How do we know a pandemic's over?

[dann]

Of Viruses and Men

As well as English, you don't quite get irony, do you?
We absolutely removed measles as a disease by herd immunity plus vaccination, and only a small group of idiots means it's still around.
Nice of you to walk back on your attempted and idiotic conflation with HIV, though.

The Atheist still needs some clarification, so I'll have to elaborate:

1) No, 'we' absolutely did no such thing. Herd immunity by infection didn't 'remove' measles at all. Measles was a childhood disease, which the vast majority of children were infected with and for the most part survived - with or without long-term complications. Unlike SARS-CoV-2, it usually leaves survivors with life-long immunity, which they pass on to their descendants.

2) However, as explained in post 1,069, which The Atheist doesn't seem to understand, the virus didn't mutate into a milder version of itself, which becomes clear when we look at people, who weren't exposed to the weeding-out process generation after generation: They still haven't got much natural immunity, but this is not because they are "only a small group of idiots." It's an evolutionary process, and even idiots can be protected by congenital immunity passed down by their parents.

3) As for unnatural immunity, i.e. the one induced by vaccines, it is true that "a small group" of antivaxxers help keep the virus alive. However, many of the people who don't vaccinate their children aren't idiots. They are just ignorant and sometimes disinformed by professional antivaxxers who ought to know better and often do.

4) In fact, fans of natural immunity come in all shapes and sizes. One of the proponents of natural immunity over vaccination in the case of COVID-19 is The Atheist.

This article explains it well. Notice again that the virus doesn't evolve to become benign. Instead, the virus weeds out people and lets only those with a level of natural immunity survive and procreate:

The history written in our genes
Like the rings of a tree, our genetic code can tell a story about events in our ancient past.
Random mutations to our genes mean some people are naturally more susceptible than others to being infected by viruses or developing serious symptoms of disease.
For instance, a recent study found that people who carry a cluster of genes inherited from Neanderthals some 50,000 years ago have a higher risk of developing severe COVID-19 symptoms.
But other mutations do the opposite, and can give us a survival edge when disease outbreaks occur.
And people with these gene variants are more likely to reproduce than others. “So what happens over several generations is the gene variants that are beneficial will rise in frequency," said study co-author Yassine Souilmi, from the University of Adelaide.
"And that leaves a very distinctive mark several generations later.”
But it takes a minimum of 500 to 1000 years for this signal of "adaptive markers" to show up in a population's genome, Dr Soulimi added.
Coronavirus epidemic broke out in East Asia around 25,000 years ago, gene study shows (ABC.net.au, June 25, 2024)

However, there is a reason why it won't happen with SARS-CoV-2 any time soon (soon, in this case, being "500 to 1000 years"): Unlike the measles virus, for the most part, it doesn't kill children. It kills mainly people beyond reproductive age, and thus it doesn't leave much of a "signal of "adaptive markers"."
For the same reason, the virus itself also doesn't gain much of an advantage by mutating into a benign version of itself. What we have seen so far is that it primarily becomes more contagious. I have lost count of how much more contagious it is nowadays than it was in early 2020, and I am not sure that anybody is still keeping track of it. Another change is that different variants appear to be better at infecting some organs rather than others. Omicron and its descendants seem to be better at infecting the gut and thus affect the gut microbiota, but it is not as if people still don't get scarred lungs, brains, hearts, kidneys etc.

Some of you may still imagine that SARS-CoV-2 is on the path to becoming benign because you have been fooled by people who ought to know better.
Beware of the people who preach the gospel even though they do know better. Some of them are well-paid for their efforts. Others are just part of a very large "group of idiots" who don't question what they are being told. Many of them are much like MAGA in this respect.


ETA: I think it is obvious that this never happened: "Nice of you to walk back on your attempted and idiotic conflation with HIV, though."
The Atheist sure enjoys his small pretend victories.

 

[The Atheist]

Meanwhile, in the real world the pandemic is so over Olympic athletes aren't barred from competing after a positive test.

I'll stick my 99.999% of people don't care.

Funny how you keep crying about media not covering covid then post links to media covering covid.

 

[dann]

“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.”

Reality is also that which, when you stop caring about it, doesn't go away.

One might expect atheists to be aware of this difference:
If you stop believing in or caring about God, He goes away.
If you stop believing in or caring about gravity, however, you are in for a very unpleasant surprise.

Some athletes (and not just athletes, but they are the ones the media cares about) were in for very unpleasant surprises in Paris.

Smart Christians understand this principle even if they decide to ignore it when it comes to their belief in God.
Dumb atheists don't understand this principle even though they find it glaringly obvious in the case of religion.

Funny how The Atheist keeps crying, panicking and screeching like a banshee about "walls of text" telling him about the reality that just won't go away no matter how often he tells us he doesn't believe in it - except when even he puts on a mask to protect his own health and the health of his son.

The real problem with the "media covering covid" is that it only does so whenever there's a new surge and it can no longer be ignored. This attitude may seem like a blessing to people who are in denial of the virus and pretend that "the pandemic is so over" if only they pretend not to care, but it isn't over to people who do care and sometimes have every reason to care but are taken in by the message of the reality deniers.

(I don't recommend this channel in general. There are better ones, for instance the one I recently recommended in the other thread about the COVID-19 pandemic.)

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

COVID-19 cases are spiking in the U.S. as a new variant spreads. Emergency room visits appear to be at the highest level since February, according to new data. Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, joins CBS News with more.

"These variants of the Omicron family, they are very, very contagious, so they are spreading very readily. Of course, we are helping that spread because we're traveling, going about our business. We're not social distancing anymore. And then on occasion, these viruses find someone who is older, frail, immune compromised, not up-to-date with the vaccines, and that's causing a spike in hospitalizations. (...) If you are six months or older in the United States, take advantage of this vaccine. Last fall, we under-vaccinated people. Lots of people did not come in for the vaccine. We are concerned that will happen again this year."
COVID cases spike as new variant strain spreads in U.S. (CBS News Health Watch on YouTube, Aug 8, 2024 - 4:03 min.)

 

[dann]

Oh ****!

Delta's back!

On July 31, Chinese media reported an increase in fever cases, and the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention identified the new COVID-19 XDV variant for the first time.Real video from China (X, Aug 1, 2024)

'Tested Positive Again' Becomes Trending Term in China as Sudden Death Cases Increase
Recently, the CCP admitted the emergence of XDV, a new mutated strain of COVID-19.
Social media in China is abuzz with "tested positive again, and again". People in many places are reporting that COVID has never stopped and sudden deaths are on the rise.
These are a few screenshots of people showing their test results from Shanghai, Ningbo, and other places. Some say quite a few friends tested positive again too. Some say that they have had a fever for 3 days and nights, etc.
On June 11, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) released an update on the COVID-19 infection situation in China, introducing the XDV variant for the first time.
The announcement stated that according to the latest version, China has classified the previously detected JN.1 variant of the novel coronavirus into 47 sub-lineages, including XDV, and has named and tracked XDV separately.
Jennifer Zeng (X, Aug 5, 2024)

Reports are emerging from scientists working at the Chinese Academy of Sciences at Peking University in Beijing and also from virologists at the Pasteur Institute in Shanghai that several provinces in China are facing a new resurgence of COVID-19 infections.
(...)
What is interesting is that it is not the KP variant such as KP.2 or KP.2.3 or KP.3 or its sub-lineage KP.1.1 that is driving new surge in China but rather a new recombinant Delta and Omicron variant that is named XDV.1.
(...)
What is concerning is that these new XVD.1 variants are evolving at a rather rapid rate and spawning numerous new sub-lineages with concerning mutations and the fact that the new XVD.1 variants are driving disease severity in those infected with it.
BREAKING! Parts of China witnessing a COVID-19 resurgence driven by a new recombinant Delta and Omicron variant, XDV.1 (Thailand Medical News, Aug 8, 2024)

From thread:

Local authorities have set up screening centers and temporary clinics to manage the situation and are advising those who test positive to isolate at home.
SARS‑CoV‑2 (COVID-19) (X, Aug 9, 2024)

Although there are no lockdowns in place, checkpoints have been established in Hubei to limit unnecessary travel and curb the spread of the virus.
SARS‑CoV‑2 (COVID-19) (X, Aug 9, 2024)

However, one reply claims this:

I travelled to Hubei two days ago and encountered ZERO checkpoints. There is no visible sign of an increase of infections here nor of anybody trying to curb the spread of the virus.
I will travel back to Guangdong tomorrow and will encounter zero checkpoints again
Bernard Marx aka Simon Hume (X, Aug 9, 2024)

 

[dann]

Hurrah! Pop the champagne! It has finally become ENDEMIC!

No, it hasn't, but it's what "Aron Hall, the deputy director for science at the CDC's coronavirus and other respiratory viruses division," claims in a new NPR article.
On X, it was described like this:

This may actually be the worst, most dangerous, most illiterate article about COVID-19 I’ve ever read. It’s nothing but a laundry list of laptop class minimizers and their nonsense, as well. Truly despicable.
Pandemic Index (X, Aug 10, 2024)

I tend to disagree. It's a little hyperbolic. The article also includes statements from the pandemic opposition, which is not always the case.

But let us begin with what exactly we are celebrating:

That means, essentially, that COVID is here to stay in predictable ways.
The classification doesn't change any official recommendations or guidelines for how people should respond to the virus. But the categorization does acknowledge that the SARS-CoV2 virus that causes COVID will continue to circulate and cause illness indefinitely, underscoring the importance of people getting vaccinated and taking other steps to reduce their risk for the foreseeable future.
Is COVID endemic yet? Yep, says the CDC. Here's what that means (NPR, Aug 9, 2024)

Of course, the second half of this contradicts The Atheist's definition of when the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is over, i.e. when everybody stops caring about getting vaccinated (he recommends that wonderful natural immunity from getting infected - again and again) and stops taking other precautions, i.e. pretends (or actually believes) that it's over.

But it is not as if the article isn't willing to accept that definition:

And even though COVID is still spreading widely, daily life has returned to normal for most people, even during this summer's wave of infections. On Wednesday, Noah Lyles competed in his Olympic race despite a symptomatic COVID infection and won a bronze medal. President Biden worked from home during his recent COVID infection.
COVID seems to be becoming a normal part of life.

In other words, behaving as if no potentially debilitating virus is spreading even though it obviously is is the new normal - for most people. Unlike the president, most people are encouraged to go to work while infected - working from home was for the 'pandemic years'. And unlike Olympic contestants, most people can't expect to be accompanied by officials who fill them with Paxlovid and transport them to and from work in wheelchairs.

Noah Lyles ran the 200m olympic final despite having an active COVID infection and afterwards needed a wheelchair to help get back off the track.
Noah Lyles Needs Wheelchair After Losing 200m Final with COVID (Dangerous?) (Brian Sutterer MD on YouTube, Aug 9, 2024 - 9:50 min.)

So welcome to the brave new world of the endemic!

As mentioned above, the article also cites other, more sensible voices: "But not everyone agrees."
And that is what makes it a far cry from the "worst, most dangerous, most illiterate article about COVID-19" that I've ever read.
I recommend the whole thing. It's not long.

ETA:

"endemic throughout the world"
My brother in Christ. We have a word for that.
Chris (X, Aug 10, 2024)

 

[The Atheist]

No, it hasn't, but it's what "Aron Hall, the deputy director for science at the CDC's coronavirus and other respiratory viruses division," claims in a new NPR article.

How entirely predictable you don't link to the article, which is about expert views, but do link to TwiXter, which is full of uneducated morons who support your panic.

From the NPR link you didn't provide:

“It is particularly a significant risk for those who are older and those who have underlying conditions. The good news is for most younger, otherwise healthier people this will be like having a flu-like infection.”

Oh noes, get the smelling salts... old, frail people are dying, possibly weeks early! This is tragic.

I think the good people at Johns Hopkins are a leetle bit more informed than some random panic-merchant on the internet:

“We’re going to have to continue to live with COVID,” says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “It’s one more thing people have to deal with. It’s another reason your kids might miss school or you might miss work or another thing to think about when planning gatherings. We’re stuck with it.”

IOW: deal with it.

 

[dann]

“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.”

Is A Covid-19 Outbreak Happening At The Paris Olympics? (Forbes, Aug 10, 2024)

Now, don't you start any rumors!
Anyway, if it is, it's the new normal.

Regardless, at this point, you still can't treat the SARS-CoV-2 the same as the flu and other respiratory viruses.

Oh yes, you can!
It isn't the same as the flu and other respiratory viruses, but you most certainly can treat it as if it were!

Without enough and reliable data, it's really difficult to tell when a Covid-19 outbreak is happening. You usually find out after the fact, after there are reports of more emergency room visits and hospitalizations.

So the current pandemic strategy is working, obviously!
Don't monitor the virus! Don't mention the virus! If at all it's just a virus, not the virus!

 

[dann]

Imagine how awful this would be if we were still in a PANDEMIC!

Yet again, hope turns out to be a very bad strategy:

“If you just talk about infections, this is probably going to end up becoming the largest summer wave we’ve had,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and former White House Covid-19 response coordinator. “It’s still not as big as the winter waves, but it is starting to get close.”
(...)
Andrew Pekosz, a virologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, didn't expect the summer waves to be so pronounced four years into Covid.
“I, and many other virologists, thought that we probably would see summer waves for maybe another one or two years, but we didn’t expect them to increase significantly,” he said. “We thought they would continue to just sort of be smaller and smaller as time went on, as we transition to what we hope is going to be just one winter surge of Covid cases per year.”
Is this the biggest Covid summer wave ever? A rise in Covid infections began in early June, and wastewater data from the CDC shows levels are still rising. (NBC News, Aug 9, 2024)

Maybe the next time, NBC News, you should consider talking to the virologists who were not at all surprised!
The article ends on a positive note as this kind of article has to:

Jha said that what happens this winter is impossible to predict but that there could be a silver lining to a large summer wave.
“A big summer wave tends to lead to a little bit of a smaller winter wave and vice versa, just because there’s a little bit more immunity in the population,” he said.

There would be a lot more immunity in the population if everybody was encouraged to get vaccinated. The big summer wave will just leave people more vulnerable to all the other winter infections.

And in even more positive news, the pandemic is also over for the immunocompromised!

Special Populations
The COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines discuss what clinicians need to consider when managing COVID-19 in pregnant people, people with HIV, and other special patient populations.
NIH COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines (NIH)

When you access the page, this message pops up: The NIH COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines website will be shut down on August 16
FLuQE off, NIH!

By the way, the new school year is just about to start. Do we still assume that children don't 'drive' the spread of the virus?

 

[dann]

The 'lympics

When Lyles collapsed, so did the credibility of those responsible for health at the Olympic Games
Noah Lyle's collapse with Covid: How not to manage health at the Olympics (Stat News, Aug 9, 2024)

“To be honest, I knew if I wanted to come out here and win, I had to give everything I had from the get-go,” he said. “I didn’t have any time to save energy. So that was kind of the strategy for today.”
After crossing the line third for the second straight Olympics, Lyles fell to his back and writhed on the ground trying to catch his breath. He got to one knee and stayed there for nearly 30 seconds before getting up, asking for water and getting to the wheelchair.
USOPC CEO on Lyles’ COVID: ‘Not everybody is going to make it through the games healthy’ (2News, WDTN, Aug 9, 2024)

Asthma didn’t stop Noah Lyles from taking on the 200 meter at the Paris Olympics, even after testing positive for COVID-19.
Despite fears of bronchitis and conflicting reports about his fever, Lyles won a bronze medal just two days after his positive test. He was concerned more about the virus’ severe symptoms than his temperature, which his coach Lance Brauman claimed rose to 102 degrees.
“Anytime I’ve had COVID, it’s never been about the temperatures. It’s always been about the body aches, the chills, the headaches and the cold,” Lyles told The Associated Press on Sunday. He spoke during an interview about his new Visa campaign involving his mother, Keisha Caine Bishop, who narrated a 30-second reel with her son.
Lyles said his temperature reached no higher than 99 degrees. The only reason he would have pulled out is if the symptoms of bronchitis had become worse.
Noah Lyles feared bronchitis after positive COVID test, but now pushes through with new career goals (AP, Aug 12, 2024)

Anytime? How many times would that have been? And yet, if he had 'died suddenly', the antivaxxers would no doubt have blamed it on the vaccines.

 

[dann]

Of Panic and Uneducated Morons

How entirely predictable you don't link to the article, which is about expert views, but do link to TwiXter, which is full of uneducated morons who support your panic.

From the NPR link you didn't provide:

Hilarious!
Here is a link to the post where I provided The Atheist and everybody else with a link to the NPR article that he claims I didn't link to: post 1,086
And as I usually do, I not only linked to the NPR article, I also included a quotation, highlighted some of that quotation and used bold for the headline! It's what I do.
This is what it looked like - just in case The Atheist still can't find it:

That means, essentially, that COVID is here to stay in predictable ways.
The classification doesn't change any official recommendations or guidelines for how people should respond to the virus. But the categorization does acknowledge that the SARS-CoV2 virus that causes COVID will continue to circulate and cause illness indefinitely, underscoring the importance of people getting vaccinated and taking other steps to reduce their risk for the foreseeable future.
Is COVID endemic yet? Yep, says the CDC. Here's what that means (NPR, Aug 9, 2024)

Is it clear now? Can everybody see it? Or does it - for whatever reason - only appear on my screen and apparently not on The Atheist's?

I also included this link from the same article, also with some of the text highlighted:

And even though COVID is still spreading widely, daily life has returned to normal for most people, even during this summer's wave of infections. On Wednesday, Noah Lyles competed in his Olympic race despite a symptomatic COVID infection and won a bronze medal. President Biden worked from home during his recent COVID infection.
COVID seems to be becoming a normal part of life.

I think that most people here are aware of how the forum, quoting and posting works. Maybe somebody has the patience to explain it to The Atheist. I don't!

 

[dann]

If you think that 17 people contracting Covid in a hospital in HK ...

Health experts say seven outbreaks involving 60 patients logged between late July and early August at local care homes, with more recorded later
Hong Kong records coronavirus outbreaks in care homes, hospitals after global surge: experts (South China Morning Post, Aug 10, 2024)

Maybe it's time to follow the example of young Hongkongers:
Why so many young Hongkongers continue to mask up long after Covid restrictions have eased (SCMP, April 3, 2024)

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

California:

"California interestingly and unfortunately is really a hotbed for COVID," said Dr. John Swartzberg, infectious disease professor at UC Berkeley Public Health.
Experts say while the rise in COVID cases appears close to plateauing, the start of school could potentially continue fueling the summer surge.
"With kids from preschool to grammar school to junior high and high school and college all going back now, that's going to exacerbate the problem so it's impossible to predict what's going to happen, but I expect we're going to see continued respiratory activity throughout the rest of this month and September," Dr. Swartzberg said.
Summer COVID surge could continue as school starts, Bay Area experts warn (ABC7 News, Aug 14, 2024)

I expect the same thing to happen in Denmark where the new schoolyear has also just begun.
Except that Danish parents probably won't be told this:

Many experts say kids should stay home if they're sick.
"If it turns out to be COVID, follow CDC guidelines, keep them home for five days and if they're better and no fever for 24 hours they can come back to school but wear a mask for the next five days," Dr Swartzberg said.

 

[dann]

We Want Them Infected

Another preventative measure suspended:

Employers are stepping up the number of days their employees need to show up in person, arguing it promotes stronger social connections, better collaboration and fairness in the workplace. A survey last year by the professional services firm KPMG found two-thirds of CEOs predicting a full return to office by 2026.
In the city of Philadelphia, it's already happening.
This summer, the city's new mayor Cherelle Parker made good on her promise to give residents a government they could "see, touch and feel," ordering all municipal employees back to the office five days a week.
Working from home allowed him to be a more engaged dad. Now it’s over (NPR, Aug 12, 2024)

I wasn't even aware that many people were still working from home.
It is another one of those things that should be taken into consideration when minimizers point to the numbers and claim that it's because SARS-CoV-2 has become benign.
So "see, touch and feel" and share aerosols is the new pandemic policy.
After all, you can't expect to learn to live with COVID-19 if you don't get COVID-19, can you?!

I personally wouldn't want to "see, touch and feel" the government, but maybe the one in Philly is different.

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

Russia (Google translation with a few guess-corrections):

Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Deputy President of the Russian Academy of Education Gennady Onishchenko during the press conference of the MIA Russia Today.
“Despite the fact that JN.1 is easily proceeding [I think this means that the acute stage of the infection is mild], like all (?!) Omicron, it has a feature - it resembles a gastrointestinal disorder. Patients may have vomiting, diarrhea. Some people think that they don't have covid and were simply poisoned,” said Gennady Onishchenko.
The academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences added that every fifth infected JN.1, despite the mild course of the disease, faces serious post-shaped complications-chronic inflammation, metabolic damage and complications of the cardiovascular system.
Expert: the Covid-19 variant JN.1 can be confused with food poisoning due to similar symptoms (icmos.rus, Aug 13, 2024)

Russia also appears to have a surge of COVID-19 infections.
Claiming that all Omicron is mild seems to a Russian version of C19 minimization.

 

[dann]

California:

... the start of school could potentially continue fueling the summer surge. ...

Man, this was faster than I expected:
In Alabama, this had already happened the day before:

JAG High School will be holding school virtually Wednesday and Thursday due to a COVID outbreak, the school announced in a release.
According to the school, they made the decision to transition to “asynchronous learning” due to a high number of the school’s staff currently being absent with COVID.
The school is currently planning to be virtual for two days, with plans to asses Thursday if the school can safely reopen on Friday.
Lessons and classwork will be available on Schoology. Teachers will also email assignments to students using their school email addresses.
The school will be sanitized and thoroughly cleaned before reopening to students. When the school reopens, masks and disinfectant wipes will be available for students and staff.
JAG High School goes to remote classes due to COVID outbreak (WFSA, Aug 13, 2024)

Masks will no doubt be a good idea. I'll refer people who doubt it to N95 Masks Nearly Perfect at Blocking COVID, UMD Study Shows. They should consider making this article part of the curriculum in Alabama.
It's a minor tragedy that managers of JAG High School seem to think that the school was so dirty that it gave their staff Covid. I know it's Alabama, but how can they still think that's the way people get Covid?

 

[dann]

Link to article in post 1,093: Summer COVID surge could continue as school starts, Bay Area experts warn (ABC News, Aug 14, 2024)

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

USA: "higher transmission than during 91% of the pandemic"

1/7
Let's zoom in on the current wave. We're at our highest level of transmission since the winter surge, with 1.3 million daily infections.
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (X, Aug 12, 2024)

2/7
Our graph of year-over-year transmission shows we have likely never had such high COVID transmission in mid-August.
Many classrooms will have a >50% chance someone is infectious. Expect K-12 schools and universities to be hotbeds for COVID outbreaks unless they are using serious multilayered mitigation.
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (X, Aug 12, 2024)

4/7
Here are some precise statistics on the current state of the pandemic in the U.S.
We are experiencing higher transmission than during 91% of the pandemic. 1 in 36 infectious. >1.3 million daily infections, nearly 10 million weekly infections, >400,000 resulting weekly Long COVID cases.
In a classroom of 25-30 students, there's over a 50% chance someone would be infectious.
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (X, Aug 12, 2024)

See graphs in tweets.

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

Denmark:
SARS-CoV-2 virus in wastewater appears to have decreased since mid July when it peaked in week 29. See the graph of Spildevandsovervågning, i.e. wastewater surveillance:
Overvågning af influenza, covid-19, RS-virus og andre luftvejssygdomme (SSI.dk, Aug 14, 2024)
Hospitalizations are down, too, 102 (six 0-2-year-olds), from 170 on July 24. And the percentage of positives is 12,6, down from 16.7% on July 24.
Luftvejsinfektioner

The death toll, however, is much higher than it was from early spring to the first half of summer. In mid spring and early summer, there were a few weeks with no C19 deaths. I wasn't sure if it might be due to delayed reporting, but that doesn't seem to have been the case. This week, Aug 5 to 12, there were 22 C19 deaths, much less than the 100 in one week in December, but this is still summer.

The Danish numbers have been conspicuously low in comparison to other countries. Does Denmark have a higher percentage of 65+ who get vaccinated (back in October!)? I don't know. It remains to be seen what happens now that most people are back in the cities after their summer vacations.

 

[dann]

Good news for Americans - and probably a little delayed for the rest of us ...

... in parts of the world where it's affordable:

NEW—The FDA is accelerating the timeline to greenlight updated #COVID19 vaccines for newer variants as soon as next week, amidst US’s largest summer wave since 2022.
--> Remember, Endemic is NOT = mild. Malaria and HIV are endemic in places.
#CovidIsNotOver
FDA may greenlight updated Covid-19 vaccines as soon as next week, sources say (CNN, Aug 17, 2024)
Eric Feigl-Ding (X Aug 17, 2024)

As for endemic/pandemic:

August 9th update:
Estimated daily infections reach 1 million. Remarkable infection rates for a summer surge. Only BA.2->BA.5 was higher in the 2022 summer.
* 1,000,000 new infections/day
* 1 in every 33 people currently infected
* 74% higher than 12 month avg.
JWeiland (X, Aug 9, 2024)

See JWeiland tweet from July 26.

 

[dann]

Bad news for Covid-conscious Swifties (see post 910):

The stadium's online guide warns fans not to bring a wide array of objects, including weapons, face masks, chains, chain wallets, studded jewellery or spurs
'Tay-gating' and mask ban among Wembley security measures (BBC, Aug 15, 2024)

I notice that all the other banned stuff is things that might inflict harm on other people. Face masks are the exact opposite.

Stevie Nicks 'salting the waves' at a Taylor Swift concert.

By the way, have any of you seen the freedumb-lovin' anti-maskers object to the many recent mask bans in the USA?
No, me neither!

 

[dann]

Largest summer Covid wave in at least two years

USA:

The US is in the midst of a significant Covid-19 wave, with viral activity levels in wastewater the highest they’ve been for a summer surge since July 2022, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s wastewater dashboard.
(...)
Health officials no longer track the coronavirus as closely as they did during the public health emergency, and there are no longer reliable estimates of daily or weekly new infections in the US. Instead, the nation is largely relying on wastewater levels to follow numbers of new cases.
(...)
The rise in cases is being driven by waning immunity in the population and a trio of new variants that have drifted enough from their parent virus, JN.1, to escape the ability of our antibodies to quickly neutralize them.
Cases are also climbing just as children head back to classrooms in many parts of the US, giving the infection plenty of opportunity to spread.
It’s not clear when this surge will peak and start to taper off.
The US is experiencing its largest summer Covid wave in at least two years (CNN, Aug 16, 2024)

Wastewater and COVID ED visits:

I've had people tell me that wastewater is a poor measure of COVID in a community. This is the entire US. I have multiplied the % of COVID ED visits by 10 to get the two measures on similar visual scales. If you are curious, the r-value is 0.71.
Michael Olesen (X, Aug 4, 2024)

See graph in tweet.

 

[The Atheist]

Yet again we have the example of what some panic merchant keyboard warrior spams and a world-leading virus and vaccine expert*.

The former can be seen over most of the past million words here, while the actual expert has this to say:

"Covid-19 is now endemic."

“The word [endemic] – [and] you ask 100 different scientists what the word means and you’ll get 99 different answers – but to me, it means this virus is now in a position to stay. It’s going to be with us forever.”

Oh, and old people are dying from it.


*Dr Richard Webby, infectious diseases researcher at St Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee and director of the WHO’s Collaborating Centre for Influenza studies.

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

It is only one week ago, in the post Of Panics and Uneducated Morons, that I had to correct The Atheist's post claiming that I didn't provide a link to an article even though I actually did provide it:

How entirely predictable you don't link to the article, which is about expert views, but do link to TwiXter, which is full of uneducated morons who support your panic.
From the NPR link you didn't provide:
Oh noes, get the smelling salts... old, frail people are dying, possibly weeks early! This is tragic.
I think the good people at Johns Hopkins are a leetle bit more informed than some random panic-merchant on the internet:
IOW: deal with it.

The Atheist probably couldn't see the link I provided because I also provided the name of the article and bolded it. And now he is back without providing a link to the article about New Zealander Dr Richard Webby, a "world-leading virus and vaccine expert," that hardly anyone outside of New Zealand has heard of, telling us his utterly subjective meaning of the word endemic: "... but to me, it means ..."


That The Atheist doesn't link to article shouldn't surprise anybody, but it's not what The Atheist usually does. That he also doesn't name the article is also in line with the way he usually presents news, so here you have both: Covid-19 will be with us forever - flu expert (RNZ/NZ Herald, Aug 18, 2024).
I got suspicious immediately when The Atheist presented him as a virus expert and not as a COVID-19 expert, which he obviously isn't.

That The Atheist leaves out not only the name of the article, the link to the article, and even the name of the media may be due to the introduction to the article. I think it probably is:

It may not be the topic of many conversations now, but more than 1500 people a week are still contracting Covid-19 in New Zealand and three or four people a day are dying from (!!!) it.

The virus is surging in 84 countries; and at the Olympic Games, dozens of athletes came down with it.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) is worried about dangerous new variants. It is a warning we have heard before – and it comes as vaccination rates wane globally.
Covid-19 will be with us forever - flu expert (RNZ/NZ Herald, Aug 18, 2024)

The Atheist also doesn't tell us what else Webby says:

“But you know, I’d say over the last ... two or three years, it really hasn’t dropped that much at all. It has maintained a level of disease–causing capacity that surprises me a little bit.”
As with any infectious disease, older people and those with underlying health issues were most at risk, he said.

I guess world-renowned Webby hasn't heard about another infectious disease, the one that is currently killing African children and was discovered in Sweden just a few days ago. However, it has me worried that a virus expert doesn't know about all the other viruses that kill children. I can see why an influenza expert may be focussed on his own field of expertise, but a virus expert ought to know about, at least, all the other viruses that kill children.


ETA: "WHO’s Collaborating Centre for Influenza studies" doesn't seem to exist. The correct title appears to be the "WHO Collaborating Center for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza in Animals and Birds."
This is Webby last year about bird flu:

"It's clear that this is a very, very successful virus for birds, and that almost excludes it from being a very, very successful virus in mammals," said Richard Webby, director of the WHO Collaborating Center for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza in Animals and Birds at St. Jude Children's Hospital.
Why public health officials are not panicked about bird flu (Reuters, Feb 24, 2023)

What a genius! What a brilliant man!

Bird flu sends its greetings and tells us not to worry: It's doing fine in dairy cows, cats and people!

 

[dann]

“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.”

What the panicking minimizers just don't get and probably never will:

Yep. I've never panicked about mpox, COVID, or any other illness, and I don't think anyone who follows me has either.
It's not living in fear, it's living in awareness.
Why You Don't Need to Panic About Mpox (OK Doomer, Aug 16, 2024)
T. Ryan Gregory (X, Aug 17, 2024)

 

[dann]

Noah Lyles

I’m just going to let you know, there were a lot of people in the village who had COVID that just didn’t say it. I’m just the most popular person who got COVID and actually said I had it.
Noah Lyles Details Racing With COVID At The Paris Olympics (CitiusMag, Aug 18, 2024)

Yes, I think most people can figure that out.

– Lyles told Nightcap that he has ended his season and will not contest any of the remaining Diamond League races.

But it was supposed to be a mere cold, wasn't it?!

 

[dann]

“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.”

The world has moved on.

Hong Kong (see post 1,092):

Covid-19 activity in Hong Kong is expected to see a “further increase,” local health authorities have warned. High-risk individuals – including pregnant women and healthcare workers – are urged to get vaccinated or receive a booster shot.
Hong Kong warns of further increase in local Covid-19 activity; high-risk groups urged to get vaccinated (Hong Kong Free Press/MSN, Aug 9, 2024)

Hong Kong to stop offering Sinovac Covid vaccine when current stocks expire in October (SCMP, Aug 9, 2024)

It is time for Hongkongers to consider another Covid booster (SCMP, Aug 14, 2024)

Hong Kong welcomed over 3.9 million visitors in July, according to provisional figures, a 9 per cent increase compared to same month last year.
Mainland China continued to be the city’s largest source market, with 80% of visitor arrivals from across the border, the Hong Kong Tourism Board (HKTB) announced on Thursday.
Hong Kong welcomes 3.9 million visitors in July, 24% less than before Covid-19 pandemic (Hong Kong Free Press/MSN, Aug 16, 2024)

'Before the pandemic'.

 

[dann]

From post 1,104:

“But you know, I’d say over the last ... two or three years, it really hasn’t dropped that much at all. It has maintained a level of disease–causing capacity that surprises me a little bit.”
As with any infectious disease, older people and those with underlying health issues were most at risk, he said.

I guess world-renowned Webby hasn't heard about another infectious disease, the one that is currently killing African children and was discovered in Sweden just a few days ago. However, it has me worried that a virus expert doesn't know about all the other viruses that kill children. I can see why an influenza expert may be focussed on his own field of expertise, but a virus expert ought to know about, at least, all the other viruses that kill children.

I should have added this link to make it clear which virus I was talking about.

Children are particularly vulnerable: around two-thirds of infections in the DRC are in people under the age of 15.
Growing mpox outbreak prompts WHO to declare global health emergency (Nature, Aug 13, 2024)

 

[dann]

Paralympics

"I tested positive for Covid"- Hunter Woodhall gives a heartbreaking update ahead of the commencement of the Paralympics (Sportskeeda, Aug 17, 2024)

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

USA:

PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, August 19, 2024

We're at 1.3 million infections/day in the U.S.
This is the highest known transmission during back-to-school season all-time.
An estimated 1 in 24 people in the West region are actively infectious.
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (X, Aug 19, 2024)

Graphs: Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative - COVID-19 Forecasting Model (PANDEMIC MITIGATION COLLABORATIVE)

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

California:

California’s relentless FLiRT-fueled COVID surge is continuing to spawn infections at a dizzying rate, with coronavirus levels in wastewater reaching some of the highest levels seen since 2022.
(...)
For the week that ended Aug. 10, coronavirus levels in sewage were 84% of last winter’s peak in California, according to estimates posted Friday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Coronavirus levels in wastewater have already blown past the peaks for the prior two summers, as well as the winter of 2022 to 23.
“It’s so surprising to me that it hasn’t gone down yet,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious diseases specialist at UC San Francisco. “It’s a little bit more of a prolonged season for California.”
‘A much more infectious’ COVID variant fueling California’s relentless surge (Los Angeles Times, Aug 19, 2024)

Eric Topol objects, but only to the name given to the currently dominant variants in the article:

Front page @latimes
KP.3.1.1. is not a FLiRT variant
https://latimes.com/california/stor...sens-fueled-by-a-much-more-infectious-variant @ronlin
(That's the problem. No R346T mutation. Instead there’s the Q493E mutation in KP.3 and, added to that, the S31 deletion in KP.3.1.1.)
Eric Topol (X, Aug 19, 2024)

T.Ryan Gregory adds: "Thus, not FLiRT but DeFLuQE."

Latest wastewater data on the current wave
Shows signs of peaking in all regions except Northeast
Eric Topol (X, Aug 19, 2024)

See graph in tweet.

 

[dann]

Some people will argue the pandemic isn't over in 3...2...1...

USA:

JUST IN: U.S. reports more than 1,000 new COVID deaths this week, highest since March
BNO News (X, Aug 19, 2024)

 

[novaphile]

USA:

South Australia:

Just heard an odd announcement on the local news service:

"Red Cross are requesting that all donors come forward to make donations. Currently one in five donation appointments are being cancelled because of cold or flu-like symptoms, and the blood bank is experiencing severe shortages as a result."

In my mind, I was imagining the announcer thinking:

"Don't say CoVid, don't say CoVid, don't say CoVid."

 

[dann]

Another problem with this disease and blood donors: the persistence of the virus in the body.
Prevalence of persistent SARS-CoV-2 in a large community surveillance study (Nature, Feb 21, 2024).

I don't know what they do to avoid using virus-contaminated blood - other than ask people with Long Covid not give blood. Do they screen for the virus? (the donors and/or the blood)

And in the case of cancellations "because of cold or flu-like symptoms": What about people who are infected but asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic or even post-symptomatic?

 

[dann]

China (see posts 1,085, 1,092 and 1,097):
July sees rise in COVID-19 cases in China; experts dismiss concerns saying no major strain on population, healthcare (GlobalTimes, Aug 10, 2024)
Difficult to know what's going on. Various voices in the article.

Russia:

Russia: There are no COVID-19 vaccines left in Novosibirsk
'The region has run out of Covid vaccine, and now it is impossible to get vaccinated against the disease.' http://sib.fm
https://sib.fm/news/2024/08/18/v-novosibirske-ne-ostalos-vaktsiny-ot-covid-19
CoronaHeadsUp (X, Aug 19, 2024)

Poland:

Poland: 'We don't test, so we don't officially record an increase in infections'
"Meanwhile, over the last 24 hours, 1,828 official tests for COVID-19 were performed, of which 853 had a positive result."
Science in Poland
https://naukawpolsce.pl/aktualnosci...c-oficjalnie-nie-odnotowujemy-wzrostu-zakazen
CoronaHeadsUp (X, Aug 19, 2024)

 

[dann]

Why Brits younger than 65 will have to rely on herd immunity by infection from now on

Welcome to the Nordic version of immunization against SARS-CoV-2: We Want Them Infected!

Advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) on the COVID-19 vaccination programme has continued to adapt as the country has transitioned from pandemic response to recovery. In 2024, the current situation is one of very high levels of population immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the emergence of new Omicron sub-variants that are not associated with increased disease severity compared with earlier variants.
(...)
Advice
The primary aim of the national COVID-19 vaccination programme remains the prevention of severe illness (hospitalisations and deaths) arising from COVID-19. As currently available COVID-19 vaccines provide limited protection against mild and asymptomatic disease, the focus of the programme is on offering vaccination to those most likely to directly benefit from vaccination, particularly those with underlying health conditions that increase their risk of hospitalisation following infection. For autumn 2024, JCVI advises that a COVID-19 vaccine should be offered to:

* adults aged 65 years and over
* residents in a care home for older adults
* persons aged 6 months to 64 years in a clinical risk group (as defined in tables 3 and 4 of the COVID-19 chapter of the Green Book)
JCVI statement on the COVID-19 vaccination programme for autumn 2024, 8 April 2024 (Gov.uk, Department of Health and Social Care, Aug 2, 2024)

Notice how it doesn't mention that 0-2-year-olds are a high-risk group for hospitazations. Instead, it uses the fact that recent variants don't result in "increased disease severity" (as if the already existing disease severity isn't bad enough) and that the vaccines don't protect entirely against getting infected, i.e. only (!) "provide limited protection against mild and asymptomatic disease" but still provide protection against severe disease and death.
It ignores that a considerable number of people under 65 and not in a "clinical risk group" still do get seriously ill, and that a considerable number of people who don't get ill enough to be hospitalized nevertheless develop severe sequelae from (sometimes 'mild') COVID-19 infections.

Dan O'Hara has a very good thread on X about this:

I've been trying to make sense of the reasoning of the JCVI in its decisions about the Autumn 2024 covid vaccination offer.
(JCVI's the UK authority who recommend who to offer vaccinations to).
1/21
Dan O'Hara (X, Aug 18, 2024)

Dan is not an epidemiologist, virologist, biologist or health-care worker, but I only found his thread because it was retweeted by Jonathan Howard from Science-Based Medicine and the We Want Them Infected podcast series and book.

Dan goes through the reasoning behind this new policy and concludes:

The reasoning is often circular especially when they consider HCWs, or dependent on the exclusion of critical issues such as infection control or NHS business continuity.
And the unspoken assumption unpinning all is the one printed here: the suggestion of herd immunity.
Dan O'Hara (X, Aug 18, 2024)

The thread is too long for me to post it all here, but it's a pretty fast read and has several graphs illustrating the faulty reasoning behind the JCVI statement, for instance the comparison of the number of cases before and after testing was more or less halted, April 1, 2023.
Since the JCVI decision was made at a meeting on Feb 27, 2024, it goes without saying that it can't have taken the numbers from the summer surge this year into account.

 

[The Atheist]

Notice how it doesn't mention that 0-2-year-olds are a high-risk group for hospitazations.

Completely false.

Show evidence to support that ridiculous claim or retract it.

How many kids are in hospital with covid is irrelevant - they probably caught it there.

Show evidence that covid is causing hospitalisation of 0-2 year olds.

I am not holding my breath for it, and I just know you're going to post another irrelevant wall of text instead of posting evidence, so away you go.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

Health experts say seven outbreaks involving 60 patients logged between late July and early August at local care homes, with more recorded later
Hong Kong records coronavirus outbreaks in care homes, hospitals after global surge: experts (South China Morning Post, Aug 10, 2024)

Maybe it's time to follow the example of young Hongkongers:
Why so many young Hongkongers continue to mask up long after Covid restrictions have eased (SCMP, April 3, 2024)

60 people caught it in care homes? So what?

When in the rest of Hong Kong, thousands of people would have been infected and reinfected during those months, probably tens of thousands, why wouldn't those in care homes also be catching it?

Despite your denials, the world HAS moved on.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

Hong Kong (see post 1,092):



Hong Kong to stop offering Sinovac Covid vaccine when current stocks expire in October (SCMP, Aug 9, 2024)

It is time for Hongkongers to consider another Covid booster (SCMP, Aug 14, 2024)


'Before the pandemic'.

Yep, the world, including Hong Kong has moved on. Nothing in your links gainsays that.

 

[dann]

Completely false.
Show evidence to support that ridiculous claim or retract it.
How many kids are in hospital with covid is irrelevant - they probably caught it there.
Show evidence that covid is causing hospitalisation of 0-2 year olds.
I am not holding my breath for it, and I just know you're going to post another irrelevant wall of text instead of posting evidence, so away you go.

The Atheist doing his best to keep up appearances:

1) I have recently mentioned the number of C19 hospitalizations of 0-2-year-olds in Denmark and linked to the site where the numbers can be found. There will be new numbers tomorrow at 14:00 CEST.

2) I would like to see The Atheist's evidence to support his idea that "they probably caught it there," but it is interesting that The Atheist seems to think that the spread is so out of control in pediatric hospitals that babies are infected to this extent.

3) I would also like to see The Atheist's evidence for whatever he thinks causes the hospitalizations (and subsequent infections) of babies.

4) And then I would very much like to see The Atheist's retraction of all the absurd lies that I have retracted for him. He could start with the accusation that I don't link to articles that I have presented in this thread. Since then, I have criticized him for doing the thing that he accused me of doing: not linking to articles. Is he able to as much as acknowledge that he is just plain wrong based on the ample documentation I have provided?
Probably not.

Instead, he delivers this his most recent post bereft of facts and documentation.

It is what we have come to expect of him, and in this respect he lives up to the expectations.