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"Real" Psis- for a game

DarkDaemon

New Blood
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Mar 28, 2013
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I've recently started running a pen/paper RPG game (GURPS, if anyone is curious). The players all have psychic powers, but otherwise, the world is very similar to our own. One of the players mentioned in passing the Million Dollar Challenge as a possible source of cash. So, I need to be prepared for when they contact the JREF.

What would the tests look like? There's a Prognosticator who's about 70% accurate with guessing cards, and that's the least blatant power. I assume something like a Zener test for her? There's some telekinesis, psychokinesis and teleportation, which are trivial to test- "move/teleport/set this on fire". The telepath is a bit harder- have some volunteers look/read something, see if he can pick it up afterward?

And what would the reaction/result be? By the rules, they get a check for $10k once they pass the main test, after the secondary test. The rest of the money arrives later. Presumably, it's taxed? Anyone know how much? Would the JREF publish/publicize the test/result? What about the individual reactions (if that's too personal, let me know)? Who's likely to administer the test? What level of probing/examining is likely?

Thank you for your time! I hope I can run an entertaining and possibly even a slightly educational game. If any of my players are reading this, great job. Now leave the thread so the game doesn't get spoiled!

Edit: Apparently, there's a pile of other challenges! Found a post by wardenclyffe on this forum with a dozen more. Going to check the ones close to character's locations. Any other important info I should know about?
 
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If psychic power are allowed, then turn it around against the player to make them difficult to use in presence of skeptic. For example that 70% guessing card suddenly drop down to a "normal" 25% (assuming Zener) due to the anti-psychic skeptic field.

That way even if you have your own poor version of the randi challenge, the presence of the skeptic nihilify their power, and thus making the price not easily winnable (*).

In fact if the world is as we know it msotly , then psychic power must be put in check by something, otherwise the world would be totally different, casino would bar entry, stock market would have anti psy watching for cheating etc... The fact that the world is quasi similar, you MUST have a coherent explanation on why then psy did not take the world over or why the randi challenge would even *exists* , why would THEY be the first one if psychic power exists ? Why would there even be a prize ? Pervasive Anti psy is a gamey coherent explanation enough.

(*) after all that's what some woo are pretending is happenning
 
All valid and great ideas. However, I must not have been clear enough- the psychic powers are new. I saw no other way to reconcile powers and a world similar to our own (other than a conspiracy of secrecy, but that's another story). There may be people with anti-psi, but it's not an automatic thing. At least one statistics professor has been thoroughly surprised, and is suspecting he is the victim of an incredibly silly prank.

As for the Zener test, accuracy is likely to be 90% for that- the earlier accuracy was for a 52 card deck, only counting both suit and rank correct as a hit.
 
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If the powers are new then what has changed in the world so that they exist now and not in the past? I also suggest that the JREF challenge would not be the best place to get money. Casinos could be hit hard before they worked out what was happening. Police would also pay a fortune for help to solve crimes. The list just goes on.

I also think you do not understand the JREF challenge properly. Here a couple of links. Study them

http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/1m-challenge/challenge-application.html
http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/component/content/article/37-static/254-jref-challenge-faq.html
 
If the powers are new then what has changed in the world so that they exist now and not in the past? I also suggest that the JREF challenge would not be the best place to get money. Casinos could be hit hard before they worked out what was happening. Police would also pay a fortune for help to solve crimes. The list just goes on.

I also think you do not understand the JREF challenge properly. Here a couple of links. Study them

[LINKS REMOVED]

Regarding the first part: great ideas. I'll keep that in mind for the players.

As for the JREF challenge, I read both of those links prior to posting. Could you direct me more specifically towards what you think I have misunderstood? Thank you.
 
Regarding the first part: great ideas. I'll keep that in mind for the players.

As for the JREF challenge, I read both of those links prior to posting. Could you direct me more specifically towards what you think I have misunderstood? Thank you.
Sorry I misunderstood something from your OP. Here is what I found about your questions in the OP.

Would the JREF publish/publicize the test/result? (The answer are extracts from the links I gave.)
4.6 How much of my application is confidential?

It isn’t. The JREF reserves the right to publish any and all materials regarding the Challenge.

Issue 1: I don’t want the publicity.

Response: You will get the publicity if you pass the Challenge, which you believe you can do. If you don’t want publicity, it’s best not to apply at all.

Issue 2: I’ve never been featured in a news story.

Response: Newspapers and news stations love human interest stories. Contact one and ask that they run your story. If you can really perform what you claim, that should be no problem!

Who's likely to administer the test?
That depends on the test. See this thread where a test was conduced by a third party in Sweden http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=32779.
 
Would the JREF publish/publicize the test/result? (The answer are extracts from the links I gave.)
Ah, I spotted that the JREF could publish, but I wasn't sure if it would. What are some likely methods of publicizing?

Who's likely to administer the test?
That depends on the test. See this thread where a test was conduced by a third party in Sweden [link]

Oh, that's a good idea- going through the old challenge applications. I'll take a look through them, thank you.

Update: One of the players wants publicity- specifically, wants to come out more or less on "their" terms, so they are not seen as suspicious or lying. They contacted a statistician, quantum physicist, and a skeptic. The skeptic seemed the most prepared to conduct a test, and mentioned the Million Dollar Challenge specifically, and offered to help the character set up a protocol. (A reminder that this is all taking place within a game). The player is the clairvoyant, and the most reliable and easily measured power is their ability to read cards. The protocol doesn't need to be as fully detailed as it would be for a real test, but I'd like to know that I haven't missed anything obvious/glaring.

The protocol is likely to be predicting cards that have been drawn from a deck.

The claimant shall be seated at a table, and not touch any of the materials as part of the test. She may not use any electronic devices, or contact anyone, or communicate with anyone other than to pause the test, for reasons medical, personal, or otherwise, or to announce the suit and rank of the card that has been drawn. The decks will be standard 52 card decks, selected, shuffled and drawn by people selected by the JREF. The claimant will be considered to have "passed" if they achieve at least X correct results out of Y guesses.


Some things I'm not sure of: is it alright that the card is drawn? Or would the JREF not agree to such a test, on account of being too easy to cheat? What would X and Y be?
 
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Ah, I spotted that the JREF could publish, but I wasn't sure if it would. What are some likely methods of publicizing?



Oh, that's a good idea- going through the old challenge applications. I'll take a look through them, thank you.

Update: One of the players wants publicity- specifically, wants to come out more or less on "their" terms, so they are not seen as suspicious or lying. They contacted a statistician, quantum physicist, and a skeptic. The skeptic seemed the most prepared to conduct a test, and mentioned the Million Dollar Challenge specifically, and offered to help the character set up a protocol. (A reminder that this is all taking place within a game). The player is the clairvoyant, and the most reliable and easily measured power is their ability to read cards. The protocol doesn't need to be as fully detailed as it would be for a real test, but I'd like to know that I haven't missed anything obvious/glaring.

The protocol is likely to be predicting cards that have been drawn from a deck.

The claimant shall be seated at a table, and not touch any of the materials as part of the test. She may not use any electronic devices, or contact anyone, or communicate with anyone other than to pause the test, for reasons medical, personal, or otherwise, or to announce the suit and rank of the card that has been drawn. The decks will be standard 52 card decks, selected, shuffled and drawn by people selected by the JREF. The claimant will be considered to have "passed" if they achieve at least X correct results out of Y guesses.


Some things I'm not sure of: is it alright that the card is drawn? Or would the JREF not agree to such a test, on account of being too easy to cheat? What would X and Y be?

Perhaps the most defining characteristic of the JREF Challenge is that each test is based entirely on the applicants claims. One of the first questions the testers might ask is "Do you have to see the back of the card to perform your ability or can we put the deck in a different room and still have you clairvoyantly state the suit and rank?"

Because I am not a JREF spokesperson, what I am about to say cannot be considered official in any way. Unless the applicant says the power works only with standard 52-card decks, the testers would probably simplify the test by reducing the number of cards. One of the problems with testing clairvoyance with a deck of cards is if 7H is predicted and 7D is drawn, then the applicant may insist that the result be counted as a success.

Also note that the JREF, prior to the test, has no interest in where the power comes from. The JREF adopted this position after applicants started writing 100-page screeds about the source of their powers. On the other hand, the testers might ask if the power is predicting the future or remote-viewing the cards while they are face down.
 
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I've recently started running a pen/paper RPG game (GURPS, if anyone is curious). The players all have psychic powers, but otherwise, the world is very similar to our own. One of the players mentioned in passing the Million Dollar Challenge as a possible source of cash. So, I need to be prepared for when they contact the JREF. [....]

Just to be clear about this, does your second sentence mean:

A. The players are pretending to have psychic powers, or

B. The players believe that they have psychic powers?

If the answer is A, then you're in the wrong place. If the answer is B, then it is up to the person who is claiming to have the power to apply for the challenge. (I am assuming you aren't that person.)

As others have pointed out, only the JREF speaks for the JREF. We do not. However, people here, like Ladewig, rjh01 and others, have been able to help applicants understand the challenge.

It is important to understand that the JREF is not in the business of proving paranormal phenomena. Randi set up the Challenge to determine if a person has such powers by eliminating non-paranormal causes. Applicant precisely describe their claimed ability to the JREF, and negotiate with the JREF the exact conditions of the test. Once these conditions have been negotiated, they are not modifiable by applicant or JREF without further negotiation.

Here is a post I wrote explaining the difference between what an applicant believes the test does and what the JREF believes -- although I hasten to say that this is my interpretation. I don't pretend that this is a wonderful explanation but it -- and that entire thread -- might be worth exploring.
 
Just to be clear about this, does your second sentence mean:

A. The players are pretending to have psychic powers, or

B. The players believe that they have psychic powers?

The players/characters (I've kinda been using the terms interchangeably), in game, believe that they have psychic powers - usually due to significant evidence of that fact (waking up floating over your bed, family complaining about heat you're making, best friend freaking out when they see you flying, going through several hundred decks and consistently getting 70% of the cards right).

The premise is that, up to a month before the game started, the world was normal. Now, suddenly, there's people running around with what looks very much like psychic powers. It's up to the players to decide what to do, investigate the powers and their possible sources, take over the world, don tights and save it, etc.

If the answer is A, then you're in the wrong place. If the answer is B, then it is up to the person who is claiming to have the power to apply for the challenge. (I am assuming you aren't that person.)

As others have pointed out, only the JREF speaks for the JREF. We do not. However, people here, like Ladewig, rjh01 and others, have been able to help applicants understand the challenge.

It is important to understand that the JREF is not in the business of proving paranormal phenomena. Randi set up the Challenge to determine if a person has such powers by eliminating non-paranormal causes. Applicant precisely describe their claimed ability to the JREF, and negotiate with the JREF the exact conditions of the test. Once these conditions have been negotiated, they are not modifiable by applicant or JREF without further negotiation.

That does make things a bit clearer, and means the JREF/challenge is an even better idea. The character in question wants two things from this: confirmation that these are paranormal powers, and not, say, merely a delusion. And if they are, wishes to come out publicly with them. It seems like the challenge accomplishes those things for her?

Here is a post I wrote explaining the difference between what an applicant believes the test does and what the JREF believes -- although I hasten to say that this is my interpretation. I don't pretend that this is a wonderful explanation but it -- and that entire thread -- might be worth exploring.

Link is slightly broken, needs massaging to work. As for the content, it makes a good point.

For the statistical design, how many correct cards out of how many guesses (for 52 card decks or Zener) would be required?

For the physical design, the applicant is willing and capable of demonstrating under a variety of situations, with varied success. The applicant claims a 75% rate on cards that she can see the backs of. The rate drops to 50% (which still beats random guessing significantly) if there is a screen, or the cards need to be guessed without being drawn. If in an adjoining room, the rate would be 25%.

These rates hold for any deck of about 52 cards, regardless of material or content. The rates would be about 10-20% higher with Zener cards.

If the applicant supplies this information, what kind of setup is likely to be used? The easiest for the applicant is someone from the JREF drawing cards, with her sitting ~6 feet away, and guessing. She does understand that might not be ok for the JREF and is willing to conduct the challenge blindfolded, on a sealed deck, etc, so long as it's understood that the success rate would drop (but still remain above random chance).

A reminder that this is occurring in a world of fiction, albeit one I'm trying to keep realistic. More Chronicle than X-men.
 
The premise is that, up to a month before the game started, the world was normal. Now, suddenly, there's people running around with what looks very much like psychic powers. It's up to the players to decide what to do, investigate the powers and their possible sources, take over the world, don tights and save it, etc.

If the applicant supplies this information, what kind of setup is likely to be used? The easiest for the applicant is someone from the JREF drawing cards, with her sitting ~6 feet away, and guessing. She does understand that might not be ok for the JREF and is willing to conduct the challenge blindfolded, on a sealed deck, etc, so long as it's understood that the success rate would drop (but still remain above random chance).

A reminder that this is occurring in a world of fiction, albeit one I'm trying to keep realistic. More Chronicle than X-men.

Better link: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=8392067#post8392067

If understand you, you are saying that in the game the person is going to attempt to win the MDC. In real life, this is not going to happen.

Either way, here is the kind of thing that the JREF might say to the applicant, with the reminder that this is MY interpretation only:

"Okay, you claim that if you can see the back of the cards, you can identify 75% of them correctly. So let's test that claim.

"Do you need to be in the same room with the cards, or can they be displayed on a TV screen? If you and the cards are in the same room, can you be 10 feet, 6 feet, 2 feet away from them? Can there be a piece of glass between you and the cards so that you can't touch them?

"Does it matter what the back of the card looks like? (For instance, we could number the cards 1 to 52 by pasting paper on the back, so the applicant could say that card 34 was the Jack of Clubs.) Could each card be sealed in a security-style envelope?

"Do you need to write down your identifications or can someone else do it? In either case, the identification will be written in pen on paper that shows any attempt to erase it. There will also be someone else recording your identifications. Each piece of paper will have boxes with the number of the card [that's the 1 to 52 numbers] and a place for the identification.

"Furthermore, there will be a video recording that starts from the time the deck is prepared and continues until the test is over. We will place one camera so it shows you, one so that it shows the cards, and one that shows the entire room.

"Once the test starts, no one will speak. The JREF representative will point to a card, and you will write the identification on the sheet in the appropriate box.

"You will be allowed to have an observer in the room out of your sight, but if that person moves or speaks or coughs or whatever, the test will be considered a failure. If you prefer, the person could be outside the room watching the video that we are recording." *

And then the applicant could say no, the TV wouldn't work, but 10 feet away is okay. But maybe putting paper on the back of the cards is okay. And so on.

When all those details and many others are worked out, and the statistical design (number of trials, times the deck is shuffled, etc.) is agreed on, then both parties sign an agreement about the details of the setup.

Is this the sort of thing you are trying to find out?

I deliberately did not discuss the statistics; that's not my field. Others can answer that. However, it is generally the case that the JREF wants the result of the preliminary test to have a probability of less than 1/1000 of happening by chance. The final MDC probability is more rigorous.

Again, this is only an illustration. In practice, these negotiations can take months ... and may never lead to a test. Check out the thread in the MDC section of the challenge.


*I am assuming that the video cameras could feed to a recorder and monitor outside the room. Also there might be other safeguards against cheating or inadvertent disclosure of the cards.
 
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Xterra's description seems exceptionally accurate to me. There are always video cameras and the testers always tell the applicant, if you get up and leave the field of view of this camera, then the test is over and cannot be considered a success.

The other important point is the open or unblinded test that is always performed before the blinded test. A tester will hold up a card and say "this card is 3C, can you see that it is the 3C just by looking at the back?" Such a test rules out the plethora of excuses that is always offered when the applicant fails.
 
Better link: [link removed]

If understand you, you are saying that in the game the person is going to attempt to win the MDC. In real life, this is not going to happen.

That is entirely, 100% correct! I'm of the strong personal opinion that there is nobody who can win the MDC, and that the likelyhood of such a person coming to exist in the future is about as likely as 2+2=5.

The fiction is to examine, explore and play in a world where that is not true.

[SNIP of excellent description of protocol]
Again, this is only an illustration. In practice, these negotiations can take months ... and may never lead to a test. Check out the thread in the MDC section of the challenge.


*I am assuming that the video cameras could feed to a recorder and monitor outside the room. Also there might be other safeguards against cheating or inadvertent disclosure of the cards.

Oh, thank you! This is exactly the sort of thing I was looking for! This gives me a great idea of what the negotiation and protocol might look like.
 
Ladewig, I am glad I got it right. Thanks for the thumbs-up.

I'm still confused, though, about whether DarkDaemon's role player is really going to attempt the MDC, or whether this is just a way to make the game realistic.

ETA cross-posted, just as DarkDaemon posted. So now we know. This is in the game.

DarkDaemon, it would be interesting to know how this plays out (pun intended). Please keep us informed.

Edited yet again. Why do you think no one can win the MDC?
 
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Sure, I'll keep you updated. Games are usually on Sunday.

Regarding winning the MDC:
More accurately, I think the odds of someone winning it within the next 100 years are <<1%. (significantly less than one percent)

This is due to my belief that there are no paranormal events, powers, abilities or entities.

The only way for someone to win the MDC is purely through chance. Looking at the # of applicants who actually go on to take the preliminary test- on the order of 1/year, that's a 1/1000 chance per year of someone passing the preliminary. That means, a 1/1000/1,000,000 chance per year of someone winning (first passing the prelim, then the final).

In the game, where half the characters are capable of reliable telekinesis, those odds are very different. It becomes more a question of whether they want to pass the challenge.
 
Why restrict the prediction to the next 100 years? (Unless you think the species might develop some psychic ability after that.)

As for the MDC, the point of all the rules and of the statistical design is to eliminate, as far as possible, winning by cheating or accident. Of the two, the more likely is cheating. It is possible for someone to win by accident, but if it happened, I think that there would be re-testing to ensure that there had not been any cheating.

In your game, where people by definition "are capable of reliable telekinesis," passing the test is dead easy -- if someone is in that part of the population. And then there exists the question of whether they want to win -- for which, see the thread in the MDC sub-forum that addresses exactly that question.
 
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Because 100 is a nice, round number. If we used base 2, I'd probably go with 128. Maybe 256.

Yep, I wanted to figure out what those anti-cheat/anti-luck measures would be.

As for whether they want to pass, that's more up to the players. So far, most have been a bit secretive about their powers, but not paranoidly so. And as I mentioned, it looks like at least one player is planning on going public with their powers.
 
Ladewig meant to write, "Such a test should be sufficient to rule out the plethora of excuses that is always offered when the applicant fails, but somehow never is."

FTFY

I will admit in an uncharacteristically gracious manner that your post is a far, far better post than mine.
 
Glad you approve, Ladewig. I knew that it was a momentary lapse on your part and wanted to save you the trouble of having to correct it.

And of course, as we know, the applicants agree that the conditions are fair and that they had input into them and that nothing in the setup, absolutely nothing at all, can prevent their doing their woo.

Then when they can't do it, there will have been ... something in the setup that prevented them from doing their woo.

That doesn't matter here, because the internal parameters of the game universe allow paranormality. (And if that's not a recognized word, it should be.)
 
The bigger danger here is another psi sneaking in and ruining the test. Or using it as an opportunity for assassination. Or any of a dozen nefarious schemes.
 
In the context of your game, yes, those are dangers.

In the real-world context of the MDC, Ladewig's judgement (wth my minor addition) is what happens. It's not a danger, but it's surely a self-justification, and a rationalization: "I really can do it, but something in the conditions prevented it."
 
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Speaking about the in-game fictional scenario:

The JREF has reasons for reserving the right to publicize the results of challenges, including some that would apply if a challenge were successful. As a non-profit organization, the JREF has fiduciary responsibility to spend its funds in ways that are legal for such an organization. Essentially, if they pay out a million dollars, they must prove that they had to by the terms of the challenge contract. Publicizing not only the results of the test, but the full raw data including video records, would help them do that.

One likely event in the aftermath, then, is a lot of skeptics, magicians, and even fake psychics poring over every frame of the video to see if they could spot a trick. Speculative theories of "how it was done" would proliferate, and if any such theory could manage to be complete and consistent with the evidence, it would likely become a popular explanation for "how the JREF was duped." Of course, preventing any such theory from being possible is the goal of the test design, but it's hard to say what people would come up with after the fact. More likely, there would be a few competing and variously flawed theories, each contradicting the known facts in different ways (and covering up those contradictions by asserting that some of the data or evidence was faked, one or more of the skeptics were in on it, and so forth).

If a strong theory arises, there would be calls to repeat the test with additional controls in place, and possibly, sponsors coming forth to offer to pay for such tests. So, your psychic character could have additional income from that, although that would probably be minor compared to things like appearance fees to be on talk shows and the like.

Now, the real million-dollar question in this scenario is, how successful at such public demonstrations would a real psychic have to be, before some "goat staring" types in the government got involved. I know the evil gubmint whisking fledgeling psychics (especially minors!) off to secret high-security laboratories is a horrible cliché but there are actually some pretty good reasons why governments would be concerned about psi powers if they had good evidence that they existed. You'd pretty much need a reason why the intelligence agencies wouldn't be doing that, if they don't, in the game. For instance, a high-level government official who blocks such plans because he's a mole for the Chinese and wants China to get a lead on psi research.

Wiser psychics might play it a little cooler than that, keeping their public exhibitions on the level of "better than Uri Geller but still probably just really good tricks," figuring that most of the public will believe it's real anyhow and will line their pockets accordingly, while at the same time they wouldn't be frightening the powers that be too much.

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
One possibility is that the psychic is incredibly psychic -- and uses only enough of her power to succeed at the task. Then when the "evil gubmint" tries to abduct her, she puts forth her full power and foils the agents.

All sorts of good plot turns are possible here. (And many or most have been used in various science-fiction works. Doesn't mean they're not still good.)


ETA I would have said there are a myriad of plot turns, but don't want Myriad turning on me.
 
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Heh. The fun part? The psychic planning to take on the challenge? Part of the "evil gubmint". Sitting senator. I believe the plan might be to create an agency or something to deal with the psis cropping up. I'll have to see. Still, a great post, Myriad. It's good to have a perspective on what the aftereffects might be.

What are some ideas for ways people could call "hoax" on the challenge? Small muscle twitches on part of the applicant/someone watching = signals? Bribery of people running the test?
 
Heh. The fun part? The psychic planning to take on the challenge? Part of the "evil gubmint". Sitting senator. I believe the plan might be to create an agency or something to deal with the psis cropping up. I'll have to see. Still, a great post, Myriad. It's good to have a perspective on what the aftereffects might be.


Interesting. I'd have to say that our senator's chances of getting re-elected would be rather in jeopardy if he or she won the challenge. Between those who would consider psychic powers as a form of satanic witchcraft, those who regard the whole thing as a distasteful hoax, those who are perfectly willing to believe in psychic powers but don't think it's an appropriately dignified hobby for a senator, and those afraid of being "mind controlled," there would be a lot of political hay for the opposition party to make.

Taking the challenge and losing it for whatever reason (interference by another psychic, for instance) would be even more damaging. The ridicule would be ceaseless, and it would have some teeth, because there are rational reasons for doubting whether a person who (as far as anyone could tell) either had delusions of being psychic or had planned a hoax and failed to even carry it off would be suitable for such a high office.

(When it comes to fears of being mind controlled or having the senator use mind control on other government officials, it doesn't matter whether or not the psychic's abilities actually include mind control. People don't make fine distinctions in such things. Among all the superpowers and deities and so forth in the Marvel universe, I find the single least plausible thing about it is how the public goes around saying things like "The Fantastic Four are okay because they got their super powers from mysterious cosmic rays, but we should kill all the mutants!" If they really hate and fear mutants so much, why would they believe anyone with super powers who claimed not to be a mutant? And contrariwise, why wouldn't the poor persecuted mutants go around saying, "Mutant? Me? Nah, I got these powers from a, um... radioactive... experimental serum... from a mummy's tomb... in the Bermuda Triangle.")

What are some ideas for ways people could call "hoax" on the challenge? Small muscle twitches on part of the applicant/someone watching = signals? Bribery of people running the test?


Basically, yes. If the challenge is properly conducted, there won't be any actual signals or bribery to find, and in fact such signals or bribery would not even be able to produce the results obtained. (It becomes more plausible with bribery/collusion of several people.) But look at the kind of things moon landing hoax theorists and 9/11 conspiracy theorists latch onto. If the middle name of one of the testers happens to be similar to the surname of a relative of the psychic, they'll be accused of being relatives and therefore of being complicit. The simplest explanation would be that everyone involved is in on it.

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
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