[Split Thread] How are MDC protocols designed and carried out? (Split from FAQ thread)

[DevilsAdvocate]

A few years ago, there was a fascinating program on TV, and I bet many of you know what I'm talking about: several people who claimed to be "psychics" (or whatever they called themselves) were put to a direct test by James Randi, with the possibility of winning a pile of money (probably the million dollars in the JREF test)! Each one had a different claimed ability, so their tests all differed a bit in what they did. It was a long time ago and I'm forgetting the vast majority of them, but the one that I remember the best was this very pretty woman who was given a bunch of keys (or something similar) on a chain; she had claimed that she could "sense" something about the keys (I'm vague nowadays about the details), just by looking at them, or feeling them, etc. So as part of the test, she was required to "sense" those keys, and reveal some specific information about them. The woman FAILED to do so, of course, as did all the other people who took part in the tests on that show. The look on the poor woman's face, though, distressed me very deeply: she appeard to be SHOCKED that she was unable to identify the keys! She just couldn't believe that she had failed!!

But another thing that made an impression on me was that all the people on the show had all been given ENORMOUSLY difficult challenges, for each of their "tests". Was it fair to give them tests that had a chance of success of only 1 in HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS, by the normal route? What if some of them had a genuine "psychic" ability, but their natural nervousness and trepidation (especially on a TV show) prevented them from fully demonstrating it? It just didn't seem very fair to me, especially that poor woman who was so SHOCKED at her lack of success! I was determined that if I ever had a chance to talk to people on a forum like this, I would have them explain exactly how such tests are designed and conducted, and how their "success" is determined.

I wish I knew what show is being talked about here. The only thing I can match it to is the 1991 TV series “James Randi - Psychic Investigator”. There was an episode where a psychic was challenged to match 5 setd of keys to 5 sets of wristwatches. You can view it here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6p0HgzFHvo&feature=relmfu

The test begins at about 8:30 and continues on part 14.

The tests done on the series were just demonstrations for television. These were not Challenge test (which would have been the $100,000 challenge at the time, it wasn’t bumped up to $1 million until 1996).

There were no pass/fail conditions for the tests on the show. Randi explained that the demonstration test on the show were not sufficient to either prove or disprove an ability. He simply carried out small tests, explained the odds of getting results by chance, and asked people to make up their own minds.

The test, including the test with the keys was far from being ENORMOUSLY difficult. Randi says that the protocol was worked out with the psychic before the show and the psychic says it is something she can do. Randi also says that if she gets all 5 right it might indicate a psychic ability, but if she only gets 1 or 2 right it is what would be expected just by chance. Randi explains that the odds of getting all five right simply by chance is 1 in 120, and that by chance alone she should get 1 of the 5 right.

She got 1 of the 5 right. She did look “SHOCKED at her lack of success” and even perhaps a bit upset.

 

[Ladewig]

I wish I knew what show is being talked about here. The only thing I can match it to is the 1991 TV series “James Randi - Psychic Investigator”. There was an episode where a psychic was challenged to match 5 setd of keys to 5 sets of wristwatches. You can view it here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6p0HgzFHvo&feature=relmfu

The test begins at about 8:30 and continues on part 14.

The tests done on the series were just demonstrations for television. These were not Challenge test (which would have been the $100,000 challenge at the time, it wasn’t bumped up to $1 million until 1996).

There were no pass/fail conditions for the tests on the show. Randi explained that the demonstration test on the show were not sufficient to either prove or disprove an ability. He simply carried out small tests, explained the odds of getting results by chance, and asked people to make up their own minds.

The test, including the test with the keys was far from being ENORMOUSLY difficult. Randi says that the protocol was worked out with the psychic before the show and the psychic says it is something she can do. Randi also says that if she gets all 5 right it might indicate a psychic ability, but if she only gets 1 or 2 right it is what would be expected just by chance. Randi explains that the odds of getting all five right simply by chance is 1 in 120, and that by chance alone she should get 1 of the 5 right.

She got 1 of the 5 right. She did look “SHOCKED at her lack of success” and even perhaps a bit upset.

I find your post exceptionally intriguing.

Thank you.