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Ed Self-Driving Cars: Pros, Cons, and Predictions

Evaluate Self-Driving Cars on a scale of 1-5 (1 = Terrible, 3 = Meh, 5 = Great)

  • 1

    Votes: 10 6.6%
  • 2

    Votes: 11 7.2%
  • 3

    Votes: 24 15.8%
  • 4

    Votes: 28 18.4%
  • 5

    Votes: 79 52.0%

  • Total voters
    152
  • Poll closed .

Cain

Straussian
Joined
May 31, 2002
Messages
15,492
Location
Los Angeles
ETA: I don't know why the link isn't embedding, but if Google can't make the Internet work, then it casts suspicions on their self-driving car. It's probably user-error on my part.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqSDWoAhvLU



If twenty years ago you told people they could browse the Internet from their cell, they'd say "I don't have a cellular phone, and what's the Internet?"

Yesterday, I sat waiting on a light that was forever red. There was hardly any traffic, and all I wanted to do was make a left-turn. If everything was interconnected, they could rig light systems so that cars traveling down the main rode would slow down, giving me just enough time to turn while the oncoming vehicles simply slow down. No stop and go, which is good for the car and the environment. How's that for efficiency? Indeed, we wouldn't even need traffic lights.

Does anyone have any objections to self-driving cars? I think the sooner they become mandatory, the better. It might lead to more utilitarian vehicles: acceleration, top speed, outer body probably become less important. Functional design means cars are not as big or heavy (but who knows, maybe people outfit their "rides" with barbecues and big screen tvs).

Predictions:

I'd guess that people would be more likely to rent cars. Unless you live in Bumble-****, Idaho, it's inefficient for us to drive to work, leave it parked for eight hours, then drive back. A fleet of vehicles frees up space, and if they're professionally owned, then they're probably also better maintained.

People would get where they want faster, and there'd be fewer accidents. I remember once reading an article that said when it comes to lane closures, people like to get over before the last possible moment because it's dickish to wait. But you get the best results when you go at the end. It also said that traffic conditions on one choke point in Boston(?) was such that if you reduced the number of cars by only 1%, flow improves 18%.

Pros:
Self-driving cars might reduce crime by making it more difficult to rob places, and escape. Joy-ride car theft would go down.

You could do other things while in your car, though most people will probably just text and take selfies.

Alleviates traffic from rubbernecking.

The costs of goods and services would decline since we move people out of transportation.

Eliminate parking space queens.

Empowers the disabled and elderly.

Potential Cons:

Big Brother.

Stalking pretty blonde girls in Santa Barbara (it becomes more difficult).

Renegades. People who nevertheless insist on driving their own cars.

Accidents. They'll still happen. When people lose the sense of control, or even the illusion of control, it makes the episode all the more terrifying.

Hackers/terrorists.

Lazy young men will have to find another way to raise their social status.
 
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I think the biggest problem with self-driving cars is that, until all cars self-drive, there's still going to be confusing and inconsistent human drivers making it more difficult for them to work.

I only voted 4 instead of 5 because I'm still mad I don't have a flying car yet.
 
As a non-car user, I can't wait to have robotic car all over the road. I respect the traffic law, but apparently far too many human driver think those are optional in a variety of situation (if they see no other car, at nights, if they think you are too slow even if you are AT the speed limit, if they feel the speed limit is too low etc...). Robotic car should not do any of those stuff.
 
Potential Cons:

Big Brother.
I agree with most of your assessment except this. It is perfectly possible to make a self-driving car self-contained. They probably won't, because the trend is in the direction of more communication to and from the car, but self-driving doesn't necessarily require any.
 
I predict that for some time after self-driving cars are approved for use on public roads its going to take a long time for the road-rules to adjust to be consistent with new technology.

For example, you're still going to have people using these vehicles being arrested for drunk driving because even putting the car into self-drive mode and instructing it to drive you home technically counts as operating the vehicle.
 
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As a non-car user, I can't wait to have robotic car all over the road. I respect the traffic law, but apparently far too many human driver think those are optional in a variety of situation (if they see no other car, at nights, if they think you are too slow even if you are AT the speed limit, if they feel the speed limit is too low etc...). Robotic car should not do any of those stuff.

I second this. I don't think having so many drivers on the road is the best idea for public safety or for the environment, and anything that removes the human element as much as possible can only be a good thing.
 
I agree with most of your assessment except this. It is perfectly possible to make a self-driving car self-contained. They probably won't, because the trend is in the direction of more communication to and from the car, but self-driving doesn't necessarily require any.

It is helpful to know when other cars are going to change direction or speed. That's the purpose of turn signals, afterall.

If the road is exceptionally busy and someone needs to make a turn at an intersection with a bad angle that requires near a full stop, the cars behind you can move from behind you or slow down far enough in advance that no one really notices.
 
It is helpful to know when other cars are going to change direction or speed. That's the purpose of turn signals, afterall.

If the road is exceptionally busy and someone needs to make a turn at an intersection with a bad angle that requires near a full stop, the cars behind you can move from behind you or slow down far enough in advance that no one really notices.
I'm not saying communication between cars or through a traffic management centre wouldn't be helpful in many ways, it's just not necessary.
 
They would be great. The main problem is that at some stage a car will be told to go across a lake and it would do so. Pity about the lack of bridge to go over the lake. If you think that stupid just remember apple got into trouble with their maps telling people to go where they should not do so.

Ref: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/20/apple-map-fails-ios-6-maps_n_1901599.html

There is a slight difference. People have been known to drop off jety into a lake, or the ocean, because the GPS navigator "showed that as being the way". On the other hand an autonomous car at the very least would brake because the damn road is ending into a hole.

So your argument about dropping into a lake is actually an argument in favor of the autonomous car.
 
I only have one issue with self-driving cars and that's my car sickness.

If I drive my own car, I don't get car sick. If somebody else does it's likely that I will. I suspect a self-driving car will have the same effect.

I still want them though :)
 
For example, you're still going to have people using these vehicles being arrested for drunk driving because even putting the car into self-drive mode and instructing it to drive you home technically counts as operating the vehicle.
That's a silly argument. Do people get arrested for taking a taxi, bus or train while drunk? They aren't driving the car, Google is.

However there is another problem. If Google is driving the car then Google will be liable for any accidents it gets into. When humans have accidents the blame is generally limited to the driver(s). But if someone crashes into one of Google's self-driving cars, you can bet he will try to sue Google (and any other interested party with deep pockets) for all they are worth. In a civil court the case only a needs a 'preponderance of evidence' (>50% likelihood) to be proved, and even if only found 10% liable they could still be 'on the hook' for millions. It will be a litigation nightmare!

People like to be in control, and are suspicious of machines that 'think for themselves'. For this reason I don't think we will see autonomous cars go mainstream for a long time. What we will see is an increase in the capabilities of navigation, avoidance and cruise control systems, to the point where going fully autonomous will only be a small upgrade. That way people will continue to feel that they are in control, even though the car is doing most of the driving.

An associated trend I think we will also see is a dramatic drop in road deaths. Nevertheless, people will still demand the right to drive their cars manually even it kills them, because freedom!
 
I'm in the "meh" camp.

The technology might work fine, but I see people as the problem.

Some people like driving and will probably insist on doing it until the cows come home, removing some of the benefits of robocars. (I wonder if human drivers will note that robocars are programmed to be more deferential than humans and will take advantage, like queue-barging at a lane merge. Could a robocar be programmed to shout abuse and give the middle-finger salute? ;) )

At the other end of the scale nations (and even states within the US and elsewhere) that have different attitudes to the issue will need to get synchronised somehow. NY licences these cars but NJ doesn't? And if inter-car communication is to play a significant role then manufacturers will need to agree on protocols.

We shall see.
 
That's a silly argument. Do people get arrested for taking a taxi, bus or train while drunk? They aren't driving the car, Google is.

However there is another problem. If Google is driving the car then Google will be liable for any accidents it gets into. When humans have accidents the blame is generally limited to the driver(s). But if someone crashes into one of Google's self-driving cars, you can bet he will try to sue Google (and any other interested party with deep pockets) for all they are worth. In a civil court the case only a needs a 'preponderance of evidence' (>50% likelihood) to be proved, and even if only found 10% liable they could still be 'on the hook' for millions. It will be a litigation nightmare!

People like to be in control, and are suspicious of machines that 'think for themselves'. For this reason I don't think we will see autonomous cars go mainstream for a long time. What we will see is an increase in the capabilities of navigation, avoidance and cruise control systems, to the point where going fully autonomous will only be a small upgrade. That way people will continue to feel that they are in control, even though the car is doing most of the driving.

An associated trend I think we will also see is a dramatic drop in road deaths. Nevertheless, people will still demand the right to drive their cars manually even it kills them, because freedom!

Why would accident rules on car positioning, and liability percentage, be suddenly NIL and void because it is an autonomous car ?
 
For example, you're still going to have people using these vehicles being arrested for drunk driving because even putting the car into self-drive mode and instructing it to drive you home technically counts as operating the vehicle.

That's a silly argument. Do people get arrested for taking a taxi, bus or train while drunk? They aren't driving the car, Google is.

In my state, in order to be "operating" the car, you have to be in the driver's seat with the key in the ignition. (It doesn't have to be running. This, of course, leads to people getting in their car to sleep it off getting arrested for DUI because they are in the driver's seat with the key in the ignition...)

If the self-driving car allowed the person to sit in the passenger seat (even if they are the only person in the car), it would avoid the risk of DUI.

Why would accident rules on car positioning, and liability percentage, be suddenly NIL and void because it is an autonomous car ?

The laws would not be null and void, but liability would become an issue. If I'm the only occupant of an autonomous car and that car rear-ends another car, am I liable, even if I had no control over the car I'm in? If not, who is liable? (The answer would be the company "driving" the car. Since that company is a multi-billion dollar company, any accident victim is going to sue and possible win big.)

I'm mostly in favor of self-driving cars. I used to have an hour commute to work. At first, I drove part of it, then used mass-transit for the rest. Then I realized I could get the bus outside my apartment and not have to drive. It was so much nicer not having to deal with other idiot drivers. :D

I do wonder how they would handle mass congestion, though. Major roads around here turn into parking lots during rush hour just because of the sheer number of cars.

Regarding fleet-owned rental cars, I wonder how they would handle toll roads and HOV (High-Occupancy Vehicle) lanes. (HOV lanes are used during rush hour to encourage car-pooling. Unless you have the required number of people in the car - and pregnant women do not count as 2 - you cannot legally drive in them.) A personally owned vehicle can be programed to use/not use them, but a fleet owned one could not, since usage would vary day-to-day.
 
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I only have one issue with self-driving cars and that's my car sickness.

If I drive my own car, I don't get car sick. If somebody else does it's likely that I will. I suspect a self-driving car will have the same effect.

I still want them though :)

If you are a passenger look at the window at the horizon. That is what the driver does. As a result drivers never get car sick. People car sick because their eyes and ears tell them different things about what direction they are moving.
 
Prediction:

Although driving will become statistically safer it will be perceived as more dangerous via the same principle that makes people more scared of aircrashes then of statistically much more likely car crashed, people are more afraid of dying/being injured when they aren't in control then when they are.
 
One thing that could be solved would be inner city parking. Cars could drive you to work then go and be a taxi during the day and then come pick you up after work. If one self drive car was following another then they could almost be touching as they could communicate with each other, the first car telling the following car if it was about to hit the brakes.
 
Supply and demand will always be an issue IMO. The demand for transportation around rush hour (whether car, bus or train) exceeds supply so there needs to be an efficient way in which people can request the vehicles.

If pre-booking confers an advantage (I place an order at 1000 for a vehicle at 1800) then people with regular working hours will have an advantage over those whose time of departure could be anywhere between 1700 and 2000 with no real indication of which until the very last minute. I suppose if you don't care so much about cost then you could just book for every 15 minutes over a couple of hours. Large companies could just order up a fleet around departure time for their employees allowing "retail" customers to fight over the crumbs.

I prefer a model of mixed private and public vehicle ownership but I absolutely agree that automatic control is a much safer option.

Having the option of sending your vehicle off to be a taxi is an excellent one IMO.
 
That's a silly argument. Do people get arrested for taking a taxi, bus or train while drunk? They aren't driving the car, Google is.


Google is not a person. The car is not being controlled by "Google" itself, but by the software that Google supplied. It's the person in the car who is operating it, even if operating it is limited to starting the car and instructing it where to take them.

Since there are currently no exemptions to the drink-driving laws for riding in self-diving cars, they're still breaking the law by operating a vehicle while intoxicated.
 
If you are a passenger look at the window at the horizon. That is what the driver does. As a result drivers never get car sick. People car sick because their eyes and ears tell them different things about what direction they are moving.

I can confirm this. I went through a period where any car trip longer than 30 minutes would cause intense nausea. It stopped as soon as I stopped reading in the car or staring out the side window and started watching the road ahead instead.
 
It would be nice if they'd just get a lot of our roads around here even on Google. Until they do that, self-driving cars would be useless because they'd think, "There's no road there." Also, how will they react to changing road conditions: wash-outs, water on the road, wildlife on the side of the road, accumulating snow, poor road surface, need for four-wheel-drive, etc.? I'm not optimistic.
 
I think the personal benefits of self driving cars will be wonderful. I know I am excited at the idea of being able to post to this forum whilst en route to work, as well as taking advantage of the other benefits my new robot can provide. A typical day for my robot might begin by warming itself up, taking me to work and dropping me off at the front door, then parking itself somewhere for a couple hours until it is time to pick my kids up from school and take them to their grandparents' house- then taking itself to the gas station for a fill-up, stopping by the grocery store to have my grocery order placed in the trunk, and finally, picking me up at the front door of my work and taking me home while I finish a few emails.

Societally, I think self driving cars are the first true personal robots and harbinger a sea-change in our world.
As TCS pointed out, the largest interested parties are transportation companies. Why pay a driver who can only safely operate your rig ten hours daily when you can have an automated one working twenty-four seven without holiday? The robot trucks don't even need a space for a driver, and can be made to maximize fuel efficiency by communicating with other trucks to take advantage of drafting while on long hauls.

Truck drivers, bus drivers,and taxicab drivers (among others) will soon be as necessary as livery men, and another segment that provided reasonably paid blue collar employment will disappear.
Of course, the Unions will fight it a bit, and politicians who forsee large drops in employment will throw roadblocks (pun intended) up to slow the loss of jobs- perhaps requiring someone in the vehicle at all times to hit some sort of emergency stop button if the buzzer goes off, but ultimately the die is cast and even that kind of make-work position will disappear.

Self driving cars are essentially robots, and we have reached the point with their introduction where we must figure out how we are going into the future as a culture that really has much less need of human labor than it ever has before, and many more people who have nothing else to sell.
 
(I wonder if human drivers will note that robocars are programmed to be more deferential than humans and will take advantage, like queue-barging at a lane merge. Could a robocar be programmed to shout abuse and give the middle-finger salute? ;) )
A robocar can do better than that. It can snap a picture of the reckless driver and his license plate, and send it to police. Next day he gets a ticket.

A lot of people seem to assume that Google has not thought about legal factors and "people factors". Maybe not on JREF, but on Guardian website at least 90% of commenters seem to take it for granted that "Google has not thought of..." Guess what -- they have. That's why Google spends so much on lobbyists. Things like "will drunk person in self-driving car be charged with drunk driving?" are very much on their mind, and they are actively lobbying to make sure it does not happen.
 
I do wonder if we're are wrong in thinking that magically a "Self Driving Car" is just going to appear all at once.

I mean with automatic transmission, ABS, traction control, et al you already are in less control of the car then you were 50 years ago. Technologies like lane change avoidance, automatic breaking, automatic parallal parking and such are starting to become more common.

Maybe the "Self Driving Car" isn't something that's going to just be up and invented, but as years go by we're going to be in control of our cars less and less and then just... look back one day and realize we aren't really driving anymore.
 
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One thing that does bother me is the potential for your car to stop being something physical that you own and starts being another "service" you have to pay for perptually under rules that the person that does own it can change on a whim.
 
As a non-car user, I can't wait to have robotic car all over the road.

While they can't drive worse than some of the people I see on the road, two things: 1) I still want to be able to switch to manual, 2) I expect some robotic aberrations to cause some deaths, too, so it will reduce accidents and traffic jams, but not entirely.
 
One thing that does bother me is the potential for your car to stop being something physical that you own and starts being another "service" you have to pay for perptually under rules that the person that does own it can change on a whim.
How is that different from any other rental service? If you do not like the terms of service you can go to a competitor instead.

Or do you think all self-driving cars will be owned by Google or some other monopoly, and you will have no competition to choose from? That would be a problem, but that's why we have anti-trust laws.
 
There's bound to be a failure rate... A certain percentage of accidents per mile. The thing would be, how would this compare to the same failure rate compared to human drivers.

We know that human drivers have accidents at a pretty predictable rate, that's been studied for a long time. We know that many of these accidents are caused by various "impairments" ranging from drugs/alcohol to sheer inattention (texting, wrestling with the kids....). These would presumably not occur with robo-cars.
Also, there is a small percentage of accidents caused by "driver failure"... Falling suddently incapacitated by heart attack, stroke, diabetic coma or whatever. Again, these would presumably not be a problem....

However... The poor schmuck struck down by a heart attack might sit there while his robo-car serenely continues to it's destination....
 
Google is not the only organization trying to develop a self-driving car. Mercedes-Benz has been working on it since the 1980s and automakers like General Motors and Toyota also have projects underway. Google staffers are currently using a driverless car in the Bay Area for testing and commuting. It has had glitches. One of the toughest problems is programming in technique.

If the car "sees" a pedestrian up ahead edging off the curb impatient to cross the street should the car slow down? Just in case the pedestrian is about to recklessly jaywalk? That might not be practical in congested urban areas.

How about a dog running out into the road? Should the car be programmed to stop or to run over the dog? How about if it's a squirrel?

Then there's other challenges. How do they program the car to recognize a stretch of flooded roadway up ahead? Will a driverless car be able to reliably recognize a ice patch on a snowy road?
 
I'd guess the first use would be military supply convoys.

After that, we'll probably see it applied to long distance trucking, and then busses -- the driver's a big chunk of the cost of bus service. That would be followed by private ownership and robot taxis.

It could be a very interesting future transport system. I have to admit that I'm looking forward to texting a robot taxi service and having it appear at my GPS co-ordinates. Of course, i've already got a Roomba.
 
I do wonder if we're are wrong in thinking that magically a "Self Driving Car" is just going to appear all at once.

I mean with automatic transmission, ABS, traction control, et al you already are in less control of the car then you were 50 years ago. Technologies like lane change avoidance, automatic breaking, automatic parallal parking and such are starting to become more common.

Maybe the "Self Driving Car" isn't something that's going to just be up and invented, but as years go by we're going to be in control of our cars less and less and then just... look back one day and realize we aren't really driving anymore.

Excellent point.
 
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