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Cont: General UK Politics III - Dumb and Dumber

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Today, in the High Peak, I saw a farmer's field with Vote Labour posters on it, which was *very* unusual.

ETA, even compared to 20912001 or 2005
 
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Garrison said:
So the video has some decent analysis while you have nothing but doom and gloom based on, well nothing.
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Nothing except the analysis that a similar swing in the General Election (which is by no means certain) would lead to a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party.

By all means believe that this is another turning point and that the Tories are once again soundly beaten but remember how they bounced back after the 2019 local elections to get a thumping majority in the 2019 general election.

Labour eked out a modest lead in these local elections. They need a big one. By the time the general election comes around, Boris Johnson and partygate will be a distant memory, the public sector strikes will be over and inflation will be significantly lower. Many Tory voters will come back to the fold.
 
The Don said:
Presumably the same logic would hold in a general election and Labour will not win the seat.

For sure a LibDem MP would be an improvement (unless the LibDems are insane and choose to enter a coalition government with the Tories again) but it doesn't help Labour get a majority.
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Lib Dems joining with tories is lees insane than you think. The two party leaderships* are ideologically closer to each other than they are to Labour (even the current reincarnation of Nu Labor), and neither are known for representing the will of their voters.

Lets just say nothing will surprise me after seeing the Irish Greens get into bed with Fianna Fáil less then ten years after they committed that particulsr political suicide. Yes, Eamon Ryan is an empty suit, but I thought he had enough intelligence to remember what happened to him the last time.

*I know the Lib Dem voters are often to the left of Labour, their politicians aren't.
 
jimbob said:
Today, in the High Peak, I saw a farmer's field with Vote Labour posters on it, which was *very* unusual.

ETA, even compared to 20912001 or 2005
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I can’t imagine any farmers in livestock country having had a Vote Labour poster in the middle of the 2001 FMD outbreak.

Or any farmer in arable country having a Vote Labour poster ever.
 
The Don said:
A channel I watch regularly but one which I wouldn't trust to give an impartial view.
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The figures he used at the start are correct, I went and looked them up. There does not need to to be any interpretation as his point was simply that the last time the statistician ran these figures they did not predict the actual outcome of the next general election.
 
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The Don said:
Presumably the same logic would hold in a general election and Labour will not win the seat.
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Not necessarily. Voting intentions do often change depending on whether you are voting for the local council or national government.
For sure a LibDem MP would be an improvement (unless the LibDems are insane and choose to enter a coalition government with the Tories again) but it doesn't help Labour get a majority.
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Having checked recent opinion polls, I'd say it's more likely that the Lib Dems will be in a coalition with Labour.
 
Aren’t there some years to the next election for the national government? Voters are known to have very short memories, so much can still happen, right?
 
steenkh said:
Aren’t there some years to the next election for the national government? Voters are known to have very short memories, so much can still happen, right?
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Given the state of the country, if they actually could fix all the problems that people can see every day in the limited time left, they'd probably deserve to win.
 
steenkh said:
Aren’t there some years to the next election for the national government? Voters are known to have very short memories, so much can still happen, right?
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For values of "some" less than two.

There has to be an election this year or next year.

I think the scandals and bad news will continue until then.
 
The pandemic continues to deliver…


https://www.theguardian.com/politic...lobbying-ministers-in-pandemic-watchdog-finds

… A leading Conservative MP and former health minister did not properly declare his second job for a health recruitment firm when lobbying Matt Hancock and Michael Gove during the pandemic, the standards watchdog has found.

Steve Brine, the chair of the Commons health committee, was found to have breached the rules twice by failing to declare in his approaches to cabinet ministers in early 2021 that he was a paid strategic adviser to Remedium Partners, a recruitment firm offering doctors for free to the NHS.…​
 
Darat said:
The pandemic continues to deliver…


https://www.theguardian.com/politic...lobbying-ministers-in-pandemic-watchdog-finds

… A leading Conservative MP and former health minister did not properly declare his second job for a health recruitment firm when lobbying Matt Hancock and Michael Gove during the pandemic, the standards watchdog has found.

Steve Brine, the chair of the Commons health committee, was found to have breached the rules twice by failing to declare in his approaches to cabinet ministers in early 2021 that he was a paid strategic adviser to Remedium Partners, a recruitment firm offering doctors for free to the NHS.…​
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This was a time of rampant profiteering with many people dying to line their pockets. There simply wasn't time to cross all the 'i's and dot all the 't's. Or something.....
 
Lothian said:
This was a time of rampant profiteering with many people dying to line their pockets. There simply wasn't time to cross all the 'i's and dot all the 't's. Or something.....
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Indeed, after all it's just like when approached by a reputable UK based PPE provider with an established history of supplying the NHS on one hand, and a Tory colleague's spouse with an off the shelf shell company and an Ali Express account on the other, what are you going to do? It's too close to call.
 
I see the former Conservative MP, liar, perjurer, anti-semite and homophobe Andrew Bridgen has found his natural home and joined the 'Reclaim' party.
 
Anybody else read about Braverman's latest rant?

In it she is basicly saying that "What? No all my policies don't fail because I'm a far right rabble rouser and failed conveyancing lawyer who doesn't know the first thing about the law and is only interested in rabble rousing and fake solutions to real problems. It's because (((they))) are conspiring against me because (((they))) are obviously jealous of my genius and me being right about everything!"

Sure, Sue Ellen.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
Anybody else read about Braverman's latest rant?

In it she is basicly saying that "What? No all my policies don't fail because I'm a far right rabble rouser and failed conveyancing lawyer who doesn't know the first thing about the law and is only interested in rabble rousing and fake solutions to real problems. It's because (((they))) are conspiring against me because (((they))) are obviously jealous of my genius and me being right about everything!"

Sure, Sue Ellen.
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" ... setting out ideas for a post-election Conservative leadership bid."

Yep, and there will be others (people, as well as speeches)
 
Sometimes I do think I am too cynical about UK politics. And then something like this happens:



Former cabinet minister says government attempt to suppress Labour support backfired and made it harder for Conservatives to vote.

Rees-Mogg said: “Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding their clever scheme comes back to bite them, as dare I say we found by insisting on voter ID for elections.

“We found the people who didn’t have ID were elderly and they by and large voted Conservative.

The former Tory cabinet minister added: “So we made it hard for our own voters and we upset a system that worked perfectly well.”

The new law was proposed and made its way through parliament while Rees-Mogg was serving in the government.

...snip...
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Matt Green's take on the fringe Tory convention speeches


 
You know how there was this huge furore over minor local pockets of anti-semitism within the Labour party? Well, yesterday we just saw the group that represents the majority of both tory MPs and members use the anti-semitic tropes that used to fill the pages of Der Stürmer and Der Volkischer Beobachter amongst other nazi publications.

This is where one of the two major English parties has gone.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
You know how there was this huge furore over minor local pockets of anti-semitism within the Labour party? Well, yesterday we just saw the group that represents the majority of both tory MPs and members use the anti-semitic tropes that used to fill the pages of Der Stürmer and Der Volkischer Beobachter amongst other nazi publications.

This is where one of the two major English parties has gone.
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Filippo Lippi said:
"Hitler spoilt Nationalism for us" (round of applause) Douglas Murray at the Nat C rally in London

Link
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Yes, but it's Labour who are the racists and anti-Semites. :rolleyes:

The problem is that Labour actually care about this kind of thing and so when there are allegations, they'll investigate them and if there is any hint of impropriety then they will punish those involved.

OTOH the Conservatives don't really care and will do their utmost to ignore and/or minimise any allegations.
 
The Conservatives in general, and Boris Johnson in particular, proudly boasted of building "40 new hospitals". It turned out that there were nothing of the sort, in effect installing a new vending machine in an existing hospital was counted as a "new hospital" for counting purposes *.

Now it turns out that no actual building work has been done on 33 of 40 hospitals:

Building work is yet to start for 33 of the government's 40 promised new hospitals in England, the BBC has found.

Most are still waiting to hear what their final budget will be for the projects with a 2030 deadline. Only two are finished and open.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-65607962

They lie as easily as they breathe. :mad:

The big problem for most of them is that there simply isn't any actual build money (despite the government saying that it was).

31 said they did not yet have the money to start the core building work but had received some cash to get the project going
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Of course no-one living in the right wing media bubble will hear anything of this.

* - Not actually true but building a new wing, or refurbishing an existing wing on an existing hospital did count.
 
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