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International Labour Crisis

The Atheist

The Grammar Tyrant
Joined
Jul 3, 2006
Messages
36,189
If you've been awake for last six months, you'll be aware that there is presently a massive need for workers across the developed world.

USA, Canada, Australia, NZ, UK, France, even Japan is finally seeing it as well.

Covid is clearly to blame for the suddenness of the crisis, but it had been getting close to boiling just before covid hit, so the root problem is much earlier than 2020.

This table, from USA, shows where the growth is going to be over the next decade, and that matches with what I know from NZ, Aussie and UK, with an additional bit missing that seasonal labour won't grow a lot, but their shortages are even greater than the ones shown.

The problem I have is that solving the OECD's crisis by stealing all the competent people from developing nations is just shifting the problem onto poor countries, whose infrastructure is already a mess. One lesson the world failed to learn from covid was the need for co-ordination between health authorities, and if we rich countries destroy the systems inside developing nations, I fear it will be to our detriment over time.

Not only don't I have an answer, I'm not even sure one exists.

The other problem which isn't being mentioned anywhere is infrastructure. Canada may have the luxury of being able to build infrastructure for the 1.5 million incoming people, but if NZ hired 150,000 people right now they better want to live in tents and **** in a hole, because it will take us a lot longer to build the infrastructure to handle the people than it will to hire them.
 
The problem is that imported labour is cheaper than domestic labour and you can more readily get imports to do the less pleasant jobs such as fruit picking.

As a result, there has never been any attempt to deal with an international labour shortage. In fact, seasonal work such as fruit picking is actively discouraged by government policies: a fruit picker not only loses their social security if they dare to take on the job but they have to pay for their own accommodation as well and are likely to end up out of pocket as a result.

When Covid struck and farmers had trouble finding pickers do you think that the government did anything to help locals fill the positions? Of course not! They were not about to offend their global corporate masters. The farmers could just dump their crops for all they cared (and that's what farmers did).
 
If you are in an occupation that is suffering worker shortages then you could start a bidding war for your services. Employers would pay this as they should be able to sell whatever they produce. They can tell customers "buy my product or do not buy anything". But this is not what is happening. I do not know why.
 
the upstream problem of work migration is the lack of control developing countries are allowed to have over the flow of goods and capital in and out of their countries: it's fundamentally anti-market to allow for the free flow of goods but not labor.

If rich countries want less work migration, they need to support developing nations' effort to build their own economies, and allow them to level tariffs on imported goods, so that a domestic economy can develop.

It's downright evil that the countries that got and stayed rich through protectionism won't let other countries do the same.
 
If you are in an occupation that is suffering worker shortages then you could start a bidding war for your services. Employers would pay this as they should be able to sell whatever they produce. They can tell customers "buy my product or do not buy anything". But this is not what is happening. I do not know why.

The problem is that in some areas demand is very elastic. When it comes to food supply, people will shrug and pay the extra cost caused by increased labor costs. And like you I don’t know why farmers don’t pay market rates for labor and pass on the cost rises (yes I know supermarket chains aren’t easy to pass cost rises on to, but it is possible).

With hospitality, leisure, retail etc, consumers will be more likely to simply stop spending if costs rise. For Australia what has been happening (and will continue when immigration ramps up) in these areas is that visa holders will be paid lower than legal rates, and they are happy as a job is a job. Unions hate it, but pretty much everyone knows this is the situation in real life. I think this is how we will survive labor shortages.
 
Remember when the problem was that the robots were going to take all our jobs?
 
The problem is that imported labour is cheaper than domestic labour and you can more readily get imports to do the less pleasant jobs such as fruit picking.

Yep, and look where it's got us. Those pics of the oranges on the ground are truly heartbreaking.

If you are in an occupation that is suffering worker shortages then you could start a bidding war for your services. Employers would pay this as they should be able to sell whatever they produce. They can tell customers "buy my product or do not buy anything". But this is not what is happening. I do not know why.

Wake up Jeff!

I don't know where you've been for the rest of this year, but that's exactly what's happening. Here, this might help you catch up. Refers to NZ, and while Aussie is helped by thieving our workers, the same thing is happening there and every other country with labour shortages. One of the Americans couldn't find pickers for $45 an hour.

the upstream problem of work migration is the lack of control developing countries are allowed to have over the flow of goods and capital in and out of their countries: it's fundamentally anti-market to allow for the free flow of goods but not labor.

If rich countries want less work migration, they need to support developing nations' effort to build their own economies, and allow them to level tariffs on imported goods, so that a domestic economy can develop.

It's downright evil that the countries that got and stayed rich through protectionism won't let other countries do the same.

10/10

I hate the fact that we're so ******* selfish in the west we gut poorer countries for our own wants. Wasn't that supposed to stop post-colonial rule?

Remember when the problem was that the robots were going to take all our jobs?

:dl:

I have argued against that so many times over the past 40 years, when it became apparent in the 1970s that technology was never going to keep up with growth.
 
The other problem which isn't being mentioned anywhere is infrastructure. Canada may have the luxury of being able to build infrastructure for the 1.5 million incoming people,


The depressing thing is, while Canada could do that, we probably won't. We're already facing a housing crisis because we haven't built enough new homes for decades now. NIMBYs oppose just about any effort to densify our city centers, and builders are only interested in building high-end luxury buildings that most people can't afford. Our housing prices and rents have gone up ridiculous amounts in the past few years, far more than in the US on average.

My own house has almost tripled in value since I bought it. The apartment next door to the one I used to live in sold for about 7 times what I paid for mine in 1997, while my income has only gone up by about a factor of 3. If I were starting my career today, even making what I'm making now, I couldn't afford the condo I started with 25 years ago. It's nuts, and it doesn't look like anyone is interested in doing what we have to do to make things better.

With the equity in my house, I personally will probably be fine, but a whole lot of other people are going to be screwed.
 
<snip>


Wake up Jeff!

I don't know where you've been for the rest of this year, but that's exactly what's happening. Here, this might help you catch up. Refers to NZ, and while Aussie is helped by thieving our workers, the same thing is happening there and every other country with labour shortages. One of the Americans couldn't find pickers for $45 an hour.

<snip>

It may be happening in NZ, but not in Oz. The average income per employed person went up 2.0% in the June quarter and 4.8% in the year. Part of this is because more hours were worked. So I am awake.

Ref: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/labour-accounts/labour-account-australia/latest-release
 
I'm reminded of the economic philosopher Douglas Adam's observation that societies maintain an entirely useless third of the population. That third is sucking up a lot of the workers needed in the real jobs.

eta: since the rise of personal cel phones, coupled with COVID personal sanitizing habits, the odds of being wiped out by a disease caught from a dirty telephone have been mitigated.
 
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I'm reminded of the economic philosopher Douglas Adam's observation that societies maintain an entirely useless third of the population. That third is sucking up a lot of the workers needed in the real jobs.

eta: since the rise of personal cel phones, coupled with COVID personal sanitizing habits, the odds of being wiped out by a disease caught from a dirty telephone have been mitigated.

David Graeber puts the number much higher than 1/3, as the 1/3 usually need another 1/3 to make up for the problems they cause.
 
David Graeber puts the number much higher than 1/3, as the 1/3 usually need another 1/3 to make up for the problems they cause.

Sidebar: I've had customers that are very uncomfortable with having myself and a couple other construction workers do their remodeling. They ask where the foremen and construction managers and designers and architects and engineers are. I point out that most of those people don't serve a purpose in smallish projects. Over-complicated and redundant self-perpetuating hierarchies are really hard-wired into some people's thinking.
 
The depressing thing is, while Canada could do that, we probably won't. We're already facing a housing crisis because we haven't built enough new homes for decades now.

That's all a perfect mirror pf what's happening in NZ.

It may be happening in NZ, but not in Oz.

June numbers are so obsolete as to be meaningless - tell me about the Sept 1/4 when it comes through.

Aussie was slower thanks to 100,000 Kiwis taking up a lot of slack.

I'm reminded of the economic philosopher Douglas Adam's observation that societies maintain an entirely useless third of the population. That third is sucking up a lot of the workers needed in the real jobs.

All the wisdom of the universe is in those books.

Swap the Shoe Event Horizon on Frogstar B with cafes on Earth and you have a good example of where we are.
 
LOL. There were fewer people employed in September than in July. The peak number of people employed was in May.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/l...abour-force-australia-detailed/latest-release

What an excellent way to show you have no idea what you're talking about!

The low number of people employed is direct evidence of the labour shortage.

ETA - some detail from ABC https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-17/breaking-point:-the-real-cost-of-australias-worker/14087284
 
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What an excellent way to show you have no idea what you're talking about!

The low number of people employed is direct evidence of the labour shortage.

ETA - some detail from ABC https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-17/breaking-point:-the-real-cost-of-australias-worker/14087284

LOL. So a decreasing number of people & % of the population being employed and increasing unemployment is evidence that there is an increasing worker shortage? No I do not think so. And your links do not support your arguments.

I suggest that personal comment you made about me is really about yourself.
 
And your links do not support your arguments

Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.

17 October 2022

Australia is in the grip of a national labour shortage. From hospitals and hotels through to farms and factories there's an urgent need for workers.

The crisis is not only impacting the current generation of workers. The national shortage of teachers means Australia's next generation of workers are also being severely affected.

The federal government has promised to speed up Australia's visa processing system to bring in more foreign workers including registered nurses who are desperately needed.

Some employers are being pushed to their limits. For many the true cost of the worker shortage crisis is more than just financial.


Yeah, you well and truly got me...
 
Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.

17 October 2022

Australia is in the grip of a national labour shortage. From hospitals and hotels through to farms and factories there's an urgent need for workers.

The crisis is not only impacting the current generation of workers. The national shortage of teachers means Australia's next generation of workers are also being severely affected.

The federal government has promised to speed up Australia's visa processing system to bring in more foreign workers including registered nurses who are desperately needed.

Some employers are being pushed to their limits. For many the true cost of the worker shortage crisis is more than just financial.


Yeah, you well and truly got me...
In other words, you just give an opinion piece. I give the facts.
 
In other words, you just give an opinion piece. I give the facts.

Oh come off it. Anyone with even a superficial knowledge of the Australian labor market (and many others) know there is a massive skills and labor shortage issue. It actually preceded covid, but covid didn’t help by reducing the influx of visa holders. There is the unwillingness of young people to do many of the manual, factory, labouring, agricultural, retail, hospitality and even trades jobs out there. We have been getting by only because of visa holders, many violating the working restrictions of their visas. This is happening now and will continue because there are not the resources to police visas, nor the willingness. Jeez, just walk around a shopping centre some time and have a look at the “we are hiring” signs.
 
just walk around a shopping centre some time and have a look at the “we are hiring” signs.

Indeed. I've never seen so many businesses advertising for workers.

"Job vacancies were 107.4% higher than they were in February 2020, prior to the start of the pandemic. The ongoing high level of vacancies reflects organisations across the economy indicating labour shortages and ongoing disruptions to operations, particularly in household goods and services industries. "

ABS: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/jobs/job-vacancies-australia/latest-release
 
Indeed. I've never seen so many businesses advertising for workers.

I took a cruise around Auckland's industrial heartland a couple of weeks ago to chat to local business owners. I couldn't find a single one without a vacancy.

When it all comes crashing down, it's going to hit hard.
 
I took a cruise around Auckland's industrial heartland a couple of weeks ago to chat to local business owners. I couldn't find a single one without a vacancy.

When it all comes crashing down, it's going to hit hard.

As I have said before I’ve worked for 25 years with apprentices and employers of apprentices. I have studied other nation’s apprenticeship systems and I think I can prove Australia has the best apprenticeship system of all. It’s been a magnificent pipeline of skilled tradespeople for decades. But apprenticeship vacancies are being unfilled. Schools are doing their bit with pre-apprenticeship programs, but it’s not enough.

The inevitable result of trade shortages is increased inflation.
 
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<snip>

The inevitable result of trade shortages is increased inflation.
The big question is where will the extra money needed to purchase these goods go? I have already shown wages are not going up anywhere near as fast as inflation. The Atheist has said profits are not going up. So who is taking the money?
 
The big question is where will the extra money needed to purchase these goods go? I have already shown wages are not going up anywhere near as fast as inflation. The Atheist has said profits are not going up. So who is taking the money?

Oh please. The price of services will increase. Supply and demand. Pretty basic. This can and does occur without wages as a whole increasing. What do you expect will happen with the price of engaging a plumber with a shortage of plumbers?

You are embarrassing yourself here.
 
Oh please. The price of services will increase. Supply and demand. Pretty basic. This can and does occur without wages as a whole increasing. What do you expect will happen with the price of engaging a plumber with a shortage of plumbers?

You are embarrassing yourself here.

You have failed to even attempt to answer my question. I did not say inflation will not happen. In fact I have said it will happen. Yet you assume I said the opposite. So I ask again who will profit from these increased prices?
 
You have failed to even attempt to answer my question. I did not say inflation will not happen. In fact I have said it will happen. Yet you assume I said the opposite. So I ask again who will profit from these increased prices?

What? You are denying there is a labor shortage. You are wrong. Pathetically so. Try again.
 
What? You are denying there is a labor shortage. You are wrong. Pathetically so. Try again.

This is your second fail. You have not even attempted to answer my question. Your accusation is not relevant. I will ignore it. My question even implies there is a worker shortage causing inflation.

Anyone can see I am right.
 
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This is your second fail. You have not even attempted to answer my question. Your accusation is not relevant. I will ignore it.

Is there or is there not a labor shortage in Australia? A simple question.
 
What form do you think the crash will take?

A prolonged period of stagflation, much like Japan experienced for 20 years, but probably not that long.

As I have said before I’ve worked for 25 years with apprentices and employers of apprentices. I have studied other nation’s apprenticeship systems and I think I can prove Australia has the best apprenticeship system of all.

And you can bet NZ's is the worst. Ours is so broken and corrupt the government allows industries to flout the rules because they can make more profit by cheating.

When he was in opposition, our current Deputy PM promised they'd stop the rorts.

Never happened.
 
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