24 years ago critical thinking saved the world...

[this charming man]

http://maltastar.com/pages/msfullart.asp?an=15214

Fascinating.

Just imagine if Mr. Petrov simply reacted without thinking. Would I be here? Would any of you be here?

 

[kmortis]

Wow...just wow.

to launch an immediate all-out nuclear weapons counterattack against the United States with nuclear power, and immediately afterwards inform top political and military figures. From there, it would be taken a decision to further the military offensive on America.

The bunker was in full-alarm, with red lights all over the place as the missile was captured by the Soviet satellites via computers. Petrov wasn't convinced though. He believed that if the US attacked, they would have attacked all-out, not just sending one missile and giving a chance for them (the Soviets) to attack back.

Petrov figured something didn't make sense, as strategically, just one missile from the US would be a strategic disaster. He took some time to think and decided not to give the order a nuclear attack against America, since in his opinion, one missile didn't make sense strategically and it could easily have been a computer error.

But then, seconds later, the situation turned extremely serious. A second missile was spotted by the satellite. The pressure by the officers in the bunker to commence responsive actions against America started growing. A third missile was spotted, followed by a fourth. A couple of seconds later, a fifth one was spotted... everyone in the bunker was agitated as the USSR was under missile attack.

He had two options. Go with his instinct and dismiss the missiles as computer errors, breaking military protocol in the process or take responsive action and commence full-blown nuclear actions against America, potentially killing millions.

He decided it was a computer error, knowing deep down that if he was wrong, missiles would be raining down in Moscow in minutes.

 

[geni]

http://maltastar.com/pages/msfullart.asp?an=15214

Fascinating.

Just imagine if Mr. Petrov simply reacted without thinking. Would I be here? Would any of you be here?

Probably. Mr. Petrov did not have the authority to order a nuclear stike. The worst case senario was that he informed his superiours that the satilite data suggested that the country was under attack..

 

[Gravy]

That article is filled with factual errors.

 

[this charming man]

Probably. Mr. Petrov did not have the authority to order a nuclear stike. The worst case senario was that he informed his superiours that the satilite data suggested that the country was under attack..

That is not the way I understand it:

In the event of such an attack, the Soviet Union’s strategy protocol was to to launch an immediate all-out nuclear weapons counterattack against the United States with nuclear power, and immediately afterwards inform top political and military figures. From there, it would be taken a decision to further the military offensive on America.

(emphasis mine)

 

[this charming man]

That article is filled with factual errors.

Hi Gravy, I am sadly not familiar with these events. What is the factual account?

 

[Gravy]

Hi Gravy, I am sadly not familiar with these events. What is the factual account?

Some of the errors:

The most egregious error, which is repeated several times, is the claim that Petrov could have ordered a nuclear attack. He had no such ability, nor did his superiors in the early warning command.

"Most of today's people don't know it, but today's world as we know it, is like it is because of Stanislav Petrov." Complete nonsense.

That the "missiles" were tracked as headed for Moscow. No such trajectories were plotted.

That relations between the US and USSR were at an all time high tension. Debatable, perhaps, but the historians I've read assign that time to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

An important omission is that the new Soviet early warning satellite system in use was notoriously unreliable and prone to false alarms (although I'm not aware of other multiple false alarm reports).

The article neglects to mention that an alert had automatically gone up the channels to missile command. It wasn't just Petrov sitting there scratching his head and deciding the fate of the world. The false alarm was confirmed in five minutes, before a counterattack could have been launched in any event.

Here's a brief, more accurate account of the event.

 

[geni]

That is not the way I understand it:

You miss the point. People at the top being informed is a seperate matter. The people who could order a nuclear strike while they might not be at the top were above Petrov in the chain of command.

 

[this charming man]

Probably. Mr. Petrov did not have the authority to order a nuclear stike. The worst case senario was that he informed his superiours that the satilite data suggested that the country was under attack..

Some of the errors:

The most egregious error, which is repeated several times, is the claim that Petrov could have ordered a nuclear attack. He had no such ability, nor did his superiors in the early warning command.

"Most of today's people don't know it, but today's world as we know it, is like it is because of Stanislav Petrov." Complete nonsense.

That the "missiles" were tracked as headed for Moscow. No such trajectories were plotted.

That relations between the US and USSR were at an all time high tension. Debatable, perhaps, but the historians I've read assign that time to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

An important omission is that the new Soviet early warning satellite system in use was notoriously unreliable and prone to false alarms (although I'm not aware of other multiple false alarm reports).

The article neglects to mention that an alert had automatically gone up the channels to missile command. It wasn't just Petrov sitting there scratching his head and deciding the fate of the world. The false alarm was confirmed in five minutes, before a counterattack could have been launched in any event.

Here's a brief, more accurate account of the event.

You miss the point. People at the top being informed is a seperate matter. The people who could order a nuclear strike while they might not be at the top were above Petrov in the chain of command.

Thank you Gravy; geni I now understand you point. I was mistaken, and apparently, very misinformed.

 

[Gravy]

Thank you Gravy; geni I now understand you point. I was mistaken, and apparently, very misinformed.

No problem. I apologize for my brief earlier post. I had to take a phone call.

One thing I wasn't sure of is if the launching party can send a command to a missile to destroy it while it's on its way to the target, in case a mistake is discovered during that period. I looked it up. Apparently, to prevent enemy tampering, there is no provision to send a destruct command to a nuclear-armed ICBM.

 

[Doc Daneeka]

Apparently, to prevent enemy tampering, there is no provision to send a destruct command to a nuclear-armed ICBM.

Though I understand why that is so, it's still a very, very scary thing to think about.

 

[Loss Leader]

An interesting story. It seems that the natural desire to make it an "extraordinary" story may completely obscure the reality. That's a sad thing as now we're debating what really happened instead of doing what we should - spending a moment thinking about Petrov and all the other Russian and American military officers who dedicated their careers to avoiding war instead of mindlessly trying to "win" it.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

Sounds very similar to the Andøya missile situation, when a civilian research rocket launched by Norway caused a Russian high alert situation. The Soviets were informed in advance of all rocket launches from Norway, but this rocket was, I seem to recall, travelling faster than the usual ones and thus gave the Russians a start.

 

[Zep]

You might care to ask Hal how his Russian counterparts and their command would have been structured. Hal was a "steely-eyed missile man", and an intelligence officer too. I have no doubt he would be able to correct any of the publicly revealable misconceptions here.

 

[timhau]

If the Soviets had put together a retaliatory strike, I probably wouldn't be here. 24 years ago, I was living in Fairbanks, Alaska, not all that far from the Eielson Air Force Base. I don't know if anyone really know what kind of an arsenal that base had, but we just assumed it had nukes, and, given the base's relative proximity to the bad guys across the Bering Strait, also assumed that it would be one of the first places to go kablooey if WW3 started.

 

[latent aaaack]

Was Petrov the only one responsible for labelling it a false alarm though? Tricky's Washington Post link still makes it seem like he may have been the one primarily responsible for the info that the early warning command and the soviet leaders used to make a decision on whether to order a strike.

It may indeed have come down to Petrov's decision that the US would be unlikely to only use five missiles in a first attack and if he decided otherwise and sent the wrong info to his superiors before other ground based radar could show that no missiles had been detected rising then they may have ordered a strike if they thought a five missile attack is in the range of possible scenarios (ground based radar would not spot incoming missiles until some minutes after the satellites had).

What I'd really like to know is how long the period of time is that they allow for verifying the reports before a return strike is ordered when missiles are detected.

Some of the errors:

The most egregious error, which is repeated several times, is the claim that Petrov could have ordered a nuclear attack. He had no such ability, nor did his superiors in the early warning command.

"Most of today's people don't know it, but today's world as we know it, is like it is because of Stanislav Petrov." Complete nonsense.

That the "missiles" were tracked as headed for Moscow. No such trajectories were plotted.

That relations between the US and USSR were at an all time high tension. Debatable, perhaps, but the historians I've read assign that time to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

An important omission is that the new Soviet early warning satellite system in use was notoriously unreliable and prone to false alarms (although I'm not aware of other multiple false alarm reports).

The article neglects to mention that an alert had automatically gone up the channels to missile command. It wasn't just Petrov sitting there scratching his head and deciding the fate of the world. The false alarm was confirmed in five minutes, before a counterattack could have been launched in any event.

Here's a brief, more accurate account of the event.