intrade

Where do you think he will bottom out?

Interesting bit of news: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/12/22/opinion/gergen-obama-resurgence/index.html Why is this payroll tax saga proving to be a vote winner for Obama, and how does he build on that for 2012?

Right now the market gives a 58% chance of an Obama re-election; http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474 I know these markets tend to be very accurate a few months out, but has it been studied how accurate they are 18 months out?

Okay, sooner or later someone had to start a thread on this, so here it is. Personally, I prefer prediction markets over polls any day (I'll explain why if you're curious), and one of the oldest & most respected prediction markets has recently opened up on the question of the 2010 Congressional...