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NZ Politics, the Luxon Era

The Atheist

The Grammar Tyrant
The Atheist
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Jul 3, 2006
Messages
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NZ has a new Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon.

A very conservative evangelical, he has taken great pains to paint himself as a man of all people, so I await his actual policies with interest.
 
The Atheist said:
NZ has a new Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon.

A very conservative evangelical, he has taken great pains to paint himself as a man of all people, so I await his actual policies with interest.
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It appears that the final results are as follows:
Code: 
National Party   878,288   38.95   45    5   50
Labour Party     606,663   26.90   17   17   34
Green Party      242,845   10.77    3   11   14
ACT New Zealand  202,664    8.98    2    9   11
New Zealand F..  145,649    6.46    -    8    8
Te Pāti Māori     58,949    2.61    4    -    4
https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/

Even with the support of NZ first, Luxon only has 58 out of 121 seats. Where will his other support come from? These other parties don't appear to be all that conservative.
 
psionl0 said:
It appears that the final results are as follows:
Code: 
National Party   878,288   38.95   45    5   50
Labour Party     606,663   26.90   17   17   34
Green Party      242,845   10.77    3   11   14
ACT New Zealand  202,664    8.98    2    9   11
New Zealand F..  145,649    6.46    -    8    8
Te Pāti Māori     58,949    2.61    4    -    4
https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/

Even with the support of NZ first, Luxon only has 58 out of 121 seats. Where will his other support come from? These other parties don't appear to be all that conservative.
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11 seats from ACT make up the numbers.
NZF will be needed as special votes are fewer for national, their people are stable and tend to be on the role.
 
Samson said:
11 seats from ACT make up the numbers.
NZF will be needed as special votes are fewer for national, their people are stable and tend to be on the role.
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Does Luxon intend to form a coalition with ACT or just run a minority government with the support of ACT/NZF?
 
If all those "freedumb" voters who wasted their votes on "New Zealand Loyal", "Freedoms New Zealand" and all the other fringe conspiracy theorist nutjob parties think things will get better now that Labour is out, I'm afraid you're in for a big disappointment. Luxon and his Nats talk a big game, but ultimately they do not give a fat rat's arse about the poor. Expect tax cuts for the rich, and for middle and low income earners to pay for them.

I pity anyone in this country living on the margins - those who can barely survive from payday-to-payday... or struggle to put food in the mouths of their kids. This will include retirees, and those on any kind of benefit.
The outlook for them is pretty grim for at least the next three years.
 
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psionl0 said:
Even with the support of NZ first, Luxon only has 58 out of 121 seats. Where will his other support come from? These other parties don't appear to be all that conservative.
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Being on t'other side of the ditch I'll forgive you not knowing of ACT & National's close relationship that now goes back over 20 years. National has been so far up ACT's backside they gifted them the Epsom electorate for several elections to ensure they got into Parliament. ACT is the furthest right any political party with parliamentary representation has ever been in this country.

As to the results being final, they aren't. There are still 20% of votes to be counted, and for some peculiar reason they're not reported at all until 3 November.
 
smartcooky said:
Luxon and his Nats talk a big game, but ultimately they do not give a fat rat's arse about the poor. Expect tax cuts for the rich, and for middle and low income earners to pay for them.

I pity anyone in this country living on the margins - those who can barely survive from payday-to-payday... or struggle to put food in the mouths of their kids. This will include retirees, and those on any kind of benefit.
The outlook for them is pretty grim for at least the next three years.
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There's going to be some serious humour, though.

I hear the 100-day pledge includes banning gang patches. Lucky he's christian and doesn't listen to science: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politica...ience-advisor-s-report-on-gang-harm-reduction
 
The Atheist said:
Being on t'other side of the ditch I'll forgive you not knowing of ACT & National's close relationship that now goes back over 20 years. National has been so far up ACT's backside they gifted them the Epsom electorate for several elections to ensure they got into Parliament. ACT is the furthest right any political party with parliamentary representation has ever been in this country.
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It's a simple question: a National/ACT coalition or a National minority government with ACT support?

Why won't anybody answer?
 
psionl0 said:
It's a simple question: a National/ACT coalition or a National minority government with ACT support?

Why won't anybody answer?
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The government is National/Act/New Zealand First.
 
One of the talking heads in the election coverage claimed that the apparent shift of a few % from Act to NZF in the last few weeks was due to Seymour saying in an interview that ACT might support National on an issue by issue basis rather than forming a general coalition agreement.

So there does seem some scope for exactly how a coalition would work.
 
I think in most coutries, voters eventually decide that a party has simply been in to long and a change be healthy.
And No party has any right to expect an eternal majority in Parliament.
 
psionl0 said:
It's a simple question: a National/ACT coalition or a National minority government with ACT support?

Why won't anybody answer?
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Mea culpa, I thought what I said was so blindingly obvious it didn't require further detail.

For the record, and for David Seymour's votes, there will be a formal coalition agreement between ACT & National. Details of that are not made public.

If Winston is required, no doubt he'll have a written agreement as well.

As Smartcooky said, it's merely semantics. A formal agreement isn't necessary.
 
smartcooky said:
Because the difference is moot. They are effectively the same thing under NZ Electoral Law.
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Not quite. In a coalition government, some ministers will be from one party and the rest of the ministers from the other party.

If all of the ministers come from just one party then, even if there is a formal agreement, we have a minority government governing with the support of the other party.
 
psionl0 said:
Not quite. In a coalition government, some ministers will be from one party and the rest of the ministers from the other party.
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That will definitely be the case. Seymour is a certainty for Deputy PM, and they will probably get 2 more Cabinet posts and maybe a couple of Ministers outside Cabinet as well. Other than Finance, all positions are yet to be decided.

If they need Winston it will cost them exactly two things - and agreement not to increase the age entitlement for superannuation, and Winston taking back over as Minister for Racing.
 
psionl0 said:
Not quite. In a coalition government, some ministers will be from one party and the rest of the ministers from the other party.

If all of the ministers come from just one party then, even if there is a formal agreement, we have a minority government governing with the support of the other party.
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Its a distinction without a difference for the everyday New Zealander.

Coalition agreement: The leaders of the two coalition parties take the prime minister and deputy roles, and few of the smaller partner's MPs get portfolios in Cabinet

Confidence and Supply agreement: The leaders of the major party get the Prime Minister and deputy roles. No MPs from the minor party get Cabinet positions. One or two might get minor roles as minsters outside of Cabinet for some important issue.

For the average Kiwi, the above is classified under the heading "don't give a fat rat's arse" In both cases, the country is governed by right wing under their philosophy of making the rich richer at the expense of the rest.

Voting-National.png
 
The Atheist said:
That will definitely be the case. Seymour is a certainty for Deputy PM, and they will probably get 2 more Cabinet posts and maybe a couple of Ministers outside Cabinet as well. Other than Finance, all positions are yet to be decided.

If they need Winston it will cost them exactly two things - and agreement not to increase the age entitlement for superannuation, and Winston taking back over as Minister for Racing.
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Now I am caught up.
 
smartcooky said:
Its a distinction without a difference for the everyday New Zealander.

Coalition agreement: The leaders of the two coalition parties take the prime minister and deputy roles, and few of the smaller partner's MPs get portfolios in Cabinet

Confidence and Supply agreement: The leaders of the major party get the Prime Minister and deputy roles. No MPs from the minor party get Cabinet positions. One or two might get minor roles as minsters outside of Cabinet for some important issue.

For the average Kiwi, the above is classified under the heading "don't give a fat rat's arse" In both cases, the country is governed by right wing under their philosophy of making the rich richer at the expense of the rest.

[qimg]https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/vywb12aqi0xze3iqax419/Voting-National.png?rlkey=n15mm5tp2221xoxrjg1bpqe7l&raw=1[/qimg]
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And yet you spent 3 posts refusing to answer the question when you could have achieved the same result with 0 posts. Evidently you DO "give a fat rat's arse".
 
Note that here in sunny South Australia, we had a Minister, from another party, without there being a coalition in place.

Ideally, a cabinet would be staffed by the best people the Prime Minister can find from all the elected members, but in practice, party politics (where parties place themselves above representing the public and doing the best for the country as a whole) prevent this from happening.

Minority governments are interesting, but inherently unstable, so it will be interesting to see how New Zealand goes...
 
novaphile said:
Minority governments are interesting, but inherently unstable, so it will be interesting to see how New Zealand goes...
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Every government since the introduction of MMP in 1993, with the exception of the recently-departed Labour government's second term, has been a minority leadership.

None of them have shown any signs of instability, and I doubt this one will be different.
 
Hmm, might be a very short era for this particular government in waiting.

After special vote counts, National has lost two sets and together with ACT, control 59 seats in the house. Due to Te Paati Maori picking up another seat, Parliament will consist of 122 seats this term, and NZ First has 8, so Luxon & ACT cannot govern without Peters and NZ First.

Today, NZ First isn't picking up ACT leader David Seymour's calls.

Winston and Seymour share a mutual loathing and the thought of the pair of them in caucus together is hilarious. Peters will try to sabotage ACT at every turn, and holds exactly the right cards to temper some of Luxon's more idiotic ideas as well.

It might be an interesting pre-xmas Parliament.
 
The Atheist said:
Hmm, might be a very short era for this particular government in waiting.

After special vote counts, National has lost two sets and together with ACT, control 59 seats in the house. Due to Te Paati Maori picking up another seat, Parliament will consist of 122 seats this term, and NZ First has 8, so Luxon & ACT cannot govern without Peters and NZ First.

Today, NZ First isn't picking up ACT leader David Seymour's calls.

Winston and Seymour share a mutual loathing and the thought of the pair of them in caucus together is hilarious. Peters will try to sabotage ACT at every turn, and holds exactly the right cards to temper some of Luxon's more idiotic ideas as well.

It might be an interesting pre-xmas Parliament.
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I can see a possibility that Winston will stay out of coalition, will agree on matters of confidence & supply only, and vote against every ACT policy initiative.

This would be sure to piss off that little pissant Seymour.
 
smartcooky said:
I can see a possibility that Winston will stay out of coalition, will agree on matters of confidence & supply only, and vote against every ACT policy initiative.

This would be sure to piss off that little pissant Seymour.
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I think the carrot of Deputy PM and/or Foreign affairs will mean a coalition agreement is a certainty. And Winnie has all the cards - Seymour will suck Luxon's whatever he's asked to because they only exist thanks to National, so Winston can draw the line wherever he feels like. He will also know that whoever forced another election would have an enormous backlash, so Luxon is now Winston's pawn.

A mate of mine is Winston's neighbour up north and the laughing hasn't stopped for over 24 hours.
 
The Atheist said:
I think the carrot of Deputy PM and/or Foreign affairs will mean a coalition agreement is a certainty. And Winnie has all the cards - Seymour will suck Luxon's whatever he's asked to because they only exist thanks to National, so Winston can draw the line wherever he feels like. He will also know that whoever forced another election would have an enormous backlash, so Luxon is now Winston's pawn.

A mate of mine is Winston's neighbour up north and the laughing hasn't stopped for over 24 hours.
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Here's the thing though... Winston is now kingmaker. Act and Nazional together only have 59 seats in a 122 seat Parliament. Winston, The Greens TMP and Labour have 63 between them - he could threaten to do a deal, involving all sorts of concessions with any or all of them, resulting in a Labour/NZF led coalition government with the Greens and TPM.

Now sure, its not at all likely to happen, but Winston despises David Seymour enough that he might threaten to do this, if for no other reason than to neuter him. Yes, it might be political suicide, but Peters will be 79 in April next year... do you think he really cares about his longer term political future?
 
I'm sure he doesn't give a damn, but Green and Te Paati Maori have ruled out working with Winston.

Still, it's politics and anything can happen, but I'm sure Luxon will do any deal that gets him the Treasury benches.
 
Samson said:
Chloe Swarbrick calls for the symbolic extermination of Jews in Israel.
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In your world, that's probably how it seems. Thank christ only the far right believes that kind of arrant nonsense.

I'm not Swarbrick fan, but making stuff up is pathetic. Freedom isn't genocide.
 
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