Does Crime Pay? "Somali Jack" Sparrow says "Yes!"

[Darth Rotor]

The latest raid on the shipping lanes off of the Horn of Africa lands a supertanker that can haul about 2 million barrels of oil. (That's quite a bit.)
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-piracy19-2008nov19,0,5645455.story

World oil markets took only brief notice of the hijacking, jumping to $58.98 per barrel before closing at $54.95, down $2.09 from Friday, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Had the hijacking taken place earlier in the year, before the world's leading economies began reeling and international demand for oil fell, it might have kicked the price of oil up $5 or more, analysts said.

Perhaps, but let's look at the profit motive: is this an issue of trying to fence a shipload of oil? No, it's more of a "kidnap for profit" deal that seems to be increasing in pupularity in more and more places. (While Mexico is locally famous for it, Mexico is not the only place this goes on.)

{A} ... Ukrainian ship and its crew are still being held off the coast of the East African country as its owners negotiate with the pirates, who are seeking a multimillion-dollar ransom. Pirates typically attack within 200 miles of shore and go after much smaller prey, Christensen said. But in the case of the oil tanker, the assailants, who are holding hostage a multinational crew of 25, appear to be "fundamentally changing the way they're doing business," he said.

From here: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/18/world/africa/18pirates.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Most ships do not have heavy security, while the pirates are fast and well armed. The ransom payments have been rising. Only a few years ago the average ransom was in the tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars. In 2008 they have mostly ranged from $500,000 to $2 million.

I find it disturbing that as pirate attacks rose a few years ago, the international community, to inlclude my country, did not assemble a blue hulled flotilla (with significant air support) to deal severely with this criminal enterprise. I guess that only happens when the enabling behavior continues, and the pirates up their price.

The pirates’ profits are set to reach a record $50 million in 2008, Somali officials say. Shipping firms are usually prepared to pay, because the sums are still low compared with the value of the ships.

The cost of a security detail is how much, in comparison? Doubtless some clever MBA sort did a cost benefit risk analysis and found it to be cheaper just to pay, rather than increase payroll. This attitude strikes me as similar to how airline hijacking was dealt with for so long.

Action on this matter is long overdue. Hang them from the highest yardarm in the nearest port city.

DR

 

[Sir Robin Goodfellow]

Shoot first, ask questions later.

 

[geni]

The cost of a security detail is how much, in comparison? Doubtless some clever MBA sort did a cost benefit risk analysis and found it to be cheaper just to pay, rather than increase payroll. This attitude strikes me as similar to how airline hijacking was dealt with for so long.

Cost wise most of the ships could go via the cape of good hope if too many ships were lost.

Action on this matter is long overdue. Hang them from the highest yardarm in the nearest port city.

First you have to work out who they are.

 

[sackett]

Can somebody bring us up to speed on current maritime law re piracy? Are there any "international waters" left anywhere? If so, and if you caught some pirates in them, what, aside from common decency, would prevent you from icing them then and there?

 

[dudalb]

First you have to work out who they are.

That should not be that hard.
This is a problem that is getting worse and worse.
The only way to solve it is by shutting down the bases in Somalia that the pirates work out of. That is what killed Piracy in the Carribean in the 1700's.
And if the pirates are killed in the process of trying to take a ship, you won't see any tears from me.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Can somebody bring us up to speed on current maritime law re piracy? Are there any "international waters" left anywhere? If so, and if you caught some pirates in them, what, aside from common decency, would prevent you from icing them then and there?

With some exceptions, international waters are any part of the high seas beyond 12 nm from the coast. The exceptions include a variety of maritime zones that I'd need to referesh on to give you a better answer. Might be a trick to get ILOS in a pithy enough form once I do.

Common decency would dictate that one ice pirates on the spot, however, the most common reason not to is the desire to:

1. Not lose the crew/hostages
2. Not lose the cargo
3. Capture them in order to hang them, or whatever, or even find out more about who they are, etc. (Geni made a decent point along those lines)

DR

 

[geni]

Can somebody bring us up to speed on current maritime law re piracy? Are there any "international waters" left anywhere? If so, and if you caught some pirates in them, what, aside from common decency, would prevent you from icing them then and there?

There are various rules of the sea and most contries will have local laws that prevent that.

 

[geni]

That should not be that hard.

Really? How would you go about identifying them in the general somali population?

 

[dudalb]

Really? How would you go about identifying them in the general somali population?

With all the high tech gear we should be able to track them down to the port they operate out of.
So let's just sit back and do nothing about it?

 

[plumjam]

a supertanker that can haul about 2 million barrels of oil. (That's quite a bit.)

They'd better be careful, or there'll be one massive argument about black spots.

 

[timhau]

Shoot first, ask questions later.

The problem is that right now they're sitting on two million barrels of oil, and I suspect everyone wants to keep that oil mostly inside the tanker.

 

[geni]

With all the high tech gear we should be able to track them down to the port they operate out of.
So let's just sit back and do nothing about it?

Yeah we know which port it is doesn't help much. Telling the difference between a pirate and the average somalli inhabitant of the port is somewhat tricky.

 

[WildCat]

The pirates launch their attack boats from "mother ships" disguised as fishing boats. I think it's long overdue that the various navies in the area start boarding every fishing boat they see to search for evidence of piracy (weaponry, ladders, etc). If found, sink the boat on the spot.

Without the mother ship the pirates can't operate.

 

[The Man]

The pirates launch their attack boats from "mother ships" disguised as fishing boats. I think it's long overdue that the various navies in the area start boarding every fishing boat they see to search for evidence of piracy (weaponry, ladders, etc). If found, sink the boat on the spot.

Without the mother ship the pirates can't operate.

I saw part of an episode of “Shadow Force” on the History Channel where then had mercenaries practicing for boarding and inspecting suspected pirate mother ships. I did not see the end of it though.

 

[dudalb]

The pirates launch their attack boats from "mother ships" disguised as fishing boats. I think it's long overdue that the various navies in the area start boarding every fishing boat they see to search for evidence of piracy (weaponry, ladders, etc). If found, sink the boat on the spot.

Without the mother ship the pirates can't operate.

Can you say "US Navy Seal?".

 

[geni]

The pirates launch their attack boats from "mother ships" disguised as fishing boats. I think it's long overdue that the various navies in the area start boarding every fishing boat they see to search for evidence of piracy (weaponry, ladders, etc). If found, sink the boat on the spot.

Without the mother ship the pirates can't operate.

They can. Just need to improve their own boats and they have. Your other problem is that this is somalia. Weaponry isn't evidence of piracy.

 

[Jimbo07]

Can you say "US Navy Seal?".

... or even every navy's trained boarding parties.

Problems:
- there is not an infinite supply of trained boarding parties, even in the U.S. navy
- attacking ports may carry political ramifications
- it's not a problem that can be solved with missiles

 

[plumjam]

No need for Navy Seals, vaseline should do the job.

 

[Travis]

Wasn't the US Navy developing the Littoral Combat Ship to deal with things like this?

 

[tomwaits]

If it weren't for the crew, I would be in complete support of totally wiping out the pirates with chemical weapons. Serves them right.

 

[dudalb]

... or even every navy's trained boarding parties.

Problems:
- there is not an infinite supply of trained boarding parties, even in the U.S. navy
- attacking ports may carry political ramifications
- it's not a problem that can be solved with missiles

So let's keep ignoring the problem till it becomes a major crisis?
Brilliant.
As for political ramifications,I don't give a damn what the Somali Government thinks since it is pretty pathetic excuse for a Government if it cannot enforce laws in it;s own territory.
There is no "diplomatic" or "peaceful" solutiion to this problem anymore then there is a diplomatic or peaceful solution to a bunch of outlaws running wild.

 

[dudalb]

Wasn't the US Navy developing the Littoral Combat Ship to deal with things like this?

it's not a case of the US and other nations not having the military strength to take on the pirates...it does not require that much...but the will. I predict this will keep going on until the pirates pull something off in which a lot of people get killed.

 

[geni]

As for political ramifications,I don't give a damn what the Somali Government thinks since it is pretty pathetic excuse for a Government if it cannot enforce laws in it;s own territory.

Wrong goverment. I doubt the US goverment would really want to explain why it had just killed rather a lot of "civilians".

The problem is that unless they are actively engaged in priaracy (say in the act of boarding a ship) we don't know who these pirates are.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Wasn't the US Navy developing the Littoral Combat Ship to deal with things like this?

No. Littoral combat ship is a purpose built combatant for power projection.

Any multi purpose warship -- frigate, destroyer, cruiser -- now in the fleet is sufficient to handle this misison.

DR

 

[dudalb]

They have just now seized an Iranian Freighter.
Looks as if they are not some kind of Islamic group, but are in it for the money.
12 Ships in Seven Days...the pace is picking up.
Another problem on Obama's plate.

 

[dudalb]

Wrong goverment. I doubt the US goverment would really want to explain why it had just killed rather a lot of "civilians".

The problem is that unless they are actively engaged in priaracy (say in the act of boarding a ship) we don't know who these pirates are.

Then what the hell should we do? Just let this get out of hand until the Red Sea becomes a no man's land for commerce?

 

[rwguinn]

Then what the hell should we do? Just let this get out of hand until the Red Sea becomes a no man's land for commerce?

Works for me.
They created the damn problem, let 'em solve it. Anytime the West tries to help, we get more terrorism, and the Europeans sell 'em the weapons...

 

[dudalb]

Change that to Seven Ships in 12 days. My point that the pace if really picking up remains the same.

 

[dudalb]

Works for me.
They created the damn problem, let 'em solve it. Anytime the West tries to help, we get more terrorism, and the Europeans sell 'em the weapons...

A lot of American ships use the Red Sea also. Read a Map.
I think they are avoiding American ships on purpose, but if they continue to get away with it, that will stop.
Sorry, but piracy on this level is not something that can be tolerated.

 

[Donal]

- it's not a problem that can be solved with missiles

I don't understand that sentence.

 

[Jimbo07]

I don't understand that sentence.

I know... it was hard for me to write. I have trouble believing that there's any kind of problem that can't be solved with a few missiles!

 

[DanishDynamite]

My understanding is that a corridor has been made in which no ships have been succesfully attacked. The problem is that the pirates now attack up to 450 miles from Somalia shores, basically they hit before ships reach the corridor.

 

[dudalb]

My understanding is that a corridor has been made in which no ships have been succesfully attacked. The problem is that the pirates now attack up to 450 miles from Somalia shores, basically they hit before ships reach the corridor.

Next step it probably some form of convoying, but that has the problem of reducing the speed of traffic to a trickle.
The bases they operate from,whether on land or mother ships, have got to be shut down. Only real solution, as much as some well intentioned but nieve people would like to deny it.

 

[Jimbo07]

.
The bases they operate from,whether on land or mother ships, have got to be shut down. Only real solution, as much as some well intentioned but nieve people would like to deny it.

Who are these well intentioned but naive people? Commodore Christensen?

The use of military power, Christensen acknowledged, is limited in what it can do to stop a problem driven by lawlessness and poverty in Somalia, a nation at war with itself for most of the past 17 years.

"We can be there and suppress the piracy," Christensen said, "but the problem is on shore."

The decision to invade another country, even Somalia, is difficult (unless, of course, your last name is Bush ).

 

[geni]

A lot of American ships use the Red Sea also. Read a Map.
I think they are avoiding American ships on purpose, but if they continue to get away with it, that will stop.

I doubt it. With modern flags of convience I suspect you will find very few american flagged ships in that area. And no we can't ask liberia to sort it out.

Sorry, but piracy on this level is not something that can be tolerated.

True but not something it is easy to solve.

 

[DanishDynamite]

Next step it probably some form of convoying, but that has the problem of reducing the speed of traffic to a trickle.
The bases they operate from,whether on land or mother ships, have got to be shut down. Only real solution, as much as some well intentioned but nieve people would like to deny it.

No hope in hell of hitting their on shore bases, but perhaps some hope of hitting their "mother" ships. What does international maritime laws have to say on this, I wonder.

 

[geni]

Then what the hell should we do? Just let this get out of hand until the Red Sea becomes a no man's land for commerce?

Well that is one aproach yes. There are other options but they require the CIA to be competant.

Your options are:

1)stabise somalia. Unless you are prepared to back islamic extreamists that isn't going to happen
2)accept that the area will become comercialy unviable and the added costs that will result.
3)Large scale convoy/defensive corridor which is expensive
4)inteligence lead shore strikes which is hard.
5)Kill everyone south of Somaliland which is probably politicaly unacceptable.

 

[geni]

No hope in hell of hitting their on shore bases, but perhaps some hope of hitting their "mother" ships. What does international maritime laws have to say on this, I wonder.

It says if you have UN a mandate you can do whatever you like and getting an UN mandate will not in this case be a problem.

 

[DanishDynamite]

Well that is one aproach yes. There are other options but they require the CIA to be competant.

Your options are:

1)stabise somalia. Unless you are prepared to back islamic extreamists that isn't going to happen
2)accept that the area will become comercialy unviable and the added costs that will result.
3)Large scale convoy/defensive corridor which is expensive
4)inteligence lead shore strikes which is hard.
5)Kill everyone south of Somaliland which is probably politicaly unacceptable.

1) very expensive.
4) unhelpful
5) expensive and political suicide.

The only inexpensive (relatively) solution is massive millitary presence.

 

[WildCat]

They can. Just need to improve their own boats and they have. Your other problem is that this is somalia. Weaponry isn't evidence of piracy.

Weaponry + 30 ft. ladders sure as hell is.