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What could plausibly happen on Earth that would make it less habitable than, say, Mars?

Mars can never support a self-sufficient human population as it lacks so many elements in reasonably sufficient concentrations and accessibility. For example, plants require nitrogen. The Martian atmosphere is 2.7% nitrogen but the atmosphere itself has been described as a 'laboratory grade vacuum', coming it at about 1% the density of Earth's. And that's just one issue


I said that we will need to develop a way to extend humanity beyond earth. I didn't say that we need to colonize Mars. Visiting Mars might just be an early step.
 

I said that we will need to develop a way to extend humanity beyond earth. I didn't say that we need to colonize Mars. Visiting Mars might just be an early step.
And I just used Mars as an example. What/where did you have in mind?
 

I said that we will need to develop a way to extend humanity beyond earth. I didn't say that we need to colonize Mars. Visiting Mars might just be an early step.
If you're talking about interstellar travel, it won't be by the human species as we know it. If we aim lower and just try to preserve life in the universe, I think panspermia is our best bet but that's still in the far future. I guess.
 
That's not true. Humans are doing science, they just don't have to go to Mars and put up with all the privations. The robots can also tolerate harsh conditions much better. They are more efficient with energy and use less of it. When something goes wrong the no-one dies.
What if the science they're doing is studying those very same harsh conditions? Robots can't do everything. They an only do what their onboard instruments are capable of.
These robots are not making discoveries. Humans are looking at the video footage from the robots, and if they find something interesting, they do indeed say “gee, that looks interesting. I think we’ll send the robot to take a closer look”.
I'm sure they will. But when the interesting thing is beyond the capability of the robot's instruments, it's very expensive to send up a new robot. Humans can do things on the spot. They can make decisions, observations, even bring specific samples back to a better-equipped lab to use instruments that it is not practical to put on a robot.
 
You could get a huge rover on Mars using similar rockets as what would be required to land humans on Mars. Even better it is ok to leave the rovers on Mars. You must bring the humans back. This means that some of the mass required to bring the humans back to Earth could be used to make an even bigger rover. Then the rover would have the power to go much faster than previous rovers. And have the tools to do the analysis of rocks.
 
They are controlled by the mission control remotely. They aren't autonomous.
Messages take on average about 12 minutes to pass between Earth and Mars, depending on their relative orbital positions. Mission control sends the rover a set of instructions, which takes time to get there. Then it takes an equal amount of time for telemetry to get back. That's a 24 minute round trip, on average, between sending it an instruction and seeing the result. They're not being remote controlled.
 
If we send people to Mars, a lot of robots will be sent first to prepare for the manned missions. And when people explore Mars, even if just from orbit around Mars, they will be able to better control the robots and explore more of the planet in less time.

If people aren't going to Mars, all of the funding for manned missions won't go to robotic ones. Very little money will be allocated and there won't be many robots going there.

Plus, we really do need to develop a way to extend humanity beyond earth before we or some natural disaster makes it unliveable.
A manned mission to Mars is decades away at best, more likely close to a century. A manned mission to Mars that includes building a colony is sheer fantasy.
 
Messages take on average about 12 minutes to pass between Earth and Mars, depending on their relative orbital positions. Mission control sends the rover a set of instructions, which takes time to get there. Then it takes an equal amount of time for telemetry to get back. That's a 24 minute round trip, on average, between sending it an instruction and seeing the result. They're not being remote controlled.
Correct. Mission controllers send a set of navigation instructions Once the program is set in motion, there is no way to quickly stop, as any instruction to do so cannot be sent for several minutes. The maximum radio signal travel time to Mars is about 22 minutes, so it could be up to 44 minutes before a "stop" signal would be received if there was a problem. Real time remote control is not possible, but it does have some limited autonomous control.

Here is a typical "Day in the Life of the Mars Curiosity Rover"

Around 9:30 Mars time, a message arrives from California, (from where it was sent some minutes earlier.

"Drive forward 10 meters, turn to an azimuth of 45 degrees, now turn on your autonomous capabilities and drive."

The Curiosity rover executes the commands, moving slowly to its designated position, at a maximum speed of 35 to 110 meters (yards) per hour.

Its batteries and other configurations limit its daily drive span to around 100 meters. The most Curiosity has rolled on Mars in a day is 220 meters.

Once it arrives, its 17 cameras take shots of its environs.

Its laser zaps rocks. Other tools on board drill into a particularly interesting rock to study small samples.

Around 5 pm Martian time, it will wait for one of NASA's three satellites orbiting the planet to pass overhead.

Curiosity will then send several hundred megabytes of scientific data via large ground antennae to its human masters on Earth.
 

I said that we will need to develop a way to extend humanity beyond earth. I didn't say that we need to colonize Mars. Visiting Mars might just be an early step.
Name us an earth like planet, one that has a breathable atmosphere, correct mix of water to land, enough plant life to develop soil, a magnetosphere that adequately shields against harmful radiation, a lack of pathogens that would be 100% fatal and a lack of dangerous or intelligent animal life. Once you do that we can begin to talkabout colonies, but until then our best bet is to protect our own pale blue dot, it's the only one we have.
 
Messages take on average about 12 minutes to pass between Earth and Mars, depending on their relative orbital positions. Mission control sends the rover a set of instructions, which takes time to get there. Then it takes an equal amount of time for telemetry to get back. That's a 24 minute round trip, on average, between sending it an instruction and seeing the result. They're not being remote controlled.
Why not? It is slow yes, but it is not autonomous, and mission controllers have in fact decided to deviate from plans to go and investigate features that looked interesting.
 
The good thing is they can get there now, unlike human exploration which is still in the indeterminate future and that's going to be the situation for all future space exploration. Improved AI will only increase the gap in capability.
 
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Why not? It is slow yes, but it is not autonomous, and mission controllers have in fact decided to deviate from plans to go and investigate features that looked interesting.
When/if they can actually get to where they want to go. The Mission Control has to be very careful where they go and the rovers are limited as to what terrain they can travel on (theoretical 45°, but the wheels start spinning over 30°). IIRC it was somewhere between Bridger Basin and Naukluft Plateau that they almost put Curiosity down a slope into a place it might not have been able to get out of.

Humans would be less likely to face such problems
 
What if the science they're doing is studying those very same harsh conditions? Robots can't do everything. They an only do what their onboard instruments are capable of.

I'm sure they will. But when the interesting thing is beyond the capability of the robot's instruments, it's very expensive to send up a new robot. Humans can do things on the spot. They can make decisions, observations, even bring specific samples back to a better-equipped lab to use instruments that it is not practical to put on a robot.
That reads like you are thinking the robots wouldnt be in contact with humans! You'd want them to have some autonomy but experiments etc. will be under the control of humans. A robot on Mars surface doing experiments at the behest of humans will be able to do many, many more things than a human there could. Even ignoring the risk to humans robots are better candidates for exploring anywhere that the environment is outside the very, very narrow conditions suitable to humans.

Now I love the idea of humans going to Mars, but I freely admit that's the romantic in me. And no matter how much I would like it to happen pragmatism wins out.
 
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Messages take on average about 12 minutes to pass between Earth and Mars, depending on their relative orbital positions. Mission control sends the rover a set of instructions, which takes time to get there. Then it takes an equal amount of time for telemetry to get back. That's a 24 minute round trip, on average, between sending it an instruction and seeing the result. They're not being remote controlled.
Seems pretty remote to me.
 
That reads like you are thinking the robots wouldnt be in contact with humans! You'd want them to have some autonomy but experiments etc. will be under the control of humans. A robot on Mars surface doing experiments at the behest of humans will be able to do many, many more things than a human there could. Even ignoring the risk to humans robots are better candidates for exploring anywhere that the environment is outside the very, very narrow conditions suitable to humans.

Now I love the idea of humans going to Mars, but I freely admit that's the romantic in me. And no matter how much I would like it to happen pragmatism wins out.

it would be awesome if it was cantina's full of mutants and smugglers hunting sand worms and space whales.

how far away that stuff is and some huckster is telling you he'll bring it to you if you let him put 100k satellites up first so he can broadcast fourth reich propaganda on his advertising network to the most remote paranoid libertarians and placates everyone by blowing up a rocket here and there

am i exaggerating? maybe a little, but not as much as should make anyone comfortable
 
Messages take on average about 12 minutes to pass between Earth and Mars, depending on their relative orbital positions. Mission control sends the rover a set of instructions, which takes time to get there. Then it takes an equal amount of time for telemetry to get back. That's a 24 minute round trip, on average, between sending it an instruction and seeing the result.
So? It's not like we're in any rush.

Accomplishing Lifeboat Mars will require an epic civilizational upgrade that's still thousands of years in our future.

And every step we make in that direction will also greatly increase our chances of surviving here on earth, or anywhere else we care to spend our time.

The humanity that could plausibly establish a self sustaining colony on Mars is a humanity with no pressing need to do so.

We're nowhere near being that humanity. Which, ironically, means we also have no such pressing need.
 
The humanity that could plausibly establish a self sustaining colony on Mars is a humanity with no pressing need to do so.

We're nowhere near being that humanity. Which, ironically, means we also have no such pressing need.
There was no pressing need to scale Mt Everest. We'll do it just to prove that we can.
 
There was no pressing need to scale Mt Everest. We'll do it just to prove that we can.
"Many years ago the great British explorer George Mallory, who was to die on Mount Everest, was asked why did he want to climb it. He said, "Because it is there."

Well, space is there, and we're going to climb it, and the moon and the planets are there, and new hopes for knowledge and peace are there. And, therefore, as we set sail we ask God's blessing on the most hazardous and dangerous and greatest adventure on which man has ever embarked."
- John Fitzgerald Kennedy
 
"Many years ago the great British explorer George Mallory, who was to die on Mount Everest, was asked why did he want to climb it. He said, "Because it is there."

Well, space is there, and we're going to climb it, and the moon and the planets are there, and new hopes for knowledge and peace are there. And, therefore, as we set sail we ask God's blessing on the most hazardous and dangerous and greatest adventure on which man has ever embarked."
- John Fitzgerald Kennedy
And his speech writer was truthful. The issue I have is when people come up with a science fiction scenario as a reason to go to Mars. A goal of colonising Mars to create a redoubt for humanity if earth becomes uninhabitable by humans is very much still science fiction, getting humans to Mars won’t make it any less so.
 
Happily for many of us the world is a very different place than it was during the first space race era but those differences are why I don't think it's possible to today sell going to Mars "because it is there". For all the space race cost back then even as a percentage of GDP it didn't have to compete for funding to the same degree as it does today.
 
There was no pressing need to scale Mt Everest. We'll do it just to prove that we can.

"Many years ago the great British explorer George Mallory, who was to die on Mount Everest, was asked why did he want to climb it. He said, "Because it is there."

Well, space is there, and we're going to climb it, and the moon and the planets are there, and new hopes for knowledge and peace are there. And, therefore, as we set sail we ask God's blessing on the most hazardous and dangerous and greatest adventure on which man has ever embarked."
- John Fitzgerald Kennedy
I'm all in favor of private enthusiasts self-funding their space travel hobby.
 

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