Abraham Lincoln predicted own death?

[thaiboxerken]

http://www.civil-liberties.com/factoids/abevision.htm

I have checked through this website but they don't disclose when and where Lincoln supposedly made this statement. Even if he did, however, wasn't Lincoln assassinated outside of the White House?

 

[prewitt81]

Here's an article on that topic from Joe Nickell of Skeptical Inquirer:

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2843/is_3_23/ai_54600088

 

[Complexity]

I hereby predict my own death.

Sucks that I won't be able to get any credit for being right when I could still use it.

 

[thaiboxerken]

Thanks, prewitt. That article brings to light facts that make the dreams seem much less prophetic and more a product of the circumstances at the time.

 

[Rodney]

Thanks, prewitt. That article brings to light facts that make the dreams seem much less prophetic and more a product of the circumstances at the time.

Not necessarily. The problem with Joe Nickell's analysis of the two dreams is that it doesn't take into account their timing nor explore how often President Lincoln discussed (or even remembered) his dreams. The "mysterious voyage" dream took place the very night before Lincoln's assassination and the "death of the President" dream took place just a short time prior to that. Now, if throughout his life Lincoln routinely discussed his dreams and those dreams ran the gamut of topics from A to Z (including dreams of voyages and death), Nickell's analysis would have more validity. However, if it was very unusual for Lincoln to discuss his dreams and he had never previously discussed dreams of voyages and death, that would largly invalidate Nickell's analysis. So, I would suggest that Nickell needs to get hold of a few biographies of Lincoln and see what he can turn up in this area.

 

[Tompet]

http://www.civil-liberties.com/factoids/abevision.htm
Even if he did, however, wasn't Lincoln assassinated outside of the White House?

He WAS assassinated outside the White House, but laid in state in the East Room of White House for a period of days after the assassination.

 

[thaiboxerken]

Lincoln recieved death threats and several assassination attempts. I think that is why he dreamed of death. There is no need to invoke the supernatural in this case.

 

[writerdd]

I don't think it was too difficult for Lincoln to predict that he'd be assassinated.

 

[bjb]

So he dreamed about being assassinated, but he still went out to Ford's Theater? Lincoln didn't appear to believe his own prediction, so why should we? It's interesting that Martin Luther King made statements about his own mortality but no one accuses him of having supernatural powers.

 

[Admiral]

I remember once hearing a story about Caesar's wife dreaming he'd be assassinated the night before he was killed. I'm not sure how true it was...

People's memories are often distorted with regard to significant events, especially when they spend a lot of time talking about them. I can imagine that some of Lincoln's colleagues and friends were at a party years later, and in the interest of telling a good story exaggerated Lincoln's account of the dream. After all, stories about prophetic dreams are interesting- which is what makes them so common.

 

[Rodney]

So he dreamed about being assassinated, but he still went out to Ford's Theater? Lincoln didn't appear to believe his own prediction, so why should we?. . .

First, neither of Lincoln's dreams involved Ford's Theater, and so there was no specific reason for him not to go there. He might have avoided all public appearances for some period of time, but that would have been awkward and how would he have known when it was safe to go out again?

Second, the amount of credence Lincoln placed in his two dreams is not the relevant issue. Rather, the relevant issue is: What are the odds that Lincoln would have those two dreams right before his death?

 

[thaiboxerken]

What does odds have to do with anything? What are the odds that someone will win the lottery?

 

[Rodney]

What does odds have to do with anything? What are the odds that someone will win the lottery?

The odds have everything to do with making an informed judgment as to the likelihood of Lincoln having those two dreams right before his death. Again, if during his life he frequently remembered and discussed dreams, including dreams of voyages and death, it would not be that improbable that he would have discussed dreams of a voyage and death right before he died. If, on the other hand, he rarely if ever discussed dreams and never previously discussed any dream of a voyage or death, it would be highly improbable that he would have discussed dreams on those subjects right before he died.

Now, regarding winning a lottery, if all of the lottery combinations are sold, someone has to win, so there is nothing mysterious there. What would be mysterious is if someone who had never previously dreamed of lottery numbers dreamed of say, six numbers, and the next day those numbers proved to be the lottery jackpot winning combination.

 

[thaiboxerken]

Ok, how would you calculate the odds?

How are you calculating your odds for the claims you've made above?

Why would it be mysterious if someone "dreamed" of lottery numbers, played them and won? Don't people often come up with numbers and play them?

I have to think that the paranormalists would hail Lincoln's dreams of death if he was assassinated 4 years after he dreamed them let alone a few days after. After all, woos still think revelations is going to come true, even though it's about 2000 years late.

 

[bjb]

Martin Luther King's last speech alluded to the likelyhood that he would be assassinated:

http://www.afscme.org/about/kingspch.htm

The next day, he was assassinated. The odds against this happening must have been very high, so am I to believe this must have been a supernatural event?

 

[JohnboyMN]

Martin Luther King's last speech alluded to the likelyhood that he would be assassinated:

The next day, he was assassinated. The odds against this happening must have been very high, so am I to believe this must have been a supernatural event?

From the speech:

And then I got to Memphis. And some began to say the threats, or talk about the threats that were out.

Someone was making death threats. MLK heard about the threats. MLK acknowledged the threats. Someone carried out the threats.

Not much supernatural there.

ETA: I think a big difference is that many of us were alive at the same time as MLK. Many people had heard the threats. Given the social climate at the time, it was not unexpected that one idiot with a gun would carry out the threats.

 

[Rodney]

Ok, how would you calculate the odds?
How are you calculating your odds for the claims you've made above??

To make even a rough estimate of the odds of Lincoln having those two dreams shortly before his death, an examination of his life is required. Specifically, what is required is determining whether it was common or uncommon for Lincoln to discuss his dreams and, if so, how often those dreams involved voyages or death. If a careful examination of Lincoln's life reveals that it was common for him to discuss his dreams and a good number of those dreams involved voyages and death, then it would not be shocking that he discussed a dream of a voyage and a dream of the death of the President shortly before he died. If, on the other hand, there is no evidence that Lincoln ever discussed a single dream of his prior to the two dreams in question, then it would be shocking that he would decide to discuss those two dreams shortly before his death. As to the exact odds, they cannot be calculated because we do not have perfect knowledge of the number or nature of all dreams Lincoln may have discussed in his life. But that's not that big of a deal because we need be concerned only with rough orders of magnitude. And, with all that's been written about Lincoln's life, it should be possible to at least pin down whether he was in the habit of discussing his dreams. Joe Nickell didn't even attempt to resolve this issue.

Why would it be mysterious if someone "dreamed" of lottery numbers, played them and won? Don't people often come up with numbers and play them

This is a little tricky because, if, for example, 100 million people are playing "their" lucky numbers -- all of which differ from everyone else's "lucky numbers" -- and there are only 100 million combinations in the lottery, someone has to win. However, as I stated previously, it would be mysterious for someone who had never previously dreamed of lottery numbers to dream of the winning (1 in 100 million) combination the night before the lottery drawing.

 

[Rodney]

From the speech:


Someone was making death threats. MLK heard about the threats. MLK acknowledged the threats. Someone carried out the threats.

Not much supernatural there.

ETA: I think a big difference is that many of us were alive at the same time as MLK. Many people had heard the threats. Given the social climate at the time, it was not unexpected that one idiot with a gun would carry out the threats.

The analysis here would be similar to the analysis of Lincoln's dreams. Did MLK frequently mention in speeches the possibility of his early demise? If so, the fact that he mentioned that possibility in his last speech would not be surprising; if not, it would be surprising.

 

[thaiboxerken]

However, as I stated previously, it would be mysterious for someone who had never previously dreamed of lottery numbers to dream of the winning (1 in 100 million) combination the night before the lottery drawing.

I don't agree at all. No matter how common or uncommon their "dreams" of picking numbers comes, the odds of them winning the lottery are the same. This is true with Lincoln's assassination, whether Lincolned dreamed often of his death or not, it didn't change the odds of it happening. There is nothing mysterious about his dreams, it's a trivial coincidence and nothing more. People often dream of things that don't happen, do you find that mysterious?

 

[Rodney]

People often dream of things that don't happen, do you find that mysterious?

No, but that's exactly what we DON'T know about Lincoln because Nickell's analysis was so superficial. Did Lincoln frequently remember his dreams and discuss them with friends and family? If so, did most of his dreams not come true? We don't know the answer to either question.