Philippines: This Will End Well

According to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Pattaya tourist numbers are at an all-time high for 2016.

While 2 years into a coup. :) The 12th since 1932, every seven years on average. So a know-nothing can screech about how terrible, how unstable things are - but that person would be showing just as much ignorance and deceit as many here are on the Philippines. It's just so lame, so easy.

You made yourself a target for a pretty easy slam but I am not going to do that. I am interested in the Philippines discussion and informing people what it is about Duterte that has him so overwhelmingly popular.

Again with the straw men? I didn't say it's unstable. I said that the tourist economy is in the crapper. The economy of Pattaya is tourists... not just the current run of Chinese tour groups who don't spend any off-site money that doesn't go to the Chinese operator, but the Europeans and North Americans and wealthy Asians who spend money on entertainment and shopping. Those tourists are not coming. You can rent commercial property here at forty per cent of the pre-coup prices. You can buy condos from people who were contracted to buy them two years ago, and they're taking seventy cents on the dollar.... virgin condos that have never been moved into. My residential rent is thirty percent discounted because they wanted a tenant so badly.

And it ain't getting better.
 
What a silly statement.

Is USSR still in existence? Is Saddam still boss of Iraq? I Germany still two countries? Vietnam?

Things end all the time. Maybe you missed them?

Last time I checked people still live there, so there isn't actually an end, just a different chapter. That isn't being pedantic, but a way of thinking.
 
Again with the straw men? I didn't say it's unstable. I said that the tourist economy is in the crapper. The economy of Pattaya is tourists... not just the current run of Chinese tour groups who don't spend any off-site money that doesn't go to the Chinese operator, but the Europeans and North Americans and wealthy Asians who spend money on entertainment and shopping. Those tourists are not coming. You can rent commercial property here at forty per cent of the pre-coup prices. You can buy condos from people who were contracted to buy them two years ago, and they're taking seventy cents on the dollar.... virgin condos that have never been moved into. My residential rent is thirty percent discounted because they wanted a tenant so badly.

And it ain't getting better.

What killed the tourism? There are some sporadic terror attacks, I know.
I bet most Europeans don't even know what the political situation is in Thailand.
 
What killed the tourism? There are some sporadic terror attacks, I know.
I bet most Europeans don't even know what the political situation is in Thailand.

At the risk of the no-parallel derail continuing, it was in phases, not all attributable to the coup but the political unrest and coup were a major part.

In Dec. '13, the yellow shirt demonstrators shut down Bangkok. From then until the coup, there were minor skirmishes and all the consulates warned their nationals to only come here if you had to. We were in our second year and business had been going steadily up, but crashed with those December shut-downs. Everyone hoped it would pick up once the military relaxed the curfew and regulations, but that was our off-season. It never picked up again, but that was just bad luck... both Russia and Norway had currency devaluations and those were our two biggest-spending tourist demographics. That was just in time to kill Christmas of '14. I think it'll remain low until we have an election - maybe in '17, but that will be accompanied by some violence, you can be sure. If it is, the generals may just decide to stay in power. My bet is that they'll be running things, by hook or crook, until at least '20.

If you Google "tourist attacked Thailand", you'll see some of the P.R. problems we've got. With no tourists we have a large transient population in the tourist areas who have turned to dealing or to crime. When the local police colonel announces on TV that "with the month end coming up and people needing money to pay bills, we expect an upswing in robbery", you've got a problem. Robbing is a way to raise money and recognized as such.
 
At the risk of the no-parallel derail continuing, it was in phases, not all attributable to the coup but the political unrest and coup were a major part.

In Dec. '13, the yellow shirt demonstrators shut down Bangkok. From then until the coup, there were minor skirmishes and all the consulates warned their nationals to only come here if you had to. We were in our second year and business had been going steadily up, but crashed with those December shut-downs. Everyone hoped it would pick up once the military relaxed the curfew and regulations, but that was our off-season. It never picked up again, but that was just bad luck... both Russia and Norway had currency devaluations and those were our two biggest-spending tourist demographics. That was just in time to kill Christmas of '14. I think it'll remain low until we have an election - maybe in '17, but that will be accompanied by some violence, you can be sure. If it is, the generals may just decide to stay in power. My bet is that they'll be running things, by hook or crook, until at least '20.

If you Google "tourist attacked Thailand", you'll see some of the P.R. problems we've got. With no tourists we have a large transient population in the tourist areas who have turned to dealing or to crime. When the local police colonel announces on TV that "with the month end coming up and people needing money to pay bills, we expect an upswing in robbery", you've got a problem. Robbing is a way to raise money and recognized as such.

OK clear. Didn't mean to derail, but there seems to be a strong parallel between what Duterte wants to do and a major Thai crackdown on drugs from a couple op years ago.
From the documentary I watched, Thai meth use was not hedonistic, but used to work long hours, leading to some people getting psychosis and being violent/causing hostage situations etc. This apparently kicked off the crackdown.

But is a kind of drug use that a regime is likely to tolerate. Productive worker bees on pills.

I'm interested how effective autocratic regimes can be in fighting crime. I read a book about the Mafia which stated that Mussolini nearly wiped out the Sicilian Mafia by basically occupying the island and incarcerating the entire male population of some villages. Bastards popped right back up after WW2.
 
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What killed the tourism? .

Nothing killed tourism in Thailand, it is at an all-time high:

http://pattaya-funtown.com/tourist-arrivals-hit-record-high-january-february-2016/

The sex tour industry is being eclipsed by (gasp!) family tourism. Hotels are loving it and sex bars are not. He caters to the sex tour industry, whereas a good businessman adapts to the new, larger market.

These recent bombings though, that will have an impact. Thai coups don't have bombs and guns shooting people.

Here is a wonderful example of CNN trying to sell advertising with virtue-signalling US markets:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/11/opinions/opinion-philippines-isolation/index.html

Some great examples of propaganda here. First, the dirty little monkey Duterte is getting called to account. lol. He just reconfirmed what he said yet again - the Ambassador is a fag.

It is promoting the establishment line - "contain china" - by pretending there are only two parties in the South China Sea property contest - China stealing from the Philippines.

It promotes the fake international court ruling. It conceals all the building by the Vietnamese and others, whose claims are equally vacated if this court decision has any meaning. It is ridiculous. It does not adjudicate any claims, and none of the seven parties to the ASEAN discussions is abiding by it. They continue to assert their claims, lol. All of them.

It conceals the fact they are right now negotiating a railroads-for-property agreement. Philippines wants railroads. China wants to be left alone investing in these gargantuan projects.

It conceals the fact these islands are for the twin purposes of hydrocarbon development and Hong-Kong style trans-shipment ports. It pretends instead that the US has to enforce this fake international court ruling against China, and China alone because it is being militarily aggressive.

I guess it sells advertising, and pushes the establishment line at the same time.
 
You can buy condos from people who were contracted to buy them two years ago, and they're taking seventy cents on the dollar.... virgin condos that have never been moved into.
Hmmm, might be time to get one, and hope for a change in the weather. What are they going for, in US dollars?
He just reconfirmed what he said yet again - the Ambassador is a fag.
Just out of curiosity, is the American Ambassador to the Philippines homosexual, or is this solely a machismo style insult for the benefit of the home audience? (Memory foggy, I seem to remember a famous boxer from the Philippines using that epithet ... but it might be another boxer).
 
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Just out of curiosity, is the American Ambassador to the Philippines homosexual, or is this solely a machismo style insult for the benefit of the home audience? (Memory foggy, I seem to remember a famous boxer from the Philippines using that epithet ... but it might be another boxer).


Looked him up and it's interesting that this is the guy who was kicked out of Bolivia by Evo for plotting against the government when he was ambassador there (2008).
 
Hmmm, might be time to get one, and hope for a change in the weather. What are they going for, in US dollars?

Sorry - have to answer even if a derail. [Social obligations.]
A friend just bought a bungalow. Three bed/two bath, gated community with community pool,... sixty thousand usd, about two million baht. They're not good rental properties, though. It takes longer than ten years to amortize, and while you might get lucky and find a long-term tenant, a lot of houses and condos are empty a lot of the time. For someone who's retired, though and wants to spend a few months a year, they're quite a steal. Prices go up as you get closer to the beach, of course. And if you're looking for studio or 1 BR, you can even find condos near the water. At one to two million baht, you just leave it empty until you go for your vacation.
 
Thanks, FMW, have a friend (his wife is Thai) who has a place in Thailand but they only spend about two to four weeks out of the year in it. (Her family keeps an eye on it, and either uses it or leases it ...)

By your posting, I know that you weren't one of the places bombed that I heard about in the news. Good.
 
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-14/marcos-hero-burial-plan-sparks-philippines-protests/7733154

Protests have broken out in Manila over Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's plans to honour the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos with a state burial.


Duterte has defended Marcos saying the two families have history

Protesters included Marcos-era victims of torture and imprisonment

Marcos preserved body has been on display since he died in exile in 1989

About 2,000 people gathered in heavy rain to denounce Mr Duterte's plans to move Marcos' remains from his northern hometown to the National Heroes' Cemetery in the capital, Manila, next month.

Surprise, surprise. What are the odds that Duterte follows his heroes lead and declares himself dictator.
 
Surprise, surprise. What are the odds that Duterte follows his heroes lead and declares himself dictator.

High, I hope; I've decided to take the selfish view.

Emigration attempts by skilled (and therefore smarter) Filipinos are at an all-time high, and the west desperately needs skilled technicians - especially ones with superior work ethics, which seems to be something endemic in Filipinos. I reckon migrant enquiries are by 20% in the past three months out of Philippines, and I doubt I'm seeing an abnormal share to what I have for the past 20 years.

As long as Duterte Harry and his supporters keep cheering the deaths in the streets, it's helping me and my bank balance, so I think the best thing we can do is lend 100% support to the guy.

Dictator, schmictator... He'll be King **** of Dung Hill.
 
Just out of curiosity, is the American Ambassador to the Philippines homosexual, or is this solely a machismo style insult for the benefit of the home audience? (Memory foggy, I seem to remember a famous boxer from the Philippines using that epithet ... but it might be another boxer).

It's very similar to calling someone or something "gay" here in the USA. So it points to our hypocrisy trying to gin up these ways of framing Duterte.

World champion boxer and Congressman Manny Pacquiao on the other hand stated that homosexuals were lower than animals. He has taken a tremendous amount of heat for that, but remember Filipino society is conservative that way compared to western countries. They are either Catholic or Muslim.

Pacquiao was a wild child that was somewhat recently "born again", as much as a Catholic can be anyway so he has made clumsy pronouncements like that as a consequence. It has hurt him politically, although he is still a national hero.

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Reading the comment sections in domestic Filipino media tells you a lot about how people feel, and this recent bust is revealing:

http://entertainment.inquirer.net/199276/radio-dj-karen-bordador-boyfriend-fall-in-drug-bust

That's beautiful, sexy, FM radio host celebrity Karen Bordador, going down in a buy-bust operation involving 2.5 million peso street value Ecstasy, and some marijuana.

This kind of thing is potentially a death penalty case. Philipines got rid of the death penalty temporarily in 1987, but congress can bring it back any time and this is a time there is sympathy for it.

Karen was a television celebrity, a reality show says my wife, I don't pay attention to television in either country. It's like people calling for the execution of Jennifer Lopez or something. She would, in fact, face execution in every other SE Asian country except the Philippines, for now.

The Filipino people are saying everyone was warned. Duterte is going to kill you. Execute her. They can't, but this is the sentiment behind Duterte getting elected in the first place.

Imagine this pampered sex symbol and celebrity in an overcrowded third world prison. For the rest of her life.

So this is what the Duterte forces are doing: huge increase in buy-bust operations. If you resist arrest, they kill you.

edit: for some reason I am not seeing that source in my post. So google "radio DJ Karen Bordador Bust".
 
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Hey, thanks for that because we're following domestic Filipino sources and social media, but good to check in on some mainstream media like abc.

The page itself is a "political problems Duterte faces" series, so please read them all. Starts with drug war of course, how we should all know how horrible that is - but Duterte faces a whole lot more he is wrecking. Hard to believe he is the head of these dirty little monkeys, ie my family. Neighbors. Friends. Mistresses, lol.

Surprise, surprise. What are the odds that Duterte follows his heroes lead and declares himself dictator.

His hero is Yew in Singapore, and I really hope and pray he does suspend the constitution if this current group working on the federalist system can't get the job done.

The constitution is an embarrassment, contradicting itself in numerous ways. For example, Duterte has more than one wife, as it is understood in his region. You can call them mistresses, but wives insofar as Moro culture is concerned. They are allowed this and can formally marry multiple wives, no problem. A christian on the other hand can be jailed.

It reads like a group of Freshman social justice class students wrote it on a week-end retreat. It is 70% preamble, by the standards of our own constitution with lofty crap about supporting the family, women, children, religions, everything they could think to mention, and establishing impossible timelines for treaties with the Cordilleras, the Visayas, etc.... establishing fiscally impossible levels of funding for a lot, especially educatiion:

The constitution flatly prohibits a single peso to ever be extracted from a student for education, K-12. But most of the population drops out because they can't afford to pay school fees. Every. Single. Student. Pays. How is this possible? They just ignore the law because it is impractical. Nobody will teach if you don't charge fees. They are among the lowest paid work force at that.

There is so much wrong with this constitution, the lack of Federalism at the base of it, that it is unworkable. Philippines has been running outside its latest constitution since the day it was passed.

By being hopelessly unworkable, impractical, without structure and instead vague platitudes, the government just does what it can get away with, which is to plant bullets in international travelers' bags and extort money out of them. Selling drugs. Extorting businesses and farms. Shooting journalists who report it.

Everyone speaking out against Duterte - where were they when people like the Estradas in Leyte had an armed private force of 50-100 take on Duterte's people at their drug factory? Where were they in protesting the human rights abuses of this Mayor and the dozens of others so far named?

They were afraid to speak. They'd be killed. People can speak out against Duterte and he isn't going to silence them.

Any voices of protests, small as they are, demonstrate Duterte is no Marcos. Marcos brought police state violence down on political opposition. Duterte lets them assemble, protest, and for the press to cover it without censorship.

The ladies are telling us "who gives a ****" when we ask them. The men, that goes without saying Regarding Marcos' burial. The people who are upset - we sure understand, and celebrate your right to protest. Now, to the next round of Duterte's "corrupt politician" list. He says another one is coming.
 
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Maybe some of the Philippines experts can tell us about the Oslo peace talks with the Communist Party of the Philippines.

After all, the massive amnesty and release of prisoners Duterte is apparently following through with - that's what a Stalin does, right? Free armed revolutionaries who have killed a lot of people:

http://www.thelocal.no/20160815/philippine-rebels-optimistic-ahead-of-norway-talks

He is not only releasing all these major NPA figures, but designating them as consultants and paying their way to the Oslo peace talks.

This article covered that little misunderstanding with Duterte first issuing a unilateral cease fire and having his soldiers shot returning to base. Both sides are really optimistic on settlement.
 
Sound like Duterte could make a splash by updating the constitution.

And multiple wives? He's Muslim then? I had no idea.
 
Sound like Duterte could make a splash by updating the constitution.

Exactly.

And multiple wives? He's Muslim then? I had no idea.

He was nominally a Catholic as a child but doesn't attend church. He believes in God, but not in church, so he says. You can find Youtube videos of him saying "Allahu Ahkbar" to Muslim audiences. Sympathetic but not devout on either.

I've been following him for 9 years and my family for decades. He is quarter Moro by blood. They're Muslim. He is in a Muslim region. Culture at large is sympathetic to multiple wives, in their sense of the term. Often mistresses are introduced as "wife" and what we would even consider girlfriend is introduced as "wife". I have two wives when staying there. Everyone knows everyone else. It isn't something you hide.

Look at US presidents - a lot of them have mistresses. Clinton, boy what a hound dog, lol.

But there isn't any reason for a guy from Mindanao to lie to the press about it. He doesn't need to hide it.
 
That's beautiful, sexy, FM radio host celebrity Karen Bordador, going down
... sadly, for some folks that's as far as they'd get into your post before they had to mutter something like "I'll be in my bunk" and miss the rest of your post, which is the politics of celebrities getting arrested in a big and public way.
Execute her. They can't, but this is the sentiment behind Duterte getting elected in the first place.
She's better looking than Carla Fay Tucker ... maybe that will help her.

Imagine this pampered sex symbol and celebrity in an overcrowded third world prison. For the rest of her life.
There go a few more people, off to their bunks ...

So google "radio DJ Karen Bordador Bust".
Quite a few will do that with no reference to anything to do with an arrest.

It will be interesting to check in every now and again and see if the Pope tries to convince the Philippine government to not put her to death (if she gets tried and sentenced to same, though as you say it's unlikely) as his predecessor JP II did for Tucker ...
 
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Nothing killed tourism in Thailand, it is at an all-time high:

Deeply buried in that article :

he gradual return of the Russians is surely not to be underestimated either. Pattaya and its tourism landscape have been shaken up considerably in recent years, and while the numbers of traditional Farang visitors aren’t actually dwindling they’re obviously becoming a minority in the urban landscape of Pattaya. Granted, the Chinese tour groups are apparently also spending a few Baht. Then again, that’s not the Pattaya “we” used to know.
Pattaya was built on its nightlife and adult entertainment industry. Pattaya used to be bars and girls, and the beaches, markets and tourist attractions were just there to keep you entertained during the day. Now Walking Street has deteriorated to some kind of night-time tourist attraction for hordes of Asian tour groups chasing after an umbrella. Many of the traditional beer bars that would typically cater to Western males are empty these days or half-empty at best. The girls are bored. The atmosphere is gone. Bar owners are struggling to make a living, and it doesn’t need a Nostradamus to predict that over the course of the upcoming low season many bars will be forced to shut up shop.

Emphasis mine.

Which is exactly what foolmewunz was saying. And indeed tourist number do not matter. Tourist spending does.

If you go from 250 million tourist per year to 300 million but they spend half what they previously spent, this is a net loss.

That is why tourist number is an utterly useless numbers to cite.
 
...
http://entertainment.inquirer.net/199276/radio-dj-karen-bordador-boyfriend-fall-in-drug-bust
...
edit: for some reason I am not seeing that source in my post. So google "radio DJ Karen Bordador Bust".

URL is there, but text which would be visible is missing.
Fixed:

[URL="http://entertainment.inquirer.net/199276/radio-dj-karen-bordador-boyfriend-fall-in-drug-bust"]Radio DJ Karen Bordador, boyfriend fall in drug bust[/URL]
Radio DJ Karen Bordador, boyfriend fall in drug bust
 
When two United Nations human rights experts criticized the extra-judicial killings committed under the Philippines' anti-drug campaign, its president responded with a threat.

"Maybe we'll just have to decide to separate from the United Nations," Rodrigo Duterte said over a two-hour-long speech on Sunday.
Interesting response.

Curious: what has the UN ever done for the Philippines? Have there not been a few disasters where some UN folks showed up to help?
 
Interesting response.

Curious: what has the UN ever done for the Philippines? Have there not been a few disasters where some UN folks showed up to help?

Most recently Typhoon Haiyan, and I think you'll find the UN sent rather a lot of aid. I'm not sure what Phils' contribution to the UN is, but I'd bet on "not much".

Old Duterte Harry certainly has an answer for everything.
 
He plays to the home crowd. Reminds me a bit of that "AchMyDinnerJacket" guy in Iran a few years ago.

Also, of course, a certain yellow-haired, orange-skinned humanoid not far from you. Trouble is, it doesn't speak all that well of the crowd.
 
I just got back from a trip to Manila.

Everyone I spoke to regarding it a) Voted for him, b) Were pretty happy about the way things were going, because he was doing exactly what he said he was going to do, shaking things up to break an unending cycle of poverty, drugs and corruption.

Back in July he had 91% approval rating, apparently that has now gone up to 98%, according to locals.

Front page of the paper was the head of the transport authority announcing a zero tolerance approach to corruption. Any infraction and they would lose their jobs.

The investigated extra judicial killings are also on the front page, and all over the TV, with the head of police being grilled by a commission. So these things are not being ignored or treated lightly.

His policies so far have the approval of his country.
 
That's the point of the thread - we won't know for sure without a few years' hindsight.

My gut instinct says the end point is unlikely to be anywhere good, but that's only based on all the previous examples of popular demagogues so far.

Quite possible there will be an exception sometime.
 
According to that site and a few others something like 600,000 guys have turned themselves in rather than face execution. That's got to be a logistical nightmare for the jail system. I'd have to imagine that the drop in street-level drug activity must be substantial, though.
Apparently, the government is providing rehabilitation services to addicts who surrender:
http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2016/08/12/DOH-ramps-up-drug-rehab-program.html1
 
Isn't he limited to just one six-year term? Maybe he could travel around to other countries as a consultant. I could see other people wanting to imitate his approach if it's successful.
 
Isn't he limited to just one six-year term? Maybe he could travel around to other countries as a consultant. I could see other people wanting to imitate his approach if it's successful.

Well, scratch us off the list. We tried it here and we've got the results the Philippines are likely to have. So far, the patterns are the same.

The below relates to the current state of affairs in the Philippines, but is just about an exact replication of incidents here when Thaksin tried the same thing under pressure from the palace.

> People turn themselves in, hundreds of thousands of them, and while many are just users and not addicts, they take up all the available space in the health centers first, then get moved over to "New Improved Health Centers" that are really detention centers.
> "Turn yourself in to avoid arrest/prosecution or just summary execution". Great advice. Then the police hand out the lists of people who turned themselves in as users to avail themselves of the seeming amnesty, and vigilantes hunt them down and kill them.
> It's not just the vigilantes are trying to rid the streets of dealers/users. There are those out there who are also eliminating competition. Recently, a five year old girl in Manila was killed by people targeting her grandfather. Her grandfather was in the a.m. category - turned himself in as a user. Of course, dealers will claim to be users - - I know I would if I had a possible life-saving way out - - but we don't know that grampa was a dealer; the competition assumed he was, evidently.
 
Recently, a five year old girl in Manila was killed by people targeting her grandfather. Her grandfather was in the a.m. category - turned himself in as a user. Of course, dealers will claim to be users - - I know I would if I had a possible life-saving way out - - but we don't know that grampa was a dealer; the competition assumed he was, evidently.

That's the case I linked to.

According to the story, the grandfather only turned himself in because he'd been accused of being a dealer, so was trying to keep himself safe.

Didn't work.
 
Deeply troubling case in any event and, if the family's account is accurate, illustrates an inherent problem with extra-judicial killings. Even if they get the right guy most of the time, stuff like this can still happen. No idea how commonplace it is in the current Philippines crackdown, though.
 

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