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Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

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steenkh said:
Thanks, very informative.

But I wonder why Zelensky has let him stay around for two weeks - twice, given his strong pro-Russian view before the war. If his first piece was not pro-Ukrainian, or at least neutral, why let him come back a year later?

I haven’t read his first interview with Zelensky, but I gather from the article in a Danish newspaper, that led me to post this, that he had been quite glowing about Zelensky, and the effect he had on his people.

I also wonder that if Shuster wrote a piece about why Russia would never invade Ukraine, then how has he reacted to the actual invasion?
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Zelensky has a lot on his plate, and has to balance the perceptions of a wide range of different interest groups. Barring an unfriendly reporter has its own risks.
 
More and more it seems like Ukraine is cozening a strategic disaster for Moscow, regardless of whether the invader keeps hold of the occupied areas for another year or more. More than anything, Moscow wanted the freedom of Sevastopol and the Black Sea. Now it's looking pretty clear that they won't have these things for another generation, if ever.
 
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ohms said:
There are Ukrainian claims that they have sunk another Russian ship, in Kerch harbour this time. The Project 22800 missile corvette Askold supposedly hit with Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles

https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1720876837092343838

The video is far from conclusive but fingers crossed...
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Looks like minor scratches. Nothing that won't buff out.

ZDFRrf1.jpg
 
First Ukrainian Armored Vehicles Reported Crossing Dnipro River.


The Ukrainian military has run recon patrols on the Dnipro’s left bank since May and sent Marine infantry detachments across the river in September. Now for the first time, Kyiv sent armored vehicles.

An incrementally growing Ukrainian bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnipro River has for the first time been reinforced by armored vehicles.
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Currently, he said, Ukrainian Marines hold outposts and observation posts in the villages Krynky, Kusaseve, Peschanivka, and on the northern section of Aleshkin Island.

Ukrainian Marines most recently have begun operating patrols and setting up ambushes along the road connecting the villages of Postepne and Kazachy Lager
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According to most Russian and Ukrainian independent commentator reports, the Ukrainian toeholds, prior to reinforcement by BTR-4 fighting vehicles, were of limited strength – with a platoon to a company of Marine infantry (25-150 men) at each location.
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On Oct. 30 the Kremlin sacked the general commanding all Russian forces in the southern sector, according to news reports, because he and his staff concealed from their Moscow bosses the scale and intent of the Ukrainian river crossing operation.

The Ukrainian military’s seemingly continuing unopposed transfer of force to the left bank, now including armored vehicles, on Tuesday, drew almost immediate fire from pro-Moscow military bloggers saying Moscow was still responding to a worsening tactical situation on the Dnipro Riverfront by, for the most part, pretending it doesn’t exist.
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https://www.kyivpost.com/post/23779
 
From Newsweek:

Russian Lawmaker Wants a 'Ministry of Happiness' as Citizens Sour on War

A longtime public figure in Russia has proposed the creation of a Ministry of Happiness at a time when many of the nation's citizens have reportedly soured on the 20-month war against Ukraine.

Valentina Matviyenko, the chairperson of the Russian Federation Council, said during a speech at the recent Znanie (Knowledge) education expo in Moscow that she came up with the idea in 2019 while on a trip to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

As the conflict in Ukraine continues with no end in sight, public support is falling sharply. Polling conducted in October by Russia's Levada Center, an independent research organization based in Moscow, found that nearly three out of every four Russians said they would support President Vladimir Putin if he decided to call for an end to the conflict.

However, just a third of the poll's 1,608 national respondents favored a ceasefire that would have Russia returning Ukrainian territories that it has occupied and annexed, such as the eastern areas and Crimea.

"Immediately, a law on overall happiness!" Matviyenko, 74, said at the expo, according to The Insider, a Russian independent publication online. "You know, I dream of creating and have even proposed that we create a Ministry of Happiness in Russia. A ministry that will review all decisions and laws to see whether this new law or new government decree will make people happier."​

To go along with the Ministries of Love, Truth, Plenty, and Peace, no doubt. :rolleyes:
 
SpitfireIX said:
From Newsweek:

Russian Lawmaker Wants a 'Ministry of Happiness' as Citizens Sour on War

A longtime public figure in Russia has proposed the creation of a Ministry of Happiness at a time when many of the nation's citizens have reportedly soured on the 20-month war against Ukraine.

Valentina Matviyenko, the chairperson of the Russian Federation Council, said during a speech at the recent Znanie (Knowledge) education expo in Moscow that she came up with the idea in 2019 while on a trip to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

As the conflict in Ukraine continues with no end in sight, public support is falling sharply. Polling conducted in October by Russia's Levada Center, an independent research organization based in Moscow, found that nearly three out of every four Russians said they would support President Vladimir Putin if he decided to call for an end to the conflict.

However, just a third of the poll's 1,608 national respondents favored a ceasefire that would have Russia returning Ukrainian territories that it has occupied and annexed, such as the eastern areas and Crimea.

"Immediately, a law on overall happiness!" Matviyenko, 74, said at the expo, according to The Insider, a Russian independent publication online. "You know, I dream of creating and have even proposed that we create a Ministry of Happiness in Russia. A ministry that will review all decisions and laws to see whether this new law or new government decree will make people happier."​

To go along with the Ministries of Love, Truth, Plenty, and Peace, no doubt. :rolleyes:
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I'm suspicious of the wording of that poll. 'Would you support President Putin if he called for an end to the conflict?' seems calculated to get a broadly positive response even from many pro-war Putin supporters. It's very different from asking 'Should President Putin call an end to the conflict?'
 
SpitfireIX said:
From Newsweek:

Russian Lawmaker Wants a 'Ministry of Happiness' as Citizens Sour on War

A longtime public figure in Russia has proposed the creation of a Ministry of Happiness at a time when many of the nation's citizens have reportedly soured on the 20-month war against Ukraine.

Valentina Matviyenko, the chairperson of the Russian Federation Council, said during a speech at the recent Znanie (Knowledge) education expo in Moscow that she came up with the idea in 2019 while on a trip to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

As the conflict in Ukraine continues with no end in sight, public support is falling sharply. Polling conducted in October by Russia's Levada Center, an independent research organization based in Moscow, found that nearly three out of every four Russians said they would support President Vladimir Putin if he decided to call for an end to the conflict.

However, just a third of the poll's 1,608 national respondents favored a ceasefire that would have Russia returning Ukrainian territories that it has occupied and annexed, such as the eastern areas and Crimea.

"Immediately, a law on overall happiness!" Matviyenko, 74, said at the expo, according to The Insider, a Russian independent publication online. "You know, I dream of creating and have even proposed that we create a Ministry of Happiness in Russia. A ministry that will review all decisions and laws to see whether this new law or new government decree will make people happier."​

To go along with the Ministries of Love, Truth, Plenty, and Peace, no doubt. :rolleyes:
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The beatings will continue until morale improves.
 
This must be one of those incremental advances Moscow is so good at. They keep telling us Moscow is running out of accidental birthday grenades, but the truth is they just keep on coming. At this rate, they'll take Kyiv sooner or later.
 
Well, if true, this would be sad.

It seems Russian leadership is damned and determined to turn their country into a North Korea-esque **** show.

also,

Apparently the Russians are trying to buy back weapons from countries it sold to!

I mean, wanting to be Emperor is one thing, but once you're into doing stuff like this, you're only the Emperor of a crumbling pile of nonsense.

What puzzles me is why does anybody still do business with them?! Geopolitical offsets, blah blah blah, but honestly! Their gear is sub-standard, and they'll break contracts.
 
Jimbo07 said:
What puzzles me is why does anybody still do business with them?! Geopolitical offsets, blah blah blah, but honestly! Their gear is sub-standard, and they'll break contracts.
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Their gear is more than good enough to suppress your own citizens. And they don't get antsy when you do that.
 
Ziggurat said:
Their gear is more than good enough to suppress your own citizens. And they don't get antsy when you do that.
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Just like Russian troops! Good enough to bully civillians. Yes, Russian stuff is good enough and cheap enough for things like COIN.

What, then, does that say about any government that would buy from Russia? (I mean, my country keeps selling to Saudi Arabia, but... :mad:)
 
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SpitfireIX said:
From Newsweek:

Russian Lawmaker Wants a 'Ministry of Happiness' as Citizens Sour on War

A longtime public figure in Russia has proposed the creation of a Ministry of Happiness at a time when many of the nation's citizens have reportedly soured on the 20-month war against Ukraine.

Valentina Matviyenko, the chairperson of the Russian Federation Council, said during a speech at the recent Znanie (Knowledge) education expo in Moscow that she came up with the idea in 2019 while on a trip to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

As the conflict in Ukraine continues with no end in sight, public support is falling sharply. Polling conducted in October by Russia's Levada Center, an independent research organization based in Moscow, found that nearly three out of every four Russians said they would support President Vladimir Putin if he decided to call for an end to the conflict.

However, just a third of the poll's 1,608 national respondents favored a ceasefire that would have Russia returning Ukrainian territories that it has occupied and annexed, such as the eastern areas and Crimea.

"Immediately, a law on overall happiness!" Matviyenko, 74, said at the expo, according to The Insider, a Russian independent publication online. "You know, I dream of creating and have even proposed that we create a Ministry of Happiness in Russia. A ministry that will review all decisions and laws to see whether this new law or new government decree will make people happier."​

To go along with the Ministries of Love, Truth, Plenty, and Peace, no doubt. :rolleyes:
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Will they also have color-coded security clearances and a Computer that is always right?
 
Jimbo07 said:
Well, if true, this would be sad.

It seems Russian leadership is damned and determined to turn their country into a North Korea-esque **** show.

also,

Apparently the Russians are trying to buy back weapons from countries it sold to!

I mean, wanting to be Emperor is one thing, but once you're into doing stuff like this, you're only the Emperor of a crumbling pile of nonsense.

What puzzles me is why does anybody still do business with them?! Geopolitical offsets, blah blah blah, but honestly! Their gear is sub-standard, and they'll break contracts.
Click to expand...

Countries with no moral scruples can name their price on whatever oil, gas or other primary resources Russia is still capable of extraction.

As an aside: this is why Israel was so slow to condemn Russia last year.
 
Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reports a successful strike on small landing ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the temporarily occupied Crimea.

The vessels targeted were identified as Project 11770 Serna class landing craft, stated the official statement from GUR.

In the absence of reliable Russian naval air defense systems, these vessels, equipped with anti-aircraft complexes, acted as cover for the Russian Black Sea Fleet, particularly after recent Security and Defense Forces attacks,” remarked in the GUR.

According the the Militarnyi, during a nighttime operation on the territory of temporarily occupied Crimea, Ukrainian military successfully targeted two small landing ships, Project 1176 “Acula” and 11770 “Serna.”

This successful operation marks a significant blow to Russia’s naval presence in the region.
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https://defence-blog.com/ukraine-blows-up-russian-landing-craft-in-crimea/?amp


There won't be much left of the Black Sea Fleet for Ukraine to attack at this rate
 
Jimbo07 said:
Just like Russian troops! Good enough to bully civillians. Yes, Russian stuff is good enough and cheap enough for things like COIN.

What, then, does that say about any government that would buy from Russia? (I mean, my country keeps selling to Saudi Arabia, but... :mad:)
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Ziggurat's snark is funny because it's true, but I think the real driving factor is cost. Cost of training, cost of operation, cost of maintenance. Top shelf western gear is expensive. Even with vendor subsidies.

If your antagonistic neighbors don't have western gear themselves, you can probably get a more cost effective deterrent by matching their Warsaw Pact or homegrown gear with similar stuff.

Saudi Arabia gets western gear because they can afford it, and because it's of huge strategic value to the west, to keep SA one step ahead of Iran.
 
Kinda makes you wonder why, in spite of the pressure in the south, the Russians seem to be more determined to get their soldiers killed near Avdiivka :p
 
ginjawarrior said:
Looks like the left bank of denipro river is cracking. Saw a russian blog report earlier saying Ukraine were controlling up to 35km in land, that they had control of the highway and now ria novosti is saying russian troops are moving back to more defendable position

https://twitter.com/AleksandrX13/status/1723977332354863212
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SpitfireIX said:
The Russians have retracted the claim that their forces are withdrawing, blaming the "fake news" on a Ukrainian information operation. Of course, that means exactly nothing.
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I can't decide which is the more hilarious possibility:

- Russian state-owned media fell for a Ukrainian psyop, or

- Russian state-owned media can't come up with a better excuse than "we fell for a Ukrainian psyop".

Surely even the Russian concept of vranyo must have room for normal human explanations like, "incorrect early report, we're getting more info and will have an update soon". Right?
 
HansMustermann said:
Kinda makes you wonder why, in spite of the pressure in the south, the Russians seem to be more determined to get their soldiers killed near Avdiivka : p
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My working hypothesis is that they're trying to relieve pressure in the south, by drawing away defenders from that sector. Probably because it's easier to press where the Ukrainian defenses are weak, than try to shore up their own weak points.

But I have no idea how plausible this is.
 
theprestige said:
My working hypothesis is that they're trying to relieve pressure in the south, by drawing away defenders from that sector. Probably because it's easier to press where the Ukrainian defenses are weak, than try to shore up their own weak points.

But I have no idea how plausible this is.
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Ukrainian defenses or Russian defenses? The meaning changes a bit depending on which.

With that said... Ukraine's crossing was, initially, almost certainly little more than an operation to distract and fix Russia troops, while whittling away at Russian forces with their artillery cover as they tried to retake that foothold. It's been a while since then, though, and currently, it looks like an opportunistic strike to try to secure a known pontoon bridge site from Russian artillery fire and then use that to romp through that currently weakly defended area.
 
SpitfireIX said:
The Russians have retracted the claim that their forces are withdrawing, blaming the "fake news" on a Ukrainian information operation. [/Quote ]I didn't get that far down thread. Was at end of lunch just saw confirmation of the mill blogger post
Of course, that means exactly nothing.
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I'm pretty sure it means there's some defenestration ahead ;)
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theprestige said:
I can't decide which is the more hilarious possibility:

- Russian state-owned media fell for a Ukrainian psyop, or

- Russian state-owned media can't come up with a better excuse than "we fell for a Ukrainian psyop".

Surely even the Russian concept of vranyo must have room for normal human explanations like, "incorrect early report, we're getting more info and will have an update soon". Right?
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They could have at least done "in the face of adversity our brave troops have chosen to take not one step back"
 
I mean they did just put the general responsible for the retreat from Kherson in the hot seat.

"Ivan, that story you're running, about the scorpion we put in charge of frog rides? You need to kill it."
 
theprestige said:
My working hypothesis is that they're trying to relieve pressure in the south, by drawing away defenders from that sector. Probably because it's easier to press where the Ukrainian defenses are weak, than try to shore up their own weak points.



But I have no idea how plausible this is.
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The simplest explanation is that it is stupidity. They ignored the lesson that Ukraine learnt about the difficulty of mobile, integrated attacks and went all in on the expectation that they could storm weak Ukrainian positions at Adviivka easily.

The reality is otherwise but they can't admit to their stupidity. To do so would indicate weakness.

The propaganda channels on YouTube were saying Russia was going all in with this attack and would crush Ukraine.

The situation for Ukraine there is precarious. The distance to cover isolate the Ukrainians is not far. There is only one road in for supplies once the weather worsens.
 
theprestige said:
My working hypothesis is that they're trying to relieve pressure in the south, by drawing away defenders from that sector. Probably because it's easier to press where the Ukrainian defenses are weak, than try to shore up their own weak points.
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It's a possibility, but bear in mind that it works both ways. Every battalion you send up north is one less that you can use in the south. In fact some units were actually moved from the south. E.g., the 6th Motor Rifle Division actually got moved there from Zaporizhia.

And you're more likely to lose more of them in attack than in defense. Especially the way the Russians attack.

I mean, by some point they even gave up on combined arms, 'cause they were losing too many vehicles. Well, they still do, but without even showing much for it. By now they just use the IFVs (Infantry Fighting Vehicles) to carry the infantry to some distance, then bugger off instead of doing their role to, you know, fight enemy infantry together with their own infantry. Essentially they could do the same job with cheaper Ural trucks, and they cost less to replace when Santa Himars comes bringing gifts, or you get them delivered by drone :p

Plus, I'm not a general (then again, neither is Shoigu:p) but it seems to me like in the south they would be counter-attacking some Ukrainian positions that were not yet fortified and had practically bugger-all heavy equipment across the Dnipro, while in Avdiivka they're assaulting a heavily fortified position. I mean, just that coke slack hill alone is practically a redoubt with steep walls.
 
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