[Continuation] The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 9

[plague311]

The Guardian article I checked didn't say it was "detained" just that it was being "shadowed". Either way, it looks like the Swedes and the Finns are pretty aggressively looking into this and from the comments in that article it appears all teams involved think it's the Chinese but aren't saying it out loud quite yet.

 

[alfaniner]

Russia fires intercontinental ballistic missile in attack on Ukraine, Kyiv says​

Non-nuclear though, obviously. Still, this and the cable severing reminds me of all those slow buildup nuke movies and Seconds From Disaster scenarios, where a lot of little things escalate into something really bad.

 

[The Don]

Non-nuclear though, obviously. Still, this and the cable severing reminds me of all those slow buildup nuke movies and Seconds From Disaster scenarios, where a lot of little things escalate into something really bad.

If that is the case, should the West de-escalate in an attempt to appease Russia; carry on as-is; actually escalate the situation to have control over the timing of the inevitable or do something else ?

My view is that, if anything, Ukraine should get more and better support to assist it in expelling the Russian invader because any attempt to appease Russia will simply result in more Russian aggression.

 

[Oystein]

There is some debate on the internet whether what hit Dnipro today is correctly labeled an "ICBM" (InterContinental Ballistic Missile) or an "IRBM" (Intermediate Range Ball. Miss."), and what it means if Russia used a missile design that was apparently moth-balled in 2018.

At any rate, video footage from Dnipro in the dark early morning shows that about half a dozen very fast lights fell from heaven and hit the city, so it plausibly was one hypersonic launch system with multiple warheads.

But aside from all of that, whether ICBM or IRBM: These systems are meant and designed to carry nuclear weapons, even while they are of course also capable of carrying conventional warheads. In principle, they could just as well deliver puffs of cotton candy.

The thing is: The RS-26 "Rubezh" missile currently reported to have been used has an accuracy of only tens to hundreds of meters - good enough for a nuke to wipe out a city, but insufficient for conventional warheads to inflict anything other than sheer terror.
So IF this was an ICBM or IRBM of whatever kind, the purpose of the strike of course wasn't to take out any specific target.

It was to send a message: "Look, we are not beyound using bigger, badder weapons if you don't run away crying to mama!"
AND, perhaps more importantly, to watch how the collective and the variously individual West reacts to this message.
One message I noticed here in Germany: On the public-law broadcasting service's internet news site tagesschau.de this first use in history of a (possible) ICBM today isn't the top item, not even a top-3 item. It's only about the #4 item they carry (#1: Several stories revolving about the coming parliamentary re-election in Germany; #2: Matt Gaetz not becoming US AG, and what other nominees are doing; #3: Warrants against Netanyahu, Gallant and Deif). So a bit as if to say "Like d'uh".

 

[Andy_Ross]

BBC Report says Putin has said that an attack by his forces on the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday morning was carried out using "a new conventional intermediate-range missile".

He said that the missile, codenamed Oreshnik, was a response to the use by Ukraine of US and UK long-range weaponry to hit targets inside Russia.

The US National Security Council, said "an experimental medium-range ballistic missile" had been used against Ukraine, adding that Russia probably only possessed a handful of these weapons and that they would not be a game changer in the war.

Russia Ukraine war: Putin warns West as 'new missile' fired

Russia's president says the attack on Dnipro is a response to Ukraine's use of long-range US and UK weaponry.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

BBC Report says Putin has said that an attack by his forces on the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday morning was carried out using "a new conventional intermediate-range missile".

He said that the missile, codenamed Oreshnik, was a response to the use by Ukraine of US and UK long-range weaponry to hit targets inside Russia.

The US National Security Council, said "an experimental medium-range ballistic missile" had been used against Ukraine, adding that Russia probably only possessed a handful of these weapons and that they would not be a game changer in the war.

Russia Ukraine war: Putin warns West as 'new missile' fired

Russia's president says the attack on Dnipro is a response to Ukraine's use of long-range US and UK weaponry.

www.bbc.co.uk

Well hopefully they'll use all their working ones delivering conventional warheads leaving none left for their nuclear payloads...

 

[Dr.Sid]

Well hopefully they'll use all their working ones delivering conventional warheads leaving none left for their nuclear payloads...

I doubt it. This was a demonstration. I don't think we'll see much more of them with conventional warheads, they must be insanely expensive.

 

[jimbob]

The Guardian article I checked didn't say it was "detained" just that it was being "shadowed". Either way, it looks like the Swedes and the Finns are pretty aggressively looking into this and from the comments in that article it appears all teams involved think it's the Chinese but aren't saying it out loud quite yet.

Elsewhere, usually credible OSINT accounts have said it was detained, and showed photos of it at anchor

For example

With links to ship tracker sites etc

Danish Navy Shadows Chinese Cargo Ship After Baltic Sea Cable Damage

The Chinese ship, the Yi Peng 3, is now anchored, with a Royal Danish Navy patrol boat alongside it. The Chinese ship, the Yi Peng 3, is now anchored, with a Royal Danish Navy patrol boat alongside it.

www.twz.com

 

[jimbob]

BBC Report says Putin has said that an attack by his forces on the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday morning was carried out using "a new conventional intermediate-range missile".

He said that the missile, codenamed Oreshnik, was a response to the use by Ukraine of US and UK long-range weaponry to hit targets inside Russia.

The US National Security Council, said "an experimental medium-range ballistic missile" had been used against Ukraine, adding that Russia probably only possessed a handful of these weapons and that they would not be a game changer in the war.

Russia Ukraine war: Putin warns West as 'new missile' fired

Russia's president says the attack on Dnipro is a response to Ukraine's use of long-range US and UK weaponry.

www.bbc.co.uk

And of course the IRBM looks to have been being developed in contravention of the INF treaty.

The Story Of Russia’s Secretive RS-26 Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile

The Oreshnik missile that Russia used today in Ukraine has roots in the supposedly defunct RS-26 Rubezh ballistic missile program. The roots of the Oreshnik missile that Russia claims was used today in Ukraine may well lie in the RS-26 Rubezh intermediate-range ballistic missile.

www.twz.com

 

[plague311]

Elsewhere, usually credible OSINT accounts have said it was detained, and showed photos of it at anchor

For example

With links to ship tracker sites etc

Danish Navy Shadows Chinese Cargo Ship After Baltic Sea Cable Damage

The Chinese ship, the Yi Peng 3, is now anchored, with a Royal Danish Navy patrol boat alongside it. The Chinese ship, the Yi Peng 3, is now anchored, with a Royal Danish Navy patrol boat alongside it.

www.twz.com

The headline of your article says it's being "shadowed" but not "detained". I mean, whatever, I don't care enough nor am I fluent enough with the jargon to bother arguing the difference. If you guys want it referred to as detained rather than being shadowed, I'll happily oblige.

 

[crescent]

And of course the IRBM looks to have been being developed in contravention of the INF treaty.

The Story Of Russia’s Secretive RS-26 Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile

The Oreshnik missile that Russia used today in Ukraine has roots in the supposedly defunct RS-26 Rubezh ballistic missile program. The roots of the Oreshnik missile that Russia claims was used today in Ukraine may well lie in the RS-26 Rubezh intermediate-range ballistic missile.

www.twz.com

Any effort to get Russia to adhere to any treaty, ever, is now labeled as a western act of "escalation". And we can't be escalating things, that would be just so wrong of us good guys.

 

[theprestige]

Am I the only one who finds it weird that ballistic rocketry is not yet a settled science in Russia? Intermediate range ballistic missiles have been around since the first half of the previous century, at least. The science of gunnery goes back even farther than that.

Sure, you upgrade the guidance package as new technology develops. Maybe redesign with newer materials. But the premise that Russia has recently developed an "advanced" ballistic missile that they only have a few of so far just seems weird to me.

 

[Metullus]

They probably don't have access to these...

 

[Dr.Sid]

Am I the only one who finds it weird that ballistic rocketry is not yet a settled science in Russia? Intermediate range ballistic missiles have been around since the first half of the previous century, at least. The science of gunnery goes back even farther than that.

Sure, you upgrade the guidance package as new technology develops. Maybe redesign with newer materials. But the premise that Russia has recently developed an "advanced" ballistic missile that they only have a few of so far just seems weird to me.

The differences are in precision and terminal velocity at the target. Compare the videos of Dnipro strike with Iran strikes against Israel. Iran has respectable medium range capability, but it's not the cutting edge. At the target the missiles were estimated at about Mach 3 (even though Iran claimed hypersonic). From the videos of Dnipro strike you can see those Russian ones were significantly faster. Claims are Mach 10 and this time there is not much doubt.
Precision still seems to be poor (for conventional warhead), but it is a "next gen" threat. It's certainly pretty much unstoppable, certainly in terminal phase.
Are they much better than other Russian missiles ? Hard to tell. I think they might have been used because they are in experimental stage, and are not mated with nuclear warheads yet. At mach 10 they might just as have inert warheads. But in general, weapons like these are made for nukes, because of their price. They could also be used for precise strikes against high level targets. But can they do it ?
Now Russia threatens to use these new IRBMs to attack "NATO base" near Lviv (ie. near Slovak and Poland border), where supposedly F-16s are together with many western experts. If that happens, we will know more about their precision. In Dnipro they didn't hit anything specific,they most likely aimed at the city in general. Attack on Lviv base would be different, it would require precise targeting. It might happen overnight ..

 

[Safe-Keeper]

So Anna from Ukraine (on YT) tipped me off to how the ruble has really taken a nose dive recently.


Any reasonable leader would've ended this war a long time ago. Oh, sorry, not war, a 'special military operation'. Special as in, in the words of 'Yahtzee' Croshaw, 'sorry, my son ate your shoes, he's a bit special'.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

So Anna from Ukraine (on YT) tipped me off to how the ruble has really taken a nose dive recently.
View attachment 57840

Any reasonable leader would've ended this war a long time ago. Oh, sorry, not war, a 'special military operation'. Special as in, in the words of 'Yahtzee' Croshaw, 'sorry, my son ate your shoes, he's a bit special'.

Yeah, like Lyndon B. Johnson ended the Vietnam war, and George W. Bush avoided locking us into a 20 year involvement in the Middle East.

The truth is, Putin doesn't have much of a choice. But as your chart shows, the Ruble hasn't entirely collapsed, so the incentive to 'stay the course' remains. Russia has survived on less before. Many older Russians are now on a nostalgia trip, reliving the good old days when austerity was patriotic and they weren't influenced by the decadence of the West. It will have to get a lot worse before Putin decides it's time to throw in the towel.

 

[Trebuchet]

It's like the monkey who put his fist in the jar and can't get it out without losing the nuts. Or in Putin's case, maybe his life. Besides, he only has to wait until January 20 for the situation to look a whole lot rosier for him.

 

[Pixel42]

Freezing the front lines in Ukraine would condemn millions to Russian occupation

Donald Trump's election win is fueling speculation of a possible peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, but any attempt to freeze the front lines would condemn millions of Ukrainians to the horrors of Russian occupation, writes Mercedes Sapuppo.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

With occupied areas of Ukraine largely cut off from the outside world, accurate information regarding the scale of the human rights abuses currently taking place remains limited. However, the available evidence indicates that a systematic campaign is underway to silence any potential dissent and impose a reign of terror on the Ukrainian civilian population. “Kremlin-occupied Ukraine is now a totalitarian hell,” Britain’s The Economist reported in early November.

Large numbers of Ukrainians in occupied regions of the country have been subjected to forced deportation or have simply disappeared. An Associated Press investigation in summer 2023 concluded that thousands of Ukrainian civilians are being detained in a network of formal and informal prisons across Russia and the territories it occupies, where they endure torture, psychological abuse, and are even forced to engage in slave labor. “Russia plans to build dozens more prisons,” the report claimed.

In occupied regions, the Kremlin is working to erase all traces of Ukrainian statehood and seeking to Russify every aspect of daily life. These efforts include renaming streets, turning the clocks back to Moscow time, and pressuring residents to accept Russian citizenship in order to access basic public services such as healthcare and state pensions. Ukrainian schools under Russian occupation now teach a Kremlin-friendly curriculum that demonizes Ukraine while forcing students to celebrate the soldiers invading their country. Parents who resist risk losing custody of their children.

Russian attempts to indoctrinate young Ukrainians are not restricted to the classroom. At least 20,000 Ukrainian children have been abducted from occupied regions since the start of the full-scale invasion, with many sent to a network of camps where they are subjected to indoctrination aimed at depriving them of their Ukrainian nationality and turning them into Russians.

 

[The Don]

Not only that, but freezing the front line would simply give Russia a springboard for their next invasion in a few months or years time.

Of course Trump simply doesn't care.

 

[The Don]

France is being clear that they continue to support Ukraine.

No 'red lines' in Ukraine support, French foreign minister tells BBC

Jean-Noël Barrot speaks to Laura Kuenssberg after a week of escalation in Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

There are no "red lines" when it comes to support for Ukraine, the French Foreign Minister has told the BBC.

 

[sphenisc]

There are no "red lines" when it comes to support for Ukraine, the French Foreign Minister has told the BBC.

This is the same France that has nuclear weapons right?

 

[The Great Zaganza]

This is the same France that has nuclear weapons right?

not only that, they have a First Strike Doctrine, with a special low-yield nuclear warhead to make it absolutely clear that they are willing to use even more nukes if there is no de-escalation.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Apparently, the russian Constitutional Court has ruled that contract soldiers cannot be released from military service until they reach 65 or 70 years of age, depending on their rank.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Apparently, the russian Constitutional Court has ruled that contract soldiers cannot be released from military service until they reach 65 or 70 years of age, depending on their rank.

Life expectancy for Russian men is 67. And that figure is from before the Special Military Depopulation, so nudge it down a bit.

 

[jimbob]

So Anna from Ukraine (on YT) tipped me off to how the ruble has really taken a nose dive recently.
View attachment 57840

Any reasonable leader would've ended this war a long time ago. Oh, sorry, not war, a 'special military operation'. Special as in, in the words of 'Yahtzee' Croshaw, 'sorry, my son ate your shoes, he's a bit special'.

An average mortgage rate of 22% is probably also not very pleasant

 

[jimbob]

The headline of your article says it's being "shadowed" but not "detained". I mean, whatever, I don't care enough nor am I fluent enough with the jargon to bother arguing the difference. If you guys want it referred to as detained rather than being shadowed, I'll happily oblige.

Officially it hasn't. Just shadowed. But it has been at anchor for 3 days next to Danish Navy vessels

Has Denmark challenged the right of innocent passage? Watch Yi Peng 3 to find out

The swift and aggressive response to Yi Peng 3 is insightful and suggests a co-ordinated decision by Nato allies

www.lloydslist.com

 

[jimbob]

I've started a new thread on Hybrid Warfare in the 2020s

Thread 'Hybrid warfare in the 2020s'

Nov 24, 2024

There have been several instances of what looks like hybrid warfare,

The most recent high profile one being the severing of data cables in the Baltic

Has Denmark challenged the right of innocent passage? Watch Yi Peng 3 to find out

The swift and aggressive response to Yi Peng 3 is insightful and suggests a co-ordinated decision by Nato allies

www.lloydslist.com

But also instances of drone swarms around USAF bases in the US and UK that I am aware of as well as other sensitive instillations and vessels...

• jimbob
• china hybrid warfare russia
• Replies: 10
• Forum: Non-USA & General Politics

 

[The Great Zaganza]

No doubt, like Stalin, Putin has already a program in place to make women into compulsory baby factories to replenish the casualties of the war.

 

[Andy_Ross]

A far-right, pro-Russia candidate is set for a shock victory in the first round of Romania's presidential election.

Georgescu, who belongs to no party, has sworn to end what he calls subservience to the European Union and Nato, especially on support for Ukraine.

The strong showing of Georgescu, who has no party of his own, and campaigned largely on the social media platform TikTok, came as the biggest surprise of the election.

Another example of voting for the face eating leopard.

Far-right candidate takes shock lead in Romania presidential election

Calin Georgescu, a NATO and EU critic, is ahead in the first round of voting, overtaking the prime minister.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Andy_Ross]

UK’s Challenger II Tanks “Outperform” U.S. Abrams In Ukraine War; Tank Commander Hails British MBTs.

Ukrainian soldiers stationed in the Kursk region have reportedly ‘highly praised’ the UK-supplied Challenger II tanks, underlining their pinpoint accuracy, advanced fire control system, and survivability in the harsh battlefield conditions.

The tanks, which were delivered to Ukraine by Great Britain in 2023, are now serving with the 82nd Airborne Assault Bukovyna Brigade

The onboard computer acts as the tank’s “brain” and allows the crew to make highly accurate shots at distances of up to 10 kilometers. “It works like a sniper,” Oleksandr explained.

Full story

UK's Challenger II Tanks "Outperform" U.S. Abrams In Ukraine War; Tank Commander Hails British MBTs

Ukrainian soldiers stationed in the Kursk region have reportedly ‘highly praised’ the UK-supplied Challenger II tanks, underlining their pinpoint accuracy, advanced fire control system, and survivability in the harsh battlefield conditions. The tanks, which were delivered to Ukraine by Great...

www.eurasiantimes.com

 

[zooterkin]

UK’s Challenger II Tanks “Outperform” U.S. Abrams In Ukraine War; Tank Commander Hails British MBTs.

Ukrainian soldiers stationed in the Kursk region have reportedly ‘highly praised’ the UK-supplied Challenger II tanks, underlining their pinpoint accuracy, advanced fire control system, and survivability in the harsh battlefield conditions.

The tanks, which were delivered to Ukraine by Great Britain in 2023, are now serving with the 82nd Airborne Assault Bukovyna Brigade

The onboard computer acts as the tank’s “brain” and allows the crew to make highly accurate shots at distances of up to 10 kilometers. “It works like a sniper,” Oleksandr explained.

Full story

UK's Challenger II Tanks "Outperform" U.S. Abrams In Ukraine War; Tank Commander Hails British MBTs

Ukrainian soldiers stationed in the Kursk region have reportedly ‘highly praised’ the UK-supplied Challenger II tanks, underlining their pinpoint accuracy, advanced fire control system, and survivability in the harsh battlefield conditions. The tanks, which were delivered to Ukraine by Great...

www.eurasiantimes.com

Nice to know we can still make things that work, even if it's something I'd prefer we didn't need. As an aside, I'm pretty sure I saw some of those tanks on their way to Southampton docks last year.

 

[Andy_Ross]

And they are the old ones
Challenger 3 is even better.

Challenger tanks destroyed more than 300 Iraqi tanks without losing a single Challenger.

An Iraqi tank was by a Challenger from over 5,100 meters (more than 3 miles.)
The longest range kill was at 4,700 meters—still the longest tank-on-tank kill.

The rifled gun has more accuracy and better round stability at extreme ranges compared to the US and German smoothbore gun.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

10km is a surprise. It's a really excellent gun out to 3 or 4km sure, but 10 sounds like a bit of hyperbole if you're talking about a tank-sized target. Maybe buildings at that range.

Anyway if they're significantly more useful than other MBTs then the Ukrainians need more, but I'm not sure we have many to send. About half our fleet are being converted to Challenger 3 and the other half need some work (or a lot of work) to make them operational from what I heard.

 

[a_unique_person]

A far-right, pro-Russia candidate is set for a shock victory in the first round of Romania's presidential election.

Georgescu, who belongs to no party, has sworn to end what he calls subservience to the European Union and Nato, especially on support for Ukraine.

The strong showing of Georgescu, who has no party of his own, and campaigned largely on the social media platform TikTok, came as the biggest surprise of the election.

Another example of voting for the face eating leopard.

Far-right candidate takes shock lead in Romania presidential election

Calin Georgescu, a NATO and EU critic, is ahead in the first round of voting, overtaking the prime minister.

www.bbc.co.uk

That's how modern democracy works. Put forward a negative enough message about your opponent and you win. Subservience to Russia is all peaches and cream by default.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

The thing that raised my eyebrows was that the winner, Georgescu, had previously been polling around 5%.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

And they are the old ones
Challenger 3 is even better.

Challenger tanks destroyed more than 300 Iraqi tanks without losing a single Challenger.

An Iraqi tank was by a Challenger from over 5,100 meters (more than 3 miles.)
The longest range kill was at 4,700 meters—still the longest tank-on-tank kill.

The rifled gun has more accuracy and better round stability at extreme ranges compared to the US and German smoothbore gun.

Challengers were built to fill in the need within NATO for a longer range tank and also with the realisation that the UK was incapable of mass producing either tanks or spares quickly (largely due to Thatcherism). While individual Challengers have been performing well in Ukraine, they've been relegated to roles further back from the front lines due to supply issues.

 

[Andy_Ross]

It's doing the job it was designed to do. It outranges any of the Russian tanks and can hit them before they can even see it with their poor quality optics.
It sits hull down and uses it's long range accuracy and sensors to snipe the enemy.

Why get in closer and let them shoot back?

 

[SpitfireIX]

A far-right, pro-Russia candidate is set for a shock victory in the first round of Romania's presidential election.

Georgescu, who belongs to no party, has sworn to end what he calls subservience to the European Union and Nato, especially on support for Ukraine.

The strong showing of Georgescu, who has no party of his own, and campaigned largely on the social media platform TikTok, came as the biggest surprise of the election.

Another example of voting for the face eating leopard.

Far-right candidate takes shock lead in Romania presidential election

Calin Georgescu, a NATO and EU critic, is ahead in the first round of voting, overtaking the prime minister.

www.bbc.co.uk

This paragraph in the BBC article doesn't make any sense:

If Elena Lasconi gets through to the second round, as expected, many supporters of the Social Democrats, especially in rural areas, would find it difficult to support such a liberal, progressive figure.

Multiple sources characterize Lasconi's party, Save Romania Union, as center-right, in fact a previous paragraph in the same article refers to her as a "centre-right candidate." It's the Social Democrats who are center-left to left (except on social issues, according to Wikipedia). So, presumably, most of Ciolacu's supporters will hold their noses and vote for her.

 

[SpitfireIX]

Nice to know we can still make things that work, even if it's something I'd prefer we didn't need. As an aside, I'm pretty sure I saw some of those tanks on their way to Southampton docks last year.

Nah, you Brits have never made any military hardware that's worth a damn.

 

[jimbob]

Nah, you Brits have never made any military hardware that's worth a damn.

I see what you did there.

At least we didn't give Ukraine any SA-80s