How do we know a pandemic's over?

[Clutch Cargo]

Clutch Cargo has been lying, repeatedly, about Sweden's pandemic response since 2020.

You are wrong.

And so has Anders Tegnell, who was Sweden's state epidemiologist at the time.

He turned out to be right. That makes you a liar by default.

 

[dann]

Anders Tegnell, Johan Giesecke and Johnny Ludvigsson lied about the pandemic since early 2020, and they never stopped lying, be it about herd immunity by infection, the alleged dangers of masking, or children's alleged immunity to the virus.
Nowadays, Hanne Kjöller is lying about Long Covid.
For some reason, Johan Giesecke is the only one of them whose false claims about the pandemic are listed in the Wikipedia article in a way that makes it apparent how absurd they were. Unfortunately, it doesn't mention that his claims were based on his magkänsla.
You may decide to repeat their lies, but that doesn't turn their lies into anything even remotely resembling truth.

Swedish exceptionalism and the Sars‐CoV2 pandemic crisis: Representations of crisis and national identity in the public sphere (Aarhus Universitet, 2022)

 

[dann]

COVID Boosters Might Not Be Updated for Next Season FDA Commissioner Says (U.S.News, May 6, 2025)
The head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reiterated Tuesday that the agency is applying a more skeptical approach to this year's round of COVID-19 vaccine boosters.
Companies applying for approval of COVID boosters are being encouraged to use "gold standard science," including full-fledged clinical trials involving healthy people, FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary said today at the the American Hospital Association's annual meeting in Washington, D.C.
That approach could mean no COVID boosters could be approved in time for next winter's respiratory disease season, Makary has warned in earlier interviews.

And if updates boosters are made, they "should be given primarily to high-risk groups," i.e. only to 65+, I assume, which is the current C19-vaccine policy in most of Northern Europe. For everybody else, it will be herd immunity by infection with the new variants.

 

[dann]

World Health Network on X, May 13, 2025
"Still masking?" Here's why one health professor hasn't stopped.
Sean Mullen, PhD, used to take risks. He trained in martial arts, traveled frequently, and lived a high-intensity lifestyle. But as research on the long-term effects of COVID-19 emerged, his priorities shifted.
Now he wears an N95 in classrooms, labs, and meetings. Not because of fear, but because of evidence. He has studied the science behind brain changes, immune disruption, and Long COVID, and he has adapted to protect his health and the people around him.
In a culture eager to move on, he's staying grounded in the facts. If you’re still masking too, share this post.
Read the full piece here:
http://whn.global/stuck-in-the-middle-with-masking-playing-the-long-game-in-a-short-sighted-age/

 

[dann]

Hong Kong:

Mike Honey on X, May 13, 2025
Hong Kong’s surveillance report shows some indicators are at the highest levels in over a year.
Seems NB.1.8.1 can drive a significant wave, even in a population saturated in its ancestor XDV.* variants.
COVID-19 & Flu Express (Centre for Health Protection, Department of Health, Hong Kong)

Friesein on X, May 13, 2025
In Hong Kong, COVID positivity, case numbers, severe cases are exceeding their local maximum from July 2024 and are still rising.
This is likely being driven by NB.1.8.1, which is 100% prevalent in HK sequencing.
This is a harbinger of things to come in the rest of the world.

 

[dann]

Hong Kong:
Friesein on X, May 13, 2025

Something went wrong with my link.
It should have been:
Friesein on X, May 13, 2025

 

[dann]

Hong Kong:
COVID-19 deaths surge as severe cases spike in Hong Kong, health officials warn (dimsumdaily.hk,

Denis - the COVID info guy - on X, May 15, 2025
Hong Kong: COVID-19 deaths surge as severe cases spike in Hong Kong, health officials warn.
COVID activity in Hong Kong has surged since mid-March, with severe adult cases and deaths rising from 3 last month to 26 this month—highest since last August.

Mike Honey on X, May 10, 2025
NB.1.8.1 was initially reported from Hong Kong, rising to 100% frequency. It has also shown sustained growth in several other countries in the region, plus Canada and the US - all adding to its credibility.

 

[Chanakya]

Sorry, this is picking on a tangential and probably irrelevant detail, but Dimsum Daily? Not an Onion equivalent, I hope? (Not that this content here is Onion-y.)


eta: Nope. Serious news outlet. Not a parody site, despite the name. Checked just now.

 

[dann]

No, not a parody site, but also not a site I would rely on without looking at other sources.
I should have added that it's still not a high number of deaths: "the number of deaths increasing from three last month to 26 this month."
Denmark had 14 C-19 deaths in April, 34 in March. 9 in May, so far.

 

[dann]

Not just Hong Kong
China:
China Sees Moderate Rise in Covid-19 Cases, Large-Scale Outbreaks Unlikely (Caixin Global, May 16, 2025)
Caixin Global on X
Others question that the rise is only moderate:

Michael on X, May 16, 2025
I don’t believe for one moment that there is just a moderate rise. They’d be inundated right now. Cases have been surging for the past fortnight with the rise of NB.1.8.1. This spreads aggressively and will cause significant acute and long term complications. Watch your cells.

Singapore:

How Singapore businesses are scrambling to stay open amid the new Covid-19 wave (Malay Mail/yahoo!news, May 15, 2025)
A recent spike in Covid-19 cases in Singapore has prompted some businesses to reactivate contingency plans to deal with staff shortages and safeguard customer health.
From Apr 27 to May 3, Singapore recorded an estimated 14,200 Covid-19 cases, up from 11,100 the week before, according to health authorities.
According to a Channel News Asia report, restaurants and transport firms have responded by hiring part-time staff, intensifying cleaning measures, and providing protective equipment to their employees.

Taiwan:

COVID-19 cases surge across Taiwan, with nearly 10,000 seeking medical care (Anadolu Ajansi, May13, 2025)
COVID-19 cases continue to surge across Taiwan, with nearly 10,000 seeking medical care last week, Taiwan’s Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said Tuesday, Focus Taiwan reported.
On May 4-10, Taiwan saw 9,978 outpatient and emergency visits related to COVID-19, a 66% increase from the previous week. According to the CDC, this marks the fifth consecutive week of rising cases.
Despite the increase, the weekly case count remained lower than the 23,324 visits recorded during the same period last year, as stated by Lee Chia-lin, the deputy director of the CDC's Epidemic Intelligence Center, during a regular news briefing.

Iran:

Iran sees rise in COVID-19 cases as experts urge return to masks (Iranintel.com, May 12, 2025)
Iran is witnessing a renewed rise in COVID-19 cases, prompting health experts to recommend that vulnerable individuals wear masks in public places, particularly in crowded enclosed areas, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported.
Infectious disease specialist Davoud Yandegarinia told IRNA on Sunday that while there is no consolidated data on the number of new infections, an increase in hospital admissions and clinic visits indicates the virus is spreading again.

Spain:

Miguel Leiva Torreiro on X, May 12, 2025
Parece que se está gestando una nueva ola covid. Hay un cambio de tendencia bastante brusco, por lo menos a tenor de los datos en Galicia. Esta semana veremos si se confirma. Hoy se notifican 22 nuevos casos y 2 altas. Hay 18 hospitalizados en planta.
https://fonte.es/A-UTILIDADES/2020-01-01~Informacion_covid.html

https://x.com/Miguel_Leiva_/status/1921951095682675198/photo/1
International examples taken from a TikTok video (5:23 min.) recommended by Dr. Sean Mullen on X:

SharonBC,Canada on X, May 17, 2025
* COVID19 update for May 16, 2025 *
* New wave seems to be building globally *
Lizzietraveler is on TikTok.

 

[dann]

And more Hong Kong:

Hong Kong children urged to get Covid jabs as "whole paediatric ward full" (South China Morning Post, May 17, 2025)
Head of paediatric infectious diseases unit at a public hospital says all of the young patients in the ward he oversees are unvaccinated

 

[dann]

Singapore and Hong Kong Face New COVID-19 Outbreaks as Asia Experiences Widespread Infection Waves (TravelAndTourWorld, May 18, 2025)
Singapore and Hong Kong face new COVID-19 outbreaks as Asia experiences widespread infection waves, raising fresh concerns for travelers and residents alike. Both cities have seen a notable rise in case numbers driven by factors such as waning immunity, relaxed restrictions, and increased social interactions. In densely populated urban centers like these, the virus can spread rapidly, especially with large gatherings and extensive use of public transport. This resurgence reflects a broader pattern across Asia, where countries including China and Thailand are also reporting spikes following recent festivals and easing of pandemic controls.

Maybe GraculusTheGreenBird can tell us more about masking up in Hong Kong.
This is the guidance for travelers to those places:

Given these developments, travelers planning trips to Singapore, Hong Kong, or other parts of Asia should exercise heightened caution and prepare accordingly. While these surges do not necessarily warrant canceling travel plans, they do indicate an increased risk of exposure, especially in crowded urban environments.

• Stay Updated: Regularly consult official government websites and health agencies for the latest travel advisories, entry requirements, and local COVID-19 regulations.
• Use Masks: Carry face masks and wear them in crowded settings such as airports, public transit, markets, and busy indoor venues. Masks remain one of the most effective barriers against airborne transmission.
• Vaccination is Key: Ensure your COVID-19 vaccinations are current, including any recommended booster doses. This is particularly important for older adults, individuals with health conditions, and those planning to visit high-risk settings.
• Monitor Health: Be vigilant for any symptoms before, during, and after travel. Promptly seek medical advice and testing if symptoms arise.
• Plan for Flexibility: Consider booking refundable or flexible tickets and accommodations, and look into travel insurance that covers COVID-related disruptions.

The unpredictable nature of COVID-19 waves means travelers should be ready for potential last-minute changes to their plans. Local authorities may reintroduce restrictions, such as mask mandates or limits on gatherings, in response to rising cases.

Residents of Singapore and Hong Kong should also consider stocking up on masks. They got very expensive back in early 2020:
Coronavirus: Masks 'going for £125' as profiteers take advantage of surging demand in Hong Kong (Sky News, Jan 31, 2020)

With one exception, European media seems to be blissfully unaware of the surge in (mainly) the Far East:

Covid-19 spikes in Hong Kong and Singapore as new wave spreads (Irish News, May 16, 2025)
China is on track to see a Covid wave reach last year’s summer peak
A pile of protective face masks in Hong Kong. Covid-19 cases are spiking in the region

 

[dann]

Italy:

Dr Elisa Perego on X, May 20, 2025
NB.1.8.1 has already been reported in Italy

Dr Elisa Perego, May 18, 2025
Child hospitalizations for Covid in Italy (0—9 years) are growing back to this winter's levels. Worrisome [A note: while surveillance is low in Italy, variants which are of concern have been detected in the last few weeks in the country, which might contribute to new waves]

 

[dann]

FDA to limit future Covid-19 shots to older people and those at risk of serious infection (CNN, May 20, 2025)
The US Food and Drug Administration is changing the way it approves Covid-19 vaccines for Americans — a move that will limit future vaccines to older Americans and people at higher risk of serious Covid-19 infection.
The agency is changing the standard of evidence required for Covid-19 vaccine approval in the US, Dr. Vinay Prasad, the new director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, and FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary, said in an editorial published Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine
The change means that Covid-19 shots will likely be available in the fall for adults ages 65 and older and those with underlying conditions that may put them at higher risk of a Covid-19 infection, but not for everyone who was previously eligible for an updated shot. Nearly three-quarters of Americans age 6 months and older have an underlying medical condition that puts them at higher risk, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Notice what a pediatrician in Hong Kong said about unvaccinated patients in the current outbreak: post 1,191.

Don Ford on X, May 20, 2025
The way this is being reported by LITERALLY EVERYONE is pathetic.
Rules get set by ACIP, which meets next month.
So, what if they approved with some stupid ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ restriction..? WE WILL SIMPLY MAKE THEM CHANGE IT.
I hate this ◊◊◊◊◊◊ "Take what you are given" attitude from liberals.
These people do not fight or stand up when it matters.
They cower and do what they are told.
But that's not me, it's literally stupid to think we can't get this recommendation changed this month.

 

[dann]

Hong Kong variants:

Mike Honey on X, May 19, 2025
Here’s the current variant picture for Hong Kong, showing the rapid “clean sweep” by the XDV.* variants, led by NB.1.8.1. In the JN.1 era (since late 2023) it has been very rare to see this, anywhere.

Mike Honey expects Australia to be hit:

... NB.1.8.1. is a new combination of mutations.
So realistically there still seems to be a fair chance that places like Australia will also experience a really big wave.
(...)
Australia also has seasonality working against us, and the experts predict large waves of Influenza and RSV in our winter this year (see up this thread). Pulverised healthcare capacity has a snowball effect.
https://bsky.app/profile/mikehoney.bsky.social/post/3lp757eoss22r

 

[dann]

Hong Kong:

Editorial | Remain vigilant after Covid reminds us it has never gone away (SCMP, May 17, 2025)
Taking personal hygiene precautions, such as wearing face masks in crowded public places and agreeing to have booster shots when necessary, remains the best defence as Hong Kong continues to learn to live with a stubborn coronavirus.

In Hong Kong, they don't seem to understand that learning to live with the virus is supposed to mean learning to ignore the virus. Wearing face masks in public places is a violation of the Western interpretation of learning to live with the virus. Nothing makes it more apparent that the virus is still there, still causes hospitalizations, and still kills, than masking up and getting the booster shots.
We're not supposed to be reminded that COVID-19 has never gone away.

Meanwhile, in the USA:

Diseases are spreading. The CDC isn't warning the public like it was months ago (NPR, May 21, 2025)
To accomplish its mission of increasing the health security of the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention states that it "conducts critical science and provides health information" to protect the nation. But since President Trump's administration assumed power in January, many of the platforms the CDC used to communicate with the public have gone silent, an NPR analysis found.

 

[dann]

Viewpoint: Making key COVID vaccine decisions without input, transparency is a public disservice (CIDRAP, May 21, 2025)
Strengthening trust in public health, especially around big changes to vaccine policy, requires transparency, including letting the American people know what data you're using to make them.
Newly announced rules that limit the use of COVID vaccines suggest that Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and federal public health agencies are moving in the opposite direction.
(...)
But yesterday—before the planned VRBPAC meeting of advising experts—the FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research Director Vinay Prasad, MD, MPH, and Commissioner Marty Makary, MD, MPH, announced new rules for COVID vaccine use via an opinion piece in the New England Journal of Medicine. Without the benefits of their committee's expertise and public discussion, the op-ed dictates that shots will be reserved for people over 65, or for those in a risk-category for severe illness.

 

[dann]

I don't remember who mentioned Physics Girl in this or the other other thread a long time ago.
She was hit very hard with Long Covid, got ME/CFS, but now seems to be improving:
First Update From Dianna (Physics Girl on YouTube, May 22, 2025 - 12:22 min.)

 

[Chanakya]

I don't remember who mentioned Physics Girl in this or the other other thread a long time ago.
She was hit very hard with Long Covid, got ME/CFS, but now seems to be improving:
First Update From Dianna (Physics Girl on YouTube, May 22, 2025 - 12:22 min.)

@Skeptic Ginger , I think. Good that she's better.