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Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

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They have been using the German amphibious bridging vehicles, they can join together as a bridge or be used as ferry rafts.
There's no need to build a fixed bridge close to the front

 
Andy_Ross said:
They have been using the German amphibious bridging vehicles, they can join together as a bridge or be used as ferry rafts.
There's no need to build a fixed bridge close to the front

Click to expand...

Oh, there is a reason to build one. Throughput. The more Ukraine puts on the left bank the more resources are needed to support them. Most of the various float bridges used by NATO can serve as rafts with a boat attached to them. But they won't be getting the most out of them until there is an actual bridge.

The one advantage of the rafts is artillery has a harder time targeting them. But the Russians have not been effective at targeting the Ukrainian troops on the left bank, which makes the whole situation a bit strange. They may as well put a bridges in place if they have not actually done so yet.

From a doctrine perspective the way to do this is keep working the rafts until at least one bridge is in place, then use the rafts to complete a second or third bridge and keep expanding with the bridges spread out enough to make sure they cannot all be shelled. Then make sure there is enough spare equipment on hand to repair damage.

If the Russians cannot dislodge troops on low ground with their backs to the river, they are going to have a hard time hitting bridges as well.
 
No need for a bridge when it comes to smaller scale operations, at least. A more fixed bridge would be greatly superior in capacity and weight limits, though, and securing the necessary area to keep it reasonably safe from destruction is probably the first major goal in the fight there. Once Ukraine has that, their logistics situation would improve immensely.
 
In the latest Ukrainian update on Russian losses, one number in particular was rather unusual. 839 Vehicles and Fuel Tanks, which brings the total to 10,198.

Probably a matter of adding previously unreported/unrecorded, but the number is still extremely unusual.
 
The former Russian prime minister turned Kremlin critic Mikhail Kasyanov has been added to a list of “foreign agents”, Russia’s justice ministry has announced. Kasyanov, who was the first head of Putin’s government in the early 2000s, now appears in the justice ministry’s register of foreign agents, a term reminiscent of the Soviet-era “enemy of the people”.
 
Over the course of the past day, Russian forces did not undertake offensive operations on the Lyman, Zaporizhzhia and Shakhtarsk fronts, but continued assaults on the Avdiivka front. A total of 52 clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces occurred on Thursday, 23 November.

Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Full report

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/23/7430094/index.amp
 
Andy_Ross said:
Over the course of the past day, Russian forces did not undertake offensive operations on the Lyman, Zaporizhzhia and Shakhtarsk fronts, but continued assaults on the Avdiivka front. A total of 52 clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces occurred on Thursday, 23 November.

Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Full report

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/23/7430094/index.amp
Click to expand...

....and the meat grinder grinds on. :(
 
lobosrul5 said:
What does that mean? They have not achieved anything so far with their Avdiivka offensive so far. Lets say they do, eventually take it, and it really does take them 100,000 casualties, 1000 tanks, and 2000 APC's. That proves Russia cannot win a conventional war against Ukraine given continued western support. Extrapolate those numbers against what it would take them to conquer all of Ukraine? Russia cannot suffer MILLIONS of casualties against Ukraine and not face a revolution. Right now they are taking prisoners, and immigrants. Outsiders, the dregs of their society to the middle an upper class Russians. To fully mobilize would mean digging into their mainstream. They can't.

They've been slowing down their attacks recently. Theres 3 reasons for that, that I can come up with:

1) They're stockpiling men and material for another big push.
2) They're reinforcing the frontline around the Dnipro as a result of Ukraine crossing it.
3) They're giving up.
Click to expand...

Well the link below suggests they were stockpiling drones, and have since started on Kyiv again. Biggest drone attack to date.
BBC News - Ukraine war: Kyiv hit by biggest drone attack since war began
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67529571
 
wobs said:
Well the link below suggests they were stockpiling drones, and have since started on Kyiv again. Biggest drone attack to date.
BBC News - Ukraine war: Kyiv hit by biggest drone attack since war began
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67529571
Click to expand...

75 of the cheap Iranian Shahed drones, all but one shot down.

I'm assuming they're hoping to get the Ukrainians to expend their anti aircraft stocks on the small stuff before they throw their expensive large missiles at power infrastructure as they did last Winter.
 
wobs said:
Well the link below suggests they were stockpiling drones, and have since started on Kyiv again. Biggest drone attack to date.
BBC News - Ukraine war: Kyiv hit by biggest drone attack since war began
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67529571
Click to expand...

Unrelated I think. Their plan was always going to be to hit Ukraine's power and gas infrastructure in the winter.
 
The Don said:
....and the meat grinder grinds on. : (
Click to expand...

Moscow is doing a depressingly good job of grinding up their own troops, with nothing to show for it, and no hope of victory. Not even a war of attrition will win it for them now. Not even the capture of Avdiivka at a ridiculously inflated price (inflated by Muscovite intransigence in the face of strategic failure) will secure their strategic objectives. This isn't even going to be a pyrrhic victory for Moscow.

I can't decide what's the more apt reference here, Lord Haw Haw or Grima Wormtongue.
 
Lots of interesting updates lately, including one whole Russian unit filming themselves refusing to attack in Kherson unless the colonel personally leads the suicide attack. Let's hope that the sentiment spreads.

And apparently to add to the threat caused by Ukraine drone, a Russian attack helicopter attacked Russian tanks. At the moment it seems nobody seems WTH that was about, with hypotheses floated like him working for Ukrainian intelligence. (But then why didn't he just fly it to Ukraine and collect his half a million?) Or maybe it was just given wrong data and thought it was a Ukraine breakthrough.

Also, big explosion at the Chelyabinsk tank factory, which is way too far from the front (over 2000km from it to Donetsk) to have been a drone or missile. I guess Ivan was smoking again.
 
HansMustermann said:
Lots of interesting updates lately, including one whole Russian unit filming themselves refusing to attack in Kherson unless the colonel personally leads the suicide attack. Let's hope that the sentiment spreads.

And apparently to add to the threat caused by Ukraine drone, a Russian attack helicopter attacked Russian tanks. At the moment it seems nobody seems WTH that was about, with hypotheses floated like him working for Ukrainian intelligence. (But then why didn't he just fly it to Ukraine and collect his half a million?) Or maybe it was just given wrong data and thought it was a Ukraine breakthrough.

Also, big explosion at the Chelyabinsk tank factory, which is way too far from the front (over 2000km from it to Donetsk) to have been a drone or missile. I guess Ivan was smoking again.
Click to expand...

Also, Russia is pulling S400s out of Kaliningrad

At this point, anyone who argues that NATO is a threat to Russia is either ignorant or straight-up lying. What's more, Russian leadership knows that, too!
 
The Don said:
That's a good example of vranyo IMO, it's clear that NATO present no material threat to Russia but the Russian people choose to believe reports that it is.
Click to expand...


You're not wrong, but in fairness, the Russians would like to be able to maintain strong border defenses to deter, or if necessary defend against, a NATO incursion occasioned by a Russian attack on, say, Estonia.
 
SpitfireIX said:
You're not wrong, but in fairness, the Russians would like to be able to maintain strong border defenses to deter, or if necessary defend against, a NATO incursion occasioned by a Russian attack on, say, Estonia.
Click to expand...

What this tells me is that Moscow has pretty much given up on attacking any NATO members any time soon.

I bet they're not pulling a lot of air defenses from their eastern border, though. Because unlike NATO, China might actually exploit weakness to seize territory, in an unprovoked war of aggression.
 
theprestige said:
What this tells me is that Moscow has pretty much given up on attacking any NATO members any time soon.

I bet they're not pulling a lot of air defenses from their eastern border, though. Because unlike NATO, China might actually exploit weakness to seize territory, in an unprovoked war of aggression.
Click to expand...

Not sure air defenses will be relevant if China attacks Russia's border with them. I expect 1% of the Chinese Army could easily overwhelm the tiny border guard units Russia has along that border. Russia's only realistic defense against any incursion by a modern army is nuclear.
 
Also read this morning that Putin is urging Russians to have 'up to 8 children'...now that may get across the message to ordinary Russians that things aren't going well.
 
Ethan Thane Athen said:
Also read this morning that Putin is urging Russians to have 'up to 8 children'...now that may get across the message to ordinary Russians that things aren't going well.
Click to expand...


Lots of children and young adults in Gaza looking for good homes right now. Maybe Putin can offer them a place of refuge in Russia. If he succeeds, he could send the kidnapped Ukrainian kids back home!
 
Ethan Thane Athen said:
Also read this morning that Putin is urging Russians to have 'up to 8 children'...now that may get across the message to ordinary Russians that things aren't going well.
Click to expand...


This is actually old news, because Putin has for a long time tried to promote an increase in the ethnic Russian population. The Russians are scared that one day they may not make up the majority population in Russia.

He has made various attempts to keep women at home to care for the children, and Russia is giving cash bonuses to women who get more children.

Funnily, Hitler also had the same policies.

I am not sure, but I think it was Russia where some reactionary politicians are demanding that women should be discouraged from higher educations, because it is well-known that women get fewer children, the more educated they are. Just ask the
Talibans,
 
Russian army advancing 'in all directions' in Ukraine - Moscow

Russia's army is advancing "in all directions" in Ukraine, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed on Friday.

His comments come as Russian forces ramp up pressure on the eastern front, following Kyiv's largely unsuccessful summer counteroffensive.

“Our military is acting with competence and determination, occupying a more favourable position, and expanding its zones of control in all directions,” said Shoigu.

Combat abilities of Ukraine were "significantly reduced" after their counteroffensive, he added.
Click to expand...

https://www.euronews.com/2023/12/01/russian-army-advancing-in-all-directions-in-ukraine-moscow
 
Andy_Ross said:
Russian army advancing 'in all directions' in Ukraine - Moscow



https://www.euronews.com/2023/12/01/russian-army-advancing-in-all-directions-in-ukraine-moscow
Click to expand...

At lightning speed, at that!

A little more seriously, it's been Russia's "turn" to go on the offensive for a while now and they've been doing so while incurring very disproportionate losses and making painfully slow gains. Potentially ratios of notably more than 10:1 near Avdiivka, for example. Losses that The Don would likely be inspired to remind us that Russia's willing to accept, of course, but losses that do keep becoming increasingly costly for Russia even if Russia's willing to accept them. Besides the obvious, a huge chunk of Russia's military budget is apparently being spent just to attract more bodies for the meat grinders.
 
Aridas said:
At lightning speed, at that!

A little more seriously, it's been Russia's "turn" to go on the offensive for a while now and they've been doing so while incurring very disproportionate losses and making painfully slow gains. Potentially ratios of notably more than 10:1 near Avdiivka, for example. Losses that The Don would likely be inspired to remind us that Russia's willing to accept, of course, but losses that do keep becoming increasingly costly for Russia even if Russia's willing to accept them. Besides the obvious, a huge chunk of Russia's military budget is apparently being spent just to attract more bodies for the meat grinders.
Click to expand...

I guess time will tell whether Russia can keep up the pressure on multiple fronts or whether a shortage of men and/or materiel will force them to suspend their attempts to advance.
 
Recent reports are that Moscow has in fact reduced the pressure on multiple fronts. Marching men pointlessly into killzones isn't the same as massed infantry assaults on a wide front, reinforcing success and abandoning failure. They both look like meatgrinders, but only the latter actually constitutes winning. It's pretty obvious that while Moscow still has enough warm bodies to pretend they haven't already lost, they're far short of the numbers they need to win this way.
 
As near as I can tell, the only viable reasoning behind any current Russian offensive action is to try and bait Ukraine into conducting offensive operations in cities. It is the only viable reason I can think of for their efforts in east currently focusing on Adviivka.

Cities are the great equalizer between armies. A not great defender can make it very difficult for a better trained and well equipped attacker. A serious offensive effort in a city would require a concentration of force that would draw away troops needed to hold the line elsewhere. Since Ukraine still has a fraction of the men that Russia does, Getting Ukraine to attack in a city would at least partly alter the balance for the Russians everywhere else.

The Ukrainians have not taken the bait for this. Bakmhut remains in Russian hands largely because what it would likely cost to re-take it. For Ukraine, economy of force comes before all other principles of war.

For Russia, they need to find a way to get Ukraine to make the effort to take cities. They are trying to create a dilemma for Ukraine where either they go after the cities or they watch the Russians sit endlessly on their land. If they can hang on long enough they might see Ukraine lose support.
 
Doubt said:
For Russia, they need to find a way to get Ukraine to make the effort to take cities.
Click to expand...

Isn't this exactly what Ukraine has been doing to Russia? Apparently Russia has taken a beating trying to take these otherwise nothing cities. It's a gamble on the long game though. You have to believe that you can degrade Russia's forces before they can get their industry and mobilization up.
 
Jimbo07 said:
Isn't this exactly what Ukraine has been doing to Russia? Apparently Russia has taken a beating trying to take these otherwise nothing cities. It's a gamble on the long game though. You have to believe that you can degrade Russia's forces before they can get their industry and mobilization up.
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Yes. But the manpower cost to Russia is not as bad as it is for Ukraine. Russia can afford the casualties to take cites. Ukraine cannot. Ukraine's best way to deal with cities is to bypass them. But since they have not been able to pull off any more thunder runs this summer, bypassing becomes harder.
 
In a case of poetic justice, a Russian general dies from a mine laid by Russians. Which is apparently a big problem for Russians trying to counter-attack the Ukrainian bridge-head in the south. Apparently nobody knows where the previous troops laid the mines, and Russian soldiers are exploding left and right on their own minefields.
 
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More details on the operation by the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) on the Baikal-Amur railway line.

The first freight train exploded directly in the Severomuysky Tunnel blocking it completely, the Russians began to use a detour route going via a older, longer alternative route over the so-called 'Devil's Bridge', to keep things moving.
This is what the SSU anticipated and when the second train was passing along the high 35-metre bridge, they activated the explosive devices that were planted in it.

According to Russian Telegram channels, six fuel tankers were on fire after the explosion. A fire train was needed to extinguish it.

Quote from SSU spokesman
Russian special services should get used to the fact that our people are everywhere. Even in distant Buryatia.
Click to expand...
 
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a_unique_person said:
Each of those dead is part of a family and community. If it is true that the cannon fodder comes mainly from Russia's ethnic regions Putin could be facing serious internal trouble.
Click to expand...

Not really. If 300k didn't cause an upraising, 500 won't either. Russians don't believe those numbers anyway. They are the best. Putin is the best. They are winning. Some non patriots died like dogs. Patriots obviously only did what they were supposed to do.
We will se much larger disruption to civil life before we will se disruption of military machine.
 
Andy_Ross said:
More details on the operation by the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) on the Baikal-Amur railway line.

The first freight train exploded directly in the Severomuysky Tunnel blocking it completely, the Russians began to use a detour route going via a older, longer alternative route over the so-called 'Devil's Bridge', to keep things moving.
This is what the SSU anticipated and when the second train was passing along the high 35-metre bridge, they activated the explosive devices that were planted in it.

According to Russian Telegram channels, six fuel tankers were on fire after the explosion. A fire train was needed to extinguish it.

Quote from SSU spokesman
Click to expand...

There are only two rail links for Russia to the far east. BAM and the trans Siberian. And the trans Siberian is geared toward passenger traffic.

This is a huge deal, and greatly under reported. The saboteurs have not been caught. So, either Russia extends resources guarding their infrastructure, or this keeps happening.
 
a_unique_person said:
Each of those dead is part of a family and community. If it is true that the cannon fodder comes mainly from Russia's ethnic regions Putin could be facing serious internal trouble.
Click to expand...

I think Putin is working on the principle that they are not proper Russians so it's getting rid of a potential problem.

And in fact it might end up being a genocide against some.og those groups if they conscript enough young men (and potentially then women) from those ethnic groups.
 
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