Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

[a_unique_person]

But, didn't you just point out that Russia and Belarus were able to manufacture about 50% of the bearings they buy?

Of course, they can still import from friendly or neutral countries.

There are limits to the West's attempted dictatorship on the world.

The growth of NATO was not because NATO conquered anyone. It was because countries begged to be a part of NATO. I'm the most recent years because they feared Russia would try to conquer them.

 

[Doubt]

Bearing industry news site bearing-news.com says about 50% of Russian bearings are imported. Which isn't "no domestic producers" but is apparently still a big enough gap to cause problems for Russian industry.

https://www.bearing-news.com/bearing-industry-update-on-ukraine-russia-conflict-part-2-may-2022/

The story is a year old. Might be interesting to look up how they are doing now.

Never been inside a ball bearing plant. I have spent a lot of time in plants that made tapered bearings. Mostly in the US but also one plant in India. My former employer also built some furnaces for Russia but for the same customer as the one in India. I was a bit disappointed that I did not get to work on that one.

Bearings are hard to make. Overall I would say that compared to gears they are about 50% harder to produce. Machining alone is about as difficult as gears. But then the rest of the specifications get more difficult as you combine pieces.

Here is the fun part. Railroad cars use lots of bearings. The standards are as tight as automotive ones but the size and production rates are lower. Not sure what the lifespan is on those bearings. But this might cause the Russian railroads some problems.

And now I will have to look up news on Brenco/Amsted Rail. The stuff I did not get to work on in Russia was for them.

Edited to add:

https://www.amstedrail.com/global-presence/

AMSTED RAIL EXITS RUSSIA

Following the events in Ukraine, Amsted Rail has taken steps to exit our manufacturing position in our jointly owned bearing factory in Saratov, Russia. Amsted Rail has also notified our employees that we will be closing our office in Moscow, Russia.

 

[steenkh]

And now I will have to look up news on Brenco/Amsted Rail. The stuff I did not get to work on in Russia was for them.

Edited to add:

https://www.amstedrail.com/global-presence/

I wonder if that will have any effect on Russian ball bearing production, because I doubt that the manufacturing plant will be dismantled and taken out of the country. Instead it will be taken over at a cheap price by a Russian oligarch and continue to produce ball bearings.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

I wonder if that will have any effect on Russian ball bearing production, because I doubt that the manufacturing plant will be dismantled and taken out of the country. Instead it will be taken over at a cheap price by a Russian oligarch and continue to produce ball bearings.

But now with nobody who knows what they're doing working at the plant.

 

[erwinl]

But now with nobody who knows what they're doing working at the plant.

Are you sure?
The way I read it, Amstedrail was only (jointly) owner of the Russian plant. That would mean the workers would be local and thus still available with their knowledge (assuming they haven’t been send off to ‘liberate’ Ukraine).
Now. How much this plant was dependable on a steady stream of foreign raw materials, is another question. I guess those would have dried up after Amsted departed.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Are you sure?
The way I read it, Amstedrail was only (jointly) owner of the Russian plant. That would mean the workers would be local and thus still available with their knowledge (assuming they haven’t been send off to ‘liberate’ Ukraine).
Now. How much this plant was dependable on a steady stream of foreign raw materials, is another question. I guess those would have dried up after Amsted departed.

As with the vast majority of Russian heavy industry pre-war the plant was likely heavily dependent on foreign labour in skilled positions, such as engineers and those needed to repair/replace machinery.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Roller bearing production isn't the same as ball bearing production.
Making the steel balls is a complex specialized process.

In WW2 German ball bearing factories were a high priority bombing target

 

[Doubt]

Different process. But neither one is easy.

The Germans changed a lot of their designs to use roller bearings after the ball bearing plants were bombed. The roller bearings don't last as long.

 

[Doubt]

As with the vast majority of Russian heavy industry pre-war the plant was likely heavily dependent on foreign labour in skilled positions, such as engineers and those needed to repair/replace machinery.

They will be able to keep producing for a while. The issue will be getting parts for the cutting and casting equipment in the case of roller bearings.

They can keep going by cheating a bit. At least three of the furnaces in Saratov used robots to move parts to an external quench press. A human can't do that job as fast as the robot. The result is softer steel that will wear out sooner. The predicted life spans of the parts won't be met and you get more derailed cars leading to a demand for more bearings.

Many more robots in other steps of production.

Looked up the expected life span. 2000 hours of use is normal. It will take a while for this issue to emerg on rail cars. But it should get worse at an increasing rate once it gets started.

For ball bearing plants, I don't know the equipment so I'm not sure where the failures will happen.

 

[Andy_Ross]

They will be able to keep producing for a while. The issue will be getting parts for the cutting and casting equipment in the case of roller bearings.

They can keep going by cheating a bit. At least three of the furnaces in Saratov used robots to move parts to an external quench press. A human can't do that job as fast as the robot. The result is softer steel that will wear out sooner. The predicted life spans of the parts won't be met and you get more derailed cars leading to a demand for more bearings.

Many more robots in other steps of production.

Looked up the expected life span. 2000 hours of use is normal. It will take a while for this issue to emerg on rail cars. But it should get worse at an increasing rate once it gets started.

For ball bearing plants, I don't know the equipment so I'm not sure where the failures will happen.

The video I linked is good at showing the stages of manufacture. There's quite a few processes to get them perfectly spherical, polished and heat treated. It's all dedicated machinery

 

[lobosrul5]

Roller bearing production isn't the same as ball bearing production.
Making the steel balls is a complex specialized process.

In WW2 German ball bearing factories were a high priority bombing target

And it wasn't very effective at disrupting German War production. Though it might have been with more targeted raids.

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/a...One of the most quoted,Air Force been able to

 

[lobosrul5]

Hey Michel H, why haven't you condemned the children Russia murdered yesterday?

 

[lobosrul5]

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https://i.redd.it/kijun3kcf9jb1.jpg

Photo of the bomber Russia claimed was just "damaged"... I think its not salvageable.

 

[Andy_Ross]

That'll buff out

 

[Doubt]

Roller bearing production isn't the same as ball bearing production.
Making the steel balls is a complex specialized process.

In WW2 German ball bearing factories were a high priority bombing target

Even though I have not spent time in a ball bearing plant, I can tell you they left out a lot.

The process shown starts off the same as those used for making fasteners such as screws and bolts. There is another process used for small bearings that makes use of a shot tower where molten metal is dropped through the tower and forms the ball as the metals falls. I would tend to trust the shot tower method to get a good result over that press method. The press will create a lot of internal stress that can mostly, but not entirely, be relieved during heat treating.

Heat treating they showed as a cartoon and left out one thing I would really like to see. Also they are a bit off on what happens in the crystal structure, but that is not really important here. Once you heat past around 1330 F or 720 C, the metal changes from a ferritic crystal to one called austenite. Austenite is pretty week. I would be worried about the balls sagging slightly under their own weight. What I want to see is how they prevent that from happening.

This is getting to be too much of a tangent. But the process shown is one the Russians could keep going for a long time. biggest issue they might have is those deburring system plates. But this does not show us how those are made and what the material composition is.

 

[Aridas]

To poke back more at Ukraine, I think that it's already been poked at here, but not in depth. It looks like Ukraine will be getting 42 F-16s from the Netherlands and 19 from Denmark. It's nice, but... here's a bit more of an analysis of some of the challenges that arise from such. Not a shouldn't do it kind of thing, of course, so much as tempered expectations thing.

Ukraine Update: Ukraine gets its F-16s, but big challenges lie ahead

To poke at a couple issues noted -

First of all, Ukraine could only muster up eight pilots for initial training. Turns out, you need to speak English to read the manuals and receive instruction in NATO’s official language. (French is also an official NATO language, but really, it’s just English.) Ukraine has gotten by using translators for other kind of systems training, like HIMARS rocket artillery and Patriot air defenses, but you can’t have a translator up with you in a single-seat jet fighter while receiving instructions from ground crews and instructors. Apparently, no one in Ukraine thought it would be helpful to begin a large-scale English-language training effort for key personnel.

Now that training manuals have been officially authorized for Ukraine, they are undoubtedly in the process of translating them for the next batch of pilots, who will almost certainly be trained by these initial eight. Great! But that means that these initial eight won’t be flying combat missions. They’ll be training the rest of the necessary pilots, further delaying their introduction into the battlefield. No one can blame the West for that.

Yeah, various trainings likely should have started much earlier and we likely shouldn't be expecting Ukraine to obtain air superiority with them for a fair while, if at all. There's also strain on logistics and support manpower, given the sheer number of highly skilled support personnel required on the maintenance side. That's a lot of training, too.

It's also highly doubtful that Ukraine will be able to use them to execute complex or combined arms maneuvers for a fair while, as well. That's quite a bit of training and requires coordination that Ukraine hasn't yet demonstrated the ability to pull off.

There's also the costs to use -

An F-16 cost $27,000 to fly for one hour.

And each hour it flies, it requires 17 man-hours of maintenance. These older Dutch and Danish F-16s might require even more maintenance, given they entered service in 1979 and 1980, respectively, so over 40 years old.

That’s not including the cost of ordinance.

In short, they're likely to be slow to give returns and rather expensive on top of that in a case where Ukraine doesn't actually have unlimited funds, resources, and time.

With that said, there is definite potential value once they're more in play. Russia's Black Sea fleet will likely have much more to fear, for example, and Russia's air equipment will be much more threatened. Still, ATACMS might be a generally more useful, both immediately and long-term, and cost effective addition to Ukraine's arsenal than F-16s. Too bad it's not been approved yet.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Romania has been chosen as the main training base

 

[lobosrul5]

To poke back more at Ukraine, I think that it's already been poked at here, but not in depth. It looks like Ukraine will be getting 42 F-16s from the Netherlands and 19 from Denmark. It's nice, but... here's a bit more of an analysis of some of the challenges that arise from such. Not a shouldn't do it kind of thing, of course, so much as tempered expectations thing.

Ukraine Update: Ukraine gets its F-16s, but big challenges lie ahead

To poke at a couple issues noted -



Yeah, various trainings likely should have started much earlier and we likely shouldn't be expecting Ukraine to obtain air superiority with them for a fair while, if at all. There's also strain on logistics and support manpower, given the sheer number of highly skilled support personnel required on the maintenance side. That's a lot of training, too.

It's also highly doubtful that Ukraine will be able to use them to execute complex or combined arms maneuvers for a fair while, as well. That's quite a bit of training and requires coordination that Ukraine hasn't yet demonstrated the ability to pull off.

There's also the costs to use -



In short, they're likely to be slow to give returns and rather expensive on top of that in a case where Ukraine doesn't actually have unlimited funds, resources, and time.

With that said, there is definite potential value once they're more in play. Russia's Black Sea fleet will likely have much more to fear, for example, and Russia's air equipment will be much more threatened. Still, ATACMS might be a generally more useful, both immediately and long-term, and cost effective addition to Ukraine's arsenal than F-16s. Too bad it's not been approved yet.

I wonder how many civilian pilots Ukraine will recruit because they'd pretty much have to already spoken "aviation English", if they flew internationally anyways. That should give them a leg up. As far as cost and man hours of maintenance, I wonder how that compares to Soviet jets. And if that number is idealized. In other words, it's the recommendation but during times of war maybe you can get away with less.

But yeah hopefully we also get them ATACMS, and F-16s can be reserved for missions that can't be accomplished with them.

 

[William Parcher]

Is Russia using any kind of an air force against Ukraine, and if not, why?

 

[Aridas]

Is Russia using any kind of an air force against Ukraine, and if not, why?

They are.

Russia was never able to obtain air superiority, though, and nor have they demonstrated the ability to pull off complex/cooperative missions. After losing a bunch of aircraft, their air force has pretty much ended up doing missions where they fly to somewhere safely under Russian control, launch missiles at Ukraine (very frequently at civilian targets), and then retreat, all staying well out of Ukraine's range to target them. Many of the missiles that we keep hearing that Ukraine's shot down or not shot down were launched in that manner. The helicopters being used against Ukraine on the southern front are a bit of a deviation from that norm, though, but largely make up for that by flying very low before launching their payload and quickly retreating, which again makes it difficult for Ukraine to target them. Having an F-16 or couple on patrol relatively nearby would likely deter even that for their helicopters or lead to a lot more Russian helicopters being shot down. Too bad training and supply wasn't started sooner so they'd have them now, but that's just the way things are at present. That's not fully a criticism on the supply side, though, given that the logistics of supplying planes involves quite the opportunity cost and there are various other more essential supplies that have largely been focused upon on the logistics side of things. The training side, on the other hand, likely deserves the full brunt of criticism for not getting things rolling sooner than they did.

 

[Reformed Offlian]

Hey Michel H, why haven't you condemned the children Russia murdered yesterday?

Very likely he has. But you probably meant to ask why he hasn't condemned Russia's killing of those children.

 

[Michel H]

Hey Michel H, why haven't you condemned the children Russia murdered yesterday?

A very sad event indeed.

One six-year-old girl was killed (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66554412 ).

The BBC article explains:

The theatre was hosting a gathering of drone manufacturers, the acting mayor of Chernihiv told the BBC.

"I understand that their aim was a military event taking place in the building of the drama theatre and that it was their target," Oleksandr Lomako said.

Ukraine is doing pretty much the same, although probably on a somewhat smaller scale:

Ukraine shells Donetsk with cluster munitions again (PHOTOS)
Civilians were killed and injured by US-supplied ordnance, authorities say

(https://www.rt.com/russia/581372-donetsk-shelling-civilians-killed/ ).

This is why I have proposed (like others) several times a peace plan (which involves territorial concessions by Ukraine), in order to end this conflict, but Ukrainian nationalistic fanaticism makes it hard to accept.

 

[arthwollipot]

This is why I have proposed (like others) several times a peace plan (which involves territorial concessions by Ukraine), in order to end this conflict, but Ukrainian nationalistic fanaticism makes it hard to accept.

Ukrainian fanaticism? They're defending their homeland! Tell me you wouldn't use every weapon at your disposal to defend your home from foreign invaders.

 

[Michel H]

Ukrainian fanaticism? They're defending their homeland! Tell me you wouldn't use every weapon at your disposal to defend your home from foreign invaders.

You may say they are defending their homeland, which is true to some extent, but they are also trying to impose Ukrainian rule to pro-Russian regions and imposing (with their powerful allies) severe economic sanctions on Russia.

This leads me to say that Ukraine doesn't deserve a single penny of financial aid, or a single rifle or a single bullet (as military support).

 

[angrysoba]

You may say they are defending their homeland, which is true to some extent, but they are also trying to impose Ukrainian rule to pro-Russian regions and imposing (with their powerful allies) severe economic sanctions on Russia.

This leads me to say that Ukraine doesn't deserve a single penny of financial aid, or a single rifle or a single bullet (as military support).

Because the right thing is for Russia to impose its rule on the uppity Ukrainians, right?

After they had the temerity to no longer what to be in the Russian sphere of influence, it was only fair that they cede ground to Russia. At least Crimea and Donbass until Russia feel like fighting again and can take Odessa and Kharkiv. Rinse and repeat all the way to Moldova and then onto Georgia.

 

[arthwollipot]

You may say they are defending their homeland, which is true to some extent...

True to some extent?

 

[Michel H]

True to some extent?

Yes, not fully true. I don't view Crimea (for example) as part of the Ukrainian homeland.

Here is my suggestion to you: stop providing aid to Ukraine, and see what happens. The war may be over after a few months because the Ukrainians will make the well known necessary concessions to Russsia (neutrality, Crimea to Russia and so on).

 

[arthwollipot]

Yes, not fully true. I don't view Crimea (for example) as part of the Ukrainian homeland.

Are you talking about 1783? Crimea has been Ukrainian since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.

 

[lobosrul5]

Yes, not fully true. I don't view Crimea (for example) as part of the Ukrainian homeland. Here is my suggestion to you: stop providing aid to Ukraine, and see what happens. The war may be over after a few months because the Ukrainians will make the well known necessary concessions to Russsia (neutrality, Crimea to Russia and so on).

Oh OK, well the issue is settled then

 

[jeremyp]

Yes, not fully true. I don't view Crimea (for example) as part of the Ukrainian homeland.

Here is my suggestion to you: stop providing aid to Ukraine, and see what happens. The war may be over after a few months because the Ukrainians will make the well known necessary concessions to Russsia (neutrality, Crimea to Russia and so on).

The necessary concessions are all on the Russian side. Russia needs to withdraw from Ukrainian territory before you even think about asking the population whether they want to be Russian or Ukrainian. I think after a year and a half of Russian military occupation, the answer is going to surprise you.

Then Putin has to be removed and Ukraine has to join NATO. No other course of action will protect against the inevitability of Russia breaking its word again.

 

[jimbob]

Zelensky said that he's willing to give up territorial claims to Belgorod* in exchange for membership of NATO.


*it has sometimes been part of Ukrainian territory, so as valid a claim as many Russian claims on territory.

 

[Craig4]

You may say they are defending their homeland, which is true to some extent, but they are also trying to impose Ukrainian rule to pro-Russian regions and imposing (with their powerful allies) severe economic sanctions on Russia.

This leads me to say that Ukraine doesn't deserve a single penny of financial aid, or a single rifle or a single bullet (as military support).

But there has never been a referendum in any part of Ukraine that voted to join Russia. I know what you'll say but none of those were referendums.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Seems appropriate

 

[Craig4]

Yes, not fully true. I don't view Crimea (for example) as part of the Ukrainian homeland.

Here is my suggestion to you: stop providing aid to Ukraine, and see what happens. The war may be over after a few months because the Ukrainians will make the well known necessary concessions to Russsia (neutrality, Crimea to Russia and so on).

Your view of Crimea doesn't matter. No one is checking with you.

We're not going to stop giving Ukraine weapons. In fact, there are reports that they are getting US Army cruise missiles that can range most of Crimea. If Russia wants peace all they have to do is return to their 2013 borders. It's that simple. Ukraine need not do anything. The war could end tomorrow if Russia withdrew. Russia is only getting weaker and Ukraine is only getting stronger. They need to do it now, while they can still get out of Crimea. Ukraine might even be willing to forego further attacks and allow a civilian evacuation corridor.

 

[Craig4]

A very sad event indeed.

One six-year-old girl was killed (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66554412 ).

The BBC article explains:


Ukraine is doing pretty much the same, although probably on a somewhat smaller scale:

(https://www.rt.com/russia/581372-donetsk-shelling-civilians-killed/ ).

This is why I have proposed (like others) several times a peace plan (which involves territorial concessions by Ukraine), in order to end this conflict, but Ukrainian nationalistic fanaticism makes it hard to accept.

No legitimate sources support your claim. That's just RT. That's nothing.

If the orcs don't like the shelling, they can leave. Ukraine won't attack them if they are on their side of the 2013 border.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Again Michel, we all know you're a vatnik. The only real question is do you KNOW you're spreading lies or are you actually gullible enough to believe the Kremlin mouthpieces at RT.

 

[Mike!]

Again Michel, we all know you're a vatnik. The only real question is do you KNOW you're spreading lies or are you actually gullible enough to believe the Kremlin mouthpieces at RT.

It's not a unique problem, some people are just overtly truth challenged.

https://assets3.cbsnewsstatic.com/h...-truth.png?v=0b4ae642db52799a178d90d83603a9dc

 

[jimbob]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2023

Not actually that surprising

Russian officials have reportedly drafted a plan to conduct a decade-long ethnic cleansing campaign in occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on August 20 that Ukrainian partisans gained access to a Russian occupation development document that stipulates a 300,000 increase in Mariupol’s overall population by 2035 through migration from Russia.[23] The Resistance Center reported that an existing preferential mortgage program for Russians who move to occupied Mariupol is a part of this resettlement effort.[24] Russian occupation officials have engaged in a series of efforts to attract Russian citizens to the occupied territories in Ukraine, although this alleged document is the most detailed account of the extent of the Kremlin’s long-term repopulation goals.[25] Mariupol had a pre-invasion population of over 400,000 people and roughly 120,000 residents remained in the occupied city as of May 2023.[26] The Russian siege of Mariupol during the first phases of the Russian full-scale invasion killed up to 25,000 Ukrainian civilians and displaced hundreds of thousands from the city.[27] Russian officials reportedly deported an additional 50,000 residents from the city to Russia and other occupied territories in the months following its capture.[28] The development document’s repopulation goals indicate that the Kremlin intends to remake Mariupol as a predominantly ethnic Russian city after engaging in a systematic and likely intentional effort to depopulate the city of ethnic Ukrainians. ISW continues to assess that the ongoing Russian efforts to deport Ukrainians and repopulate Ukrainian cities with imported Russian citizens likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in addition to being apparent violations of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.[29]

 

[theprestige]

Yes, not fully true. I don't view Crimea (for example) as part of the Ukrainian homeland.

Here is my suggestion to you: stop providing aid to Ukraine, and see what happens. The war may be over after a few months because the Ukrainians will make the well known necessary concessions to Russsia (neutrality, Crimea to Russia and so on).

All of your arguments about the bad attitude of Ukraine and its allies depend on an assumption of territorial boundaries that nobody here shares.

You can't just keep repeating these arguments over and over again. Nobody here agrees with you.

This thread is about the ongoing conflict, its progress and prospects. It's supposed to be updated with new information and analysis as new developments are reported from the front. It's not supposed to be about the same stale propaganda repeated over and over again.

Please return to the thread set aside for such rhetoric.

 

[crescent]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2023

Not actually that surprising

They also do the verbal ju-jitsu thing with the aftermath of such policies.

When Ukraine suggested that an Russians who arrived after 2014 would not be allowed to stay in liberated Ukraine, the Russian government accused Ukraine of planning "ethnic cleansing".

So Russia invades, forcibly removes much of the local population, replaces them with financially subsidized loyalists. Any attempt to reverse those population changes is then framed as human rights abuses - but the invasion, forced removals and population displacement that prompted it all is not (under Ru propaganda loved by tankies) a human rights issue at all.

The fascist right that supports Putin doesn't care about those sorts of labels, it just might makes right as far as they are concerned. But the far-left tankies eat that stuff up like morning cornflakes.