[Continuation] The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 9

[Andy_Ross]

Rouble doing well. 106.7 roubles to a dollar

ETA Now at 107.74 just ten minutes later.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

Beau of the Fifth Column quoted someone (forgot the source) saying russia has, at most, until the end of 2025, after that their war economy will no longer be tenable. Then again, even then they will still have surplus material and munitions to continue fighting into 2026.
Whether the war has been won or lost long before then is anyone's guess, of course.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Don't agree.
War economies can go on for a very long time, especially when there is no territorial threat to the production sites.
But it will be almost impossible to return to a civil economy without massive external investments - China will buy up Russia at fire sale prices.

 

[Dr.Sid]

We'll see .. something is certainly happening with the ruble ..

 

[Dr.Sid]

RUB-USD is now lowest it was since the start of the war. There was steep drop right after the invasion, but it quickly recovered, and it seemed the ruble just doesn't care. Well not it's lower than the lowest point in 2022. It also drops against Chinese Yuan, though it didn't beat the record from 2022 just yet (seems like it might happen in 2 or 3 days).
I heard some news from Russian central bank about them running out of money, but what kind of money it was I don't remember, and I'm hardly economist, I would have no what it means anyway. But something is indeed happening.

 

[jimbob]

I have moved the discussion about the IRA to

parallels between Ukraine and Northern Ireland

It is off topic here

Apologies for not finishing the links or announcing it earlier

Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: jimbob

 

[Wudang]

Abandoning Ukraine means ‘infinitely higher’ long-term security costs, MI6 chief says

If Putin allowed to reduce Ukraine to vassal state ‘he will not stop there’, Richard Moore says in plea to Trump

www.theguardian.com

“The cost of supporting Ukraine is well known,” said Moore. (Head of MI6) “But the cost of not doing so would be infinitely higher. If Putin succeeds, China would weigh the implications, North Korea would be emboldened and Iran would become still more dangerous.”

And

Russia-Ukraine war: Moscow behind ‘staggeringly reckless’ sabotage in Europe, MI6 chief says – as it happened

Richard Moore said that were Vladimir Putin to succeed in reducing Ukraine to a vassal state, he would not stop there

www.theguardian.com

Richard Moore said in a speech in Paris on Friday that were Vladimir Putin to succeed in reducing Ukraine to a vassal state, he would not stop there, reports Reuters.

“Our security – British, French, European and transatlantic- will be jeopardised,” he said, adding:

We have recently uncovered a staggeringly reckless campaign of Russian sabotage in Europe, even as Putin and his acolytes resort to nuclear sabre-rattling to sow fear about the consequences of aiding Ukraine.”

 

[The Great Zaganza]

It's a win-win for the West: Russia will exhaust itself trying to conquer or trying to control Ukraine - it will never manage to get the economic output out of it a free Ukraine can. It will be an albatross.

 

[Andy_Ross]

It seems the Assad regime is collapsing now the Russians have gone to fight in Ukraine.

Free Syria flag flying over Aleppo and prisoners set free. The Syrian forces are just disintegrating

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Russians are probably annoyed by getting attacked by Israel in Syria.

 

[steenkh]

It seems the Assad regime is collapsing now the Russians have gone to fight in Ukraine.

Free Syria flag flying over Aleppo and prisoners set free. The Syrian forces are just disintegrating

Yes, Islamist forces are on the march again. It is just as when Russia left Afghanistan.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Russians have fled another Syrian base, they have retreated from their base at As Suqaylabiyah to their main Syrian base at Hmeimim.

 

[The Don]

Russians have fled another Syrian base, they have retreated from their base at As Suqaylabiyah to their main Syrian base at Hmeimim.

I haven't seen this yet on my primary news source (BBC Online) but there are a number of stories about reversals for Russia and/or Assad:

Rebel forces in Syria have taken control of the "majority" of the country's second-largest city, Aleppo, according to the UK-based monitoring group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

Aleppo: Syria rebels 'control majority of the city', say observers

Russia launched air raids in parts of the city overnight for the first time since 2016, a monitoring group says.

www.bbc.co.uk

Rebel forces have launched a major offensive in north-western Syria, capturing territory from President Bashar al-Assad’s forces for the first time in years.

The Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions said they had seized control of a number of towns and villages in Aleppo and Idlib provinces since Wednesday.

Syria rebels launch major offensive in north-west and gain territory

The rebels have reportedly taken several towns and villages in Aleppo and Idlib provinces since Wednesday.

www.bbc.co.uk

How beneficial it may be to free oneself from Assad only to have Islamists take over is definitely a good question - there may very well be no "good guys".

Regarding the Russians retreating, there is this YouTube video though I cannot vouch for the source in any way:

 

[Aridas]

How beneficial it may be to free oneself from Assad only to have Islamists take over is definitely a good question - there may very well be no "good guys".

Anyone who could be remotely called "good guys" were the first and highest priority targets of the Russians, after all.

 

[jimbob]

Anyone who could be remotely called "good guys" were the first and highest priority targets of the Russians, after all.

Definitely the Russian plan

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Russia's goal in Syria was to prevent a pro-US/Israel regime to take hold.
Looks like they are getting their way by moving out.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

BBC's take is that the damage Israel's inflicted on Hezbollah and its Iranian support has significantly weakened the Iranian-backed militias which Assad depends on to hold ground, to such a degree that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham saw their opportunity and broke the ceasefire.

Syria: Who are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebels seizing control of Aleppo?

The Islamist militant group HTS has a long and involved history in the Syrian conflict.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[steenkh]

Definitely the Russian plan

I don’t think they are too keen on supporting religious nutters, even if they are the enemy of their enemies.

Russia's goal in Syria was to prevent a pro-US/Israel regime to take hold.
Looks like they are getting their way by moving out.

They would also like to have a naval base in the Mediterranean.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Do you think Putin, in the privacy of his own head, honestly thinks his whole Ukraine invasion was and is a good idea? Clearly he doesn't think he can back out of it, but do you think he sincerely thinks he made the smart choice to do it in the first place?

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I think he enjoys the idea of actually physically fight the US by proxy instead of just waging a shadow and economic war.

 

[Aridas]

I don’t think they are too keen on supporting religious nutters, even if they are the enemy of their enemies.

Sure! Thus, they fought against them. With that said, that misses the point made. The religious nutters were their enemies, just lower priority enemies. Pointing out that they're enemies in no way refutes that.

 

[Trebuchet]

Do you think Putin, in the privacy of his own head, honestly thinks his whole Ukraine invasion was and is a good idea? Clearly he doesn't think he can back out of it, but do you think he sincerely thinks he made the smart choice to do it in the first place?

I think not. Because he's smarter than Trump, who never made a mistake in his whole life.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Do you think Putin, in the privacy of his own head, honestly thinks his whole Ukraine invasion was and is a good idea? Clearly he doesn't think he can back out of it, but do you think he sincerely thinks he made the smart choice to do it in the first place?

I think he'll quickly have realised he was lied to by those who told him what he wanted to hear; that they'd be welcomed as liberators by the silent majority of Ukrainians. Whether he now has a realistic idea of how much they hate his guts or instead believes they've been temporarily brainwashed by CIA mind rays or some other fantasy I don't know.

 

[ThatGuy11200]

I think he'll quickly have realised he was lied to by those who told him what he wanted to hear; that they'd be welcomed as liberators by the silent majority of Ukrainians. Whether he now has a realistic idea of how much they hate his guts or instead believes they've been temporarily brainwashed by CIA mind rays or some other fantasy I don't know.

Why do people think he believed that?

 

[Pixel42]

Why do people think he believed that?

I remember reading, not long after the invasion, that there were supposed to be hoards of Russian sympathisers primed and ready to do exactly that in Kiev and other key places, but it turned out that the money that was supposed to have been used to recruit them had remained in the pockets of Putin's appointed recruiters. I don't know how reliable that intelligence was, but given how much other money turned out to have not been spent as Putin had instructed it seems plausible.

 

[crescent]

Why do people think he believed that?

Some of the Russian troops themselves seemed to believe that. In the first days of the invasion there was video or Russian troops visibly confused by the resistance. Asking Ukrainians why they were resisting? Why fighting back?

Putin and a good bit of the Russian public seemed to have fallen for their own propaganda.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Do you think Putin, in the privacy of his own head, honestly thinks his whole Ukraine invasion was and is a good idea? Clearly he doesn't think he can back out of it, but do you think he sincerely thinks he made the smart choice to do it in the first place?

In the privacy of his own head he likely doesn't have the first clue what's going on in Ukraine. Dictatorships like his are loath to tell the boss man when things are going arse over elbow.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Why do people think he believed that?

Because that's how the initial invading troops were decked out and how the invasion plans were drawn up. Everybody in the Ruzzian chain of command was full sure that the Ukrainian military would defect on the first sound of bullets and the people would welcome Putain like Austrians the Anscluß.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Just like Iraq and the Americans

 

[Andy_Ross]

Romania's far right presidential frontrunner vows to end Ukraine aid

Calin Georgescu, the fringe nationalist politician leading the presidential race in Romania, has told the BBC that he would end all support for Ukraine if elected


when questioned about Russia's war on Ukraine, he first asked, "Are you sure of that?".
He then said Romania was interested only in pushing for peace on its border but refused to say that this should be on Kyiv's terms.
When asked whether he agreed with standing by Ukraine, as the EU puts it, "for as long as it takes", Georgescu said "No." He said things would change.

"I agree just that I have to take care of my people. I don't want to involve my people," he replied, clarifying that Romania – an EU and Nato member - would provide no more military or political support for its neighbour.
"Zero. Everything stops. I have to take care just about my people. We have a lot of problems ourselves."

Georgescu underlined that he would keep Romania inside the EU and Nato, but that everything from now on would be "negotiated" and focus on his country's interests.

Romania election: Frontrunner Calin Georgescu vows to end Ukraine aid

Calin Georgescu, who leads Romania's presidential race, tells the BBC he would end support for Ukraine if elected.

www.bbc.co.uk

He also thinks Covid is a hoax along with the Apollo moon landings,

 

[plague311]

Romania's far right presidential frontrunner vows to end Ukraine aid

Snipped for brevity. Is it contagious that every country in the world is voting for far-right morons? What is it with this world we live in? Easily the worst ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ timeline.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Russia has long tentacles and still has a big purse for things like this.

 

[Dr.Sid]

You don't really need a lot of money. You just have to pick your targets well. Russia was always great at this.

 

[dudalb]

Don't really know too much about it, but I'm and atheist, so they're all kind of the same to me. Of course, some are more dangerous than others.

Snipped for brevity. Is it contagious that every country in the world is voting for far-right morons? What is it with this world we live in? Easily the worst ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ timeline.

Russia found the weak spot in the West. That simple.

 

[dudalb]

And you have to wonder if Putin apparently cutting back of support for Assad in Syria is not because he simply cannot afford it anymore, and it has not paid off the way he hoped in terms of influence and prestige in the MIddle East.

 

[a_unique_person]

He can't support Assad. He's maxed out. Some bombers that can fly high enough to be safe from light AA are ok. That's it as far as I can tell.

 

[Wudang]

Russia spending millions on preparing for trench warfare around Kursk.

ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki@mastodon.social)

Attached: 1 image 1/ Russia is reportedly spending at least 10 billion rubles ($99 million) to build a massive defensive system in the Kursk region, having already spent 3 billion rubles ($29.7 million) to build defences that comprehensively failed to keep out the Ukrainians. ⬇️

mastodon.social

 

[dudalb]

He can't support Assad. He's maxed out. Some bombers that can fly high enough to be safe from light AA are ok. That's it as far as I can tell.

I think Putin whole involement with Assad simply has not paid off the way Putin thought it would. He has not won any real infuence and prestige in the Mideast with this support, and his Syrian Naval Base is proving useless since he does not hav emuch in the way of ships to put in it. Hr is pulling out of a bad investment.

 

[a_unique_person]

I think Putin whole involement with Assad simply has not paid off the way Putin thought it would. He has not won any real infuence and prestige in the Mideast with this support, and his Syrian Naval Base is proving useless since he does not hav emuch in the way of ships to put in it. Hr is pulling out of a bad investment.

It's an important warm water base for Putin. His ports in inside the Bosporus suffer from the rules that govern movement of naval ships.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Russia is going to be back big in Syria - it wants the port it has paid for.