed with me about anything.
Oh, make up your mind!

Does it not occur to you to consider why a number of posters who don't have personal issues with you are interpreting your posts as belligerent and unhelpful? Maybe because that's what they are?

Your use of the phrase "talking heads" was absolutely an argumentum ad hominem - that is a dismissal of the argument on the grounds that the person making the argument is not credible, rather than on defects in the argument itself. Insults are something else. Well, they're insults, that's all.

If you can't, or don't want to explain your position in such a way that those who have little familiarity with the field will understand what you are saying and be inspired to follow this up with further reading, then I can't force you. It's just a pity that every thread where anyone asks an honest question, or presents an honest point of view for discussion, seems to be instantly overwhelmed by insults and bickering.

Rolfe.
 
Drooper said:
This will be my final word. And it address AUPs post above yours as well

If you (or AUP) can site any post where I have been rude, use ad hominem or personal attack then do it.

The phrase "talking head" is not ad hom and is (media) industry standard.

By comparison AUPs favouruite "denier" is indeed ad hom and his profanity directed at me (see my sig.) is clearly rube - you don't have any problem with it.

Moreover, what is rude is the rather slanderous way I am being characterised by you and others who have never ever in the past conversed with me about anything.

I was quite happy to leave this die and abide with the mod's cease and desist request that appears above. But it was not I that subsequently launched further subsequent personal attacks on others.

Quit acting like you're being victimised, Drooper. The critisicms against you have more to do with the nature of your expression than any direct ad-homs. For instance, setting up a thread just to draw attention to somebody not backing up a statement I would class as petty and emotional. I say the same thing about those who chase 'woos' and the like; if they make a statement, others should debate why it might be wrong and give evidence to the contrary and let it stand for itself.

Like it or not, this is an open forum where what you have to say is open to analysis and criticism from parties other than those directly involved in a debate. If you don't like that aspect, don't post. Simple. I know you find it difficult to understand why posters such as myself have commented here, but while I refrain from engaging in a lot of discussions I like to follow them nonetheless. As Rolfe said, the field of GW is an interesting one due to the balance of argument. I like being educated on it.

But sometimes what you argue is slanted by a level of condescension that colours an otherwise worthwhile statement.

If you still feel victimised and see no merit in what we've had to say, so be it. I'm not overly worried. It's just a shame to have a rather interesting debate turn into a catfight because conflict of emotions take precedence over conflict of evidence.

Athon
 

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