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[Continuation] The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 9

Does Russia think that it's less shameful to lose it to friendly fire rather than be shot down by Ukrainian forces?
 
From the clip I've seen it does look like friendly fire this time - one missile hit a flare and another from a different angle hit the aircraft - I believe only the shorter range missiles use IR?
 
What's Ironic is, if it was friendly fire, the aircraft was supposed to be coordinating things.
 
From the clip I've seen it does look like friendly fire this time - one missile hit a flare and another from a different angle hit the aircraft - I believe only the shorter range missiles use IR?
Portable shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles typically use IR. These are normally deployed on the frontline, where they can protect maneuver units from helicopter gunships and low-flying attack aircraft. It would be suuuper unlikely that a Russian soldier, far behind the frontline, un-assed an IR missile launcher and fired it at one of their own AWACS.

Whatever hit the flare is probably a coincidence, or misreading of the footage.

It doesn't look friendly to me...

https://twitter.com/MuscalR/status/1761091418620064220

You don't fire off flares unless you know you're being chased.
Yeah, but it's not like Zelensky called up the cockpit and said "on your left, bitches!" in that sexy gravelly voice of his. The way they know they're being chased is their Radar Warning Receiver detects an air defense radar tracking them, and sounds an alarm. At which point they radio the air defense center and try to figure out what's going on, sure. But first they do a Crazy Ivan and hope it saves their ass.

What's Ironic is, if it was friendly fire, the aircraft was supposed to be coordinating things.
Fun fact: That's true of western AWACS, where everything is miniaturized to fit on one plane. Russian AWACS requires three planes for the same job: One airborne radar, one command and control, and one electronic warfare escort. This one probably got hit because it was thought safe to fly this far behind the front line without an EW plane to keep missiles off its back.
 
Whatever hit the flare is probably a coincidence, or misreading of the footage.

Probably misreading.

Yeah, but it's not like Zelensky called up the cockpit and said "on your left, bitches!" in that sexy gravelly voice of his. The way they know they're being chased is their Radar Warning Receiver detects an air defense radar tracking them, and sounds an alarm. At which point they radio the air defense center and try to figure out what's going on, sure. But first they do a Crazy Ivan and hope it saves their ass.

Flares don’t really protect against radar tracking missiles. In a panic you might release them anyway, but they would do no good. They aren’t foolproof for modern IR tracking either.
 
The Ukrainians appear to be claiming they got it with an S-200, which has the required range but otherwise seems like a bit of a museum piece rather than something to be able to surprise Russia's top line AWACS plane. Maybe the seeker's newer and smarter than the rest of it.
 
The Ukrainians appear to be claiming they got it with an S-200, which has the required range but otherwise seems like a bit of a museum piece rather than something to be able to surprise Russia's top line AWACS plane. Maybe the seeker's newer and smarter than the rest of it.

Some of the tankies are claiming that Ukraine fired an S-200, but that Russian efforts to shoot down the S-200 resulted in friendly fire on the A-50.

But then again, these are the same people who still claim that the Moscow was lost due to careless cigarette smoking.
 
Some of the tankies are claiming that Ukraine fired an S-200, but that Russian efforts to shoot down the S-200 resulted in friendly fire on the A-50.

Counterpoints: Radar waves don't become obsolete. The Ukrainians have demonstrated that Soviet equipment, if properly maintained and operated, is still capable on the modern battlefield. The S-200 was originally designed for exactly this kind of work - long-range, high-altitude interception of non-stealthy bombers. What makes it obsolete is the introduction of new technologies and doctrines to defeat it. Which Moscow clearly wasn't using in support of this AWACS mission.
 
Three more Su-34s shot down in the last 24 hours.

That's 15 aircraft altogether in the last 11 days.
 
Three more Su-34s shot down in the last 24 hours.

That's 15 aircraft altogether in the last 11 days.

Are we getting close to the time when they might start flying F16s on combat missions as well? Was supposed to be ‘early 2024’ wasn’t it?
 
Apparently no A-50 aircraft have been airborne for four days.
Two theories going round. Either, Russia does not have enough trained crew to keep them in the air, or, the remaining aircraft aren't airworthy.
 
Apparently no A-50 aircraft have been airborne for four days.
Two theories going round. Either, Russia does not have enough trained crew to keep them in the air, or, the remaining aircraft aren't airworthy.

Two more theories:

They don't currently need them, other aircraft and/or ground installations are doing enough of a job given the state of the Ukrainian Air Force
They have been flying, the intelligence that they haven't been airborne is faulty
 
Apparently no A-50 aircraft have been airborne for four days.
Two theories going round. Either, Russia does not have enough trained crew to keep them in the air, or, the remaining aircraft aren't airworthy.

Or they're doing what I assume all air forces do, to one extent or another: Ground the fleet until they have a better idea of what the problem is and how to fix it. On the other hand, it seems they're continuing air operations without proper AWACS, so maybe not.
 
Or they're doing what I assume all air forces do, to one extent or another: Ground the fleet until they have a better idea of what the problem is and how to fix it. On the other hand, it seems they're continuing air operations without proper AWACS, so maybe not.

Similarly, but slightly more expansively - the most likely option, without more detailed information, is that they're choosing not to fly them. The why could vary a fair bit. Fear is the obvious - of losing more, of punishment for losing them, of the embarrassment for Russia, of the unknown, etc does seem like a likely case, though. As you said, responsibility could be in play as a reason for such. Given Russia, I'm somewhat doubtful that the explanation isn't more selfish/corrupt/unprofessional, but it is possible.
 
Two more theories:

They don't currently need them, other aircraft and/or ground installations are doing enough of a job given the state of the Ukrainian Air Force
They have been flying, the intelligence that they haven't been airborne is faulty

Both extremely unlikely.
 
Long time with no hits and now 12 in as many days?

Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I suspect that the US has sent some "advisers" with some presents for Ukraine.
 
Long time with no hits and now 12 in as many days?

Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I suspect that the US has sent some "advisers" with some presents for Ukraine.

Jesus and I hope that every NATO country has missionaries in Ukraine, strolling around in casual biz attire and offering "no opinion on that" when buttonholed by the press.

Jeeze and I also hope that those crates marked in cyrillic "Humanitarian Aid for Puppies, Kittens, and Orphans" get delivered after dark to exactly the right installations.

We'd be pissed if they didn't.
 
Long time with no hits and now 12 in as many days?

Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I suspect that the US has sent some "advisers" with some presents for Ukraine.

There's things you can do with a Patriot missile, beyond the range of its ground radar, but only if you have a really good idea of where the target is. I wouldn't be surprised if NATO is giving them gold-standard intel on exactly where these planes are flying.
 
Whatever they're hitting them with, they're the target Ukraine needs to hit as glide bombs dropped from well behind Russian lines are really hurting the Ukrainian front lines.
I wonder how many of their serviceable aircraft will be gone before the Russians change tactics. With a bit of luck the local commanders' fear of admitting how many unserviceable planes they have will make their seniors underestimate the losses and make them keep trying.
 
Ukraine say they got another SU-34 today and are waiting for confirmation of an SU-35
 
Okay, I have to smile at this reversal of doctrine. Historically, Moscow (nee the Soviet Union), aimed to take on NATO's superior air force with strong air defenses.

Now it is Moscow that has the superior air force, and is seeing it dismantled by their very own doctrine in Ukrainian hands. Hopefully time is a flat circle, and we will soon see it wrap all the way around to the Ukrainians dismantling the remains of Moscow's air defenses, with a superior air force.
 
My little bit of wishful thinking. I have no evidence at all, and think it's not true, but I like to think the US and NATO have somehow sidestepped the GOP's lack of support/pro-russia thing and gotten some equipment and aid to Ukraine.
 
My little bit of wishful thinking. I have no evidence at all, and think it's not true, but I like to think the US and NATO have somehow sidestepped the GOP's lack of support/pro-russia thing and gotten some equipment and aid to Ukraine.

It's not wishful thinking at all. Tons of NATO members have been sending stuff to Ukraine, outside of US control.

But maybe you're thinking of an Ollie North type, actively breaking US law to send weapons where the president wants them but can't be seen to be sending them.

But really the scale of the conflict in Ukraine is too big for an arms shipment to make a difference, unless it's so big that it would be noticed by everyone.

The good news is, there doesn't seem to be any formal restriction, or public visibility, on NATO sharing top shelf reconnaissance and intelligence info with Ukraine.
 
It's not wishful thinking at all. Tons of NATO members have been sending stuff to Ukraine, outside of US control.

I keep reading about promises but no actions, but I'm probably wrong. Also, I still think the US is integral to success for now, as most NATO nations don't dedicate as much spending to defense as the US does.

But maybe you're thinking of an Ollie North type, actively breaking US law to send weapons where the president wants them but can't be seen to be sending them.

I think, to a degree, I am. Though, that would look more like some dude selling arms to Iran for the Houthis to supply Ukraine. I don't think it's like that.

But really the scale of the conflict in Ukraine is too big for an arms shipment to make a difference, unless it's so big that it would be noticed by everyone.

The good news is, there doesn't seem to be any formal restriction, or public visibility, on NATO sharing top shelf reconnaissance and intelligence info with Ukraine.

These last two parts, I just don't know about, as I'm obviously pretty ignorant of military in general. I'm just wondering about the shoot downs of the planes when Ukraine is saying it has no munitions.
I guess what my little fantasy is, is that the defense department is somehow working around Congress. I don't think that's a good thing, as I think the executive branch has been getting too much control of war for decades now, but in the immediate moment, could have better results than waiting for the GOP to do something productive.
 
Those glide bombs are huge. I thought they just stuck wings on regular bombs but the ones they use are very heavy and they are accurate. Denys had been talking about them for months. Now I know why. They effectively halted the advance on the left bank of the Dnieper. It didn't matter where the Ukrainians took cover. A single bomb would leave only a massive hole in the ground.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...rainian-weapon-can-stop-them/?sh=232adfff11b6
 
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Meanwhile, in Russia:

Last year people from Ingushetia formed a government in exile and declared independence from Russia. It didn't get much press.

Today the FSB raided an apartment in the republic's capital, Magas (an unfortunate name if one wants to search for the city rather that people belonging to an orange cult). Ingushetia is next to Chechnya, during the Soviet era they were in the same SSR. They are Muslim and very much not ethnically Russian.

Ten hours later and the fighting is still going strong. Russia calls it an anti-terrorist operation. Heavy gunfire and lots of booms.

Russia and Ru-friendly sources keep referring to it in past tense. Like "the anti-terror operation lasted for two hours". Followed some hours later by "the anti-terror operation lasted for seven hours." At last check, the fighting "lasted" for ten hours. (ETA: now it has "lasted" for 13 hours).

So now it is daylight and they are still fighting. Russia claims that it is just six guys holed up in an apartment. But if you see the vids on Twitter or Reddit, that's a crap ton of gunfire. For ten hours.

Hopefully a crack finally forming in the Russian hinterlands.

ETA: Some vids here if you don't mind using twitter. https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1764176590408142951
 
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Those glide bombs are huge. I thought they just stuck wings on regular bombs but the ones they use are very heavy and they are accurate. Denys had been talking about them for months. Now I know why. They effectively halted the advance on the left bank of the Dnieper. It didn't matter where the Ukrainians took cover. A single bomb would leave only a massive hole in the ground.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...rainian-weapon-can-stop-them/?sh=232adfff11b6

Ugh, that's scary and depressing.
 
I keep reading about promises but no actions, but I'm probably wrong.
You're definitely wrong. Lots of NATO members are donating lots of stuff. Weapons, ammunition, vehicles, humanitarian supplies, technical specialists*... Many countries are donating significant fractions of their GDP, in one form or another. The promises being made are promises being fulfilled.

Also, I still think the US is integral to success for now, as most NATO nations don't dedicate as much spending to defense as the US does.
Maybe so, but I'm not sure it comes down to raw numbers anymore. It's pretty obvious at this point that the rest of NATO can easily outspend Moscow even without the US. But the US has certain advanced technologies that the rest of NATO does not. Battlefield surveillance aircraft, for example. These are being flown outside of Ukrainian airspace, where Moscow dare not touch them, but they can still see what's going on, and that invaluable information can be passed on to Ukraine.

I think, to a degree, I am. Though, that would look more like some dude selling arms to Iran for the Houthis to supply Ukraine. I don't think it's like that.
Yeah, definitely not like that.

These last two parts, I just don't know about, as I'm obviously pretty ignorant of military in general. I'm just wondering about the shoot downs of the planes when Ukraine is saying it has no munitions.
Ukraine is primarily saying it has a shortage of artillery ammunition. This shortage makes it very difficult for them to make progress on the ground, but has nothing to do with the air war.

They also have a limited amount of ammunition for their German-donated anti-air guns.** But these guns are for short-range air defense. The shoot downs are happening at long range.

The Ukrainians also have a limited number of long-range anti-air missiles, which is what they'd be using for these shoot-downs. However, Moscow has a limited number of planes to put in the air, so this sudden surge of shoot-downs probably isn't due to some magic illegal shipment of missiles that "fell off a truck" or something.

I guess what my little fantasy is, is that the defense department is somehow working around Congress. I don't think that's a good thing, as I think the executive branch has been getting too much control of war for decades now, but in the immediate moment, could have better results than waiting for the GOP to do something productive.
My guess is that Ukraine has been hoarding its long-range anti-air missiles, and coordinating with NATO reconnaissance information to wipe out a bunch of Moscow's air power all at one, at a time of their choosing - which appears to be now.

Personally I don't want the President to ever break the law, or flout the limits placed on him by Congress, not even for a good cause. That's what the bully pulpit is for: To convince voters to convince their elected representatives to give him what he needs to accomplish the goal he's set for the country.

I think a more likely scenario is that the US and others are doing more secretly, but not illegally, than we know.

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*Poland, for example, has sent police bomb disposal experts to help with demining and unexploded ordnance efforts. They can't send their military bomb squads, of course, since nobody in NATO is yet prepared to send actual troops. At least not overtly.

**This is because Germany contracted with Switzerland to manufacture the ammunition, and Switzerland insists that its neutrality agreements prohibit Germany from passing the ammo on to Ukraine.
 
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