Cont: Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla II

[Darat]

Yes. The Robotaxi has been driving autonomously at the Tesla facility in Austin for over 6 months.
From November of last year.

Dozens more videos of the Robotaxi can be found here. https://www.youtube.com/@JoeTegtmeyer/search?query=robotaxi

Tesla owns all of Austin? That's new one on me.

 

[Bogative]

Tesla owns all of Austin? That's new one on me.

Who said they did?

 

[The Don]

Yes. The Robotaxi has been driving autonomously at the Tesla facility in Austin for over 6 months.
From November of last year.

Dozens more videos of the Robotaxi can be found here. https://www.youtube.com/@JoeTegtmeyer/search?query=robotaxi

That's all very well and good but operating in a closed facility isn't the same as operating " in the wild "

 

[Puppycow]

This post was from June 16, 2024. TSLA closed at $178.01 that day.

TSLA closed at $323.61 last night.

It's lowest closing price so far this year was $214.80 on April 7.

That's some brilliant stock advice right there…

I guess I'm a fool. I could point out that the current valuation puts Tesla at 4.6 times the valuation of Toyota, a company which sells a lot more cars than Tesla, and makes higher profits too. But the share price is what it is. Can't argue with that. I think it's grossly overvalued, but what do I know.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

But the share price is what it is. Can't argue with that. I think it's grossly overvalued, but what do I know.

Exactly!

 

[acbytesla]

I guess I'm a fool. I could point out that the current valuation puts Tesla at 4.6 times the valuation of Toyota, a company which sells a lot more cars than Tesla, and makes higher profits too. But the share price is what it is. Can't argue with that. I think it's grossly overvalued, but what do I know.

Exactly!

Well, bubbles are meant to burst.

 

[Darat]

Who said they did?

You quoted my post when making the post about the "Tesla facility in Austin", my post was about seeing robotaxis on the street, the only way your post and link could be related to my point was if Tesla owned all of Austin and therefore mentioning the Tesla facility is the same as mentioning Austin.

So my point remains.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

In the same way that I don't understand the price of bitcoin, I don't understand the Tesla stock price.

If the trading volume was very low then I'd put it down to a few Musk fanbois doing small trades in a market with very low liquidity (and hence artificially high prices and a big bid/offer spread) but trading volumes are high which means that professional investors and institutions are involved. I suppose that index funds are obliged to hold Tesla but I simply don't understand a well informed professional investor looking at Tesla, its future plans, its current model portfolio and its board and saying "Yes, that's a growth stock if ever I've seen one".

I guess this is one of the many reasons why I rely on professionals to do my investing for me.

Too many big name portfolios drunk the Flavor Aid over Tesla's future profitability before it became obvious that the Galaxy Nazi was a two bit conman. They bet on a pooch and are now in too deep to do anything other than keep going.

Think all the silly money going into web 2.0 companies before the first tech stock crash or WeWork from a few years ago.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

I think two conflicting maxims are in play here:

“The past is prologue.” and “Past performance is no guarantee of future results."

If the past is prologue, Musk has a track record of home runs. Some investors are betting that there’s some “special sauce” that will allow for his venturing into robotics, A.I. and Robotaxi’s to also be home runs. And they may be proven right.

But I sold my TSLA shares on the basis of the latter maxim. I think the competition in each of these fields is formidable, and that Musk may be overreaching. I think relying on “vision only” for autonomous driving and disparaging the need for LIDAR and/or RADAR will potentially cripple reaching true autonomous driving. And there’s a LOT of thrashing around and lack of focus on Tesla’s core business, making and selling cars*. But I still hold that markets are efficient, if not always rational, and that all of these factors result in today’s stock price. In short, it’s where it “should be”, all things considered, and its future value is unknowable.


*An example: The CyberTruck was originally planned to have up to 500 miles of range. It barely has 300 miles, rendering it a poor choice for towing, where range is roughly cut in half. As a band-aid, they took deposits on a $16,000 “Range Extender”, which had to be permanently installed and would eat up about 1/3 of the bed while cutting down on useful load and still didn’t get to the promised 500 mile range. An obviously horrible compromise. And just last week Tesla axed the whole idea. I expect a class action suit from folks who only bought their CyberTrucks based on this expected future product. Buyers of the truck also had “Autopilot” included, but now they’ve been told it will not be forthcoming and they’ll need to purchase “Full Self Driving” just to get auto-steer capability. What a fiasco.

The only company Musk was involved in that was successful was Tesla (I'm discounting PayPal because Thiel realised he was a fraud and removed him from any authority very quickly), and that was solely because of the work of the two actual founders Eberhard and Tarpenning. Musk simply coasted along for a number of years using their bpueprints and strategies before implementing his own whereupon the wheels of the company started grinding to a halt. Every other company he is involved in turned out to be a fraud (Solar City, Boring Company) or welfare queenism (SpaceX).

 

[Bogative]

You quoted my post when making the post about the "Tesla facility in Austin", my post was about seeing robotaxis on the street, the only way your post and link could be related to my point was if Tesla owned all of Austin and therefore mentioning the Tesla facility is the same as mentioning Austin.

So my point remains.

I just checked your post, you mentioned nothing about the street. To prevent further pointless replies about nothing of importance, there are streets that run through the Austin Tesla plant. There have been plenty of Robotaxis seen there by thousands of people. Just because you didn't see them in the press, doesn't mean they don't exist.

 

[a_unique_person]

I just checked your post, you mentioned nothing about the street. To prevent further pointless replies about nothing of importance, there are streets that run through the Austin Tesla plant. There have been plenty of Robotaxis seen there by thousands of people. Just because you didn't see them in the press, doesn't mean they don't exist.

Running around a well defined and limited road network is alpha testing. When new models are released they are regularly spotted on real roads in disguise and they have been certified as required for compliance with local laws.

 

[dirtywick]

imo by the end tesla will be considered a cautionary tale rather than a success

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Well, there is a niche for them, albeit a small one. We’ve seen a half dozen or so on our Florida trip so far. Including a white-wrapped one that I think looks cooly futuristic.

But I’ll grant you that 50k or so sold to date falls far, far short of Musk’s rosy predictions. If they manage to get the bugs worked out, it could be a platform for a 3 row SUV. Something like this artist’s rendition.

Something like that just might really sell.

There's always going to be a small intersection between the "I want to display my national socialist leanings" and the "I accept climate science" groups. Is it enough to save the company? No.

 

[Darat]

First time I've noticed a Tesla bod mention Musk's utopia of robotaxis will increase congestion. But not to worry his Boring company will be able to build tunnels for the robotaxis!

The Boring Company paves the way for Tesla robotaxi future

The Boring Company breakthrough boosts Tesla’s robotaxi dream. Autonomous Cybercabs may soon zip through tunnels, solving gridlock for good.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Darat]

I just checked your post, you mentioned nothing about the street. To prevent further pointless replies about nothing of importance, there are streets that run through the Austin Tesla plant. There have been plenty of Robotaxis seen there by thousands of people. Just because you didn't see them in the press, doesn't mean they don't exist.

Tesla lets people randomly enter and take photos at their Austin facility?

 

[acbytesla]

First time I've noticed a Tesla bod mention Musk's utopia of robotaxis will increase congestion. But not to worry his Boring company will be able to build tunnels for the robotaxis!

The Boring Company paves the way for Tesla robotaxi future

The Boring Company breakthrough boosts Tesla’s robotaxi dream. Autonomous Cybercabs may soon zip through tunnels, solving gridlock for good.

www.teslarati.com

There are so many problems with this idea. To begin with, is the idea that a single company should have a monopoly on transportation services. Which is the utopia that Musk envisions. Seems more dystopian than utopian. It will lead to parking congestion even if it reduces traffic congestion.

 

[Darat]

There are so many problems with this idea. To begin with, is the idea that a single company should have a monopoly on transportation services. Which is the utopia that Musk envisions. Seems more dystopian than utopian. It will lead to parking congestion even if it reduces traffic congestion.

What would probably be better is to put rails in one of those tunnels and have cars drive onto a platform on wheels that ride on the rails and have the whole thing pulled by a single efficient motor, you could call it a wayrail! (I know I'm a genius - you can send the licence payments in whatever crypto currency you want, just ensure that you send them in a solid gold box, to make it easier I'm fine if you want to send the gold as an ingot. That's an old fashioned word, ingot, that I've just invented, not many people know that.)

 

[The Great Zaganza]

all Silicon Valley Schemes are based on achieving a monopoly and raising prices.

 

[Bogative]

Tesla lets people randomly enter and take photos at their Austin facility?

The facility has an eight lane highway running through the middle of it, a few public streets running through the rest of it and then some running around the perimeter of it.
Unless they have added access checkpoints within the last few weeks, you can exit the main highway, take the public street and drive right up to the front door of the factory.
I'm not sure if they are still available, but there was a company offering bus tours around the campus.
The YouTube channel I linked to earlier belongs to a guy who visits Giga Texas regularly and spends hours a day flying his drones around taking video footage of construction, production and whatever he finds interesting. He has dozens of videos of the Cybercab autonomously driving around the campus.

That's the long way of saying, yes, Tesla lets you enter and take photos of the Austin facility.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The facility has an eight lane highway running through the middle of it, a few public streets running through the rest of it and then some running around the perimeter of it.
Unless they have added access checkpoints within the last few weeks, you can exit the main highway, take the public street and drive right up to the front door of the factory.
I'm not sure if they are still available, but there was a company offering bus tours around the campus.
The YouTube channel I linked to earlier belongs to a guy who visits Giga Texas regularly and spends hours a day flying his drones around taking video footage of construction, production and whatever he finds interesting. He has dozens of videos of the Cybercab autonomously driving around the campus.

That's the long way of saying, yes, Tesla lets you enter and take photos of the Austin facility.

and there's no fencing between the plant and the street at all?

 

[Bogative]

and there's no fencing between the plant and the street at all?

No. It's not like they're trying to hide them. They drive them around the Tesla plant in broad daylight during the middle of the workday where there are literally thousands of people who can see them testing.

In the first minute of this video, you can see a Cybercab over the videographer's shoulder as he is shooting an introduction to his video. He was standing on the exit ramp in front of the Tesla plant. The video goes on to show up to 6 separate Cybercabs he captured while flying his drown.

 

[a_unique_person]

It's a well known, confined environment. It's a stupid design for a taxi. Low to the ground, two seats, swing up doors.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

It's a stupid design for a taxi. Low to the ground, two seats, swing up doors.

I tend to agree.

 

[Darat]

It's a well known, confined environment. It's a stupid design for a taxi. Low to the ground, two seats, swing up doors.

Yeah you'd also expect a 2 seater to only need the space of current 2 seater cars like the Smart car with luggage storage, why it is the size it is makes no sense from a cost or functional perspective

 

[a_unique_person]

Yeah you'd also expect a 2 seater to only need the space of current 2 seater cars like the Smart car with luggage storage, why it is the size it is makes no sense from a cost or functional perspective

It looks it is the super cheap Tesla that was never released. In a moment of genius Elon decided to make it the robotaxi. As a super cheap Tesla I could buy something like that if it has some storage space.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

An interesting article, seems Tesla bought out lease contracts to allegedly free up stock for their robotaxi fleet, but ended up selling them on the second hand market. It also goes into how far Tesla are away from having a vehicle that would be compliant wit current self-driving taxi regulations.

Elon Musk’s Robotaxi Fantasy Unravels As Tesla Dumps Recalled Cars

Documents prove Tesla’s 'robotaxi recall' was a smokescreen: Leased vehicles were auctioned off, not converted. Was this a liquidity move, a regulatory dodge, or proof its self-driving tech isn’t ready?

www.carsandhorsepower.com

 

[Fast Eddie B]

As a super cheap Tesla I could buy something like that if it has some storage space.

Even if not exceptionally cheap, it could fill that small niche held by the Miata and, previously, the Honda S2000. Sporty, but reasonably functional as in in-town runabout as well.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

It's a well known, confined environment. It's a stupid design for a taxi. Low to the ground, two seats, swing up doors.

So you know more about motor vehicle design than Franz von Holzhausen? I think not. Taxis drive on city streets and highways, not off-road where high ground clearance is needed. With no driver, two passenger seats covers 99% of taxi rides. Need more? Hire two taxis! It will be cheaper than one Waymo. Swing up doors allow operation in tight spaces, are easier to get in and out of, and safer for cyclists and pedestrians. You think they chose them just for fun? Wish I had them on my Leaf today at the supermarket, as I struggled to get out without banging the door into the car beside me.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Cheaper how?
Two cars cost more, use more energy, take up more space, cause more traffic, cause more wear on the infrastructure.

The whole thing is a big psyop against public transportation, which is superior to self driving taxis in every way

 

[Roger Ramjets]

There are so many problems with this idea. To begin with, is the idea that a single company should have a monopoly on transportation services. Which is the utopia that Musk envisions. Seems more dystopian than utopian. It will lead to parking congestion even if it reduces traffic congestion.

Evidence?

Today there is only one autonomous taxi company in operation in the US, Waymo - owned by Google. They have been going for 10 years, and since Cruise dropped out they now have a monopoly. They are currently fitting thousands of Jaguar iPaces with their sensors, and have just partnered with Toyota to mass produce robotaxis. If there was a single company you should be worried about having a monoply it's Google, not Tesla.

I don't understand why you think 3D roadways will lead to parking congestion. In fact autonomous taxis greatly reduce parking congestion because they are on the move most of the time, unlike private motor vehicles which tend to stay parked all day while their owners are at work.

It's hard to see how big city parking congestion could get worse than it is now. I worked in Auckland and Wellington (New Zealand) back in the 80's and it was diabolical even back then. The last time I went to Auckland in 2018 we parked the car in a parking building and left it there for three days, while we walked to the convention center and around the city. A Cybercab would have been back out on the road in a few minutes to pick up other passengers.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

all self-driving taxi business models are predicated on them being a monopoly, eventually, in their location - either actually or by collusion with each other.
If there is one thing investors hate, it's competitors having a chance to break into the market they have captured. They want a cash-cow that lasts.

Which is how the whole gig-taxi economy started: companies being jealous of taxi driver monopolies.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Cheaper how?
Two cars cost more, use more energy, take up more space, cause more traffic, cause more wear on the infrastructure.

And are only needed 1% of the time. The Cybercab is small and lightweight so it has less impact on 'infrastructure' than typical cars, and it's very efficient too.

The whole thing is a big psyop against public transportation, which is superior to self driving taxis in every way

Public transport superior in every way? My small city is proud of their bus service which connects to the next city 20 km (12 miles) away where many people work. So the other day I was walking into town to get a haircut (only 2.5 km away, so why take the car when it's a nice day?) when I saw two buses go by. One had 1 passenger and other had 3, as they roared along belching out diesel fumes. This is by no means an uncommon sight.

Trouble is they have a timetable to keep and people would rightly get upset if they delayed or cancelled runs because there weren't enough passengers. Even then the times don't suit a lot of people, including my brother when he worked in the other city. Meanwile the highway is clogged up with angry drivers trying to get to and from work every day. My brother used to leave home an hour earlier just to avoid the traffic.

Your assertion that autonomous taxis are a psyop is ridiculous. They are a service that people can use if they want or not if they don't. Most don't. Tesla hopes to offer that service cheaper, which means more people might be attracted to it - or not if they don't want it. Nobody is being influenced to use a robotaxi any more than any other product or service in our consumer society. Probably a lot less actually. Tesla famously doesn't promote their products with high-pressure advertising like most others do.

You could say that Musk's antics are a kind of advertising, in the 'all publicity is good publicity' vein. Question is will his 'utopian vision' attract more or repel more? I suppose it depends on the ratio of embracers of new technologies to Luddites and partisans.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Cheaper how?

Sorry I didn't fully answer this question. According to estimates, Tesla's Cybercab will cost less than half per ride than Waymo, which are probably barely breaking even if not making a loss. That means you dould hire two Cybercabs for the price of one Waymo. Whether this turns out to be the case we will have to wait and see. My bet is that Tesla will charge more because they can, while Wymo will drop their prices to match even though they will lose (even more) money. That's what Ford did with the F-150 Lightning, losing over $30,000 on every truck they sold to get the price below Tesla.

"Oh no," you say "that would be anticompetitive, delberately running at a loss to kill the competition. No way would Google do that!". We shall see...

 

[The Don]

And are only needed 1% of the time. The Cybercab is small and lightweight so it has less impact on 'infrastructure' than typical cars, and it's very efficient too.


Public transport superior in every way? My small city is proud of their bus service which connects to the next city 20 km (12 miles) away where many people work. So the other day I was walking into town to get a haircut (only 2.5 km away, so why take the car when it's a nice day?) when I saw two buses go by. One had 1 passenger and other had 3, as they roared along belching out diesel fumes. This is by no means an uncommon sight.

Trouble is they have a timetable to keep and people would rightly get upset if they delayed or cancelled runs because there weren't enough passengers. Even then the times don't suit a lot of people, including my brother when he worked in the other city. Meanwile the highway is clogged up with angry drivers trying to get to and from work every day. My brother used to leave home an hour earlier just to avoid the traffic.

Your assertion that autonomous taxis are a psyop is ridiculous. They are a service that people can use if they want or not if they don't. Most don't. Tesla hopes to offer that service cheaper, which means more people might be attracted to it - or not if they don't want it. Nobody is being influenced to use a robotaxi any more than any other product or service in our consumer society. Probably a lot less actually. Tesla famously doesn't promote their products with high-pressure advertising like most others do.

You could say that Musk's antics are a kind of advertising, in the 'all publicity is good publicity' vein. Question is will his 'utopian vision' attract more or repel more? I suppose it depends on the ratio of embracers of new technologies to Luddites and partisans.

Yes, bad public transport is bad.

Mrs Don and I were in Frankfurt in January and experienced excellent public transport, efficient, inexpensive, quick.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Sorry I didn't fully answer this question. According to estimates, Tesla's Cybercab will cost less than half per ride than Waymo, which are probably barely breaking even if not making a loss. That means you dould hire two Cybercabs for the price of one Waymo. Whether this turns out to be the case we will have to wait and see. My bet is that Tesla will charge more because they can, while Wymo will drop their prices to match even though they will lose (even more) money. That's what Ford did with the F-150 Lightning, losing over $30,000 on every truck they sold to get the price below Tesla.

"Oh no," you say "that would be anticompetitive, delberately running at a loss to kill the competition. No way would Google do that!". We shall see...

again, you are just regurgitating the PR line, as well as establishing the "There can be only One" business model as some norm to aspire to.
Musk has NEVER delivered anything on time and at the predicted cost.
Obviously, the cost will depend entirely on how widespread it will be adopted, which depends on how well it actually does and how much Musk can fend off efforts of properly fund Public Transport.

Untold hundreds of billions have been poured into self-driving cars. Where could we be with Public Transport if that had been the focus of investment?

 

[a_unique_person]

Sorry I didn't fully answer this question. According to estimates, Tesla's Cybercab will cost less than half per ride than Waymo, which are probably barely breaking even if not making a loss. That means you dould hire two Cybercabs for the price of one Waymo. Whether this turns out to be the case we will have to wait and see. My bet is that Tesla will charge more because they can, while Wymo will drop their prices to match even though they will lose (even more) money. That's what Ford did with the F-150 Lightning, losing over $30,000 on every truck they sold to get the price below Tesla.

"Oh no," you say "that would be anticompetitive, delberately running at a loss to kill the competition. No way would Google do that!". We shall see...

If you believe that I've got a Cybertruck to sell you.

 

[The Don]

I'm not sure that I really understand the use case for robotaxis, at least in a European context.

Even in the UK, large urban centres have adequate public transport. Most people still have a car and while taxis are popular at certain times of the day/week, they're not a customary form of transport for most people most of the time. A million years ago when I lived in London I didn't have a car, didn't have a real need for one and had nowhere to keep it, I used public transport almost all the time and rented a car once or twice a year when I needed one.

Rurally, taxi transport is ruinously expensive if the intent is to use it on an regular basis, people will retain their private vehicles and/or take the existing inadequate public transport. If I wanted to get from our village to either of the local towns, it'd be a £20-£40 round trip in a taxi. On the bus it's under £5 (and it'll be free for me in a couple of years when I get my bus pass).

Hundreds or thousands of robotaxis milling around touting for business doesn't sound like it would be good for the urban environment and I doubt whether there will be a huge jump in demand for taxi transport unless public transport is degraded.

 

[dirtywick]

Sorry I didn't fully answer this question. According to estimates, Tesla's Cybercab will cost less than half per ride than Waymo, which are probably barely breaking even if not making a loss. That means you dould hire two Cybercabs for the price of one Waymo. Whether this turns out to be the case we will have to wait and see. My bet is that Tesla will charge more because they can, while Wymo will drop their prices to match even though they will lose (even more) money. That's what Ford did with the F-150 Lightning, losing over $30,000 on every truck they sold to get the price below Tesla.

"Oh no," you say "that would be anticompetitive, delberately running at a loss to kill the competition. No way would Google do that!". We shall see...

according to what estimates?

edit

i'm going to hope it's not elon musk just saying it and there's some kind of actual estimate.

 

[a_unique_person]

according to what estimates?

edit

i'm going to hope it's not elon musk just saying it and there's some kind of actual estimate.

I think it's Musk Promises all the way down.

 

[dirtywick]

i'd be curious to see it. regardless i think that the robotaxi operates at a loss, something like this isn't profitable day one, if ever.

personally i'm more concerned somebody is going to be killed. tesla stubbornly sticks with it's camera system that doesn't work, despite a decade of promising fsd it's clearly not ready and already killed a few people. they'll do 10-20 cars in austin with full remote supervision, maybe even a driver, we'll see. but they'll have to scale up eventually to make money, and fsd doesn't work, period.

you know the difference between google and tesla today is google makes a lot of money, they can afford to do this right. tesla is bleeding right now