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Arctic Ice Melt = Accelerating GW

a_unique_person said:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6433717/

The evidence just keeps stacking up. No more of that John Daley looney rubbish, please.

assuming it's true (and I have no problem doing so) and...

Possible benefits like more productive fisheries, easier access to oil and gas deposits or trans-Arctic shipping routes would be outweighed by threats to indigenous peoples and the habitats of animals and plants.

Why is the above true. I would say just the opposite.
 
a_unique_person said:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6433717/

The evidence just keeps stacking up. No more of that John Daley looney rubbish, please.

Typical AUP post. No new information at all in this "report". Just another scenario building exercise - "what we think will happen IF the temperature increases, blah blah blah"

Same old "facts" recycled in an expensive glossy publication.

All the old favourites are there including the beloved "hockey stick".

Also the same old misrpepresntations about glaciers, localised versus global warming effects, and ice cover/thickness. All of these have been addressed and degbuned many times over.

What this extremely expensive undertaking shows is the amount of money the global warming industry has to lavish on prjects that don't advance our understanding by the smallest of margins.
 
Re: Re: Arctic Ice Melt = Accelerating GW

Drooper said:
Typical AUP post. No new information at all in this "report". Just another scenario building exercise - "what we think will happen IF the temperature increases, blah blah blah"
Typical Drooper post -- unsupported, condescending opinion, not even a report with nothing new in it.
 
I'm just guessing....but it appears that AUP thinks that liberal Hollywood's
"The Day After Tomorrow" was a documentary??


Or perhaps he thinks that science supports that GWB is to blame for the hurricanes that hit Florida this year???

Global warming is a legitimate issue....but let's not pretend that real science actually supports these doomsday scenarios...it doesn't.

-z
 
For anyone interested, there has been an excellent ongoing reasoned discussion of this subject on the Bad Astronomy BB from a scientific (rather than political) perspective. Seven pages or so, and quite worth it.
 
Thanks Wolverine,

That's a great thread! I'm gonna go back and finish reading it now. As a skeptic I'd certainly rather discuss the issue of global warming in a scientific forum rather than here.

You just can't politicize science...either the evidence is there, or it is not.

-z
 
Glad you've enjoyed, and I would have to agree.

IMHO, this comment squarely struck the nail:

For every legitimately unbiased paper, there are probably 3 politically motivated ones. (biased both ways, I might add—equal opportunity bad science.) Global Warming has a life of its own now as a public policy subject—totally independent of the real science.
 
The evidence just keeps stacking up.

The melting is not questioned - the issue is the cause. That the cause is human-generated air pollution has always rested on two "arguments":

- statistical correlations

- argument to authority

I.e., no real proof. Keep the factories humming! :)
 
Are you a climatologist? I'm not. As a layperson, I rely on the opinions of authorities

No, but I have two science degrees and can understand a scientific explanation. I'm suspicious when I read that X number of scientists took a vote and agreed about global warming's cause.
 
Re: Re: Arctic Ice Melt = Accelerating GW

Drooper said:
Typical AUP post. No new information at all in this "report". Just another scenario building exercise - "what we think will happen IF the temperature increases, blah blah blah"

That's enough, drooper, there's no "if". The temperature in the Arctic IS increasing, rapidly, and the rate of change of increase IS INCREASING, and rapidly.

It's a measurement, fella. If you want to argue about why, go ahead, but it IS happening, there's no "if", it's fact. Measured, tested, confirmable, verifiable fact.

Now, if that offends your belief system, well, nothing I can do for you.
 
Patrick said:
The evidence just keeps stacking up.

The melting is not questioned - the issue is the cause. That the cause is human-generated air pollution has always rested on two "arguments":

- statistical correlations

- argument to authority

I.e., no real proof. Keep the factories humming! :)

I presume, then, that you also reject statistical evidence of things like cigarettes causing lung cancer, sunburn causing melanoma, and the like?

The evidence of each of the 3 is now approaching the same level. A few years ago, the evidence for the cause of global warming wasn't that clear, but as time goes on, its' easier to sort out the confouding variables, easier and easier.

But, of course, that's all statistical evidence, and you said you reject that.

Do you also smoke and sunburn regularly?
 
Re: Re: Re: Arctic Ice Melt = Accelerating GW

jj said:
That's enough, drooper, there's no "if". The temperature in the Arctic IS increasing, rapidly, and the rate of change of increase IS INCREASING, and rapidly.

It's a measurement, fella. If you want to argue about why, go ahead, but it IS happening, there's no "if", it's fact. Measured, tested, confirmable, verifiable fact.

Now, if that offends your belief system, well, nothing I can do for you.

go back and read the post again. The way I framed it, it may have appeared a little ambiguous, but my point wasn't the one you got.
 
I presume, then, that you also reject statistical evidence of things like cigarettes causing lung cancer, sunburn causing melanoma, and the like?

The evidence of each of the 3 is now approaching the same level. A few years ago, the evidence for the cause of global warming wasn't that clear, but as time goes on, its' easier to sort out the confouding variables, easier and easier.

But, of course, that's all statistical evidence, and you said you reject that.

Do you also smoke and sunburn regularly?


I used to smoke, but gave it up because the statistical correlations between smoking and cancer suggested that it was a reasonable speculation that there was a causal link between the two, although this has never been proved to my knowledge. I am not likewise willing to devastate the american economy, though, on such slim evidence as statistical correlations. And with the multitudes of variables affecting the planetery surface, oceans and atmosphere, I 'm skeptical that the they are really being sufficiently sorted out to determine a causal connection. And you, too, are skeptical about unproven claims -- right?
 
Patrick said:
I used to smoke, but gave it up because the statistical correlations between smoking and cancer suggested that it was a reasonable speculation that there was a causal link between the two, although this has never been proved to my knowledge.


Well, let's go scientific. There is no such thing, ever, as "proved", only "best understanding". By that standard, smoking is shown to create chemicals that in other animals (the ethics problem being what it is) cause cancer, and to apply those chemicals to the same membranes in humans. This is not proof. This is, however, a very likely mechanism.

Studies of smokers show much higher cancer rates for exactly the kind of cancers that would be expected.

This is not proof. There is no such thing as "proof" scientifically, but there is gobs of evidence, and mechanism.


I am not likewise willing to devastate the american economy,


Argues facts not in evidence. There is no evidence that the american economy must be devasted. There is evidence, in fact, that it will operate more efficiently and with less harm to the environment if it operates in more efficient (i.e. less wasteful) fashions. This is not devastation, it is an increase in efficiency.

If done sanely, the biggest result is an increase in employment in the short term, of workers building the necessary infrastructure to make the economy more efficient.

If we don't make it more efficient, we go the way of the old steel industry, who has already learned this lesson, so these are changes that are necessary EVEN WITHOUT GLOBAL WARMING.


though, on such slim evidence as statistical correlations.


Again, we have both statistical evidence and well-understood mechanisms. The two issues are not very different.

Your instance on proof is saying, exactly, if you are speaking scientifically, that you will NEVER do this, no matter what, as there is no such thing as PROOF in science, only massive evidence.


And with the multitudes of variables affecting the planetery surface, oceans and atmosphere, I 'm skeptical that the they are really being sufficiently sorted out to determine a causal connection.


Argument to ignorance. The level of CO2 and the temperature are measurements. We need to understand what's going on, but we can see that CO2 is an issue, as is methane, and that we ought to do something, regardless of where the CO2 and methane come from, human or not, because regardless, it's going to seriously affect us.

Arguing that we don't know it all is again the same as arguing that we never, ever, do anything, because we never, ever, know it all.


And you, too, are skeptical about unproven claims -- right?

Ad-hominem. Here you attack your opponent, after sliding through piles of rhetorical fallacies and excesses.

If you really wanted to discuss this, you wouldn't be talking about "proof" because you're a scientist, you've said so, and so you know that there is no such thing as PROOF, only evidence.

And the evidence is there, guys. The "why" and the understanding are certainly not complete, but they weren't even nearly as good when Watt built his steam engine, either.

Your argument, basically, is that of paralysis due to appeal to ignorance.

You get to decide for yourself, but you've run up a straw man (devastate US economy), etc, etc.
 
There's a reason why global warming keeps popping up in political threads.

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol, also addressing that theory of man-made global warming is exemplar of efforts addressing (principally) domestic activities. It does claim a purported global phenomenon as its basis and the bulk of the world’s recognized states as parties, but selectively commits certain developed nations to reduce domestic energy use emissions. Given current technology, for the foreseeable future Kyoto thereby effectively rations and redistributes particular domestic economic activity by instituting this selective cap, in perpetuity and not indexed for economic or population growth. As such, Kyoto is arguably in truth an economic instrument by which foreign competitors hope to mitigate U.S. competitive advantages.

(warning: big PDF file)
http://www.fed-soc.org/Intllaw&%20AmerSov/Treatypaper.pdf
 
If you really wanted to discuss this, you wouldn't be talking about "proof" because you're a scientist, you've said so, and so you know that there is no such thing as PROOF, only evidence.

Well no, I didn't say that, I said I have science degrees. Strictly speaking, you are correct that the scientific method yields only evidence, not proof. However, vis-a-vis this thread, that's not saying much. There are vast differences in the quality of evidence. E.g., physicists refer to the "law" of gravity, a designation given to relatively few physical concepts, because it is easily and readily demonstrated everywhere and under almost any conditions - nobody has ever found a single valid contradicting datum in the centuries since it was formulated by Newton. Statistical correlation on the other hand is the weakest of evidence, it frequently causes reversals of perceived cause and and effect - and can be present when there is no other evidence for a causal connection - in my statistics textbook in school, they showed a strong correlation between the lynx population in the southwest and the sunspot cycle.

I have at least two main problems with the air pollution theory of global warming (not getting into the ideological cheerleading for it). With all the mechanisms that can and do affect global temperature, I think it's near impossible to have a valid causation model - there are just too many variables. The other is that there have been wide swings in temperature before the industrial age and in prehistoric times, as shown e.g. by tree rings and arctic ice core evidence. As for as I know, there is no convincing model of these temperature fluctuations. If there were, then the effects of those causes could be "subtracted out" of current temperatures, and the residual could be more convincingly ascribed to human activity. Also, I'm not sure adequate attention has been paid to the possible effects of non-pollution-generating human activity on temperature - e.g., extremely widespread land clearing and damming.
 

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