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Is the challenge dead?

illuminatedwax

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I had heard that the JREF cancelled the Million Dollar prize in 2010, but upon researching it today, it was announced at TAM that it would in fact continue. And I also heard that it's even easier to apply now. However, it looks like the forum here at least is dead (not to mention that some of the site is a couple years or more out of date) ...is there a new log of applicants someplace? Is there another place that volunteers can sign up to help with it? Or is it all being done secretly behind closed doors at the JREF?
 
Well, there was a test at this year's TAM, but you are right, this subforum is pretty quiet. Some threads have started here and then they get moved to the General Skepticism subforum when it becomes clear that the claimant is not really applying for the MDC.

Although it was announced that it would become easier to apply for the prize, I've seen no real movement in that direction. Perhaps someone else has.

Meanwhile, the MDC is no longer the biggest prize available. The Belgian Skeptics are offering a million Euro prize: http://skepp.be/en/sisyphus-prize-1000000-euro

Oh, and I think all the negotiations with the applicant from TAM were done behinde closed doors (which is also true of the previous tests [or demonstrations] at previous TAMs).

Ward
 
Thanks for the info! I think what made the challenge "easier" to apply for was that a YouTube video demonstrating your claim would suffice for an application. It's a shame that a log of these things isn't kept anymore; it was great fun to watch and/or help devise scientifically acceptable experiments for these claims, as well as a good thought exercise for doing science itself.

Do you know if the Belgian Skeptics are transparent about their applicants and the subsequent tests (if any)?
 
I don't know how the Belgian test works. It was just elevated to a million Euros in February.

Where do you live? There might be a local group that offers a prize and you could get hands-on experience rather than just watching from a distance from this forum.

Ward
 
I'm on the same page as you, Illuminated; the thing that first brought me to the site was the challenge applications. Sadly, though, Ward's right about the typical arc of most "applications": The applicant jumps into the forum and says he has some kind of skill that's going to demonstrate soon, and that he's in negotiations to set up a test. Everyone's nice to him and asks him polite questions about his skill, which sounds very specific at first, but as the questions continue becomes more and more murky. Negotiations either continue or don't (because JREF doesn't post the discussions anymore) for awhile, and no one really knows what's going on. This continues for maybe a year or so, and then things just kind of peter out.

I thought it was a mistake when the JREF instituted their new rules for applicants (media presence, etc.), because it just makes it tougher to apply, and the more applicants and tests being run, the better the purpose of the prize is being served. It's sweet, though, to see that there's now another huge prize out there, because it makes it tougher for the many high-profile fakes like Uri Geller and Sylvia Browne to use the old "There is no Million Dollar" excuse. They'll still never sit still for a real test, but the more such prizes there are out there the harder it becomes for them to deny reality.
 
Klaymore said:
.......

I thought it was a mistake when the JREF instituted their new rules for applicants (media presence, etc.), because it just makes it tougher to apply, and the more applicants and tests being run, the better the purpose of the prize is being served.
...
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Why would the media presence be an impediment to an applicant? Of course opponents of the MDC will claim this, but if someone has an interesting supernatural ability, some newspaper or magazine somewhere would surely find this noteworthy enough to write something about them, or they could at least have a YouTube video posted.

The problem in opening the MDC up to everyone who believes they are special arises when a series of mentally ill people pester the JREF staff for attention with claims and questions but never seem to be able to actually fill out an application or settle on one claim. It is not only a waste of the staff's time, but it is also potentially dangerously encouraging or enabling a person suffering with loss of contact with reality or obsessive compulsive types.
 
I don't think the challenge is "dead," but by all appearances it's not a priority for the JREF at the moment, and they're letting the IIG challenge function as a de facto "first round" of testing.

This way, by the time the challenge gets to the JREF, the mentally ill, the jokesters, and the honestly self-deluded have been weeded out. The JREF doesn't wind up spending its time hooking up a webcam aimed at Jeff Wagg's crotch because some poor woman in Cleveland honestly believed she could make him pee by praying for it*. Tests like that have their place, but I can see the wisdom in letting local/regional volunteers handle it, rather than an organization with a staff that can be counted on one hand.


* This really happened.
 
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As likely as those rioting garment working in Bangladesh getting their wages doubled. Obviously its possible, but the powers that be won't allow it.

As likely as those striking fast food workers in 7 US cities getting their wages doubled. Its possible, but the powers that be wont allow it.

As likely as me walking away with money from a blackjack table. Its possible but the powers that be wont allow it.
 
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MNBrant said:
As likely as those rioting garment working in Bangladesh getting their wages doubled. Obviously its possible, but the powers that be won't allow it.
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What powers that be will not allow a successful spoon bender to walk away with the money?
 
Cleon said:
I don't think the challenge is "dead," but by all appearances it's not a priority for the JREF at the moment, and they're letting the IIG challenge function as a de facto "first round" of testing.

This way, by the time the challenge gets to the JREF, the mentally ill, the jokesters, and the honestly self-deluded have been weeded out. The JREF doesn't wind up spending its time hooking up a webcam aimed at Jeff Wagg's crotch because some poor woman in Cleveland honestly believed she could make him pee by praying for it*. Tests like that have their place, but I can see the wisdom in letting local/regional volunteers handle it, rather than an organization with a staff that can be counted on one hand.


* This really happened.
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Hey man, she actually had media presence. She would fit the qualifications even now.
 
RemieV said:
Hey man, she actually had media presence. She would fit the qualifications even now.
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Really? I'd have to say that that pretty much kills any claims anyone might want to make that the current requirements are too high of a bar! :D
 
xtifr said:
Really? I'd have to say that that pretty much kills any claims anyone might want to make that the current requirements are too high of a bar! :D
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Yes. When she first applied, she didn't have media presence, and my advice to her was to showcase her ability for someone in the media. She got an article written about her in a newspaper because of that, leading us to question whether we should suggest getting media coverage to anyone at all...
 
Olowkow said:
Why would the media presence be an impediment to an applicant?
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I don't know how much of an impediment it is, but it's clearly an impediment, and I presume specifically designed as such. If JREF is receiving so many applications that they can't keep up, then perhaps such an impediment is warranted. This doesn't seem to be the case, given that the last challenge application is from 2009.

The problem in opening the MDC up to everyone who believes they are special arises when a series of mentally ill people pester the JREF staff for attention with claims and questions but never seem to be able to actually fill out an application or settle on one claim.
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Indeed, and that's a factor with which I sympathize. I've often commented on the regular approach pattern for new claimants: They come on the site acting all sweet-as-pie, going "Hey, I have this amazing ability and I'm going to apply for the challenge and can you guys help me devise a test?" Then they BS around for about a year or so, then they disappear.

However, once again it goes back to the nature and purpose of the JREF challenge. My understanding isn't that Randi is attempting to discover supernatural phenomena, but rather to run tests of various paranormal claims under controlled circumstances that will illustrate to rational observers the frivolity of said claims.

Anyone who claims paranormal powers is--upon information and belief--either delusional, a cynical fraud, or some combination thereof. The frauds--Sylvia Browne, Uri Geller, et al--are the ones most likely to have a "media presence," and at the same time the least likely to sit still for the challenge. They know that they would fail a controlled test, and are able to make millions without submitting to one. That just leaves the nut-jobs. If JREF is going to test people, those people are going to be deluded. If testing the deluded is unethical, then the JREF should cease and desist entirely. The current policy seems damned by half-measures.
 
And thanks, Cleon, for posting the IIG link. I hadn't heard of that group before, and it appears that they actually run a couple of tests a year (although there are none yet posted for 2013). And yeah, it looks like it's a years-long grind in most cases for them too, with failed claimants often citing some form of "psychic interference" or "negative skeptic energy," just like those the JREF used to test.
 
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Klaymore said:
If testing the deluded is unethical
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Unethical? Who says it's unethical? It's a giant waste of everyone's time, and utterly pointless, but I don't see anything unethical about it. Heck, it's potentially a valuable learning experience for at least some of the deluded. But there are dozens of smaller challenges that can (and do) fill in the gap there.
 
Klaymore said:
This doesn't seem to be the case, given that the last challenge application is from 2009.
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No, the JREF has stopped publishing the claims and the tests. Tests have been conducted every year, and at the latest TAMs some tests have been conducted in public.
 
I miss the days when Kramer was in charge. The Challenge was alive and well back then, and provided much entertainment.

IXP
 
The challange

IXP said:
I miss the days when Kramer was in charge. The Challenge was alive and well back then, and provided much entertainment.

IXP
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I want to take the test, filled out the application form months but have not heard back.
I am claiming that dreams are telepathy in the sleeping state, and both dreams and telepathy tend to symbolize, thus need to be interpreted. I am also claiming that there is a threshold of intensity below which you don't get it, somewhat akin to light or sound intensity.
Here we have three parameters: the sending intensity, the receiver's ability to recall the dream in detail, and of course interpretation. Here I might add that the sender may have some other influences acting on his/her brain, such as an unusual location, some personal issues, toothache, divorce etc..
If I recall correctly, I read about a 70-75% success rate of these tests, which in my opinion is sucess, considering the above factors.
If I would take test, I would want to be asleep at home and could not care less where the sender is located. I would want to be sleep, and I would want to submit my own dream interpretation by any means specified by you.
Yours truly
Kathie Bondar
borealis@airpost.net
 
Kathie Bondar said:
I am claiming that dreams are telepathy in the sleeping state
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What test protocol did you use to convince yourself of this claim?

How did you establish the chance accuracy rate, what was your success criteria, and by how much did your actual accuracy exceed it?
 
Kathie Bondar said:
I want to take the test, filled out the application form months but have not heard back.
I am claiming that dreams are telepathy in the sleeping state, and both dreams and telepathy tend to symbolize, thus need to be interpreted. I am also claiming that there is a threshold of intensity below which you don't get it, somewhat akin to light or sound intensity.
Here we have three parameters: the sending intensity, the receiver's ability to recall the dream in detail, and of course interpretation. Here I might add that the sender may have some other influences acting on his/her brain, such as an unusual location, some personal issues, toothache, divorce etc..
If I recall correctly, I read about a 70-75% success rate of these tests, which in my opinion is sucess, considering the above factors.
If I would take test, I would want to be asleep at home and could not care less where the sender is located. I would want to be sleep, and I would want to submit my own dream interpretation by any means specified by you.
Yours truly
Kathie Bondar
borealis@airpost.net
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If you dream that somebody is Jesus's astral twin, how would you verify success?

For those who haven't met Kathie yet:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=265328
 
Kathie Bondar said:
I want to take the test, filled out the application form months but have not heard back.
I am claiming that dreams are telepathy in the sleeping state, and both dreams and telepathy tend to symbolize, thus need to be interpreted. I am also claiming that there is a threshold of intensity below which you don't get it, somewhat akin to light or sound intensity.
Here we have three parameters: the sending intensity, the receiver's ability to recall the dream in detail, and of course interpretation. Here I might add that the sender may have some other influences acting on his/her brain, such as an unusual location, some personal issues, toothache, divorce etc..
If I recall correctly, I read about a 70-75% success rate of these tests, which in my opinion is sucess, considering the above factors.
If I would take test, I would want to be asleep at home and could not care less where the sender is located. I would want to be sleep, and I would want to submit my own dream interpretation by any means specified by you.
Yours truly
Kathie Bondar
borealis@airpost.net
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If that's what you wrote on your application form it's no wonder JREF are taking a long time getting back to you. It's difficult to tease out from it exactly what your claim is, let alone how you proved it to yourself and intend to demonstrate it to win the million.

A suitable test protocol needs to

1. Methodically eliminate all explanations for the results other than the claim

2. Be practical, i.e. not require large sums of money or large amounts of time

3. Set a success criteria in advance that is clearly significantly higher than the expected chance result

4. Produce results which are self evident, i.e. no judgement or interpretation should be needed.

For example if my claim was that I could receive telepathic messages whilst dreaming I would have tested it using a protocol like the following, and have made quite sure that I could consistently reach the success criteria, before even submitting my claim.

Required:

- a set of 5 Zener cards

- 2 clipboards, each with a sheet of paper, an envelope and a pen. The papers should be pre-printed with a table of two columns. The first column should be pre-printed with the numbers 1 to 5, the second column should be blank and headed 'Zener card'.

- a sender (selected by the claimant)

- an observer.

Setup:

Room A containing a bed, one clipboard, and a chair for the observer

Room B containing a desk and chair, the other clipboard, a second chair for the observer, and the Zener cards, which the observer should shuffle and place face down in a row on the desk

1. The claimant enters Room A and stays in it for the duration of the test. The sender enters Room B and stays in it for the duration of the test. The observer is free to move between the rooms

2. The claimant goes to sleep

3. The observer stays with the claimant until rapid eye movements indicate that he/she has started dreaming and then notifies the sender that he/she should look at the first Zener card

4. The sender should turn over the first Zener card and write its identity in the first row of the table. He/she should then concentrate on it for, say, 1 minute, attempting to transmit it telepathically to the claimant

5. The claimant is then woken by the observer and fills in the first row of his/her own table with the identity of the card they believe they received telepathically whilst dreaming.

6. Repeat steps 2 - 5 for the other four Zener cards

7. When all 5 card identities have been telepathically transmitted whilst the claimant is dreaming the claimant and sender then seal their paper in the envelope, write their name on it and give it to the observer.

End of test.

The observer, claimant and volunteer then gather in Room B, and the observer unseals the envelopes. The number of matches between the rows in the two tables is noted.

The expected chance result would be, on average, 1 card correct. A reasonable success criteria for the preliminary test would probably be the identities of at least 4 cards correct.
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Have you tested yourself using this kind of protocol, Kathie? If not then you have no grounds for thinking you have the ability you claim, let alone for expecting anyone else to think so. Until and unless you can produce consistently better than chance results in a test like this the best explanation of your perception that you receive telepathic messages when you dream is the usual cognitive biases that have fooled so many people before you into thinking they have a paranormal ability when they have not.
 
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Kathie Bondar said:
I am claiming that dreams are telepathy in the sleeping state, and both dreams and telepathy tend to symbolize, thus need to be interpreted. I am also claiming that there is a threshold of intensity below which you don't get it, somewhat akin to light or sound intensity.
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Perfect example of what I'm talking about. Kathie sounds perfectly nice, with a claim that sounds too vague to test, but which should be good for at least 9 months of back-and-forth in the forum. Whatever protocol one might devise to test such a claim, how could it possibly ever capture the subtle nuance of the symbolism of dream-telepathy, and the lower-end limits of same? The protocol suggested by Pixel is straightforward and reasonable, but it only accounts for direct dream-telepathy, not symbolic telepathy subject to interpretation.

In short, Pixel's protocol tests a claim that is falsifiable, and which will hence, ipso facto, be unacceptable to Katherine. Although unqualified to evaluate Katherine's mental state, and prohibited by forum rules from giving mho about same, I suggest that one might follow the link posted by Professor Yaffle above, and draw one's own conclusions.

All that having been said, I'm deeply disappointed about the JREF's decision to stop posting applications and correspondence with claimants. As I and others have said more than once, that's what first brought me to this forum. Reading the applications and claimant correspondence was not only entertaining, but educational, per the "E" in "JREF."
 
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That's you Vulcan's excuse for everything! "I can't have emotions because I'm Vulcan." "I can't wash the dishes because I'm Vulcan." "I can't pay my half of the rent because money means nothing to Vulcans." I'm sick of it!
 
Klaymore said:
Perfect example of what I'm talking about. Kathie sounds perfectly nice, with a claim that sounds too vague to test, but which should be good for at least 9 months of back-and-forth in the forum. Whatever protocol one might devise to test such a claim, how could it possibly ever capture the subtle nuance of the symbolism of dream-telepathy, and the lower-end limits of same? The protocol suggested by Pixel is straightforward and reasonable, but it only accounts for direct dream-telepathy, not symbolic telepathy subject to interpretation.

In short, Pixel's protocol tests a claim that is falsifiable, and which will hence, ipso facto, be unacceptable to Katherine. Although unqualified to evaluate Katherine's mental state, and prohibited by forum rules from giving mho about same, I suggest that one might follow the link posted by Professor Yaffle above, and draw one's own conclusions.

All that having been said, I'm deeply disappointed about the JREF's decision to stop posting applications and correspondence with claimants. As I and others have said more than once, that's what first brought me to this forum. Reading the applications and claimant correspondence was not only entertaining, but educational, per the "E" in "JREF."
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Your problem is that you have not defined telepathy. I have.
You want to test something you know very little of, and that mostly by hearsay. You seem to be expecting something like a telephone conversation. The phone rings, you talk and hang up.
I am saying that telepathy works differently, otherwise it would just be another telephone line. I am giving the basic outlines upon which hopefully some people will follow up and advance. If you have a problem with that, well, though.
 
Kathie Bondar said:
Your problem is that you have not defined telepathy. I have.
You want to test something you know very little of, and that mostly by hearsay. You seem to be expecting something like a telephone conversation. The phone rings, you talk and hang up.
I am saying that telepathy works differently, otherwise it would just be another telephone line. I am giving the basic outlines upon which hopefully some people will follow up and advance. If you have a problem with that, well, though.
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Telepathy is the transfer of information from one mind to another without the use of the usual known senses. In order to establish that it exists you need to demonstrate such a transfer of information under circumstances that preclude alternative explanations, including chance and intelligent guesswork. Have you done that? If so, you will be able to describe the test protocol you used. If not, you have no grounds for claiming that telepathy exists.
 
So far it's yet another case of "as a proof I can offer what was communicated to me telepathically, besides I have no reason to distrust them as they have shared and revealed ...". The supposed communication becomes then proof of other things ... sort of doubling the bet.

That's why a test protocol is needed. A telepathic communication from the future tells me that Kathie will continued (SIC) to insist on her claims and offer only her word of honour.
 
Kathie Bondar said:
I want to take the test, filled out the application form months but have not heard back.
I am claiming that dreams are telepathy in the sleeping state, and both dreams and telepathy tend to symbolize, thus need to be interpreted. I am also claiming that there is a threshold of intensity below which you don't get it, somewhat akin to light or sound intensity.
Here we have three parameters: the sending intensity, the receiver's ability to recall the dream in detail, and of course interpretation. Here I might add that the sender may have some other influences acting on his/her brain, such as an unusual location, some personal issues, toothache, divorce etc..
If I recall correctly, I read about a 70-75% success rate of these tests, which in my opinion is sucess, considering the above factors.
If I would take test, I would want to be asleep at home and could not care less where the sender is located. I would want to be sleep, and I would want to submit my own dream interpretation by any means specified by you.
Yours truly
Kathie Bondar
borealis@airpost.net
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dreams are telepathy in the sleeping state; how did you come about this little pearl of wisdom? It took me a moment for your words to sink in because as first I thought you were talking about a form of astral travel or even remote viewing. But you make no definitive claim. I even in my skepticism would have given you some credence if you had said in your sleep you have the ability to interact with people, specifying weather they themselves are awake or asleep. Allowing messages to pass between the two of you which you upon waking interpret. In not caring where they are located you imply that you have an infinite range-beside that most people don't believe in astral projection to begin with the average person doesn't even have awareness of their astral travel projection beyond a jerking falling back into their body before waking. And even those who notice that don't recall where they went much less have any distance to their travel beyond a few feet from their sleeping body. Your using the term sender implies you'd be the receiver of the message I take it for interpretation so again you imply either your strong enough to just pick up anyones thoughts directed toward you or that there are individuals who can send information in such a manner strong enough for you to pick up pointedly in your sleep. In a world filled with people where at any given time half is awake while the other half is sleeping and you can receive individual messages to interpret.....I'm all for the woo as they call it on this site and even I find your vagueness skeptical
 
Klaymore said:
All that having been said, I'm deeply disappointed about the JREF's decision to stop posting applications and correspondence with claimants. As I and others have said more than once, that's what first brought me to this forum. Reading the applications and claimant correspondence was not only entertaining, but educational, per the "E" in "JREF."
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That's why I actually came to the site myself to see what people were claiming to do and the testing but there is none that I have seen. Something once about a prize being awarded to a guy who made a computer that could tell the future was actually what led me to the site. Which by the way is not right as its people who are being tested I thought not a machine made by a person.
 
barefootgoddess said:
That's why I actually came to the site myself to see what people were claiming to do and the testing but there is none that I have seen. Something once about a prize being awarded to a guy who made a computer that could tell the future was actually what led me to the site. Which by the way is not right as its people who are being tested I thought not a machine made by a person.
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How the paranormal feat is demonstrated isn't important. Succeed and you get the prize whether by waving your hands mysteriously over a stopped wrist watch while chanting the lyrics to Bohemian Rhapsody or by merely flipping the power switch on your latest Belch-fire 500 Predict-o-matic invention.
 
Jack by the hedge said:
I'm quite sure making a computer predict the future would qualify for the prize.
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I think she's referring to the April 1, 2008 award of the million dollar prize to Seth Raphael.

What? You mean Seth Raphael the fellow magician. And the same James Randi who Rick-Rolled his entire following on another April Fool's day?

People actually spread this around? It was a joke. Randi's not going to tell an audience, even at MIT, how a conjurer works his effect. The whole thing was a prank.
 
People with magic powers figured out that the challenge was rigged: The only way to win was to do something that was physically impossible.

Of course, this was no more than what they claimed to be able to do. It's just that most people don't actually insist that they really DO it.
 
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