A 20% Solution?

[Puppycow]

Eventually, by 2009 at the latest, I think the US will begin drawing down its forces in Iraq. The only question I see is what should be the end-state, complete withdrawal, or a “20% solution” whereby we keep forces in Kurdish Northern Iraq, which is the only pro-US ethnic group in Iraq.

Some of the relevant facts:

1) Northern Iraq has oil.
2) The Kurds like us.
3) The Kurds have been oppressed by their neighbors including Turkey, Iran and Saddam; we are their only conceivable ally.

It seems to me, that if the Kurds want us there as their allies, it might be mutally beneficial to ally ourselves with them, train and support them. If they declared independence, we could recognize Kurdistan. This would of course probably mean war, but there is already a de facto war. Like the former Yugoslavia, Iraq may be more stable as three separate countries.

The Sunnis have supported Saddam and Al Qaeda, and provoked this civil war, so if they lose out, they have to blame themselves. The Shia don’t like us either, so I think we should let them turn to Iran for support. Let the Sunnis turn to their Sunni neighbors. And we would support the Kurds. Then, try to come to a “grand bargain.”

 

[neutrino_cannon]

Your proposal seems vaguely plausible at least, although one should consider US commitments to Turkey as a counterweight to the likelihood of this scenario.

It's an interesting idea though.

 

[TragicMonkey]

So we'd have Israel II, another American friend surrounded by people who hate it so much they try to destroy it through open war and terrorism, and blame us for the whole mess?

Sounds like a sure recipe for peace.

 

[Kerberos]

So we'd have Israel II, another American friend surrounded by people who hate it so much they try to destroy it through open war and terrorism, and blame us for the whole mess?

Sounds like a sure recipe for peace.

Only as an extra bonus Israel II has IIRC no coastline, so if there neighbours want to destroy it they don't necessarilly have to resort to either war or terrorism. The Berlin blocade not withstanding supplying an entire country by air might not be too easy, though I won't pretend to know exactly how feasiable it would be. Also unlike Israel there is IMO no way in hell Kurdistan could stand up to any of it's neighbours in a war let alone all of them.

 

[Tricky]

I dunno. I suspect that the Kurds only "like" us because we try to protect them. They won't be our puppets. They are just as extreme in their own way as the Sunnis and Shiites.

Besides, didn't we try this already? We gave money and arms to a powerful leader of one faction so that he could "defend" himself against other factions we didn't like. His name was Saddam Hussein. Let's not do any dictator-building again.

 

[Chaos]

Also, the Kurds claim part of Turkey and Iran as Kurdistan, as well.

While I guess that anyone deciding on this 20% solution thing could not care less about what Iran thinks about them, Turkey is more or less a US ally, and supporting someone who claims part of Turkey as their territory is going to get Turkey mightily worked up, for sure. So, you would effectively be exchanging one certain, potent ally for an uncertain, weak ally.

 

[Puppycow]

Also, the Kurds claim part of Turkey and Iran as Kurdistan, as well.

While I guess that anyone deciding on this 20% solution thing could not care less about what Iran thinks about them, Turkey is more or less a US ally, and supporting someone who claims part of Turkey as their territory is going to get Turkey mightily worked up, for sure. So, you would effectively be exchanging one certain, potent ally for an uncertain, weak ally.

Well, as part of the price of recognition and independence, they would have to give up claims on Turkish and Iranian territory. If Turkey wants to be part of the EU and NATO, it should moderate its stance on the kurds as long as the kurds likewise don't provoke Turkey. The US would have to throw some bones to Turkey as part of this. As an economic incentive, an oil pipeline through Turkey could be part of the equation.

 

[Comrade Ogilvy]

So we'd have Israel II, another American friend surrounded by people who hate it so much they try to destroy it through open war and terrorism, and blame us for the whole mess?

Sounds like a sure recipe for peace.

Actually perhaps the only solution with the degenerate savages in the middle east..where else have they embraced reason in that area?

 

[Dorian Gray]

Only as an extra bonus Israel II has IIRC no coastline, so if there neighbours want to destroy it they don't necessarilly have to resort to either war or terrorism. The Berlin blocade not withstanding supplying an entire country by air might not be too easy, though I won't pretend to know exactly how feasiable it would be. Also unlike Israel there is IMO no way in hell Kurdistan could stand up to any of it's neighbours in a war let alone all of them.

Neither could Israel, until we totally set them up with a pimped out military. Plus we could Berlin the Kurds more easily because the surrounding countries aren't going to fire ICBMs at us.

Turkey reeeeeeeeeealy wants to be in the EU/EEC, so they will have to tolerate a Kurdistan if one arises.

ETA: Not one that exists outside current Iraqi borders, mind you. Like someone said, that would have to be one of the conditions. Independence for status quo on Turkish and Iranian borders. And perhaps a pipeline for lightening up on Turkish Kurds.

 

[Comrade Ogilvy]

Neither could Israel, until we totally set them up with a pimped out military. Plus we could Berlin the Kurds more easily because the surrounding countries aren't going to fire ICBMs at us.

Turkey reeeeeeeeeealy wants to be in the EU/EEC, so they will have to tolerate a Kurdistan if one arises.

ETA: Not one that exists outside current Iraqi borders, mind you. Like someone said, that would have to be one of the conditions. Independence for status quo on Turkish and Iranian borders. And perhaps a pipeline for lightening up on Turkish Kurds.

I say again....

Actually perhaps the only solution with the degenerate savages in the middle east..where else have they embraced reason in that area

 

[Tricky]

Actually perhaps the only solution with the degenerate savages in the middle east..where else have they embraced reason in that area?

Oh, you mean those degenerate savages that your Significant Other, GW Bush thought were so ready for democracy that he invaded their country to bring it about? Those degenerate savages that Republicans were so horrified were being slaughtered by Saddam that we had to save them?

Tell me, Comrade, if you have such a low opinion of the Iraqis, are you then in favor of pulling out of Iraq and letting them fight it out amongst themselves? Or are you from the Ann Coulter school of thought?

 

[Kerberos]

Neither could Israel, until we totally set them up with a pimped out military.

Actually your pimping out of the Israeli military mainly dates after the six-day war. Also Kurdistan neighbours are more powerful than Israel’s, and the most powerful of Israel’s namely Egypt is separated from Israel by a buffer zone in the form of the Sinai Dessert.

Plus we could Berlin the Kurds more easily because the surrounding countries aren't going to fire ICBMs at us.

Still not an ideal situation.

Turkey reeeeeeeeeealy wants to be in the EU/EEC, so they will have to tolerate a Kurdistan if one arises.

That is true, but they're reeeeeeeeeealy not going to like it, and if those negotiations break down or Turkeys Kurdish guerrillas continue to operate across the border (as they do now) or both they might just decide that enough is enough.

ETA: Not one that exists outside current Iraqi borders, mind you. Like someone said, that would have to be one of the conditions. Independence for status quo on Turkish and Iranian borders. And perhaps a pipeline for lightening up on Turkish Kurds.

Obviously not, though as an aside I actually heard that suggested on the forum too: That the proper solution to the war in Iraq would be to start a war with Turkey and Iran in order to secure a Kurdistan and split the rest of Iraq into a Shia part, a Sunni part and an independent city state in Baghdad under UN supervision. The mind boogles.

 

[TragicMonkey]

I say again....

Nobody cares what you say.

 

[egslim]

ETA: Not one that exists outside current Iraqi borders, mind you. Like someone said, that would have to be one of the conditions. Independence for status quo on Turkish and Iranian borders. And perhaps a pipeline for lightening up on Turkish Kurds.

The problem here is that even if you can get the Turkish government and a Kurdish government to agree on this, there will be significant Kurdish factions continuing to operate against Turkey. And then Turkey will have to respond militarily. The whole situation would be perpetually unstable.

 

[fishbob]

Nobody cares what you say.

Thanks a lot.

Now that Phil Collins song is stuck in my head.

 

[fishbob]

Nobody cares what you say.

Thanks a lot.

Now that Phil Collins song is stuck in my head.

Although it was about time that Comrade O got his very own theme song.

 

[fishbob]

Nobody cares what you say.

Thanks a lot.

Now that Phil Collins song is stuck in my head.

Although it was about time that Comrade O got his very own theme song.

 

[fishbob]

Nobody cares what you say.

Thanks a lot.

Now that Phil Collins song is stuck in my head.

Although it was about time that Comrade O got his very own theme song.

 

[Chaos]

Well, as part of the price of recognition and independence, they would have to give up claims on Turkish and Iranian territory./quote]

Not going to happen.

If Turkey wants to be part of the EU and NATO, it should moderate its stance on the kurds as long as the kurds likewise don't provoke Turkey.

Very unlikely.