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Iraq Starting to Wake Up From the Nightmare?

Puppycow

Penultimate Amazing
Puppycow
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Is it too soon to hope that the worst is over for Iraq? This article and accompanying video are encouraging.
The security improvements in most neighborhoods are real. Days now pass without a car bomb, after a high of 44 in the city in February. The number of bodies appearing on Baghdad’s streets has plummeted to about 5 a day, from as many as 35 eight months ago, and suicide bombings across Iraq fell to 16 in October, half the number of last summer and down sharply from a recent peak of 59 in March, the American military says.

As a result, for the first time in nearly two years, people are moving with freedom around much of this city. In more than 50 interviews across Baghdad, it became clear that while there were still no-go zones, more Iraqis now drive between Sunni and Shiite areas for work, shopping or school, a few even after dark. In the most stable neighborhoods of Baghdad, some secular women are also dressing as they wish. Wedding bands are playing in public again, and at a handful of once shuttered liquor stores customers now line up outside in a collective rebuke to religious vigilantes from the Shiite Mahdi Army.
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None of this means the war was a good idea, and the future seems opaque, but it looks like at least temporarily things are starting to improve.
 
Here’s another take. In one sense this is a better comparison in that it compares this year to last year. The argument weakens in that it chooses a cut-off point of August for some of the data; a cut-off point that leaves out the period argued to be when the surge would show results.

Then this one. The violence has moved north. That’s not necessarily a bad thing; it could be an indication that the modern version of the “oil spot” strategy is working, but it bears looking at.
 
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Garrette said:
Here’s another take. In one sense this is a better comparison in that it compares this year to last year. The argument weakens in that it chooses a cut-off point of August for some of the data; a cut-off point that leaves out the period argued to be when the surge would show results.

Then this one. The violence has moved north. That’s not necessarily a bad thing; it could be an indication that the modern version of the “oil spot” strategy is working, but it bears looking at.
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I wish more people paid attention to stuff like this, from your first link.
But a huge problem also looms in the south, the center of Shiite political and spiritual influence and the site of Iraq's main oil fields.

There are daily gunbattles between the Mahdi Army militia — loyal to radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr — and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, the powerhouse Shiite political party that controls most of the bureaucracy and police forces in southern Iraq.

This month, the governors of two southern provinces loyal to the Supreme Islamic Council were killed in roadside bombings.

The clashes are expected to grow more intense as Britain draws downs its forces in southern Iraq over the coming months. The effect of the shrinking British presence is already being felt, said Cordesman in an assessment released Aug. 22.
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Not putting a bullet in Sadr's head in August 2003 is turning out, IMO, to be an opportunity lost.

DR
 
Darth Rotor said:
INot putting a bullet in Sadr's head in August 2003 is turning out, IMO, to be an opportunity lost.

DR
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Absolutely. Even more so given the number of well-placed, well-informed folk on the ground at the time who advocated as much. I was among that group.
 
Today's Fresh Air had an interview with the author of "Fiasco", who has been to Iraq 10-12 times since the invasion.
He admits the violence is down, and that's a good thing. However, there are many caveats:

Many of the neighborhoods in Baghdad are quieter because they have already been ethnically cleansed. Millions of Iraqis, especially Sunni, have left Iraq, and are planning to return. They will want the homes they left, now in many cases occupied by Shia squatters....

The Shia-dominated government remains intransigent regarding most all of the "benchmark" issues that stand in the way of ending sectarian struggle. It is rife with corruption.

The police forces in the country are hopeless, according to all pundits and the GAO. Corrupt, sectarian....Many say the whole affair should be abolished and a fresh start made.

Our increasingly-cozy relationship with the Sunni ex-insurgents is glanced askance by the ruling Shia, and the more pessimistic see this relationship as one of convenience only....

And so on....
 
No doubt that things are quieter (if nothing else, fewer US troops are dying), which some can point to the surge as working (which may be true) and that we need to 'stay the course'.

I would note, as Bikewer notes, that the Iraqi government is still disfunctional and the ravaliries are still there....it is just that most of the sides (including Iran) realize that as long as the US in there in force, we are the 800-lb gorilla that will stop any group/militia/other country from getting too much influence and power (which could threaten our forces).

So their best stragety is...what will get the US out of there, or at least decrease out troop strength so they have a freer hand...which dictates a lower level of violence so the President (be they Repub or Demo) can "declare victory" and start bringing our troops home.

We'll see what happens when the "surge" ends (as it must because we cannot continue it indefinitely) or additional troops head home.

Because once we get them out of Iraq, I seriously doubt we'll ever send them back tgo increase the troop numbers...

Interesting times still has a way to go....

IMHO as always.
 
The number of bodies appearing on Baghdad’s streets has plummeted to about 5 a day, from as many as 35 eight months ago, and suicide bombings across Iraq fell to 16 in October, half the number of last summer and down sharply from a recent peak of 59 in March
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Sounds almost like paradise... :rolleyes:
 
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Hehe- the reporter I spoke of above said that in his last visit he was only hearing a "few" mortar rounds per day, and only dozens of gunshots.... Only one car bomb in several weeks.

I suppose there are US cities comparable.....Well maybe not the mortars.
 
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