I'm just now entering into this mess, but here is a protocol proposal from a gentleman named Johnston who believes that he can prove astrology works, along with Randi's responses (in italics)
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1. I will submit 500 horoscopes of earthquakes and 500 horoscopes of famous people.
Do you mean (a) dates, (b) natal charts, or (c) full predictions based on charts?
2. From these two groups 300 hundred charts will be randomly selected by a third party.
From (a) the 1000 “horoscopes†mixed together, or (b) equal numbers of each from the two groups?
3. Neither you, nor I will know after the selection process is complete which group will be the earthquake group and which group will be the famous people group.
Which groups of what? Now you have two groups! What are these two groups?
4. When the two groups are selected all data that is on the charts such as names, dates, locations, the positions of the planets along the zodiac will be not be made known to my self [sic] so that I will have no clues as to what dates the charts could be from, or whether the charts are drawn for locations that are suggestive of earthquakes, or of people.
(a) What two groups? (b) If the names, dates, locations, and the positions of the planets are removed, what do the “horoscopes†consist of?
5. This could be done beforehand by simply not printing the horoscopes with this information and rather just the planetary configuration data.
But you just said that “the planetary configuration data†would be removed!
6. After the selection process is complete the two sets of modified horoscopes will be submitted to me for examination. I will determine by analyzing the geometrical configurations of the planets which group is the earthquake group and which group is the people.
If these are divided into “two sets,†I assume they’d be the “earthquake†group and the “people†group. You would have a 50% change of designating which group is which by guessing!
7. This should satisfy your requirements.
Not in your wildest dreams…
8. It will prove that the planets do astrologically affect events on the earth, as the gravitational effect from the planets that is needed to stimulate earthquakes is orders of magnitude greater than the gravitational effect that the planets exert on the earth.
You are saying: “The gravitational effect from the planets ….. is orders of magnitude greater than the gravitational effect that the planets exert on the earth.†This makes no sense.
9. It will also show that there is a qualitative difference between the times that people are born and the times that earthquakes occur and that the qualitative difference between these two types of events can be determined by astrological analysis.
I will be able to determine as specified in the original communcation between the group of charts that are of people and the group of charts that are of earthquakes. This difference can be found through the qualiative differences between the planetary geometrical aspects and their exact circumstances. Simple.
“Qualitative†in what respect? Vagueness? Stupidity? Inconsequentiality? Insignificance? Specify.
10. I feel that this test is robust and will adequately satisfy the requirements of the test as you have requested. It is a standard test that would be acceptable in other disciplines such as psychology, or engineering.
Untrue, in both respects.
This is the same kind of test that is used every day to determine whether one process is better than another, whether one group of people like jam on their toast,or another like peanut butter, or whether you can make cars faster by taking chairs away from one group of employees and leaving them with another. The test was developed to be double blind. The charts would be given to a third party. Any and all identifying marks that could gives clues as to which batch the charts belong to, people, or earthquakes, would be removed. The remaining data would be the exact geometrical planetary aspect data. This data should be identical between the two groups if there is no effect from the planets. The third party would select three hundred charts from each group. Three hundred people and three hundred earthquake charts. The two groups would then be analyzed and the differences between them tabulated. This analysis will then determine which group is people and which group is earthquakes. This would be the initial test.
It is done every day where?
11. If this test is not acceptable to you, then please explain what kind of test would be acceptable and what this would entail.
Gladly, as soon as you state what you claim you can do – clearly, understandably, in English.
The proposal was clear, but it is clear that you don't understand what you are testing.
12. If I feel then that the test you require is not scientific, or relevant to my research, then I will have to withdraw from the challenge.
Okay. Let us know.
James Randi.
===========================================
Then THIS:
I am sorry that you were offended by my email, but I thought you might like to know that I had responded to your requests. It seems that you do not accept the same kind of tests that are accepted in industry and laboratories around the world. The test is double blind and the sorting can be repeated as many times as you wish. If you don't understand the kind of scientific test that I have proposed, the same kind as is used daily throughout the world to determine the correct industrial and manufacturing processes that make the worlds factories and scientific establishments function efficiently and profitably, then I am at a loss as to what I can do to make you understand.
I will respond to your objections:
1. I will submit 500 horoscopes of earthquakes and 500 horoscopes of famous people.
Do you mean (a) dates, (b) natal charts, or (c) full predictions based on charts?
I think I made this clear in the original proposal. I will give you full horoscopes. I will ensure as much as possible that I can't know which horoscopes are of people and which are of earthquakes. Why would I be making predictions? That was not mentioned in the test. You seem to be straying away from science. It seems that you don't have a basic understanding of what astrology is, or what it is that is being tested. What the test is of is a test of a force of nature that is unexplained. The force creates changes in the rate of seismic activity on the earth. The test is not of fortune telling. I can make predictions on the rate of earthquakes and the probability of major events that will occur, as I have recently submitted to a major national newspaper, which by the way predicted the earthquake in Indonesia over the weekend. If I were to make such predictions they would be statistical probabilities. The data for earthquake rates is generally not available for several months after the events occur, it takes that long to get all the data published. The importance of earthquake prediction cannot be overstated and should not be trivialized. The object of this test as clearly stated in the original text is to determine if there can be any way to differentiate between the astrological planetary configurations that are extant when a person is born as compared to the moment when earthquakes occur. The data that would be supplied to you would be randomized and any way to identify which batch of horoscopes were of people and which were of earthquakes. This test can be repeated as often as required and in as many randomization's as would be deemed appropriate and the data can be collected by anyone, however the construction of the horoscopes of 500 earthquakes to the second and to the 10th of an arc minute of latitude and longitude, as my data bases contain, requires many hundreds of hours to complete. Birth data horoscopes of famous people can be obtained easily from a variety of sources. The source and content as far as who the people are is irrelevant. The fact remains, people are born under different planetary conditions than those which stimulate seismic activity and that this can be determined by analysis of the planetary aspects at the time of birth.
2. From these two groups 300 hundred charts will be randomly selected by a third party.
From (a) the 1000 “horoscopes†mixed together, or (b) equal numbers of each from the two groups?
This was also explained. There will be two groups, one of famous people, one of earthquakes, 500 each.
3. Neither you, nor I will know after the selection process is complete which group will be the earthquake group and which group will be the famous people group.
Which groups of what? Now you have two groups! What are these two groups?
Earthquakes and people as clearly outlined.
4. When the two groups are selected all data that is on the charts such as names, dates, locations, the positions of the planets along the zodiac will be not be made known to my self [sic] so that I will have no clues as to what dates the charts could be from, or whether the charts are drawn for locations that are suggestive of earthquakes, or of people.
(a) What two groups? (b) If the names, dates, locations, and the positions of the planets are removed, what do the “horoscopes†consist of?
It is difficult to explain to someone who does not understand the basics of astronomy or astrology.The horoscopes are the astronomical data that was extant at the moment of the occurrence of each event, being an expert in both astronomy and astrology I can tell from the positions of the planets when the event took place. Any data on the horoscopes that would give me any clue as to when the charts were cast for would be removed so that I could not determine which batch was which.
5. This could be done beforehand by simply not printing the horoscopes with this information and rather just the planetary configuration data.
But you just said that “the planetary configuration data†would be removed!
This is getting tedious. You should at least have a little understanding of what you are a skeptic of.The configuration data, the aspects and their exact circumstances are not the positions of the planets. It is sort of like having a parking lot full of cars and the planets are the cars, but the exact angular relationships between the cars tells you a lot about what kind of cars are in the parking lot. If you remove the cars, but record the angular relationship between the cars then you won't be able to immediately tell what kind of cars you have in the parking lot. If you have two parking lots full of cars. One parking lot has Lincoln Town Cars in it and the other has Minis in it. If you record the data on the angular relationships between the cars and then remove the cars, by examining the details of the angular relationships between the cars you will be able to tell which parking lot had the Minis in it and which had the town cars. The postulation is that no matter what with astrology there should be no way to tell if the parking lots were full of people, or earthquakes if you remove the cars (planets) and retain the geometrical data. It should not matter whether the parking lots were full of grasshoppers and glass shoes. It should be impossible to tell the difference between the two groups by any kind of analysis, let alone the geometry of the planets. It is physically impossible for the planets to affect earthquakes through normal gravitational means. This has been stated by such people as Carl Sagan, and EC Krupp of the Griffeths Observatory, and I agree. The fact remains, when the two groups are analyzed there is a difference between them. Therefore there must be some other force at work. This force is the force of the astrological planetary aspects, which are the foundation of astrology. Without the planetary aspects there would be no astrology. The exact angles that affect seismic activity are the same ones, and the only ones, that are used by astrologers. All other possible angles have been tested and only the ones used by astrologers have any effect. The original suggestion was to do a quick test to move on to the more important testing. The idea that you can tell the difference between the charts of people and earthquakes is categorically impossible. The fact that it can be done is unexplainable. The test could similarly be done, as I have in the past as is recorded on my web site www.temporaltheory.com/earthquakes/ the two sets of data, people and earthquakes could be separated into groups of thirty. Making ten groups of earthquakes and ten groups of people. The two separate data sets must remain separated. The individual 10 sets of each group are then analyzed and plotted. It can then be determined which group of tens sets is the earthquake group and which set is the people group. This is just standard testing. T-tests can be performed on both data set groups if required to eliminate any doubt of random errors. The t-tests will show that there is a difference between the two groups and the null hypothesis can be eliminated. This has already been done and published and can be repeated ad nauseum.
6. After the selection process is complete the two sets of modified horoscopes will be submitted to me for examination. I will determine by analyzing the geometrical configurations of the planets which group is the earthquake group and which group is the people.
If these are divided into “two sets,†I assume they’d be the “earthquake†group and the “people†group. You would have a 50% change of designating which group is which by guessing!
Which is true if it was done only once. The 500 charts of each group, people and earthquakes can be given to the third party, rerandomized and 300 from each group selected again as many times as you wish. The results will always be the same.
7. This should satisfy your requirements.
Not in your wildest dreams...
Because you were not thinking about the fullness of the test, rather just its rudimentaries.
8. It will prove that the planets do astrologically affect events on the earth, as the gravitational effect from the planets that is needed to stimulate earthquakes is orders of magnitude greater than the gravitational effect that the planets exert on the earth.
You are saying: “The gravitational effect from the planets ….. is orders of magnitude greater than the gravitational effect that the planets exert on the earth.†This makes no sense.
Bingo!
You just made the connection. The gravitational effect of the planets is not great enough to cause earthquakes. If this is true, then how do the planets stimulate earthquake production??? This is very strange, but true. The fact that the planetary aspects do affect seismic activity is the prime test here and the conditions that stimulate earthquakes are not the same ones as when people are born. That is the test.
12. If I feel then that the test you require is not scientific, or relevant to my research, then I will have to withdraw from the challenge.
Okay. Let us know.
The response given is the one that was expected. I did not expect such a vitriolic response from someone who is supposed to be an upholder of values, but what is given is given. I suppose I expected a need for clarification and I was sure that you would reject the first proposal. The scientific evidence for the basis of this research is available to anyone who cares to view it on my web site and at www.isarastrology.com/projects The test can be repeated as many times as required, but the data bases are limited as far as earthquakes are concerned. The criteria for selecting randomized earthquake data is extremely stringent and requires a rigid selection procedure. Let me know.
=========================================
1. I will submit 500 horoscopes of earthquakes and 500 horoscopes of famous people.
Do you mean (a) dates, (b) natal charts, or (c) full predictions based on charts?
2. From these two groups 300 hundred charts will be randomly selected by a third party.
From (a) the 1000 “horoscopes†mixed together, or (b) equal numbers of each from the two groups?
3. Neither you, nor I will know after the selection process is complete which group will be the earthquake group and which group will be the famous people group.
Which groups of what? Now you have two groups! What are these two groups?
4. When the two groups are selected all data that is on the charts such as names, dates, locations, the positions of the planets along the zodiac will be not be made known to my self [sic] so that I will have no clues as to what dates the charts could be from, or whether the charts are drawn for locations that are suggestive of earthquakes, or of people.
(a) What two groups? (b) If the names, dates, locations, and the positions of the planets are removed, what do the “horoscopes†consist of?
5. This could be done beforehand by simply not printing the horoscopes with this information and rather just the planetary configuration data.
But you just said that “the planetary configuration data†would be removed!
6. After the selection process is complete the two sets of modified horoscopes will be submitted to me for examination. I will determine by analyzing the geometrical configurations of the planets which group is the earthquake group and which group is the people.
If these are divided into “two sets,†I assume they’d be the “earthquake†group and the “people†group. You would have a 50% change of designating which group is which by guessing!
7. This should satisfy your requirements.
Not in your wildest dreams…
8. It will prove that the planets do astrologically affect events on the earth, as the gravitational effect from the planets that is needed to stimulate earthquakes is orders of magnitude greater than the gravitational effect that the planets exert on the earth.
You are saying: “The gravitational effect from the planets ….. is orders of magnitude greater than the gravitational effect that the planets exert on the earth.†This makes no sense.
9. It will also show that there is a qualitative difference between the times that people are born and the times that earthquakes occur and that the qualitative difference between these two types of events can be determined by astrological analysis.
I will be able to determine as specified in the original communcation between the group of charts that are of people and the group of charts that are of earthquakes. This difference can be found through the qualiative differences between the planetary geometrical aspects and their exact circumstances. Simple.
“Qualitative†in what respect? Vagueness? Stupidity? Inconsequentiality? Insignificance? Specify.
10. I feel that this test is robust and will adequately satisfy the requirements of the test as you have requested. It is a standard test that would be acceptable in other disciplines such as psychology, or engineering.
Untrue, in both respects.
This is the same kind of test that is used every day to determine whether one process is better than another, whether one group of people like jam on their toast,or another like peanut butter, or whether you can make cars faster by taking chairs away from one group of employees and leaving them with another. The test was developed to be double blind. The charts would be given to a third party. Any and all identifying marks that could gives clues as to which batch the charts belong to, people, or earthquakes, would be removed. The remaining data would be the exact geometrical planetary aspect data. This data should be identical between the two groups if there is no effect from the planets. The third party would select three hundred charts from each group. Three hundred people and three hundred earthquake charts. The two groups would then be analyzed and the differences between them tabulated. This analysis will then determine which group is people and which group is earthquakes. This would be the initial test.
It is done every day where?
11. If this test is not acceptable to you, then please explain what kind of test would be acceptable and what this would entail.
Gladly, as soon as you state what you claim you can do – clearly, understandably, in English.
The proposal was clear, but it is clear that you don't understand what you are testing.
12. If I feel then that the test you require is not scientific, or relevant to my research, then I will have to withdraw from the challenge.
Okay. Let us know.
James Randi.
===========================================
Then THIS:
I am sorry that you were offended by my email, but I thought you might like to know that I had responded to your requests. It seems that you do not accept the same kind of tests that are accepted in industry and laboratories around the world. The test is double blind and the sorting can be repeated as many times as you wish. If you don't understand the kind of scientific test that I have proposed, the same kind as is used daily throughout the world to determine the correct industrial and manufacturing processes that make the worlds factories and scientific establishments function efficiently and profitably, then I am at a loss as to what I can do to make you understand.
I will respond to your objections:
1. I will submit 500 horoscopes of earthquakes and 500 horoscopes of famous people.
Do you mean (a) dates, (b) natal charts, or (c) full predictions based on charts?
I think I made this clear in the original proposal. I will give you full horoscopes. I will ensure as much as possible that I can't know which horoscopes are of people and which are of earthquakes. Why would I be making predictions? That was not mentioned in the test. You seem to be straying away from science. It seems that you don't have a basic understanding of what astrology is, or what it is that is being tested. What the test is of is a test of a force of nature that is unexplained. The force creates changes in the rate of seismic activity on the earth. The test is not of fortune telling. I can make predictions on the rate of earthquakes and the probability of major events that will occur, as I have recently submitted to a major national newspaper, which by the way predicted the earthquake in Indonesia over the weekend. If I were to make such predictions they would be statistical probabilities. The data for earthquake rates is generally not available for several months after the events occur, it takes that long to get all the data published. The importance of earthquake prediction cannot be overstated and should not be trivialized. The object of this test as clearly stated in the original text is to determine if there can be any way to differentiate between the astrological planetary configurations that are extant when a person is born as compared to the moment when earthquakes occur. The data that would be supplied to you would be randomized and any way to identify which batch of horoscopes were of people and which were of earthquakes. This test can be repeated as often as required and in as many randomization's as would be deemed appropriate and the data can be collected by anyone, however the construction of the horoscopes of 500 earthquakes to the second and to the 10th of an arc minute of latitude and longitude, as my data bases contain, requires many hundreds of hours to complete. Birth data horoscopes of famous people can be obtained easily from a variety of sources. The source and content as far as who the people are is irrelevant. The fact remains, people are born under different planetary conditions than those which stimulate seismic activity and that this can be determined by analysis of the planetary aspects at the time of birth.
2. From these two groups 300 hundred charts will be randomly selected by a third party.
From (a) the 1000 “horoscopes†mixed together, or (b) equal numbers of each from the two groups?
This was also explained. There will be two groups, one of famous people, one of earthquakes, 500 each.
3. Neither you, nor I will know after the selection process is complete which group will be the earthquake group and which group will be the famous people group.
Which groups of what? Now you have two groups! What are these two groups?
Earthquakes and people as clearly outlined.
4. When the two groups are selected all data that is on the charts such as names, dates, locations, the positions of the planets along the zodiac will be not be made known to my self [sic] so that I will have no clues as to what dates the charts could be from, or whether the charts are drawn for locations that are suggestive of earthquakes, or of people.
(a) What two groups? (b) If the names, dates, locations, and the positions of the planets are removed, what do the “horoscopes†consist of?
It is difficult to explain to someone who does not understand the basics of astronomy or astrology.The horoscopes are the astronomical data that was extant at the moment of the occurrence of each event, being an expert in both astronomy and astrology I can tell from the positions of the planets when the event took place. Any data on the horoscopes that would give me any clue as to when the charts were cast for would be removed so that I could not determine which batch was which.
5. This could be done beforehand by simply not printing the horoscopes with this information and rather just the planetary configuration data.
But you just said that “the planetary configuration data†would be removed!
This is getting tedious. You should at least have a little understanding of what you are a skeptic of.The configuration data, the aspects and their exact circumstances are not the positions of the planets. It is sort of like having a parking lot full of cars and the planets are the cars, but the exact angular relationships between the cars tells you a lot about what kind of cars are in the parking lot. If you remove the cars, but record the angular relationship between the cars then you won't be able to immediately tell what kind of cars you have in the parking lot. If you have two parking lots full of cars. One parking lot has Lincoln Town Cars in it and the other has Minis in it. If you record the data on the angular relationships between the cars and then remove the cars, by examining the details of the angular relationships between the cars you will be able to tell which parking lot had the Minis in it and which had the town cars. The postulation is that no matter what with astrology there should be no way to tell if the parking lots were full of people, or earthquakes if you remove the cars (planets) and retain the geometrical data. It should not matter whether the parking lots were full of grasshoppers and glass shoes. It should be impossible to tell the difference between the two groups by any kind of analysis, let alone the geometry of the planets. It is physically impossible for the planets to affect earthquakes through normal gravitational means. This has been stated by such people as Carl Sagan, and EC Krupp of the Griffeths Observatory, and I agree. The fact remains, when the two groups are analyzed there is a difference between them. Therefore there must be some other force at work. This force is the force of the astrological planetary aspects, which are the foundation of astrology. Without the planetary aspects there would be no astrology. The exact angles that affect seismic activity are the same ones, and the only ones, that are used by astrologers. All other possible angles have been tested and only the ones used by astrologers have any effect. The original suggestion was to do a quick test to move on to the more important testing. The idea that you can tell the difference between the charts of people and earthquakes is categorically impossible. The fact that it can be done is unexplainable. The test could similarly be done, as I have in the past as is recorded on my web site www.temporaltheory.com/earthquakes/ the two sets of data, people and earthquakes could be separated into groups of thirty. Making ten groups of earthquakes and ten groups of people. The two separate data sets must remain separated. The individual 10 sets of each group are then analyzed and plotted. It can then be determined which group of tens sets is the earthquake group and which set is the people group. This is just standard testing. T-tests can be performed on both data set groups if required to eliminate any doubt of random errors. The t-tests will show that there is a difference between the two groups and the null hypothesis can be eliminated. This has already been done and published and can be repeated ad nauseum.
6. After the selection process is complete the two sets of modified horoscopes will be submitted to me for examination. I will determine by analyzing the geometrical configurations of the planets which group is the earthquake group and which group is the people.
If these are divided into “two sets,†I assume they’d be the “earthquake†group and the “people†group. You would have a 50% change of designating which group is which by guessing!
Which is true if it was done only once. The 500 charts of each group, people and earthquakes can be given to the third party, rerandomized and 300 from each group selected again as many times as you wish. The results will always be the same.
7. This should satisfy your requirements.
Not in your wildest dreams...
Because you were not thinking about the fullness of the test, rather just its rudimentaries.
8. It will prove that the planets do astrologically affect events on the earth, as the gravitational effect from the planets that is needed to stimulate earthquakes is orders of magnitude greater than the gravitational effect that the planets exert on the earth.
You are saying: “The gravitational effect from the planets ….. is orders of magnitude greater than the gravitational effect that the planets exert on the earth.†This makes no sense.
Bingo!
You just made the connection. The gravitational effect of the planets is not great enough to cause earthquakes. If this is true, then how do the planets stimulate earthquake production??? This is very strange, but true. The fact that the planetary aspects do affect seismic activity is the prime test here and the conditions that stimulate earthquakes are not the same ones as when people are born. That is the test.
12. If I feel then that the test you require is not scientific, or relevant to my research, then I will have to withdraw from the challenge.
Okay. Let us know.
The response given is the one that was expected. I did not expect such a vitriolic response from someone who is supposed to be an upholder of values, but what is given is given. I suppose I expected a need for clarification and I was sure that you would reject the first proposal. The scientific evidence for the basis of this research is available to anyone who cares to view it on my web site and at www.isarastrology.com/projects The test can be repeated as many times as required, but the data bases are limited as far as earthquakes are concerned. The criteria for selecting randomized earthquake data is extremely stringent and requires a rigid selection procedure. Let me know.
