I should say that I do believe there is reason to suspect something a lot deeper and darker than what has emerged so far about Lockerbie. There is a reason the title of my book has a question mark in it.
The difficulty I have, as I told Jan Stocklassa last year when we met to discuss the book he is currently writing about Lockerbie, is that I'm seeing two possible scenarios and yet when I try to formulate either of them I get to an impasse that says "that's impossible". (By the way, it was pointed out to me the other day that Jan Stocklassa posted
a very kind recommendation for my book on the authors' recommendations website Shepherd.com.)
One scenario is the obvious one. Terrorist group decides to target PA103, manages to get a suitcase containing a time-delay bomb into a luggage container on the plane, and beats a hasty retreat. I prefer this one, obviously, but there are difficulties. John pointed out one of them, the clothes. Not that they were bought on Malta, that's not important, but that they were brand new and easily traceable to the shop through the manufacturers' labels. (And the circumstances of the purchase were singular enough that the shopkeeper remembered the sale
eleven months later.) Considering the amount of untraceable clothes in the world, in second-hand shops, in people's cupboards and wardrobes and even in big, anonymous department stores, that is an exceedingly odd thing to do.
Another, obviously, is the timer fragment. I have broken my brain on this one several times, and so has John Ashton who has actually interviewed the technician who made the damn things (who is a liar, by the way) and shared what he got with me. There is no scenario that makes a blind bit of sense. Who made it, when, for what purpose, why was it incorporated into the device (if it was), how did it get into the shirt collar, none of it. It's a bottomless rabbit-hole of anomaly. We concluded that there is something fundamental that we don't know that we need to know before we can answer any of that.
The biggest anomaly for me though is tray 8849 on the Frankfurt printout. That was not the bomb, I am 100% confident of that. At one level the entire printout analysis is hopelessly flawed. It's so unreliable that absolutely nobody should have been convicted on the basis of the reasoning that said the bomb was in that tray. (The way the judges finessed this is jaw-dropping.) On the other hand every single other one of the 25 transfer trays can be given at least a provisional, rational, evidence-based identification - from the ones we're absolutely sure about down to the one that seemed to have come from Warsaw but which was probably a misrouted piece of luggage being re-booked from the Fehlerbahn. All except 8849. I've got nothing. That tray should not be there, unless someone was playing silly buggers somewhere. And the full computer dataset for the day, which should and would have allowed all this to be put to bed without any uncertainty, was inexplicably wiped from the system without a backup being taken.
These are the main issues that provide real stumbling blocks to the simple scenario that I still really really hope is the right one.
The other scenario is the conspiracy theory. In that scenario these anomalies are plants or deliberate misdirection to lead the investigation astray. There are huge problems with this too, not least that this sort of misdirection is not something run-of-the-mill terrorists go in for. I can plausibly see how the clothes purchase might have been accomplished (that one is quite easy) and also how tray 8849 might have been fabricated. But even there, the scenario is getting implausible and over-complicated. Once you get on to the timer fragment it becomes another giant black hole of inexplicability.
If this was fiction I'd just throw up my hands and declare that the author screwed up. But it's not. It really happened. There is a non-supernatural explanation for these things, I just don't know what it is.
And note, all this is pretty much independent of who actually carried out the bombing.
All I know for sure is that the bomb entered the airline baggage system at Heathrow airport, in the interline shed, about 4.30 in the afternoon. That part of the evidence resolves beautifully with almost no loose ends and an extremely high confidence rate. It's the solved part of the jigsaw we should be able to use to get the rest sorted out. Except I can't. And John Ashton can't. And if Jan Stocklassa can, I'll buy him more than a coffee next time.
But this is what I'm interested in discussing.
Edited by sarge:
removed uncivil content