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Merged 2019-nCoV / Corona virus

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The Atheist

The Grammar Tyrant
The Atheist
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This is the newly-discovered coronavirus that has caused a minor outbreak in China.

At first centred on a fish market, the virus is now known to have spread via human-human contact, just like MERS and SARS before it, both of which are also coronaviruses.

USA is the latest country to start screening incoming flights from China, which seems at least a slightly sensible move, given the human-human infection being so fast on the heels of the original outbreak, and the fact that many coronaviruses are highly contagious among human populations.

Luckily, New Zealand has hardly any visitors from China, so we aren't bothering with any extra measures at this stage.

https://www.axios.com/us-airport-sc...cdc-6318a908-99c1-47eb-99ad-c95ef7aef961.html
 
Of course it will take time to develop a vaccine, but vaccines for similar viruses already exist and I haven't heard of any obvious obstacle to creating one for the new strain. Heck, my wife just got a vaccination that's supposed to immunize against 23 different pneumonia-causing strains. (Obviously, not including the new one.)

So, even though a post like the OP is precisely the way one of my favorite life-as-we-know-it-ending nightmare scenarios begins, I don't think it's likely to happen this time.
 
Myriad said:
Of course it will take time to develop a vaccine, but vaccines for similar viruses already exist...
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Not quite right: coronaviruses have proven difficult to create vaccines against, and while a SARS vaccine exists, it's still 99% unknown as to efficacy as there hasn't been another outbreak. I'm fairly sure it's the only vaccine for any coronavirus.

We still don't have a vaccine for the common cold, which is also a coronavirus.

A vaccine is likely to be at least years away.

Myriad said:
So, even though a post like the OP is precisely the way one of my favorite life-as-we-know-it-ending nightmare scenarios begins, I don't think it's likely to happen this time.
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No, it isn't spreading fast enough to be too scary, but humans are highly susceptible to coronaviruses. It seems fairly simple maths to me that if the chances of a full-blown human pandemic are 1:n.

Whatever number n is, it's getting divided each time an outbreak like this comes along. With a human population approaching 8 billion and more and more people being squeezed into ever-decreasing spaces, often at the same time as animals that host zoonotic disease, the chances of it happening are clearly increasing.
 
The Atheist said:
Not quite right: coronaviruses have proven difficult to create vaccines against, and while a SARS vaccine exists, it's still 99% unknown as to efficacy as there hasn't been another outbreak. I'm fairly sure it's the only vaccine for any coronavirus.

We still don't have a vaccine for the common cold, which is also a coronavirus.....
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The common cold is caused by about 200 different microorganisms.

Some are corona viruses, but many are rhinoviruses and a whole slew of others.


So far this needs cautious observation. There are lots of pneumonia cases, but the fatality rate is very low.

There's a more dangerous corona virus (MERS Co-V) that has been simmering in the Middle East for years. Camels and camel milk are one source. If this one becomes very contagious from person to person it will be worse.
 
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My girlfriend took a group of about 30 people to India, from China, a few weeks ago. On arrival they all started getting flu like symptoms and according to her 90% of the group came down with it. It also spread through the local Indian community. My guess is it originated with someone on their flight.

Not sure if it's the same thing, but I was a little worried. They've all recovered though.
 
Roboramma said:
My girlfriend took a group of about 30 people to India, from China, a few weeks ago. On arrival they all started getting flu like symptoms and according to her 90% of the group came down with it. It also spread through the local Indian community. My guess is it originated with someone on their flight.

Not sure if it's the same thing, but I was a little worried. They've all recovered though.
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It's not the same thing.
 
And in a surprise to absolutely nobody Chinese authorities may have underestimated the number of cases exponentially. They say 45, Imperial College London says probably 1700.

"I am substantially more concerned than I was a week ago," disease outbreak scientist, Prof Neil Ferguson, said.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51148303

I can't say I'm sorry it's school holidays for another fortnight yet, given that my boy attends a school with 40% Chinese kids, many of whom travel to & from China frequently.
 
The Atheist said:
And in a surprise to absolutely nobody Chinese authorities may have underestimated the number of cases exponentially. They say 45, Imperial College London says probably 1700.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51148303

I can't say I'm sorry it's school holidays for another fortnight yet, given that my boy attends a school with 40% Chinese kids, many of whom travel to & from China frequently.
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This might ally some of your fears:

NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (07): CHINA (HUBEI), THAILAND ex CHINA, JAPAN ex CHINA, WHO
In this update:
[1] Thailand ex China, 2nd case - Thai MOPH
[2] Japan ex China, more details, WHO DON 17 Jan 2020
[3] Japan ex China WHO 16 Jan 2020
[4] Wuhan City, 4 new cases
[5] USA/CDC will begin screening - media report
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ex China (or any other country) means they were diagnosed in one country but contracted it in China (or which other country the source was).

It's really nothing like the SARS scare. Don't get me started on why.


BTW, I'm not surprised China is under reporting either. With SARS it was the local officials that wanted to save face and not have a problem out of their control. Eventually Beijing cracked down.
 
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The Atheist said:
Yet, with the virus this one's most closely related to being SARS and with numbers increasing exponentially, it might be a lot like SARS.

Looks to me like this one is well and truly out of the bag.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51171035
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Oh for pity's sake. There have been 3 deaths now. :rolleyes:

The first word about SARS started as a rumor that hundreds of health care workers were dying of pneumonia spreading from patients in a hospital in Guangdong Province in China. The rumors continued for about a month before official word got out to international public health authorities.

Nine people that used an elevator in Hong Kong spread the virus around the world. Not only did an emergency worker in Canada die, so did his mother whom he exposed.

One hospital in Hong Kong was sealed off, quarantining staff and patients alike.


Now tell me how some new coronavirus is the same.


Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)

BTW, Since September 2012, WHO has been notified of 2494 laboratory-confirmed cases of infection with MERS-CoV and 858 MERS-CoV associated deaths have occurred.

That's a lot more than 3 deaths.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/en/
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
Now tell me how some new coronavirus is the same.
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Is there any need to be dishonest?

You quoted my phrase "it might be a lot like SARS" and then shift the goalpost from "a lot like" to "the same".

Given the fact that this is far earlier in the picture than the outbreaks of either SARS or MERS, I think it's too early to say what it's going to end up like with any certainty at all.

Although I note the doctors who sequenced the genome made the comment that its closest relation is the SARS virus. That, with similar but supposedly milder symptoms, makes it a lot like SARS already.

Maybe take a breath or two next time.
 
Corona Virus

A new and deadly virus called the corona virus has appeared in China. It looks like China has understated the seriousness of it and it is highly infectious. I don't think it will be going all 12 Monkeys on us, though.
 
Duplicate thread unless you want this one to be about the reliability of information coming out of China.

I have some great stories about how China and India fumbled the SARS pandemic information too.
 
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One of my favorite movies is Contagion.

Because every bit of it is believable.
 
The Atheist said:
Is there any need to be dishonest?

You quoted my phrase "it might be a lot like SARS" and then shift the goalpost from "a lot like" to "the same".

Given the fact that this is far earlier in the picture than the outbreaks of either SARS or MERS, I think it's too early to say what it's going to end up like with any certainty at all.

Although I note the doctors who sequenced the genome made the comment that its closest relation is the SARS virus. That, with similar but supposedly milder symptoms, makes it a lot like SARS already.

Maybe take a breath or two next time.
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I'm not being dishonest. Unless you simply mean it's from the corona virus family, it is not like SARS for a dozen reasons.

I've seen this story reported by the scare-mongering media all day long. Be afraid, be very afraid! China is covering up a deadly epidemic! Run!

This is a skeptics forum. We should be more reasonable about these kind of stories.

Influenza is thousands of time more deadly and more easily spread.


Now, can we discuss this reasonably without the hype?

It's not far earlier in the picture. SARS was a mysterious pneumonia killing health care workers before the news media even caught wind of it. I'll see if I can dig up some of those initial warnings.
 
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