US Threat to 'Take back' the Panama Canal

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US President Trump pledged in his inauguration speech to 'take back' the Panama Canal. From Reuters:

WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Newly sworn-in President Donald Trump vowed on Monday that the United States would take back the Panama Canal as he delivered an inauguration speech in which he invoked the 19th century expansionist doctrine of "Manifest Destiny" in laying out plans for space exploration.
Doubling down on his pre-inauguration threat to reimpose U.S. control over the canal, Trump again accused Panama of breaking the promises it made for the final transfer of the strategic waterway in 1999 and of ceding its operation to China - claims that the Panamanian government has vehemently denied.
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Here's what José Mulino, President of the Republic of Panama had to say in response:

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Fact check: 38,000 Americans did not die, as claimed by Trump. Many were overseas workers. US workers were on a 'gold' wage rate; those largely from the Caribbean on a lower one.

How true is it that China has taken control of it, as Trump claims?
Panama is a founding member of the Alliance for the Development in Democracy (ADD) and the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity (APEP). Panama also serves as President Pro Tempore of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Marine Corridor (CMAR) and Co-Chair of the Economic and Health Dialogue of the Americas (EHA).Bilateral Representation Principal U. S. embassy officials are listed in the Department’s Key Officers List.Panama maintains an embassy in the United States at 2862 McGill Terrace, NW, Washington, DCIf Panama has allowed China to control or operate any function of the canal…they may be in violation of agreements made with the Americas and other countries for the trade route.
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Right now, despite significant domestic and international opposition, the contract with China’s Hutchinson Ports was renewed for another 25 years. Chinese companies such as Landbridge Group and the Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings now operate ports at both ends of the canal. This presence raises concerns about potential dual-use infrastructure and strategic maneuvering. @diane Jennings on X-twitter
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Over to you: can the US take back the Panama Canal and if so, how? Has the Republic of Panama violated the terms of agreement?
 
Quite seriously they should get ready to destroy the canal the second the USA invades them. Blow it to smithereens.
 
Darat said:
Quite seriously they should get ready to destroy the canal the second the USA invades them. Blow it to smithereens.
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Put the locks out of service. Fixing them would be very time and resource consuming but would be doable as and when Panama resumed control.
 
The Don said:
Put the locks out of service. Fixing them would be very time and resource consuming but would be doable as and when Panama resumed control.
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I suspect that if Panama destroyed the locks, they would never resume control again. The US would take over, rebuild and widen, and never ever return control over the canal to Panama.
 
It's running low on water, limiting traffic. There are also plans to provide alternatives in other countries long term.
 
catsmate said:
Talk to the Chinese about military assistance.
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Aaaahahahahaha seriously?

This wouldn't be Ukraine, begging for NATO's table scraps. This would be the US military industrial complex in all its glory, on home ground.

And that's before we get to the part where the US and China both have a vested interest in keeping the Canal open. China has nothing to lose, by letting the US take over day to day operations.
 
arthwollipot said:
Panama is the US military's home ground?
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The entire western hemisphere is the US Navy's home ground (well, home waters). Push came to shove, Chinese military support would be sent to Davy Jones' Locker long before they ever made landfall.

ETA: And really, this close to home, the USAF alone could sort it out, flying from CONUS bases.
 
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theprestige said:
The entire western hemisphere is the US Navy's home ground (well, home waters). Push came to shove, Chinese military support would be sent to Davy Jones' Locker long before they ever made landfall.

ETA: And really, this close to home, the USAF alone could sort it out, flying from CONUS bases.
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Do you believe that the US would literally go to war against China over this?
 
Maybe the question should be "should the US go to war?" I think, with Trump, war with China is a definite possibility.
 
arthwollipot said:
Do you believe that the US would literally go to war against China over this?
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I literally believe it would never come to that, because China cannot project that kind of power into the western hemisphere, and it's in their best interest to simply let the US take over day to day operation of the Canal.

Do you literally believe that China would go to war with the US over this?

Just because China could (absent the pax americana navalis) spank Australia, that doesn't mean they could do the same to that Pax Americana itself.
 
theprestige said:
I literally believe it would never come to that, because China cannot project that kind of power into the western hemisphere, and it's in their best interest to simply let the US take over day to day operation of the Canal.

Do you literally believe that China would go to war with the US over this?

Just because China could (absent the pax americana navalis) spank Australia, that doesn't mean they could do the same to that Pax Americana itself.
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Because America is special. America is the only thing standing between peace and chaos. Nobody can resist the might of the Evil Empire without help from America! Because America is just the ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ best at everything.

Give me a ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ break. Pax Americana? ◊◊◊◊ off. Take your ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ Pax Americana to ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ Ukraine.
 
I am not seeing any threat to Panama from CHina...and I have a massive mistrust of CHina.
ANyway, if we try a military takeover the Panamanian goverment could with just a few pounds of plastic explosive in the right place,pretty much wreck the locks on the canal.
 
arthwollipot said:
Because America is special. America is the only thing standing between peace and chaos. Nobody can resist the might of the Evil Empire without help from America! Because America is just the ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ best at everything.

Give me a ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ break. Pax Americana? ◊◊◊◊ off. Take your ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ Pax Americana to ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ Ukraine.
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Calm down. It's just geography. The Pacific's a pretty big ocean, and attenuates the strength of anybody reaching over it, in either direction.
 
TragicMonkey said:
Calm down. It's just geography. The Pacific's a pretty big ocean, and attenuates the strength of anybody reaching over it, in either direction.
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THe US could project force across the Pacific a lot easier then China could. but it would be expensive.
CHina, for all it's naval build up is nowhere near a "blue water " navy.-
 
Darat said:
Quite seriously they should get ready to destroy the canal the second the USA invades them. Blow it to smithereens.
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Would not even be that hard. Just wreck the locks..which you do with a few pounds of well placed plastc explosive...and the Canal would be jusells for along time.
 
theprestige said:
I suspect that if Panama destroyed the locks, they would never resume control again. The US would take over, rebuild and widen, and never ever return control over the canal to Panama.
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The canal is too long to protect from the guerilla style insurgency that would immediately trigger. The result would be lots of US soldiers lives and a major cost for literally no gain as the canal would be useless. I see Trump and his cronies stupid enough to do so (especially with the rubber stamp GOP he has now), but it would just be another Vietnam/Iraq/Afghanistan, ie a failure in the long run.
 
Trump being Trump, just won't pay the bills. he'll send US navy vessels through the canal and not pay. if Panama refuses to let them through for free, well that'll be seen as an anti-US action and sanctions will follow, perhaps the US will just blockade the canal until the US gets free passage for naval vessels. Even if all nations naval vessels transited for free it wouldn't be a big loss for Panama, the only country to significantly gain would be the US. It would be a big win for Trump.
 
arthwollipot said:
Do you believe that the US would literally go to war against China over this?
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Can we identify exactly what the "this" is, which anyone might consider war over? Resentment at China using stuff America built?

China's "Belt and Road" initiative has seen it pour investment into infrastructure projects in multiple countries. China's cash-rich because it manufactures for the world, and investing in projects which help it ship its exports while developing good relations with the countries it's investing in just makes sense. I gather it's invested heavily in port infrastructure at both ends of the Panama Canal. I even heard suggestions of its building parallel new sections of larger canal, though I don't know if that's going ahead.

Now Trump says China "operates" the canal, but Panama says no it doesn't. So what's this threat of war about? I mean, I get that the canal has been a major military asset for the US in time of war, but realistically we're pretty much past the era of battleships these days. So, what's at issue?
 
Lukraak_Sisser said:
The canal is too long to protect from the guerilla style insurgency that would immediately trigger. The result would be lots of US soldiers lives and a major cost for literally no gain as the canal would be useless. I see Trump and his cronies stupid enough to do so (especially with the rubber stamp GOP he has now), but it would just be another Vietnam/Iraq/Afghanistan, ie a failure in the long run.
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Ukraine is currently holding a much longer line against the world's largest and most well equipped guerrilla insurgency.
 
Not to mention, at the moment at least the US is very squeamish about US soldiers dying, whereas Russia is... not
 
Lukraak_Sisser said:
And how many large and slow cargo ships are passing that front line along it's entire length on a daily basis?
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You mean the ones that park in harbors at either end until they're cleared to transit the canal? There's not a lot of places in Panama for insurgents to hide on either side of the canal, and launch infrastructure attacks without being detected and destroyed from the air.

And there's not a lot of hope for an insurgent commando team to stow away aboard a ship undetected. Where are all these insurgents supposedly coming from, anyway?
Lukraak_Sisser said:
Not to mention, at the moment at least the US is very squeamish about US soldiers dying, whereas Russia is... not
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I suspect most LATAM insurgent commanders are also much more squeamish about throwing away their troops than are most Russian mobik commanders.
 
Lukraak_Sisser said:
And how many large and slow cargo ships are passing that front line along it's entire length on a daily basis?
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Well, not so many ships, but there were commercial airliners overflying the line, and that only stopped when Russia's trigger happy Little Green Men shot one down.
 
If I were in charge of Panama (I'm not) I'd just announce we're addressing American concerns by reconsidering canal fees. Then in a couple of weeks announce we're giving US ships a discount from their previous fees. And not change the fees in the slightest because all Trump cares about is what's said, not what happens. In fact I'd stealthily raise the fees incrementally over time, just for the inconvenience of having to deal with that poultroon.
 
theprestige said:
Aaaahahahahaha seriously?

This wouldn't be Ukraine, begging for NATO's table scraps. This would be the US military industrial complex in all its glory, on home ground.

And that's before we get to the part where the US and China both have a vested interest in keeping the Canal open. China has nothing to lose, by letting the US take over day to day operations.
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When did Panama become part of the USA?
 
I would sink a ship in every lock and blow all the gates.

Tell them it's theirs.

It would take the US years to get it running again if Trump and his cronies are in charge.
 
Remember when "conservatives" in the forum used to sound reasonable? Trump changed all that. Did they change or did they realize that they could let the kkkrazy show?
 
Mojo said:
That's OK, Donnie will fix that by stopping the Californians protecting fish.
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There is loads of water available from canada for that just like for the LA fires. But liberal policies are just dumping it in the ocean.
 
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