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Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 9

Waltz: "The president has decided to lift the pause on aid and our security assistance to Ukraine going forward. And that's effectively immediately."
 
If Trump really does give intelligence and weapons to Ukraine, i will be kinda shocked. Putin must have really pissed him off.
 
The damage has been done as Ukraine has been pushed out of the Kursk Oblast. Now Ukraine has a weaker negotiating position just as Donnie wants.
 
www.kyivpost.com

New Intel Shows Russian Officials Believe Trump Has Already Agreed to Kremlin’s ‘Peace Plan’ to End War in Ukraine

Kyiv Post exclusive: The Trump White House is moving toward accepting key Russian demands, emboldening the Kremlin as it seeks to undermine Zelensky and shape the war’s end on Moscow’s terms.
www.kyivpost.com www.kyivpost.com

The tl;dr is that this is the Russian four-point "peace" plan (actually a "victory" plan):

  1. Terminating Western military support – Moscow insists that all arms shipments, intelligence-sharing, and training for Ukraine’s forces end. It remains unclear whether this demand applies only to US assistance or to European aid as well.
  2. Recognizing Russian-controlled territories – Russia seeks international recognition of Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, “Donetsk People’s Republic,” and “Luhansk People’s Republic” as Russian territory. In September 2022, Russia formally incorporated the regions into its constitution.
  3. Reinstating the prominence of Russian culture, language, and church – Moscow wants to restore the prominent status of Russian culture in Ukraine by re-centering the Russian language, Russian media, and the Russian Orthodox Church in everyday life – steps that would effectively roll back the Ukraine’s post-2014 policies aimed at reducing Russian influence.
  4. Returning to the terms of the Istanbul Protocol Draft Agreement – The Kremlin is pushing for “a return to the terms of the Istanbul agreement on all issues.” The Istanbul Protocol Draft Agreement was a set of draft peace proposals negotiated between Ukraine and Russia in March 2022, which included discussions regarding Ukraine’s neutrality, security guarantees, and limitations on its military in exchange for Russian troop withdrawals. The return to Istanbul would be, in the eyes of many experts, unfavorable to Ukraine’s interests.
 
And just to show where they stand, the orcs have launched air raids on Kyiv and Kharkiv.
 
Tero said:
Putin has never signed any peace treaties, I think. Am I right?
Click to expand...
I don’t know, but he won a war with Georgia without occupying the entire country. It is possible that the war ended with a peace treaty.

Putin’s view of a peace treaty is something you force upon another country, and his demands that Ukraine should cede even more land that the Russians have not yet taken, Ukraine be more or less demilitarised, and left without allies is exactly the kind of peace that would be acceptable for him. And of course, the treaty can be broken when he is ready.
 
'tis a pity that the period US satellite companies were ordered to cease working with Ukraine, just happened to overlap with Putin's visit to Kursk.

I'd imagine that any whiff of such a visit would lead to a close inspection of satelitte imagery with a view to carpet bombing a given area.
 
What a surprise

In comments to Russian media this morning, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov outlines Russia's position on the 30-day ceasefire proposal.

In a nutshell, Ushakov rejects it, saying it would amount to nothing more than a temporary respite for the Ukrainian military and a chance for it to regroup.

He also says that Russia is seeking a "long-term peace settlement in Ukraine that takes into account Moscow's interests and concerns", and adds that a "normal exchange of opinions" between Russia and the US is "taking place in a calm manner".

Ushakov also says the US understands that Ukraine's membership of Nato is out of the question.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine war live updates: Putin aide dismisses short-term ceasefire with Ukraine as Trump's envoy in Moscow for talks

Yuri Ushakov says Russia is seeking a "long-term peace settlement in Ukraine that takes into account Moscow's interests and concerns".
www.bbc.co.uk
 
U.S. Special Representative Kellogg has been removed from peace negotiations at the Kremlin’s request due to a “too pro-Ukrainian stance.” according to NBC News

So, I presume that Ukraine can also request removal of some people from U.S. administration due to a “too pro-russian stance.” I have a candidate in mind.
 
I can imagine the Russians objecting to Kellog, as he's actually seen what they've been doing in Ukraine and might be dangerously objective. I'm more fascinated by the suggestion that Trump just caved in and removed him. Is there any point at which Trump stands up for himself or his people?
 
Jack by the hedge said:
I can imagine the Russians objecting to Kellog, as he's actually seen what they've been doing in Ukraine and might be dangerously objective. I'm more fascinated by the suggestion that Trump just caved in and removed him. Is there any point at which Trump stands up for himself or his people?
Click to expand...
Well, he standing up for Putin of course, and he'll stand up for himself if there's a buck in it.
 
Trump on the talks with Russia

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

We had very good and productive discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia yesterday, and there is a very good chance that this horrible, bloody war can finally come to an end - BUT, AT THIS VERY MOMENT, THOUSANDS OF UKRAINIAN TROOPS ARE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY THE RUSSIAN MILITARY, AND IN A VERY BAD AND VULNERABLE POSITION. I have strongly requested to President Putin that their lives be spared. This would be a horrible massacre, one not seen since World War II. God bless them all!!!
Click to expand...
 
There’s been some debate on identifying weapons here. Bellingcat discord session on identifying ordnance for those interested

Bellingcat (@Bellingcat@mstdn.social)

This Thursday the team behind the Open Source Munitions Portal, from @airwars@beta.birdsite.live and Armament Research Services (ARES), will be sharing how you can use their free tool to identify munitions. Join us on Discord at 5pm CET/12pm EDT: https://discord.gg/3u4SVNuP?event=1348681170598105179
mstdn.social mstdn.social
 
Trump's attitude to Putin and general crack pottery by Fiona Hill who worked with Trump during his previous debacle. Article from 2021.
Trump took at face value rumors that Putin was the richest man in the world and told close associates that he admired Putin for his presumed wealth and for the way he ran Russia as if it were his own private company. As Trump freely admitted, he wanted to do the same thing. He saw the United States as an extension of his other private enterprises: the Trump Organization, but with the world’s largest military at its disposal
Click to expand...
Is one paragraph. Others are available.
 
Putin's reply to Trump regarding his appeal to spare Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region.

We have read today’s appeal from President Trump to spare the lives of servicemen of the Ukrainian Army in the Kursk region. In this regard, please note that Ukrainian militants have committed numerous crimes against civilians. These acts, as I have already stated, are classified by us as terrorism. At the same time, we are sympathetic to President Trump’s call to be guided by humanitarian considerations regarding these servicemen. In this regard, I emphasize that if they lay down their arms and surrender, they will be guaranteed life and dignified treatment. To effectively implement President Trump’s call, there must be an appropriate order from the military and political leadership of Ukraine to its troops to lay down their arms and surrender.
Click to expand...
 
It's all very well but there aren't thousands of troops surrounded.
When there's no order from Ukraine to surrender it's because Zelensky is a warmonger sacrificing his men but Putin is a good guy offering peace and mercy.
 
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Trump is being played by both sides. The only reason we (Ukraine/EU) is talking about peace negotiations is on the off-chance the US starts supporting the Ukrainians because it could be such a major player. In reality, we're just stringing Trump along in the hope he doesn't actually start supporting Russia actively.
 
Hercules Rockefeller said:
Trump is being played by both sides. The only reason we (Ukraine/EU) is talking about peace negotiations is on the off-chance the US starts supporting the Ukrainians because it could be such a major player. In reality, we're just stringing Trump along in the hope he doesn't actually start supporting Russia actively.
Click to expand...
Also every day that passes is another day closer to Trump dropping dead. He's very old, and fat, and absymally stupid. He might chose to lick a power outlet, drink bleach, or inject ketchup into his veins at any moment.
 
TragicMonkey said:
Also every day that passes is another day closer to Trump dropping dead. He's very old, and fat, and absymally stupid. He might chose to lick a power outlet, drink bleach, or inject ketchup into his veins at any moment.
Click to expand...

Is there such a thing as "too dumb to die"? If so, goshdarnit!
 
Jack by the hedge said:
I can imagine the Russians objecting to Kellog, as he's actually seen what they've been doing in Ukraine and might be dangerously objective. I'm more fascinated by the suggestion that Trump just caved in and removed him. Is there any point at which Trump stands up for himself or his people?
Click to expand...
No, 1) Trampy is a coward and will collapse under any pressure and 2) his people "betrayed" him in 2020 so he has no reason in his mind to do anything other than destroy them.
 
The thing which bothers me most about Trump's claim to have begged Putin to spare the lives of thousands of Ukrainian troops hopelessly surrounded by the Russians is not that it isn't true (that they're surrounded) it's that Trump seems to believe it's true.

He ought to be the best-informed leader in the world on any military situation. He should certainly have people able to tell him accurately what's going on in Kursk. But he comes out with this. I don't get it.

Does he think his fan club will applaud his begging the Russian leader for favours? Weak. They'd want to hear him ordering Putin not to kill the imaginary trapped soldiers.

Self-serving lies, I expect from him. Not this.
 
Jack by the hedge said:
The thing which bothers me most about Trump's claim to have begged Putin to spare the lives of thousands of Ukrainian troops hopelessly surrounded by the Russians is not that it isn't true (that they're surrounded) it's that Trump seems to believe it's true.

He ought to be the best-informed leader in the world on any military situation. He should certainly have people able to tell him accurately what's going on in Kursk. But he comes out with this. I don't get it.

Does he think his fan club will applaud his begging the Russian leader for favours? Weak. They'd want to hear him ordering Putin not to kill the imaginary trapped soldiers.

Self-serving lies, I expect from him. Not this.
Click to expand...

His target isn't the fan club any more, he can punch them in the face and they'll still be there for him, this time it's the Nobel committee.
 
Not sure if this belongs here or a new thread. Donald Tusk
Dear allies, the investigation of the Lithuanian prosecutor’s office has confirmed our suspicions that responsible for setting fires to shopping centres in Vilnius and Warsaw are the Russian secret services. Good to know before negotiations. Such is the nature of this state.
Click to expand...

Donald Tusk (@donald-tusk.bsky.social)

Dear allies, the investigation of the Lithuanian prosecutor’s office has confirmed our suspicions that responsible for setting fires to shopping centres in Vilnius and Warsaw are the Russian secret services. Good to know before negotiations. Such is the nature of this state.
bsky.app bsky.app
 
Wudang said:
Not sure if this belongs here or a new thread. Donald Tusk

Donald Tusk (@donald-tusk.bsky.social)

Dear allies, the investigation of the Lithuanian prosecutor’s office has confirmed our suspicions that responsible for setting fires to shopping centres in Vilnius and Warsaw are the Russian secret services. Good to know before negotiations. Such is the nature of this state.
bsky.app bsky.app
Click to expand...
Committing acts of war and terrorism in NATO countries. Just Russia things. Im sure if they're given Eastern Ukraine they'll be satisfied and there will be no further acts of aggression. /s
 
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