Philippines: This Will End Well

He's an interesting guy. Very flamboyant. Bold. Eccentric!

It's the first time I see a diplomatic and strategic alliance come to an end because one of the parties simply starting to insult the other party, burning all his bridges before having an actual deal with his new partners. One of which is trying to occupy its territorial waters.

It's an unusual approach than one usually doesn't see in people who are not currently in the midst of a meth binge.
 
So mild criticism is enough for him to discard a relationship with the United States but actual military aggression from China makes him want to be their ally? Seems odd, but I'm not convinced that this isn't just part of a negotiating strategy. Duterte seems a little crazy, but I don't think he's dumb.
 
Jules Galen said:
I get the feeling that is what he is doing. He is creating an enemy to fight so that people will unite about him. So far, only 3000 low-level street dealers have been whacked. I see there is a hesitation to go for the Big Boyz (the guys who really control the Drug Trade)...who won't put up with being murdered like a poor peasant in the street. Seriously, the Big Boyz - the head of these Drug Cartels - are capable of a type of violence that would make even Osama Bin Laden vomit. And they have proved it with the release of utterly gruesome executions of Drug Informants.

Yeah...Duterte could wipe out the Big Boyz, too. But I'm starting to think they (Duterte and the Drug Cartels) compliment each other....they need each other. The Cartels provide Duterte a ready supply of small time enemies to execute, while Duterte trims competition against the Cartels and insure high prices.
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dudalb said:
Duarte compares himself to Adolf Hitler

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/30/asia/duterte-hitler-comparison/index.html
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I'm more reminded of von Plehve:
"What this country needs is a short, victorious war to stem the tide of revolution."

That ended well...
 
Eddie Dane said:
He's an interesting guy. Very flamboyant. Bold. Eccentric!

It's the first time I see a diplomatic and strategic alliance come to an end because one of the parties simply starting to insult the other party, burning all his bridges before having an actual deal with his new partners. One of which is trying to occupy its territorial waters.

It's an unusual approach than one usually doesn't see in people who are not currently in the midst of a meth binge.
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Not trying to occupy his territorial waters. They have occupied them. Fishermen no longer have viable water to fish on the western side of the Philippines.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Duterte once again told President Obama to "go to hell"

He said last week the current joint military exercises would be the last ones while he is in office, he warned:
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On point 1: Maybe Trump needs him for his VP candidate. :p

OK, he wants to cut the cooperative security deal we have, and replace that with ... well, we'll see. If this is more than rhetoric, he's playing into Chinese hands.

So it goes.
 
Darth Rotor said:
If this is more than rhetoric, he's playing into Chinese hands.
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Good on him, I guess. He won't be the first to be lured by Asian money. Go check Tonga's voting record on whaling, for instance.

What I'm seeing is a pattern of pandering to China to a degree where I must ask: Does China already have Duterte Harry in its pocket?

Accepting China's territorial acquisition/s? Check.

Insult Obama on the same Asian trip? Check.

Saying he will wind down US involvement in defence? Check.

Remove competition to Chinese meth? Check.

Hmmm....
 
He could just be terrified of China. Massively powerful country nearby making territorial incursions. Maybe he just doesn't want to pick a fight he knows he can't win.
 
Darth Rotor said:
On point 1: Maybe Trump needs him for his VP candidate. :p

OK, he wants to cut the cooperative security deal we have, and replace that with ... well, we'll see. If this is more than rhetoric, he's playing into Chinese hands.

So it goes.
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If he wants to "break up" with the US, I say fine. The main break up already happened years ago anyway when they closed down our military bases in the P.I. Since then it's been a lot more arms-length anyway. The alliance is (was) more for their sake than ours anyway. I don't see what we get out of it.


https://fronteranews.com/news/asia/much-foreign-aid-manila-lose-washington/

This is significant due to the fact that The Philippines was one of the pillars of the Obama Administration’s pivot to Asia in 2011. As a result, military assistance and foreign aid sent to Manila from Washington in recent years has been substantial. In 2015, the Philippines received approximately $175 million in U.S. development assistance, and a total of $50 million in foreign military financing.

In early 2016, it was announced that The Philippines will get its biggest US aid package in 15 years to help the country beef up its ill-equipped military. The Philippine Ambassador to the United States, Jose Cuisia, said that The Philippines will get more than US$120 million in military aid 2016, almost double the amount Washington normally extends each year.

Of the total amount, US$79 million will be traditional military aid, with an additional US$42 million coming from the new US Southeast Asia Maritime Initiative, a maritime capacity-building program launched by US Defense Secretary Ash Carter.

Additionally, The Philippines has purchased nearly $1 billion worth of military equipment from the US since 2012 including two US Coast Guard cutters, and 12 FA-50 light fighter jets.

Secretary Carter also announced in April another military deal that gave the U.S. access to five Philippine military bases to house American forces that will rotate in and out of the country for training and other missions. The bases included Antonio Bautista Air Base, Basa Air Base, Fort Magsaysay, Lumbia Air Base, and Mactan-Benito Ebuen Air Base. However, this could all be set to change.

Last week, Duterte said that joint military exercises of Filipino and American troops scheduled for the first week in October in The Philippines will be the last such drills. While in Hawaii to meet with Southeast Asian defense ministers last Friday 30 September, Secretary Carter hinted at growing U.S. impatience with Duterte’s recent proclamations, “Just speaking personally for myself, I find these comments deeply troubling.”
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So, let's stop giving that money to the Philippines. Forget about joint training exercises or rotating troops through bases in the Philippines. There is no special US national interest at stake really. Having an ally against China? For what?

Funny but I think maybe we have a better relationship with Vietnam now than with the P.I. If Duterte wants to throw it all away, that is.
 
Poll shows majority in Philippines satisfied with Duterte

AP said:
MANILA, Philippines (AP) — An independent poll released Thursday showed that more than three-quarters of Filipinos are satisfied with President Rodrigo Duterte, even though he is under fire internationally for his deadly crackdown on suspected drug dealers and users.

The survey, conducted by Social Weather Stations from Sept. 24 to Sept. 27 and published Thursday, shows 76 percent of 1,200 adults polled nationwide were satisfied with Duterte's performance, 11 percent were dissatisfied, and 13 percent were undecided. There was a margin of error of 3 percentage points. [...]

The survey showed respondents in the southern Philippine region of Mindanao, an insurgency-ridden region where Duterte is from, gave him the highest rating, with 88 percent satisfied and just 4 percent not satisfied.
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Puppycow said:
If he wants to "break up" with the US, I say fine. The main break up already happened years ago anyway when they closed down our military bases in the P.I. Since then it's been a lot more arms-length anyway. The alliance is (was) more for their sake than ours anyway. I don't see what we get out of it.
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Location, location, location, just like with Turkey.

Not only that, but I prefer the relationship be a bit more even handed than the previous one where we were all over the PI like a cheap suit. What that means is we'll have ups and downs in our relationship, as we do with the French, for example. Some years we get along better than others. I think that's healthy. This guy, well, healthy remains to be seen. He's got plenty of time to lose popularity. Many presidents do the longer they stay in office.
 
Duterte awaits 'soft landing' on first state visit to Beijing

China Daily said:
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who arrives in Beijing on Tuesday for his first state visit to China, said he agrees with Beijing's call for peaceful settlement of the South China Sea issue.

Duterte expects a "soft landing" in the dispute over the issue. He will visit China for four days.

"I'll be there to talk about it softly," Duterte told China News Service in an interview released on Monday. "We take away war or violence, because that is not a good option." [...]

Zhao Jianhua, Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, told Philippines media on Friday that it is hoped that after Duterte's visit, investment from China would rise significantly in areas such as infrastructure, railways, highways, seaports and airports.

Zhao also envisioned an increase in Chinese tourists to the Philippines, bringing as much as $1 billion annually to the country.

Duterte touched down in Brunei — the first leg of his trip — on Sunday evening, and he will leave China on Friday to visit Japan.
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Darth Rotor said:
What, you Kiwis going to go in and stop this anti Drug crusade of his, or just sit back and whinge? :confused:
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Who's whinging? I'm just reporting the facts.

Funny you should mention Kiwis, both Philippines and China have told our Foreign Affairs people to stay off touchy subjects in the past week.
 
Darth Rotor said:
What, you Kiwis going to go in and stop this anti Drug crusade of his, or just sit back and whinge? :confused:
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The US isn't exactly doing much about it either, besides scolding him.

We have sat out worse genocides before: Cambodia, Rwanda come to mind. Duterte is not someone I would support but at the end of the day, Philippines is a sovereign country and he is the one the people elected. He didn't come to power by some sort of coup or violent revolution, he was elected.

He does seem to have a very thin skin for criticism though. Latest news is that he is threatening to withdraw Philippines from the UN because some people there criticized him. The horror. Israel gets criticized at the UN all the time but has never threatened to withdraw to my knowledge. This whole fallout with the US is partly because he can't stand a bit of mild criticism, which mostly could have been ignored or brushed off anyway.
 
Puppycow said:
If you have a rebuttal to make then make it. "If you believe X then you are stupid" isn't an argument.
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Did you read this thread including my posts starting there? The US is in no position for any mild or otherwise criticism according to Duterte and I would say also according to the objective facts, no matter what the British propaganda rag comes up with about drug dealers we have to think of. Maybe some of the latter is justified, but the thing here is that at least the leaders of Phillipines and China, and apparently many others in the region, have had enough of the Empire's "pivot to Asia". That's the core of the issue.
 
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Childlike Empress said:
Did you read this thread including my posts starting there?
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Yes, I do remember that one actually. I am not unaware of the history between the US and Philippines. But that was over 100 years ago. I didn't think it was all that relevant to the current situation. You think Duterte wants to break ties with the US because of ancient history?

Here's some data about current (recent) public attitudes toward the
US in the Philippines. And here is a comparison with other Asian countries. Last year, 2015, the Philippines was probably the most pro-US country in the world.
America’s image is mostly positive among the Asian nations polled. Particularly large majorities see the U.S. favorably in the Philippines (92%), South Korea (84%) and Vietnam (77%).
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Of the countries polled, no other country had a more positive view of the US last year. Most people don't think so much about stuff that happened before their grandparents were born.

And for comparison, here's how countries viewed China.
In 2014 58% in the Philippines had a negative view of China. In Vietnam it was 78% with a negative view.

Childlike Empress said:
The US is in no position for any mild or otherwise criticism according to Duterte and I would say also according to the objective facts, no matter what the British propaganda rag comes up with about drug dealers we have to think of. Maybe some of the latter is justified, but the thing here is that at least the leaders of Phillipines and China, and apparently many others in the region, have had enough of the Empire's "pivot to Asia". That's the core of the issue.
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So because the US behaved badly over 100 years ago, the US "is in no position" to criticize Duterte today? Fine, I'll say again what I said earlier:

Puppycow said:
If he wants to "break up" with the US, I say fine. . . . The alliance is (was) more for their sake than ours anyway.
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We will be just fine with or without the Philippines.
 
Well, apparently we have a conundrum here with pew polls saying that the attitude towards the US is top notch positive in the Philippines, while they just elected a leader who is and has been outspokenly for independence of his country, bringing up old sins of the Empire, even saying he hates your guts - and yet has a few months after his election stellar approval ratings in polls.

Like they say: never trust a statistic you didn't forge yourself.
 
Childlike Empress said:
Well, apparently we have a conundrum here with pew polls saying that the attitude towards the US is top notch positive in the Philippines, while they just elected a leader who is and has been outspokenly for independence of his country, bringing up old sins of the Empire, even saying he hates your guts - and yet has a few months after his election stellar approval ratings in polls.

Like they say: never trust a statistic you didn't forge yourself.
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Well the polls were taken before Duterte's election. It's entirely possible that his attitudes toward the US are not why most people like him. He is still in the "honeymoon period" though and often approval ratings for newly-elected leaders start out high and then go down over time. I suspect that the people elected him mostly to "get tough on drugs" and drug dealers, and that's exactly what he is doing. So he is popular for that. We'll see how his approval ratings are in a year or two.
 
Puppycow said:
Well the polls were taken before Duterte's election. It's entirely possible that his attitudes toward the US are not why most people like him. He is still in the "honeymoon period" though and often approval ratings for newly-elected leaders start out high and then go down over time. I suspect that the people elected him mostly to "get tough on drugs" and drug dealers, and that's exactly what he is doing. So he is popular for that. We'll see how his approval ratings are in a year or two.
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Sure. Entirely possible. Have you meanwhile made yourself familiar with the concept of "full spectrum dominance" (it's not that this stuff is hidden outside the Empire's propaganda bubble)?
 
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Puppycow said:
The US isn't exactly doing much about it either, besides scolding him.

We have sat out worse genocides before: Cambodia, Rwanda come to mind. Duterte is not someone I would support but at the end of the day, Philippines is a sovereign country and he is the one the people elected. He didn't come to power by some sort of coup or violent revolution, he was elected.

He does seem to have a very thin skin for criticism though. Latest news is that he is threatening to withdraw Philippines from the UN because some people there criticized him. The horror. Israel gets criticized at the UN all the time but has never threatened to withdraw to my knowledge. This whole fallout with the US is partly because he can't stand a bit of mild criticism, which mostly could have been ignored or brushed off anyway.
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Eh? What definition of genocide are you using?
 
The Atheist said:
Who's whinging? I'm just reporting the facts.

Funny you should mention Kiwis, both Philippines and China have told our Foreign Affairs people to stay off touchy subjects in the past week.
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And you do as your master bids. Is that it? :confused: Strangely, I saw an article today where a US warship is making, for the first time in about 30 years, a port visit to New Zealand. (It's an Arleigh Burke class destroyer. Really cool kit. Take a look, or a public tour, if you get the chance. I got to tour the John Paul Jones back in the 1990's. Me, career naval officer, was impressed with how good of a ship that class is).
 
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Wolrab said:
Eh? What definition of genocide are you using?
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You don't think there were genocides in Cambodia and Rwanda?

ETA: Sorry, that was poorly worded. What's happening in the Philippines currently is not genocide (not yet anyway), but a large number of government-sponsored extra-judicial homicides.
 
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Darth Rotor said:
And you do as your master bids. Is that it? :confused:
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No, but I have to confess I don't see much one man can do. I'd try going over and asking Duterte to stop, but I get this terrible premonition it would be:

A - huge waste of time & money, and
B - extremely dangerous.

The only action I can and have taken is to stop giving their charities money and stop helping Filipinos immigrate.

Darth Rotor said:
Strangely, I saw an article today where a US warship is making, for the first time in about 30 years, a port visit to New Zealand. (It's an Arleigh Burke class destroyer. Really cool kit. Take a look, or a public tour, if you get the chance. I got to tour the John Paul Jones back in the 1990's. Me, career naval officer, was impressed with how good of a ship that class is).
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I'm not sure they'd allow me on board!
 
Puppycow said:
You don't think there were genocides in Cambodia and Rwanda?

ETA: Sorry, that was poorly worded. What's happening in the Philippines currently is not genocide (not yet anyway), but a large number of government-sponsored extra-judicial homicides.
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Thanks for the clarification. I was worried you might have blown a gasket or something as you are usually spot on.
 
a_unique_person said:
Duterte ditches the USA. Fair enough. Now he wants to be run by China. WTF?
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Very bloody clever move. Why have gunboat diplomacy when renminbi diplomacy works so well?

Pretty damned funny in the context of history.

Duterte's been bought.
 
Will it be needed?
I thought Duterte was going to have all the addicts killed?
 
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