70 people founded the American population

jay gw

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NEW BRUNSWICK/PISCATAWAY, N.J. – Programs on the Discovery Channel and PBS have sparked fresh interest in the prehistoric peopling of the New World. Now, for the first time, we have a realistic estimate of how many ancients made that ice age trek across the long-lost land bridge from Asia to become the first Native Americans.

Jody Hey, a professor of genetics at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, has developed a computational method that uses genetic information to create models of population divergence – where a group has split off from its ancestral population to pursue its own destiny.

In a paper appearing in the June 2005 issue of PLoS (Public Library of Science) Biology, Hey disclosed his findings. "The estimated effective size of the founding population for the New World is about 70 individuals," Hey said. "Calculations also showed that this represents approximately 1 percent of the effective size of the estimated ancestral Asian population."

"Effective size" in population genetics is often thought of as the number of adults of reproductive age. One rule of thumb is the effective size might be about one third of the 'census population size' which, in this case, comes out to about 200 people.

In addition to population size, Hey's rigorous and complex methodology also generated historical estimates of when the divergence occurred. His dates are consistent with much of the archaeological record – in the range of 12,000-14,000 years ago.

Hey focused on the genetics of Amerind-speaking populations, one of three major language groups in the New World representing the earliest migrants who extended deep into the Americas. The other groups, the more recent Athabascan speakers and the even more recent Eskimos and Aleuts, had less comprehensive genetic information available and were not included in Hey's study.

http://ur.rutgers.edu/medrel/viewArticle.html?ArticleID=4539

A question - with only 70 people founding the populations.....what about inbreeding?
 
An estimate means the exact number isn't known.

Maybe the 13,000 years ago part has something to do with it.
 
I don't think they all had to be alive at the same time.

And there could be additional common ancestors whose genome is no longer represented at all. Hey is calculating the number of genetically represented individuals.

~~ Paul
 
I believe that some parts of the US they can still trace themselves back to a single marriage of brother and sister.
 
Remember - this represents about 1/3 of the total population, including elderly and children - but, I notice, very little mention of bloodlines that may have died off between then and now.

It'd be fairly safe to expand that to about double or triple for the breeding population, which may have slowly declined over time - over 12,000 years or so. Still - it's interesting.

And inbreeding is not the problem people think it's supposed to be - otherwise, man would be doomed to die out, wouldn't it?
 
It would help a lot if you specified WHICH "american population", of course, in your thread title.
 
I notice, very little mention of bloodlines that may have died off between then and now.

How would he be able to find bloodlines that have died out?
 
Interesting but I do not have the skills to assess its accuracy. The time of divergence he claims (12,000-14,000 years ago) seems to be to be almost surely incorrect.

The Clovis site in New Mexico has an accepted age of 13,600 years ago. It seems to me that the odds against finding one of the first New Mexico sites is very high. Also it took time to migrate down to New Mexico. I have read that other people put the time at closer to 18,000-20,000 which seems more reasonable. There are also a lot of people who believe that linguistic and genetic evidence points to multiple migrations.

Note: I have no reason to vouch for this quote and some of the things in the article seem questionable to me but I will include it anyway:
University of Kansas anthropological geneticist Michael Crawford said early humans probably could not have crossed the land bridge and traveled to New Mexico in 400 years. Reaching South America by foot within 1,000 years was even less likely.

He believes that people may have entered North America across the Bering land bridge at an earlier point through multiple migrations. "Certainly the molecular genetics shows that it wasn't just a single migration," he said. Genetic research shows that "humans have been in America for at least 20,000 years."
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/03206/207283.stm

CBL
 

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