• Due to ongoing issues caused by Search, it has been temporarily disabled
  • Please excuse the mess, we're moving the furniture and restructuring the forum categories
  • You may need to edit your signatures.

    When we moved to Xenfora some of the signature options didn't come over. In the old software signatures were limited by a character limit, on Xenfora there are more options and there is a character number and number of lines limit. I've set maximum number of lines to 4 and unlimited characters.

H5N1: The Next Pandemic?

angrysoba

Philosophile
Joined
Dec 8, 2009
Messages
37,766
Location
Osaka, Japan
Sorry, I know the title is a bit click-baity, BUT... there are a few concerning developments that bird flu (AKA: H5N1) is getting closer to having pandemic potential.

Nature

An outbreak of avian influenza on a mink farm in Spain provides the strongest evidence so far that the H5N1 strain of flu can spread from one infected mammal to another.

The outbreak of H5N1 flu, described in a report in Eurosurveillance on 19 January1, occurred on an American mink (Neovison vison) farm in Carral in October 2022. Genetic sequencing showed that the animals were infected with a new variant of H5N1, which includes genetic material from a strain found in gulls, as well as a genetic change known to increase the ability of some animal-flu viruses to reproduce in mammals.

The new variant puts bird flu in “uncharted territory”, says Wendy Puryear, a virologist at Tufts University in Medford, Massachusetts. Researchers have warned that, without careful precautions, the disease might eventually spread among people.

There have also been some recent cases of bears with avian flu. Not sure if there is evidence one way or another if any of them caught it from each other.

Smithsonian

Amid an avian flu outbreak that’s decimating wild and domestic bird populations, scientists have documented the first cases in wild grizzly bears. The three bears, which were euthanized last fall in Montana, later tested positive for the virus, the state’s Fish, Wildlife and Parks department announced in a statement last week.

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus has previously been found in a fox and a skunk in Montana, as well as in other mammals such as raccoons, black bears and coyotes in other areas of the country. These are the first recorded cases among wild grizzlies, per the department.
 
Sorry, I know the title is a bit click-baity, BUT... there are a few concerning developments that bird flu (AKA: H5N1) is getting closer to having pandemic potential.

Nature



There have also been some recent cases of bears with avian flu. Not sure if there is evidence one way or another if any of them caught it from each other.

Smithsonian

(going for the easy joke)
Great... Flying bears, that's all we need.

Fortunately now most countries have a template in place for dealing with a pandemic. Whether people will adhere to any new edicts is another story.
 
... Fortunately now most countries have a template in place for dealing with a pandemic. ...
Hah!

COVID is airborne. That paradigm shift is hard for healthcare professionals to get used to even now.

Most influenza is droplet spread. There have been a couple times in history when it looks like it had been airborne but for the most part even H5N1 HPAI is likely to be droplet spread.


The healthcare community has jumbled those 2 routes of transmission often with ineffective precautions for either.

The saving grace: it will be easier for the healthcare community to go back to implementing droplet precautions. And the virus should be detected in the human population early on if those cases occur in a country with a decent public health infrastructure.

But we're doomed if the jump gets hold in a country that does not detect it and doesn't isolate the cases early enough to slow its adaptation to humans.

We've already had cases of the H5N1 HPAI in humans and it spread to family members. What it didn't do is become well adapted thereby producing enough viral shedding to spread to casual contacts.

We can hope for the best.
 
Last edited:
Sorry, I know the title is a bit click-baity, BUT... there are a few concerning developments that bird flu (AKA: H5N1) is getting closer to having pandemic potential.

I posted on this a while back, when scientists first noticed the genetic shift making it more likely to infect mammals. The fact that it's spread among mink is a further alarm, because mustelids and humans have some recent history with viruses...

I'm packing my survival kit, because having seen how pathetically we've dealt with covid, I'd have very little hope of us dealing with something as deadly as HPAI H5N1 might be.
 
It's been monitored for a while. It's slowly setting the stage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_spread_of_H5N1
The global spread of H5N1 influenza in birds is considered a significant pandemic threat. While other H5N1 influenza strains are known, they are significantly different on a genetic level from a recent, highly pathogenic, emergent strain of H5N1, which was able to achieve hitherto unprecedented global spread in 2008.[1]
 
Having just got through NCoV-19 and a surge of flu A H1N1 I will be really pissed off if we have a pandemic of A H5N1, not sure the world economies will cope that well either.
 
Having just got through NCoV-19 and a surge of flu A H1N1 I will be really pissed off if we have a pandemic of A H5N1, not sure the world economies will cope that well either.

Not only that, but the anti-vaxx lobby are in full-scale pandemic preparedness mode meaning that they will be able to convince millions of people that it is all a hoax and/or it was a bioweapon created by the WEF in Ukraine in Zelensky's biolabs, the vaccines are bad, and that ivermectin will be the only treatment.
 
Having just got through NCoV-19 and a surge of flu A H1N1 I will be really pissed off if we have a pandemic of A H5N1, not sure the world economies will cope that well either.

If H5N1 becomes a pandemic and replicates the death rate seen so far, the world economies won't exist.
 
Not only that, but the anti-vaxx lobby are in full-scale pandemic preparedness mode meaning that they will be able to convince millions of people that it is all a hoax and/or it was a bioweapon created by the WEF in Ukraine in Zelensky's biolabs, the vaccines are bad, and that ivermectin will be the only treatment.

That means we're ******, basically.
 
I just watched a HBO documentary. The next pandemic will be fungus:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_of_Us_(TV_series)

All jokes aside, while they can't (yet) cause a pandemic, the threat of widespread fungal diseases is real.

There’s Cryptococcus neoformans, a soil yeast that can be inhaled by humans, where it spreads from the lungs to the blood and brain. It preys on the immunocompromised, particularly those with HIV; mortality is between 41 and 61 per cent.

Candida auris is a type of yeast that can infect the blood, bones and organs and which has an extremely high mortality rate of between 29 and 53 per cent. The fungus has been responsible for several hospital outbreaks, with infection trends increasing across the world; it is resistant to many of the antifungal medications we have. This fungus has been labelled the new “fungal superbug” because of its resistance and the fact that many of the people it infects have just undergone surgery.

https://www.theage.com.au/healthcar...-how-real-is-the-science-20230127-p5cfux.html

And climate change isn't helping.

But the temperature gap keeping us safe from fungi is small, just a few degrees. And the world has already warmed 1.5 degrees since pre-industrial times. As fungi mutate to tolerate higher heat levels, a range of new environments open up for them, including human beings, who are full of the sugars they love to consume. “The reason we’re seeing these outbreaks of fungal infection that we did not see 20 years ago is really because of global heating,” says Traven.

A bit off topic but interesting to me.
 
Last edited:
Yeah, I'd seen that.

The number of species of mammals catching H5N1 is getting to the disturbing stage.

Luckily, having the benefit of the covid pandemic, it'll be easy to get people to mask up and follow anti-infection guidelines, and nobody will turn up to work with it.

(Probably better to hold a mask over your face than your butt, but you can't be too careful, I guess)
 
Yeah, I'd seen that.

The number of species of mammals catching H5N1 is getting to the disturbing stage.

Luckily, having the benefit of the covid pandemic, it'll be easy to get people to mask up and follow anti-infection guidelines, and nobody will turn up to work with it.

(Probably better to hold a mask over your face than your butt, but you can't be too careful, I guess)

Unfortunately, in the US, it's become so politicized to mask or take any precautions that it isn't "easy " to get anyone to do anything! :mad:
 
Unfortunately, in the US, it's become so politicized to mask or take any precautions that it isn't "easy " to get anyone to do anything! :mad:

That comment was 100% tongue-in-cheek.

It's not just USA. I'd say societal tolerance for measures against pandemics is at an all-time low everywhere in the world.
 
How ironic. Liberal individualism making it harder to stop the next pandemic.
You mean Libertarians? :confused:

Try this one, it's a tad more specific: the alt-right seeing no value in funding things for the community good cut funds for public health everywhere. Without public health infrastructure to detect and contain the spread of HPAI or other PPPs it is estimated that as one of these potentially pandemic pathogens spreads undetected for only a couple weeks it is likely too late to nip such an outbreak in the bud.
 
Scientists testing a dozen people for avian influenza in Cambodia have said the father of an 11-year-old who died from the disease is infected.

Reports of a possible human cluster of H5N1 have caused unease among scientists and health officials around the world.

Over the past two years, the lethal pathogen has devastated bird populations in unprecedented numbers and has more recently jumped into mammals including mink, foxes and sealions.

There are also signs it may be mutating, which could eventually enable H5N1 to spread efficiently in humans.

The UK Health Security Agency confirmed yesterday it is drawing up hypothetical Covid-style modelling to see what might happen if the virus started to people. Scientists have also called for governments to urgently organise influenza vaccines and other countermeasures.

The young girl who died of the virus in Cambodia lived in a village in Prey Veng province, a region 60 miles southeast of the capital Phnom Penh, and close to the border with Vietnam.

Link
 
Family clusters have occurred before probably due to close contact.

Yeah, I think the likeliest answer so far is that they were infected by a common environmental factor such as the large numbers of birds with the flu.

That said the WHO has apparently raised an eyebrow at this and called for “vigilance not alarmism”:

This site seems to be pretty good, maybe you know of it already, SG:

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...father-in-prey-veng-province-february-22-2023
 
Time for the old joke again:

Snake: "I am an Inland Taipan, fear me! One drop of my venom is enough to kill 100 men!"

Chicken: "Bwaaaaaaark! That's nothing, you should see what happens when I sneeze."
 
Yeah, I think the likeliest answer so far is that they were infected by a common environmental factor such as the large numbers of birds with the flu.

That said the WHO has apparently raised an eyebrow at this and called for “vigilance not alarmism”:

This site seems to be pretty good, maybe you know of it already, SG:

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...father-in-prey-veng-province-february-22-2023
Yes I am familiar with the web site, still worth posting.

Of course the WHO has an interest in the cluster.

NIH: Outbreak of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in Hong Kong in 1997
The first outbreak of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus in humans occurred in Hong Kong in 1997. Infection was confirmed in 18 individuals, 6 of whom died. Infections were acquired by humans directly from chickens, without the involvement of an intermediate host. The outbreak was halted by a territory-wide slaughter of more than 1.5 million chickens at the end of December 1997.


CDC: Emergence and Evolution of H5N1 Bird Flu

I couldn't find a good summary of the 1997 Hong Kong outbreak without spending a lot of time on a search. While most people infected had direct contact with poultry some of their family members also got infected. Person to person transmission was documented with 2 caveats. There might have been a genetic risk factor given household blood relatives were more at risk than spouses. And it really didn't spread easily person to person so it didn't go any further.

Molecular studies showed it was adapted to deeper lung tissues and not to the upper airways of humans. People didn't shed enough virus for much human to human spread.

Birds OTOH have the virus throughout their GI tracts. They **** in a pond, another swims/drinks from said pond and the virus is off to the races. A similar thing happens with spreading in the crowded hen houses we raise our chickens in, cages are stacked one on top of another so they all **** on the birds below them. And just being crowded is enough for flu viruses to spread.

That we are seeing mammals infected is a bad sign the virus has taken a dangerous turn infecting that necessary intermediate species. ;)
 
Last edited:
Sorry, I know the title is a bit click-baity, BUT... there are a few concerning developments that bird flu (AKA: H5N1) is getting closer to having pandemic potential.

The number of species of mammals catching H5N1 is getting to the disturbing stage.

And another step is the mammalian transmission chain as dairy cows are now among those species.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/avian-flu-h5n1-cow-outbreaks-1.7162626

Fortunately. having just been through the covid pandemic, international co-operation and pandemic preparedness is at an all-time high.

One of those words is incorrect.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350...ng-almost-incomprehensible-pandemic-pact-hold
 
And another step is the mammalian transmission chain as dairy cows are now among those species.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/avian-flu-h5n1-cow-outbreaks-1.7162626

Fortunately. having just been through the covid pandemic, international co-operation and pandemic preparedness is at an all-time high.

One of those words is incorrect.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350...ng-almost-incomprehensible-pandemic-pact-hold

I see that undocumented migrants are getting the blame:

Migratory waterfowl are to blame for widening avian-flu outbreaks in Texas cows and poultry, and wild birds carrying the virus should be heading north soon, state Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller said.
The U.S. government since last week has reported cases of the disease in seven dairy herds in Texas and one person who had contact with cows, making it the state most affected by the country's first-ever outbreaks in cattle. Texas is the biggest U.S. cattle producer.
 
I suspect every stray disease that happens along is going to be called "The Next Pandemic".
 
I suspect every stray disease that happens along is going to be called "The Next Pandemic".

This one has been top candidate for about two decades. It’s nothing to sneeze at….

Due to the high lethality and virulence of HPAI A(H5N1), its endemic presence, its increasingly large host reservoir, and its significant ongoing mutations, in 2006, the H5N1 virus has been regarded to be the world's largest pandemic threat, and billions of dollars are being spent researching H5N1 and preparing for a potential influenza pandemic.
 
A couple of Kiwi scientists have weighed in:

Otago University virologist Dr Jemma Geoghegan said while the risk to humans was still low at the present time, “there’s definitely cause for concern that there are so many different mammalian hosts getting infected”.

“There’s been a massive expansion on the host range of even mammalian spillovers, which is like nothing I have seen before.”

Have no fear, we'll be pulling the drawbridge up a lot faster for H5N1 if it strikes than we did for covid.
 
It might not help as much this time, though. Birds couldn't bring Covid.

We only have a small number of migratory birds and no H5N1 has been detected yet. I imagine if they're sick they wouldn't make it, with a migration that takes about ten days direct flight.
 
Seems like it's only a matter of time now. Clearly mammals are susceptible. The only question is, how deadly will it be?

Yet another good reason to Pasteurize milk.
 
Seems like it's only a matter of time now. Clearly mammals are susceptible. The only question is, how deadly will it be?
Yet another good reason to Pasteurize milk.

Probably depends on how much research has and is being done on vaccines for the known variants and on how it is changing.
 
Back
Top Bottom