One wonders who the likely successors would be.
Each candidate would have to command the support of some plurality of Oligarchs, I think. Is there a faction of Oligarchs who are marginalized by Putin and his cabal? Are they strong enough to support a successor who promises to elevate their status if he takes power? Who would that successor be? Shoigu? Or, Putin's dominant cabal has their own successor in mind, that they intend to install over the objections of other factions, when Putin finally pisses off to the great unknown. Who would that be? Medvedev?
What would a succession war even look like? Last time, one faction had support of the military, and forced the other faction to capitulate by rolling tanks. Ultimately, succession will be about who takes orders from whom. There's no point in Medvedev declaring himself president, if the military doesn't obey him or the Oligarchs ignore his policies.
The conventional wisdom of the current moment seems to be that a dictator's main job is directing the distribution of profits among the powerful members of his cabal. He is authorized by acclamation to decide who gets what, of all the things produced by the industries and bureaucracies controlled by his cabal. Putin seems to have succeeded by building a coalition of powerful people, who are willing to take his side and let him distribute wealth among them.
Do we see another such coalition forming, or already formed? Or is this going to be a case of the actual ruler(s) installing a public figurehead? Would that even make a difference, in terms of a succession fight?
