nate silver

The morning of Election Day, it was about 75% chance for Mrs. Clinton, 25% for Mr. Trump? Da Hell Nate?!

It currently gives Hillary an 80.6% chance at winning. For comparison, they gave Obama a 61.8% chance at reelection in June 2012, and that got up to over 90% by election day. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

The Republicans are now rated a slight favorite to win control of the Senate in November: No surprise, many of his former acolytes on the Left think Silver's lost his touch. Paul Krugman: Balloon Juice seems to have inhaled nitrous oxide: PoliticsUSA (from a liberal bent) sees a different...

There was a lot of hating and criticizing of Nate Silver of the 538 blog by Republican critics before the election, but looking at the results and comparing them to his forecast, I don't see how he could have been any righter than he was. This funky thing shows the probability of Obama getting...

I noticed a few weeks ago that Real Clear Politics is now picking up data from Gravis Marketing. This is simply a name I'd never encountered before, but what really caught my eye is that they're always right out there with Rasmussen in having the GOP doing considerably better than what other...

I know nothing about the statistical methods involved here, but here's the story: Kos: Poll data was fraudulent

I think this is a question that gets too easily answered on both ends of the spectrum, and the real information out there is just not a slam dunk for either end to claim as absolute. But before I get into it I'd like to suggest watching this TED presentation by Nate Silver on the effects of...