• Due to ongoing issues caused by Search, it has been temporarily disabled
  • Please excuse the mess, we're moving the furniture and restructuring the forum categories
  • You may need to edit your signatures.

    When we moved to Xenfora some of the signature options didn't come over. In the old software signatures were limited by a character limit, on Xenfora there are more options and there is a character number and number of lines limit. I've set maximum number of lines to 4 and unlimited characters.

Why NOT one BILLION?

Guido47

New Blood
G
Joined
Mar 17, 2012
Messages
2
Dear group,

I only joined this "Mob" 'cos I have always respected Randie and am a Sceptic. And I had to join to comment :-(

Well, I have been aware of the 1 Million Dollar challenge for some time now.

In a "psychic" or was it more likely a "drunk" moment, I realized that
one Mill. was almost nothing nowerdays.

I am not sure what the insurance industry might charge, but may I recommend that the prize be bumped up to "A BILLION DOLLARS".
Still a sure bet!

That will surely get the worlds attention (for a few seconds at least)
and I am prepared to donate 100 Dollars to the cause, when and if my idea
is implimented.

Guido.
 
Welcome! :)

They need to have the money, and collecting one billion dollars wouldn't be easy.

Also, the odds of success from chance might need to be changed, possibly? A lot more people would probably want to "try their luck", and because of that the challenge would need to be harder to make up for that increased likelihood of somebody getting a false positive based on chance.
 
Last edited:
Why not one billion?

Because Randi did not have one billion.

If you do, feel free to start your own challenge.
 
Lanzy said:
Give bill gates a call, maybe he will put it up.
Click to expand...

As much as I like the JREF challenge and think it's important, I think the things Bill Gates is doing with his money are more important. I wouldn't want him to spend a billion on this.
 
Guido47 said:
I am not sure what the insurance industry might charge, but may I recommend that the prize be bumped up to "A BILLION DOLLARS".
Click to expand...


The $1 Million prize is not an insured longshot like a hole-in-one car during a golf tournament. The Million is a real physical collection of securities being held in escrow here.
 
Guido47 said:
Dear group,

I only joined this "Mob" 'cos I have always respected Randie and am a Sceptic. And I had to join to comment :-(

Well, I have been aware of the 1 Million Dollar challenge for some time now.

In a "psychic" or was it more likely a "drunk" moment, I realized that
one Mill. was almost nothing nowerdays.

I am not sure what the insurance industry might charge, but may I recommend that the prize be bumped up to "A BILLION DOLLARS".
Still a sure bet!

That will surely get the worlds attention (for a few seconds at least)
and I am prepared to donate 100 Dollars to the cause, when and if my idea
is implimented.

Guido.
Click to expand...
Do you know why there can be a million dollar challenge? If so, you should know why a billion dollar challenge is unlikely.
 
Thanks for all your quick responses,

Even if some were a bit "catty".:p

Why does the million dollar challenge have to be in 'cash'?

What's wrong with a '...hole in one insurance..." approach.

Yes, Bill Gates does have better things to do with his money, which he does do! and "...I tips me hat to the man..."

Sure 'false positives' are always a problem.
That's why we have Statisticians. (like my late Dad)

Surely that (science & mathematics) is why we do believe in what we do.

Guido.
 
Guido47 said:
Thanks for all your quick responses,

Even if some were a bit "catty".:p

Why does the million dollar challenge have to be in 'cash'?

What's wrong with a '...hole in one insurance..." approach.

Yes, Bill Gates does have better things to do with his money, which he does do! and "...I tips me hat to the man..."

Sure 'false positives' are always a problem.
That's why we have Statisticians. (like my late Dad)

Surely that (science & mathematics) is why we do believe in what we do.

Guido.
Click to expand...

If it was insurance, the JREF would have to pay premiums. I can't even imagine how high they would be on a 1 billion dollar prize.

The way the 1 million is structured probably earns intrest. The insurance path would be a constant cost on a prize that is unlikely to be paid out.
 
ronin688 said:
If it was insurance, the JREF would have to pay premiums. I can't even imagine how high they would be on a 1 billion dollar prize.

The way the 1 million is structured probably earns intrest. The insurance path would be a constant cost on a prize that is unlikely to be paid out.
Click to expand...
They do earn interest on the million dollars, and take that extra money out to pay for things.
 
An insurance bet for a billion would be hugely expensive. Even if some insurer would be very idealistic, the cost could not be lower than the current interest rate (because at the end of the day, insurance money are deposited in some form, somewhere) which would be 2-3% per annum (and that is just currently).

2-3% of a billion is 20-30 million, per year.

Does that answer your question, Guido47?

Hans
 
Guido47 said:
Why does the million dollar challenge have to be in 'cash'?
Click to expand...

It does not necessarily have to, however, that works best to convince people that the money is actually available. There are enough people already claiming "the money is not actually there".

Hans
 
MRC_Hans said:
An insurance bet for a billion would be hugely expensive. Even if some insurer would be very idealistic, the cost could not be lower than the current interest rate (because at the end of the day, insurance money are deposited in some form, somewhere) which would be 2-3% per annum (and that is just currently).

2-3% of a billion is 20-30 million, per year.

Does that answer your question, Guido47?

Hans
Click to expand...

Not sure this is how it would work in reality but another issue would be that if the prize was an insured risk rather than the JREF's actual money then it would be the insurance company who would be responsible for agreeing a protocol and accepting the risk of any challenge applicant, which I think would impact on the credibility and accessibility of the challenge.
 
Last of the Fraggles said:
Not sure this is how it would work in reality but another issue would be that if the prize was an insured risk rather than the JREF's actual money then it would be the insurance company who would be responsible for agreeing a protocol and accepting the risk of any challenge applicant, which I think would impact on the credibility and accessibility of the challenge.
Click to expand...

Also a good point.

.... At least, that would make it absolutely certain that nobody ever von. ;)

Hans
 
MRC_Hans said:
An insurance bet for a billion would be hugely expensive. Even if some insurer would be very idealistic, the cost could not be lower than the current interest rate (because at the end of the day, insurance money are deposited in some form, somewhere) which would be 2-3% per annum (and that is just currently).

2-3% of a billion is 20-30 million, per year.

Does that answer your question, Guido47?

Hans
Click to expand...

I'm sure it's a moot point but that isn't how an insurance premium is derived.
 
Guido47 said:
Thanks for all your quick responses,

Even if some were a bit "catty".:p

Why does the million dollar challenge have to be in 'cash'?

What's wrong with a '...hole in one insurance..." approach.

Guido.
Click to expand...

Because you'd have to pay a premium every year, which would be money to the insurance company and not to the JREF, which needs every penny it can get.
 
Some day Randi won't be with us, and, though his choices to continue things are solid, I can't help but worry about competency, or lack thereof, creep. A bigger pot will also draw more concerted efforts at fraud, both from applicants (which goes without saying) but also internally, either due to the seductiveness of the amounts or in a 5th column sort of way.

Randi got into this because of the incompetency of scientists testing psychics, pointing out how you need good magicians to watch for known methods of trickery. Will this always be the case?
 
Last edited:
MRC_Hans said:
An insurance bet for a billion would be hugely expensive. Even if some insurer would be very idealistic, the cost could not be lower than the current interest rate (because at the end of the day, insurance money are deposited in some form, somewhere) which would be 2-3% per annum (and that is just currently).

2-3% of a billion is 20-30 million, per year.

Hans
Click to expand...
This small piece of the overall answer is wrong. The money can be invested in a liquid asset, so interest is not a cost.
 
In the past, the JREF has considered increasing the size of the fund (though not to one billion!) and covering it via insurance.
 
Guido47 said:
Dear group,

In a "psychic" or was it more likely a "drunk" moment, I realized that
one Mill. was almost nothing nowerdays.

I am not sure what the insurance industry might charge, but may I recommend that the prize be bumped up to "A BILLION DOLLARS".
Still a sure bet!

Guido.
Click to expand...

I'll tell you why this is not feasible for 1/10 of almost nothing.
 
I think, given the comparatively small number of people who even get as far as the pre-test and the vanishingly small chance that anyone would actually win, the challenge prize could be increased to $5 million or $10 million and insured. I'm sure they've priced coverage for that. Maybe in a few more years, if inflation kicks up again, they'll take another look at it.
 
Startz said:
This small piece of the overall answer is wrong. The money can be invested in a liquid asset, so interest is not a cost.
Click to expand...

I know there is no direct link to the interest rate. However, short of acually negotiating with an insurance company, this is probably the best way to get a ball-park figure of the cost.

My point is, if you lend a billion$, you get at least the general interest rate (if you have a billion to invest, you can far do better than that, actually), and in the end you'll get your billion back. It is common sense that you would not risk a billion for less, even if it is a small risk. Plus, an insurance company has to buy backing for its liabilities, the price of which will also reflect the interest rate, somehow.

Hans
 
MRC_Hans said:
I know there is no direct link to the interest rate. However, short of acually negotiating with an insurance company, this is probably the best way to get a ball-park figure of the cost.

My point is, if you lend a billion$, you get at least the general interest rate (if you have a billion to invest, you can far do better than that, actually), and in the end you'll get your billion back. It is common sense that you would not risk a billion for less, even if it is a small risk. Plus, an insurance company has to buy backing for its liabilities, the price of which will also reflect the interest rate, somehow.

Hans
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure this is wrong (I agree with your other points). Think of it this way. The insurance company has to borrow the billion dollars to post and it has to pay interest on it. But it doesn't leave the billion sitting in a bank vault. As with the real million, the money is invested in something safe and liquid. The interest on that investment offsets the cost of borrowing the money, so it's a wash.

Suppose the donor of the MDC prize instead of generously letting JREF keep all the earnings had said I'll post a prize, but you have to send me the interest. Then the prize wouldn't have cost the donor anything. It would have just been another investment vehicle.
 
My point was that even at a very low premium, it would still be very costly.

Quite another point is that one million should be more than enough. After all, if you really have supernatural powers that are useful for anything, one million bucks is pocket money. Anyway, for most, the fame and recognition should be worth more than money.

So the purpose of the MDC is simply that, whenever someone says, "I can [whatever]", the JREF can say, "a million bucks says you can't!" - And if you can, there is really no sensible excuse not to take the challenge.

For all that, a million is quite enough.

Hans
 
Last edited:
A billion dollars is a lot of money, much more than one million. One million seconds in 10 days. One billion seconds in 32 years. I doubt the JREF can easily cough that up.
 
As John Astor said, the first million is the hardest. Randi's just offering to help people over the hump.
 
MRC_Hans said:
An insurance bet for a billion would be hugely expensive. Even if some insurer would be very idealistic, the cost could not be lower than the current interest rate (because at the end of the day, insurance money are deposited in some form, somewhere) which would be 2-3% per annum (and that is just currently).

2-3% of a billion is 20-30 million, per year.

Does that answer your question, Guido47?

Hans
Click to expand...

Plus the marginal benefit would be very small compared to the marginal cost. Even if you get twice as much publicity for the JREF, at 1000 times the cost, it's not worth it. People find it very hard to intuitively grasp the scale of numbers this large. Hence "a billion" sounds only marginally more impressive than "a million," not 1000 times more impressive.
 
Gazpacho said:
As John Astor said, the first million is the hardest. Randi's just offering to help people over the hump.
Click to expand...

Yeah, myself, I'm saving up to be a multi-millionaire. I recently started on my second million.


The first one didn't really come to anything, but one must keep trying.;)


Hans
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom