How do we know a pandemic's over?

[Roger Ramjets]

it's not exactly news that C19 damages the heart - also in young people:

...and the brain. It will be decades before we know the true extent of the damage. Eventually the folly of just letting everyone get it because most seem to recover with no ill effects will be known. Unfortunately that message will never get through to the deniers though, because it was never about facts for them - it was about 'freedom' .

Some good may come out it of though. I suspect that many diseases which affect people 'randomly' are actually caused by viruses that we don't think anything of getting regularly, which gradually damage the body until something breaks. I hope to live long enough to see the results of these long term studies, as they could be very interesting.

Another positive is that authorities are now more intent on avoiding future pandemics. Right now New Zealand is having a whooping cough epidemic, and they are getting the message out promptly. So far I haven't seen any push-back from anti-vaxxers, probably because it doesn't affect them personally (unless they catch it of course). Considering that it kills babies I doubt they would get much traction these days.

 

[dann]

...and the brain. It will be decades before we know the true extent of the damage. Eventually the folly of just letting everyone get it because most seem to recover with no ill effects will be known. Unfortunately that message will never get through to the deniers though, because it was never about facts for them - it was about 'freedom' .

Indeed!

Some good may come out it of though. I suspect that many diseases which affect people 'randomly' are actually caused by viruses that we don't think anything of getting regularly, which gradually damage the body until something breaks. I hope to live long enough to see the results of these long term studies, as they could be very interesting.

That papillomaviruses cause cancer wasn't even hypothesized untill the 1970s. The first HPV vaccine didn't become available until 2006.

Another positive is that authorities are now more intent on avoiding future pandemics. Right now New Zealand is having a whooping cough epidemic, and they are getting the message out promptly. So far I haven't seen any push-back from anti-vaxxers, probably because it doesn't affect them personally (unless they catch it of course). Considering that it kills babies I doubt they would get much traction these days.

There have been pertussis epidemics all around the world since the pandemic began, and many other infectious diseases also seem to have skyrocketed. At first, this was put down to 'immunity debt' due to restrictions rendering the immune system 'untrained', but it has become increasingly apparent that it is probably due to the immunity being weakened by COVID-19.

COVID-19 leads to long-term changes in the immune system, study shows (NewsMedical, July 15, 2024)
"Even after mild disease progression, we found a significant reduction of immune cells in the blood," says Winfried Pickl, providing details from the study.

So much for the super-immunity idea that was so popular in the winter of 2021-22.

 

[dann]

The cough that dare not speak its name

Notice that, just like the BBC, The Times also prefers to keep the cough that there dare not speak its name out of its headlines

Hospitals hit by 'tidal wave' of flu and winter illness (BBC, Dec 12, 2024
Hospitals in England are being hit by a "tidal wave" of flu and other winter viruses, NHS bosses say.
Data released by NHS England showed there were an average of nearly 1,900 beds occupied by flu patients last week – up 70% on the week before.
That is more than three times higher than this time last year, with doctors warning that they are struggling to contain the spread of the virus within hospitals as well as seeing more patients being admitted.
Covid, RSV and the vomiting bug Norovirus are also continuing to cause problems.

COVID-19 is mentioned only once, the flu eight times!

Coughs lingering as public urged to get vaccinated (BBC, Dec 18, 2024)
The flu is mentioned 11 times in the article, COVID-19 twice!

New posts in The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread about a retracted hydroxy study and about excess mortality in Australia, England and Wales.

 

[dann]

Australia

Will we have a COVID wave, spike or blip this Christmas? It depends on where you live ( UNSW Sydney, Dec 13, 2024)
As the holiday season approaches, COVID cases are rising again in Australia, particularly in Victoria and Tasmania.
This is now the fourth year running with a summer rise of COVID, and the second year with a roughly six-month gap between waves.

Urgent warning issued as new Covid wave hits Western Australia days out from Christmas (Daily Mail Australia, Dec 16, 2024)
Covid cases in WA have skyrocketed
Hospitalisations tipped to soar over Christmas
An average of 75 people have been hospitalised with Covid every day in Western Australia in recent weeks
Authorities have warned anyone with cold or flu-like symptoms to stay at home and to wear masks in crowded public settings

 

[dann]

I hadn't heard about the Swifties in this context since August, but there's news. This time from Canada:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1869608989589401868

 

[dann]

Not that many other crowded indoor events aren't just as bad ...

Down bad with the Swiftie flu after Vancouver. Anybody else? (Reddit, Dec 18, 2024)
I know that logically, traveling through crowded airports and spending a weekend visiting crowded indoor business - topped off with 50,000 screaming fans stuffed like sardines into a closed stadium - is a recipe for spreading illness.
Just wondering if anybody has also had 5ish days of swollen glands, sore throat, headache, congestion/general head pressure and intermittent cough that test negative for COVID, flu-A, flu-B, and strep throat. Started about three days after we attended Vancouver N3, and flew home the following day.
(My mother has dubbed this the “Swiftie flu.”)

And as another Reddit user writes:

It's most likely Covid. Rapid tests are not very reliable and can give people false negatives for days until finally turning positive on like day 7 of symptoms. Keep testing to keep others around you safe

 

[dann]

"Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1..."
A Christmas reminder:

Dr. Lucky Tran on X, Dec 23, 2024
One of the most important times to wear a mask is right now during holiday season travel.
Transits hubs are high risk as many travel while they are sick.
A high quality mask like an N95 will help protect you and help ensure you don't miss out on valuable time with loved ones.

 

[Chanakya]

Haha, yes, I'm packing right now! I absolutely am carrying some masks with me --- but, I confess, I was thinking of just going in maskless, but with masks ready in my carry-on in case there's people sniffling nearby. That is, I didn't really consciously sit there thinking that I'd do this, it's just, I guess that's what I was going to do, this time.

Thanks for that timely reminder! Mask up from the get-go, it is, now.

 

[dann]

I would mask up before going on the subway to the airport.
Evaluation of infection probability of CovId-19 in different types of airliner cabins (NIH/PMC, Mar 2, 2023)

Study shows enforced masking on long flights prevents SARS-CoV-2 transmission (NewsMedical, May28, 2024)
However, our freedom to spread and/or catch the virus is much more important, obviously.

 

[dann]

USA:

'A winter wave' of COVID could (!) be coming as America gathers for the holidays (USA Today, Dec 24, 2024)
Just as everyone prepares to gather with family and friends for holiday celebrations, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says COVID could (!) be on the rise, based on wastewater data.
(...)
CDC wastewater findings suggest (!) 'winter wave' is coming

However, most of the other numbers are far from recent (= 2024) peaks:

• Deaths: The percentage of deaths due to COVID-19 rose 1.1% for the week ending Dec. 14. The number of COVID-related deaths is down from this year's high of 2,583 for the week ending Jan. 13, 2024, to 254 in the week ending Dec. 14, the CDC says.
• Hospitalizations: Those related to COVID-19 have fallen from 10.7 per 100,000 in October to 2.3 per 100,000 so far in December, according to the agency.
• Tests: Weekly positive COVID-19 tests have risen slightly to 5.6% for the week ending Dec. 14 – higher than the 4.1% rate for the week ending Nov. 16 – but still far below 17.8% rate for the week ending Aug. 10.
• Emergencies: The percentage of emergency department visits diagnosed as COVID the week ending Dec. 14 amounted to 0.7%, almost the same as since mid-October.

 

[dann]

UK:

A&E departments 'absolutely full to bursting' as flu surge worsens already fires situation, top medic warns (Independent, Dec 25, 2024)
"We simply don’t have enough beds in our hospitals for patients who are admitted as emergencies."

 

[marting]

The USA Today misstates.

• Deaths: The percentage of deaths due to COVID-19 rose 1.1% for the week ending Dec. 14. The number of COVID-related deaths is down from this year's high of 2,583 for the week ending Jan. 13, 2024, to 254 in the week ending Dec. 14, the CDC says.

Covid-19 deaths rose from .8% to 1.1% of all deaths from the prior week. Deaths rose 37.5% (CDC), not 1.1%.

 

[dann]

A trolling minimizer starts a thread ... and doesn't last long in it:

pillman889 on X, Dec 26, 2024
People are eating out less because it's too expensive.
It has nothing to do with covid flu infections.

Read it for the replies! Especially if you are one of those people who thinks it's over.
Happy New Year!

 

[dann]

Another headline emphasizing the flu even though ....

US respiratory virus infections rise, led by flu (CIDRAP, Jan 3, 2024)
During Christmas week, respiratory virus activity continued a steady rise across much of the nation, with the largest spikes seen for flu. COVID-19 levels continue to climb from low levels, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity is still very high in many regions, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest updates.
(...)
The weekly percentage of deaths, however, is higher for COVID than for flu or RSV, according to the latest CDC data.
(...)
Wastewater tracking shows Midwest as COVID hot spot
Nationally, COVID levels remain at the high level, though detections in the Midwest are nearly twice that of the national level. Levels are showing rising trends, however, in other US regions.
For comparison, wastewater levels are moderate for both flu and RSV.In its weekly respiratory virus snapshot, the CDC said it still expects hospitalizations from the respiratory viruses over the fall and winter to have a similar or lower peak than last season, though officials expect the overall peak hospitalization to remain higher than before SARS-CoV-2 emerged.

 

[icerat]

Another headline emphasizing the flu even though ....

But if we don't test it ... it goes away! Ask Donald

 

[dann]

Graphics posted by Cat in the Hat on X, April 22, 2024:
COVID’S EFFECT ON THE IMMUNE SYSTEMThis is an excellent series of graphics from @YaleSPH explaining what we do (and don’t) know about Covid’s effect on the immune system.
Much of this is informed by the work of Dr. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity). H/t @fitterhappierAJ

 

[dann]

UK:

Lockdown babies 'can't respond to their own name' (Telegraph, Jan 3, 2025)
Almost three quarters of teachers say'Covid children' born in 2020 are struggling

Notice the disconnect between what teachers call those children and what The Telegraph calls them.
I don't think The Telegraph has considered that 'lockdown babies' are the first generation of children born during the pandemic and thus also the first generation of children infected with COVID-19 in their first year of life and sometimes during their mothers' pregnancy. If the suspicion that COVID-19 and not the lockdowns is what has caused a possible mental impairment in these children, it will continue in the coming years with children born in 2021, 2022 etc., who may turn out to have even bigger problems.

Besides, why would lockdowns affect babies negatively? They can't have missed out on school due to lockdowns, which is the usual explanation for the recent bad PISA results in many countries.

And another thing: It is not as if encopresis is an entirely new phenomenon that didn't exist before the pandemic, but ...
Quarter of new schoolchildren still not toilet trained (Independent, Feb 28, 2024)

 

[dann]

As for adults, this was fourteen months ago in the USA. And apparently not at all due to the immensely dangerous lockdowns but to the actual disease itself:

Can't Think, Can't Remember: More Americans Say They're in a Cognitive Fog (NYT, Nov 13, 2023)
Adults in their 20s, 30s and 40s are driving the trend. Researchers point to long Covid as a major cause.

A couple of excerpts on X from the paywalled article:

“There are more Americans who say they have serious cognitive problems.. than at any time in the last 15 years”The increase started with the pandemic.. The sharp increase captures the effects of #LongCovid”

“Richard Deitz, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, analyzed the data and attributed much of the increase to #LongCovid”“These numbers don’t do this — they don’t just start suddenly increasing sharply like this,” he said.

“Cognitive impairment is a hallmark of #LongCovid,” said Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly “Studies estimate some 20 to 30% of people who get Covid have some cognitive impairment several months later.. Research has also shown clear biological changes from the virus related to cognition”

“It’s not just fog, it’s a brain injury, basically,” said @MVGutierrezMD, chair of rehabilitation medicine at the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio. “There are neurovascular changes. There’s inflammation. There are changes on M.R.I.s.”

 

[dann]

The cough that dare not speak its name
UK:

Patients dying in hospital corridors, say nurses (BBC, Jan 16, 2025)
Patients are dying in corridors and pregnant women are miscarrying in side rooms as overwhelmed hospitals struggle to cope, nurses say.
The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) said evidence provided by more than 5,000 of its members across the UK this winter also showed cupboards, car parks, bathrooms and nursing stations were being turned into makeshift areas for patients.
Nurses warned such practices put patients at risk as staff were unable to access vital equipment such as oxygen, heart monitors and suction equipment, and did not have the time and space to provide CPR.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting said he agreed the problems should not be tolerated, but laid the blame on the previous government.

Influenza mentioned 5 times. COVID-19 not even once!

 

[dann]

USA:

Dear Colleagues:
We are writing to notify you that for the first time this season, Maryland's statewide combined - COVID, influenza and RSV - weekly respiratory virus-associated hospitalization rate (as calculated by CDC) exceeds 10 hospitalizations per 100,000 residents, due in large part to increasing COViD and flu infections. More specifically, the CDC data shows the Maryland combined hospitalization rate for the week ending on January 4 was 10.4
(...)
Clinicians should implement key measures to prevent and contain the spread of respiratory infections, such as:
* Universal masking in all patient care areas and patient-facing health care settings
* Vaccinate eligible patients and health care workers against COVD, influenza and RSV
* Treat with antivirals early and when appropriate
* Test and isolate infected individuals quickly
* Use Personal Protective Equipment appropriately
* Identify and adhere to standard, contact, droplet, and airborne precautions
* Optimize ventilation in your facility

Amazing! In Maryland, they seem to know that (universal!) masking, testing, isolating, vaccinating, medicating, and ventilating are all useful tools against airborne infectious diseases.
RFK Jr. and Jay Bhattacharia will have to come down hard on that kind of woke superstition.

 

[ahhell]

Can we call the pandemic over because its just hear to stay and we just need to get used to that?

 

[dann]

It's possible that you need to get used to it. I don't.
How can a pandemic that's alleged to be "just here to stay" be over? It sounds like a contradiction in terms: It's here so it no longer exists.
The cough that dare not speak its name!

 

[icerat]

Can we call the pandemic over because its just hear to stay and we just need to get used to that?

Problem is Covid isn't fitting into our "normal" disease picture. A pandemic is a global epidemic. A normal epidemic has a seasonality - like flu outbreaks in the winter.

Due to it's inherent high transmissibility and ability to quickly evolve and bypass antibodies, there is no seasonality. Waves wax and wane primarily as result of new variants and waning immunity rather than human behaviour and atmospheric factors. We're in a forever pandemic.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Wikipedia:

A pandemic (/pænˈdɛmɪk/ pan-DEM-ik) is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has a sudden increase in cases and spreads across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected individuals such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide.

IMHO covid is now at the same status as flu. Ie. not a pandemic.

 

[icerat]

Wikipedia:

IMHO covid is now at the same status as flu. Ie. not a pandemic.

Your own Wikipedia cite says otherwise - "they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide"

 

[dann]

American Airlines Flight Attendants Now Face Being Terminated If They Catch COVID-19 Under Harsh New Attendance Rules (PYOK, Jan 15, 2025)
If a flight attendant amasses too many points, then they face disciplinary action or even termination. Just ten points collected over a rolling 12-month period could result in a flight attendant losing their job. Going sick over critical periods like the Fourth of July weekend results in additional points being issued.
(...)
From now on, flight attendants will only be able to avoid having attendance points issued against them for going sick with COVID-19 if they successfully apply for a medical leave of absence or if the Family and Medical Leave Act applies.
A positive COVID-19 test will not, however, be enough evidence to apply for a leave of absence, and flight attendants will need to seek out a professional certificate from a healthcare provider.

Covid Numbers Rising But No Masks on Planes This Time Around (Live and Let's Fly, Sep 29, 2024)
Airlines were eager to remove restrictions that were not only difficult to enforce but also contributed to the[]/hilite negative perception [/hilite]of air travel. This strain on the industry, combined with the evolving data on mask efficacy, has played a role in airlines and governments resisting a return to mandatory mask-wearing policies.
(...)
For now, it appears that air travel will continue to operate in a mask-free environment, even as the virus continues to persist.

Not a COVID-19-free environment! Mask-free!
I guess that the strain that masks put on the industry is perceived to be worse than the strain put on the industry by passengers and staff getting infected. The latter is probably easier to ignore and deny, so .... don't look up!

ETA:

Friesein on X, Jan 16, 2025
We've reached the stage of the pandemic where employers wield the burden of COVID as a punitive measure against employees working in hubs of viral transmission.It's like punishing construction workers for getting lung cancer after working with asbestos without protection.

 

[dann]

Wikipedia:

IMHO covid is now at the same status as flu. Ie. not a pandemic.

I don't know how you measure status in this respect. Does this count?

D

Post in thread 'How do we know a pandemic's over?'

Jan 3, 2025

Another headline emphasizing the flu even though ....

US respiratory virus infections rise, led by flu (CIDRAP, Jan 3, 2024)
During Christmas week, respiratory virus activity continued a steady rise across much of the nation, with the largest spikes seen for flu. COVID-19 levels continue to climb from low levels, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity is still very high in many regions, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest updates.
(...)
The weekly percentage of deaths, however, is higher for COVID than for flu or...

• dann