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[Continuation] The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 9

lobosrul5 said:
Those are not tactics that the Red Army made much use of later in the war. Ie the Battle of Kursk, or Operation Bagration. They would've been bled out had they relied on human wave tactics to retake all of their lost land, plus The Third Reich.
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I believe I have read about human wave tactics used in the campaign to take Budapest in 1945. Masses of punitive battalions were sent forward to clear mines by stepping on them, and to expose enemy positions. Commanders were sentenced to join the punitive battalions if they had too few casualties in their units (This happened at Berlin too).
 
a_unique_person said:
Ukraine has limited artillery shells and other supplies. Without them they cannot do the impossible and stop the Russians.

Meanwhile in Russia the poorer people are freezing to death as the infrastructure crumbles due to the focus on the invasion.

Putin is weakened even if he wins. Small consolation for the Ukrainians.
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Both sides have already lost. The question is how badly.
 
SpitfireIX said:
Both sides have already lost. The question is how badly.
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That's like saying Russia lost because Napoleon got all the way to Moscow. Or the US lost because Japan bombed Pearl Harbor.

I think it's fair to say that whether Ukraine wins or loses, Russia has already failed in its strategic objectives, without hope of recovery. And that therefore it makes sense to say that Russia has lost in a very real way, that Ukraine has not (yet).
 
Ziggurat said:
I wouldn't say that. The Soviets used human wave attacks against the Germans, and they won. Human wave tactics are what you use when your troops are of low quality and you're short on material, which isn't a good position to be in, but that doesn't guarantee failure.

Note, I'm not saying that Russia will win. Only that their willingness to sacrifice their soldiers doesn't demonstrate they will lose either.
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One of the great fallacies and part of the mythology of WW2.

It wasn't the 'human wave' tactics that beat the Germans, the Soviets didn't start to have any real success until they started using proper combined arms and planned attacks and equipped their forces with better quality equipment than the Germans were fielding.
 
steenkh said:
I believe I have read about human wave tactics used in the campaign to take Budapest in 1945. Masses of punitive battalions were sent forward to clear mines by stepping on them, and to expose enemy positions. Commanders were sentenced to join the punitive battalions if they had too few casualties in their units (This happened at Berlin too).
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More mythology
 
A genuine human wave attack sounds like nothing more than a target-rich environment. Perhaps "human wave" is one of those hyperbolic phrases that people use too much.
 
Andy_Ross said:
It wasn't the 'human wave' tactics that beat the Germans
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I didn’t say it was. All I said is they used it, and they won. Which disproves the assertion that using it indicates you will lose. Using it against Ukraine probably isn’t a good idea either, but they could still win (meaning holding onto significant Ukrainian territory when the conflict ends).
 
A Russian transport plane has crashed near the Ukraine border, no survivors. What is in question presently is, what was on board, men or missiles, and what brought it down?
CNN said:
But, there are conflicting reports about who or what was on board. Russian state media reported that 65 Ukrainian servicemen were on the plane, being flown to Belgorod ahead of a prisoner swap.

Ukraine says the IL-76 that crashed in Belgorod was carrying missiles for the S-300 air defense system, according to the official Ukrainian information service, quoting a source in the Ukrainian armed forces.
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https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-military-plane-belgorod-ukraine-updates-intl/index.html
 
a_unique_person said:
First they have to eject Hungary from the EU and NATO. Orban is a fascist and has to go.
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As I mentioned in the NATO thread, the fact that Hungary is in the EU is a benefit in this case, as the EU has many potential carrots and sticks available to persuade Orbán to approve Sweden's NATO membership.

Further, Orbán has little to gain by continuing to hold up Sweden's accession. Any potential goodwill from Putin went out the window (so to speak) when Hungary approved Finland's membership.

ETA: Also, sadly, there's no provision in either the EU or NATO for expelling a member.
 
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Hungary outside the EU and NATO would be even more of a burden on those institutions. The last thing Europe needs is another Belarus on its border. I'm sure they wish they could have brought Lukashenko on-side, too.
 
theprestige said:
Hungary outside the EU and NATO would be even more of a burden on those institutions. The last thing Europe needs is another Belarus on its border. I'm sure they wish they could have brought Lukashenko on-side, too.
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Yeah, good point. The devil you know......
 
Ukraine shot down an IL-76 (big four engine airplane) near Belgorod. Il-76s are general purpose transports, used for both cargo and military passengers.

The shoot-down of the plane is not denied but the contents of the plane are in dispute.

Ukraine claims that the plane was transporting weapons, possibly from Iran. Russia claims it was transporting Ukrainian POWs for a prisoner exchange, as many as 80 of them.

Russia has published a list of the names of the POWs killed in the crash. A basic name check shows that a bunch of the names are of former POWs who were exchanged a few weeks ago.

Ukrainians are doubtful, pointing out that in previous exchanges all soldiers were transported by train, and when they have transported POW by air the guard/POW ratio was much higher than what the Russians are claiming.

The Russians are going for a full court press with the killed POW thing, claiming that Ukraine knew full well that the plane was full of POWs because Russia had informed them of it as part of the planning for the exchange. The pro-Russian social media world is pushing really hard on this, frothing at the mouth and eye-rolling and loud loud LOUD.

So I think this will dominate the news from Ukraine for at least a week or two. They are equating it to the downing of the Dutch airline (MH-17) in 2014.

(The odd part is that the plane was heading north away from Belogorad and Ukraine, deeper into Russia. Like it had already dropped off its cargo or passengers. My wildly uninformed peanut gallery 2 cents is that both claims are wrong, the plane was empty).
 
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crescent said:
Ukraine shot down an IL-76 (big four engine airplane) near Belgorod. Il-76s are general purpose transports, used for both cargo and military passengers.

The shoot-down of the plane is not denied but the contents of the plane are in dispute.

Ukraine claims that the plane was transporting weapons, possibly from Iran. Russia claims it was transporting Ukrainian POWs for a prisoner exchange, as many as 80 of them.

Russia has published a list of the names of the POWs killed in the crash. A basic name check shows that a bunch of the names are of former POWs who were exchanged a few weeks ago.

Ukrainians are doubtful, pointing out that in previous exchanges all soldiers were transported by train.

The Russians are going for a full court press with the killed POW thing, claiming that Ukraine knew full well that the plane was full of POWs because Russia had informed them of it as part of the planning for the exchange. The pro-Russian social media world is pushing really hard on this, frothing at the mouth and eye-rolling and loud loud LOUD.

So I think this will dominate the news from Ukraine for at least a week or two. They are equating it to the downing of the Dutch airline (MH-17) in 2014. (The odd part is that the plane was heading north away from Belogorad and Ukraine, deeper into Russia. Like it had already dropped off its cargo or passengers. My wildly uninformed peanut gallery 2 cents is that both claims are wrong, the plane was empty).
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Even were it to have been full of Ukrainian POW's (highly dubious), this is nothing like MH-17. Russian propaganda loves to forget they are at war whenever Ukraine hits something they think should be out of bounds.
 
lobosrul5 said:
Even were it to have been full of Ukrainian POW's (highly dubious), this is nothing like MH-17. Russian propaganda loves to forget they are at war whenever Ukraine hits something they think should be out of bounds.
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....and in other news, water is wet.

But the Ru-leaning people don't care.

In their worldview MH-17 was intentionally shot down by Ukraine with the specific intent of blaming Russia. And a huge hunk of the world still believes that. So in their worldview, Ukraine has done it again.

This will be brought up by Ru-leaning politicians everywhere - both far left and far right. The U.N., the E.U., the U.S. Presidential race. One of the values of forums like this is the ability to get ahead of that sort of deliberate misinformation.

For example I think this will absolutely get caught up in the current American debate over the next aid package to Ukraine, the role of Hungary in the EU and Hungarian acceptance of Sweden into NATO.

Misinformation need not be true to have a ginormous impact, and my sense is that this claim will be pushed very, very, very hard and will have a big impact.
 
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crescent said:
....and in other news, water is wet.

But the Ru-leaning people don't care.

In their worldview MH-17 was intentionally shot down by Ukraine with the specific intent of blaming Russia. And a huge hunk of the world still believes that. So in their worldview, Ukraine has done it again.

This will be brought up by Ru-leaning politicians everywhere - both far left and far right. The U.N., the E.U., the U.S. Presidential race. One of the values of forums like this is the ability to get ahead of that sort of deliberate misinformation.

For example I think this will absolutely get caught up in the current American debate over the next aid package to Ukraine, the role of Hungary in the EU and Hungarian acceptance of Sweden into NATO.

Misinformation need not be true to have a ginormous impact, and my sense is that this claim will be pushed very very very hard and will have a big impact.
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JFC, as if the MAGA crowd couldn't make me puke any more. If their next excuse is... bbbbbuttt the Ukrainians shot down a Russian military transport just minding its own business. How horribly inhumane! It. Is. A. War!
 
lobosrul5 said:
JFC, as if the MAGA crowd couldn't make me puke any more. If their next excuse is... bbbbbuttt the Ukrainians shot down a Russian military transport just minding its own business. How horribly inhumane! It. Is. A. War!
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The phrasing I'm seeing is... bbbbbuttt the Ukrainians murdered a plane load of their own soldiers!

The claims they are pushing are that:
1: The plane was loaded with POWs for an exchange.
2: Ukraine knew that
3: Maybe some sort of agreement about flying that plane into Belgorod because of #1
4: So those mad-dog Ukrainians broke the agreement from #3 and just murdered 60+ of their own soldiers. Terrorism!

Likely all four points are false. Video of the wreckage shows no bodies.
 
Poor Russia. Always the victim. Won't someone please think of the Russians?


That aside, it's why they want to Trump to win. It's not because they can control Trump (even if he's easily bought/flattered/etc. he also doesn't like to be told what to do and can turn on an ally in an instant (in fact, that's why I don't buy conspiracies that the Russians own him (insert 3rd level parentheses here, but I digress))). They want him to win, because he lies in the same way. It spreads the poison. Nothing they say has to be true, because the whole exercise makes getting at the truth too exhausting for the average information consumer. In the end, the truth becomes irrelevant!
 
lobosrul5 said:
I'm thinking the former is 10000 times more likely than the latter. He's also now on the record for abandoning Taiwan to Xi.
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Oh, I'd agree the former is more likely. However, I wouldn't rule some other course of action out. Trump has historically turned on allies on a dime! If either Putin or Xi failed to sufficiently fluff him, he could turn on them.
 
lobosrul5 said:
Even were it to have been full of Ukrainian POW's (highly dubious), this is nothing like MH-17. Russian propaganda loves to forget they are at war whenever Ukraine hits something they think should be out of bounds.
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Another thing making this unlikely is that a country with a working railroad system is not likely to move around POWs in aircraft. There is no rush and that is expensive.
 
icerat said:
They're not so much trying to "win" though as simply try to wear out the "enemy" and their supporters to the point where they simply don't think it's worth the cost any more, negotiations occur, they get to keep much of what they've taken.

Rinse and repeat.

It's why, if Ukraine had fallen, there is no doubt in my mind a war with the Baltic states was inevitable - the risk assessment in Moscow will be that the west isn't willing to fight as hard and as long as Russia, and will eventually negotiate something, even in an attack on NATO.

That risk remains unless Russia is thoroughly defeated.

The Kremlin simply doesn't care about the cost, human or otherwise.
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They are betting their will to throw away lives will out last Ukraine's willingness to resist. Not a good bet.

That said, Ukraine needs to work on shortening the length of the front to outlast the Russians. A nearly 1000 km front line works better for the side with the larger number of people.
 
Ziggurat said:
I didn’t say it was. All I said is they used it, and they won. Which disproves the assertion that using it indicates you will lose. Using it against Ukraine probably isn’t a good idea either, but they could still win (meaning holding onto significant Ukrainian territory when the conflict ends).
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The only way Russia wins this is if they can inflict enough casualties to bleed Ukraine white. By using human wave attacks, the Russians are the ones ending up on with an over weighted end of the friendly to enemy loss ratios that should favor them. The current strategy is one that likely collapses when the army starts to stage larger scale revolts that won't end the same way Wagner failed.

That does not mean a revolt will topple the govrenment. But it will destroy Russia's ability to fight faster than anything Ukraine can do on the battlefield.
 
Doubt said:
Another thing making this unlikely is that a country with a working railroad system is not likely to move around POWs in aircraft. There is no rush and that is expensive.
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Also, according to Euromaidan press https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/01/24/ukraine-military-on-russian-il-76-hints-but-no-clarity/

"... as one Ukrainian OSINT analyst told RBC-Ukraine, the crashed IL-76 aircraft with registration number RA-78830 previously flew through Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea and Iran, disappeared from radars near Syria, and then reappeared over Belgorod."

That would be quite a joyride. (They claim this is evidence for the plan being used for arms transfer.)
 
Doubt said:
The only way Russia wins this is if they can inflict enough casualties to bleed Ukraine white.
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I don't think that's the only way they can win. They can also win (again, meaning maintaining control over a significant fraction of Ukrainian territory) if the west scales back its supply of weapons and ammunition.

By using human wave attacks, the Russians are the ones ending up on with an over weighted end of the friendly to enemy loss ratios that should favor them.
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Again, I'm not saying that this is a very effective tactic. But it's also not the only thing they're doing. Nor am I predicting that Russia will win, only that it's still possible.

The current strategy is one that likely collapses when the army starts to stage larger scale revolts that won't end the same way Wagner failed.
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That would be nice, but I wouldn't count on it. The most hoped for outcomes frequently don't come to pass.
 
I don't think that counts as a win for Moscow. It just shifts a bit, the venue of the "occupied territory" problem this special military operation was ostensibly supposed to solve. Meanwhile they've eaten a strategic bowl of dicks to accomplish this little. It's a pyrrhic victory, without the victory part. Subjugation of Ukraine is off the table. Ukraine continues to deepen its ties with Europe and NATO. NATO is expanding, both de jure and de facto. European energy markets are weaning off Russian products, and that commercial relationship has soured. Control of the Black Sea is off the table. The freedom of Sevastopol is off the table. Gaining a few hundred square miles more of contested territory, while losing Uncontested Sevastopol, has to be considered a defeat for Russia, no matter how much they proclaim "I meant to do that!" in extremis.

Moscow has lost status, influence, and real military power, in ways that will be very difficult to recover from, for decades. Instead of clawing their way out of their economic incident pit, they're slipping further in. Maybe if they had all of Ukraine to show for it, the way they have Belarus, it would be worth it. Ukraine could still lose this, but I think it's past the point where Moscow can actually win.
 
theprestige said:
I don't think that counts as a win for Moscow.
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At this point, I think it would. I think Putin has given up on the original stated goals, and this is what he's aiming for now.

Meanwhile they've eaten a strategic bowl of dicks to accomplish this little. It's a pyrrhic victory, without the victory part.
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I agree to a significant extent, but in some ways that's all sunk costs now. From this point going forward, what can Russia hope to achieve? Holding onto territory. That's what victory consists of now, despite the losses they've already taken.

Subjugation of Ukraine is off the table. Ukraine continues to deepen its ties with Europe and NATO. NATO is expanding, both de jure and de facto. European energy markets are weaning off Russian products, and that commercial relationship has soured. Control of the Black Sea is off the table.
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I agree. But these are all basically baked in now. It's reasonable to reconsider what victory and defeat mean in terms of what the two parties are trying to achieve now, not simply what their original goals were. Ukraine's original goal was simply to survive, now it's to retake all the territory they ever lost. Yes, a Russian victory in terms of current goals can still mean defeat in terms of original goals, and I agree that they've suffered defeat in terms of those original goals, but the current conversation is focused on the current goals, not the original ones. This isn't the only way to look at the problem, but it's still a worthwhile way to. And I was explicit about what I meant by a Russian victory precisely to distinguish those current goals from the original ones.

The freedom of Sevastopol is off the table.
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I don't think Putin has ever been interested in freedom. But I don't think control of Sevastopol is off the table, not yet.
 
I guess my view is that the new goal is simply making a virtue of necessity. They wanted to solve the occupied territory problem by subjugating the rest of the country and cutting it off from western support. In practical terms, they're actually worse off than they were before the invasion.

I'm also worried that if we accept Moscow's new, sour grapes formulation, we'll be less likely to continue supporting Ukraine, if they want to keep up the deep strikes into Crimea and beyond.
 
General Zaluzhny (Ukrainian Armed Frorces Commander in Chief) may have been fired. Or not fired. Or something.

Ukrainian official channels are claiming that he has not been fired. But a few Ukr parliamentarians are insisting that he has been. No comment from either Zelensky nor Zaluzhny themselves. Journalists with "inside sources" all leaked the same information at about the same time and it seemed certain.

Now everybody seems to be scrambling to figure out what happened. Maybe a wildly successful Russian disinformation operation, or maybe Zelensky actually demanded his resignation and expected him to comply such that it was already leaked to the press but then Zaluzhny refused.

Who knows. He's still there, but the pro-Russian trolls are still dancing around like idiot monkeys celebrating his demise. Which hasn't happened.
 
So the collapse in support has happened far sooner than I predicted. It's because I wasn't being smart. Trump doesn't even need to be in office to scupper a border deal!

I'd say it's time for Ukraine to give up, if Russia wasn't so damned incompetent to begin with! I've seen some saying that NATO has underestimated Russia's ability to produce war materiel. Counter to that, Russia needs to spend 30% of its budget next year on the war (and counting internal security maybe up to 40%). How long can that be sustained? At this point, for both sides, it's a case of having to hold on until the other reaches the bottom.

I make no predictions at this time.
 
Jimbo07 said:
I'd say it's time for Ukraine to give up, if Russia wasn't so damned incompetent to begin with!
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When the option is fight or die, "give up" is never an option.

Europe is stepping up support in response to the Putin puppets in the GOP,
while Russia continues to trade hundreds of lives for square meters of land.

We'll see what happens with the purported new Russian Kharkiv offensive, but it mostly appears to all be about political theatre prior to the Russian election.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones are increasingly taking the war to Russian cities.
 
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