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H5N1: The Next Pandemic?

Seems like it's only a matter of time now. Clearly mammals are susceptible. The only question is, how deadly will it be?

Yet another good reason to Pasteurize milk.

Yeah, in fact mammals have been susceptible for quite a while now.

At least 26 species of mammals have also been infected. In Denmark, millions of mink were culled after bird flu spread through fur farms. In France, a captive bear was found to be infected, as have free-ranging bears in Canada. Among wild mammals, scavengers and marine mammals have been particularly badly hit. The virus has killed ten of thousands of seals and sea lions from Quebec down to Chile, Argentina and Peru - with concerns rising that it may be adapting to spread more easily between mammals and then back to birds.

In Antarctica's Northern Weddell Sea, Begeman and her colleagues sampled around 120 carcasses from different species, including several Antarctic fur seals. The virus was detected at four of the 10 sites they visited.

Link

And we have seen that humans have also been infected.

It might not be long before "hold on to your butts" time.
 
Seems like it's only a matter of time now.

That seems to be the consensus, which is somewhat disturbing.

The only question is, how deadly will it be?

Even if the fatality rate is only 10% of the current rate of over 50% we'd have a very bad time of it. Covid was around 0.5% fatality and ten times that is going to make things very messy.

The real question is how fast we can supply vaccines, because even a 5% fatality rate is going to get all Captain Trips very quickly. If it holds at 50% we're in deep ****.

It might not be long before "hold on to your butts" time.

My survival kit is packed and my spot in the Ureweras marked out.

Given that a pandemic plan for the next pandemic doesn't even exist, I think we'd be in for some very interesting times.
 
Meanwhile in the USA. Donald Trump stated the if he is elected in November, he will again close the pandemic office that President George W. Bush started.
 
Seems like it's only a matter of time now. Clearly mammals are susceptible. The only question is, how deadly will it be?

Weird. A(H5N1) has been detected in various cows, cats, etc.in multiple states yet only two human cases in the USA have been identified. Both recovered. The first person reported fatigue for a few days. The last person's only symptom was red eyes. Odd that it so poorly transmits in humans.
 
Weird. A(H5N1) has been detected in various cows, cats, etc.in multiple states yet only two human cases in the USA have been identified. Both recovered. The first person reported fatigue for a few days. The last person's only symptom was red eyes. Odd that it so poorly transmits in humans.

And odd that it produces such minimal effects (at least for the tiny sample available.)
 
Odd that it so poorly transmits in humans.

Odd or lucky?

The 1917 'flu probably jumped from birds to pigs to humans after a genetic shift and we're busy creating the same level of evolutionary pressure in crowded, unsanitary conditions in cities right now.

Whether or not H5N1 ever makes that shift is moot, but one thing I am sure of, if it does, it's going to happen really, really fast.
 
Odd or lucky?....

Whether or not H5N1 ever makes that shift is moot, but one thing I am sure of, if it does, it's going to happen really, really fast.

Doubtful. It will take some time circulating in humans before it becomes adapted to rapid human to human spread.

H5N1 has been simmering since 1997 in Hong Kong.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00050459.htm
Editorial Note: The cases described in this report represent the first documented human infections with avian influenza A(H5N1) virus. One of the most important aspects of the investigation is to determine the source of infection and mode of transmission. However, this effort is complicated by the high prevalence of exposure to live poultry among residents of Hong Kong.
 
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.... Odd that it so poorly transmits in humans.
What it needs to spread more quickly human to human is for a lot of virus to be shed from the upper airway. Why it didn't spread rapidly back in 1997 was that it was shed from the lower airway of chickens (and the GI tract) resulting in much lower viral loads spreading to humans. The persons who got infected tended to be in close contact with poultry. And a few people were in the same households as others who were infected, IOW close contact.

It has taken quite a number of years to get this far and I suspect that means it could indeed start spreading person to person soon. We may not see it circulating in people if that happens in parts of the world with poor public health infrastructure. Given all the crowded refugee camps and movement around the world we are set up for such a disaster.
 
Michael Osterholm of CIDRAP, has an update:

Ep156 Osterholm Update: H5N1: An Impending Crisis?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWg4pUI3yN8

He covers the long history of H5N1 and its current flare up amongst a range of mammals.

Summary: Nothing to worry about now (except don't drink raw milk) but monitor closely.
 

On Wednesday, Australia confirmed its first human case of the bird flu after a child returning from overseas tested positive for the H5N1 strain.

"The human case in Australia was a traveller from a country where H5N1 is circulating. No other cases have been identified through contact tracing, and although they developed severe symptoms, they have since recovered. This is a common scenario for human cases of bird flu - sporadic, severe infections with no evidence of sustained transmission."

I assume they mean some sort of animal-to-human transmission, not human-to-human. I.e. "no evidence of sustained transmission" means no evidence of sustained transmission from people to other people, which would possibly be the start of a pandemic situation.
 
I assume they mean some sort of animal-to-human transmission, not human-to-human. I.e. "no evidence of sustained transmission" means no evidence of sustained transmission from people to other people, which would possibly be the start of a pandemic situation.

There have been cases of human - human transmission, but only a couple, according to CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-in-humans.htm
 
Dr Rick Bright, whose credentials are pretty good, having been fired by Trump, but also having been director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, says this:

...despite the low number of cases, it is possible the virus could be mutating, making it better able to infect humans.

In an interview with PBS, he said: 'I'm more worried right now about the information and the data that we're missing.

'We're being blindfolded in this battle right now, and I'm really concerned that the virus is winning the game and getting ahead of us.'

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/health/other/doctor-issues-dire-bird-flu-warning/ar-BB1osjKT
 
I see a lot of people have contracted H5N1 recently in USA, thanks to the dairy-cow outbreak reaching poultry farms.

The interesting factor is we're not seeing the deaths that were associated with H5N1 in Asia, with cases being classified as mild: https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-...ird-flu-outbreak-scientists-see-growing-risks

Maybe it's most like the Mexican 'flu that spread fast but wasn't very harmful?

Of the 11 people in the USA that have gotten H5N1, none were human->human. That's encouraging. Also curious is that so many have conjunctivitis.

https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situat...tates to monitor people with animal exposures.
 
(going for the easy joke)
Great... Flying bears, that's all we need.

Fortunately now most countries have a template in place for dealing with a pandemic. Whether people will adhere to any new edicts is another story.

Oh that's all we need! Bad enough that, in the US, the 2nd amendment guarantees the right to arm bears. Now, not only will they be armed, they will be able to fly.
 
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This is the sort of speciesist statement I have come to expect.
Investigation for potential cases of human -> human H5N1 transmission, with a handful of cases in Missouri suspected of being infected by a patient.

Testing to come, but all mild cases.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-09-potential-human-bird-flu-transmission.html
It may be mild for hominids but mortality is high (>50%) in cats.


An animal sanctuary in Shelton, Wash., is under quarantine after a bird flu outbreak killed 20 big cats at the facility over the past month.

The Wild Felid Advocacy Center of Washington called the deaths "heartbreaking," confirming the virus has claimed more than half its animals, including four cougars and a half-Bengal tiger, since late November.
 
We (UK NHS) have just been circulated an alert to watch out for Americans arriving in the country with fevers, on the basis of the recent death of an American from H5N1. I wonder if there is more going on we don't know about since CDC silenced?
 
We (UK NHS) have just been circulated an alert to watch out for Americans arriving in the country with fevers, on the basis of the recent death of an American from H5N1. I wonder if there is more going on we don't know about since CDC silenced?
Be safe! Stop all Americans arriving at your borders! Build many walls now!
 
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