Merged Australian Politics / Australian election

Here's the updated triangle. This year for the first time, the first preference votes for Independents and others may well exceed first preference votes for the Liberal Party.

www.abc.net.au

'Third party' vote looks set to beat Coalition

Labor took the glory, but beneath the surface of the election result an ongoing trend holds a warning for both major parties.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
See below for the % of votes each party received. The triangle is simplistic. Labor vote increased by 2.1%. The other big winner is Others who won 10 seats, the same as before. But their vote went up by 2.8%. One Nation's vote went up by 1.3% and they did not win a seat. Everyone else (Coalition, Greens, Trumpet of Patriots) lost votes.


www.abc.net.au

Party Results from the 2025 Federal Election

Stay updated on the latest party results from the 2025 Federal Election with ABC News experts. Get live voting updates and see how seats are distributed.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
Before next election I believe that more and more voters will realise that voting for independents is pointless as they have literally no power (with no casting vote in the Senate). By then, the Libs will have moved further to the right (*where else can they go?) and Labor will increase their vote.
 
lionking said:
Before next election I believe that more and more voters will realise that voting for independents is pointless as they have literally no power (with no casting vote in the Senate). By then, the Libs will have moved further to the right (*where else can they go?) and Labor will increase their vote.
Click to expand...
That sounds like wishful thinking to me. There is no reason to believe that the trend away from the big two won't continue. The Greens now have sole balance of power in the Senate (ironically because Labor now has more Senators) which will increase their negotiating power.
 
psionl0 said:
That sounds like wishful thinking to me. There is no reason to believe that the trend away from the big two won't continue. The Greens now have sole balance of power in the Senate (ironically because Labor now has more Senators) which will increase their negotiating power.
Click to expand...
What you are missing is that older Labor voters who flirted with the Greens came back to the fold due to their reckless blocking of Labor bills. Unless the Greens change (and I don’t think they will) they will continue slipping.

Also I think Fraser will replace Dutton. If anything he’s more unelectable.

Anyway, time will tell. I think I’ve been calling things right more often than not.
 
lionking said:
What you are missing is that older Labor voters who flirted with the Greens came back to the fold due to their reckless blocking of Labor bills.
Click to expand...
Do you not see the flaw here? Younger voters are the ones turning away from the big two (they have different influencers) and they are increasing in number relative to older voters.

Your narrative is totally at odds with the election results. Most of the votes that Labor gained were at the expense of the coalition while the Greens' primary vote is virtually unchanged since the last election.
 
lionking said:
Also I think Fraser will replace Dutton. If anything he’s more unelectable.
Click to expand...
My uncle is apparently a good mate of Angus Taylor.

Anyway, Labor now has a whopping 92 seats, with 8 still in doubt, including Bean in the ACT which still might go to an independent.
 
arthwollipot said:
Anyway, Labor now has a whopping 92 seats, with 8 still in doubt, including Bean in the ACT which still might go to an independent.
Click to expand...
Interesting. The votes now being counted are presumably from those who voted early and postal votes which were expected to favour the Libs. It suggests that early on, voters recognized Dutton for what he really is - a hard line conservative with disdain for workers (especially public sector workers) and those on welfare.
 
I thought there was a decline in both major parties votes? I have discovered that there has been no decline in Labor votes since the 2016 election where they lost! In that election they received 34.73% of the vote. In the 2025 election they received 34.69% of the vote, a decline of only 0.04%

The decline is in the Liberal vote which went down from 41.83% to 32.2% (NB I added up all Liberal or National parties)
What has actually happened is that the Teals and One Nation have taken votes mostly from the Liberals.

Ref
results.aec.gov.au

House of representatives downloads - AEC Tally Room

A collection of House of Representatives downloads
results.aec.gov.au
tallyroom.aec.gov.au

First preferences by party - AEC Tally Room

First preferences by party
tallyroom.aec.gov.au
 
I must admit if you go back to the 2007 election which Labor won, they got 36.28% of the vote. Even that is only 1.59% votes more than in 2025.

I notice the Greens received only 7.79% cf 11.79% at the 2025 elections.

The Liberals got 41.77% of the vote. This means most people who did not vote for either party gave the Labor party their preferences.
 
Labor up to 92 seats now. With even semi competent government for the next two years and a handover to the more charismatic Charmers, Labor is looking at another nine years rather comfortably.
 
Orphia Nay said:
What utter crap. Complete with an "expert" with no credentials.
Click to expand...
Here is a recent interview where she said it https://theshovel.com.au/2025/05/13/sussan-ley-changes-title-to-oppossition-leader/
Spoiler: It did not achieve what she wanted it to achieve - a change in personality.
NB. This is not behind a paywall.

Edit. It appears my source is not a very serious source.

Edit2: Here is another source that is a bit more reliable: https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/...irst-ever-female-leader-of-the-liberal-party/
 
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arthwollipot said:
Here's something I didn't know. Sussan Ley added the extra "s" in her name because of numerology, according to this completely credulous article on news.com.au

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What a waste of electrons that story was!

But good luck to Opposition Leader Lay. I hope she sticks around long enough to give the ruling clique in her party a few swift kicks in the nuts to wake them up from their stupor. They have been suffering from Boys-born-to-rulism for far too long, and this is what it has brought them to - annihilation as an effective political party. All hail the great god Ming!
 
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arthwollipot said:
Here's something I didn't know. Sussan Ley added the extra "s" in her name because of numerology, according to this completely credulous article on news.com.au

Click to expand...
I’m certain I mentioned this earlier in this thread. It should disqualify her for serious consideration for just about any position at all.

I suppose she is the best choice for the Libs at this stage, but she can’t possibly bring about their resurgence.
 
lionking said:
I’m certain I mentioned this earlier in this thread. It should disqualify her for serious consideration for just about any position at all.
Click to expand...
By that standard anybody who is Christian should also be disqualified, and we know how that works out.
lionking said:
I suppose she is the best choice for the Libs at this stage, but she can’t possibly bring about their resurgence.
Click to expand...
I don't know much about her personal policies or how she will lead the Libs, but I agree that being a woman isn't going to bring them back from the abject humiliation they suffered in this election. I expect she'll get ousted a couple of years down the track and Angus Taylor will end up leading the party into the next election.
 
arthwollipot said:
I expect she'll get ousted a couple of years down the track and Angus Taylor will end up leading the party into the next election.
Click to expand...
She will only be ousted if the Libs look like significantly improving their vote. They have a track record of having losers lead the party when they have no hope at the next election.

Of course, if Taylor thinks that he can take over from Ley and claim credit for improving the vote then he is delusional. Put another Dutton in the top role and any good work done by Ley will evaporate.
 
a_unique_person said:
Sussan Ley really doesn't impress me. There have been better women in the past who were overlooked and now there's almost no women there anyway.
Click to expand...
I think Julie Bishop could have done well. I had some dealings with her when I worked in the international aid sector and she was Foreign Affairs. For a Liberal Party politician she was quite reasonable.
 
Hmm...

I don't remember if there has been much conversation about this, but, here in South Australia, we've recently had a Liberal party leader resign from the party in the lead up to a criminal case, where he was accused of supplying cocaine on multiple occasions.

Despite much protestation in the media, he plead guilty to the charges.

Former South Australian opposition leader David Speirs has lost a bid to avoid being convicted over drug supply charges.

Speirs pleaded guilty to two charges of supplying a controlled substance to another person on separate occasions in August last year.

The 40-year-old’s lawyer previously asked the court not to record a conviction so that Speirs could travel overseas.

But today the Adelaide Magistrates Court fined the former Liberal leader $9,000 and recorded two convictions.

He has also been ordered to undertake 37-and-a-half hours of community service.
Click to expand...

www.abc.net.au

Former SA opposition leader David Speirs convicted over drug supply charges

The former SA Liberal leader has lost a bid to avoid being convicted over drug supply charges, with a magistrate saying the offending was "too serious" not to record convictions.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au

I'm impressed with the hubris of the request to not record a conviction because he wants to be able to travel.

Usual caveat for our American members:

in Australia, the Liberal party are right wing, there are very few, if any, members of the party that are liberal (in usual political terminology).
 
arthwollipot said:
Well, the Greens have claimed Ryan and because Adam Bandt didn't get reelected in Melbourne, Larissa Waters is now the new leader.

www.abc.net.au

Larissa Waters becomes Greens leader in 'consensus' decision

The Queensland senator will replace Adam Bandt in a "consensus" decision of the party room.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
Click to expand...
Interesting! Of the Libs, Labor, Nats and Greens, two of the four have female leaders now. I don't mean this in a disparaging way but... I truly hope the ladies will rattle their respective cages and get them back into some sort of sensible going concerns.
 
The CP has left the Coalition. It’s a bit of a shrug from me, because they will surely rejoin before the next Federal election. If they don’t and contest against each other in most seats they will lose even more seats.
 
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