• You may find search is unavailable for a little while. Trying to fix a problem.

Argentina’s Son-of-Sam Presidential Election

Edited by Agatha: 
Edited portion of post pertaining to split thread


Here's the thing, while a lot of people compare him to Trump, there is one way in which that seems unfair. Milei does seem to be genuinely intelligent and ideological, whereas Trump essentially only supports ideas or policies that directly benefit him. Trump is a pure self-aggrandizer whereas Milei seems to be almost a pure libertarian (except for his stance on abortion which he tries to square the circle on by saying he is in favour of the rights of the unborn child).

This might end up making him more dangerous than Trump, but it remains to be seen, I guess.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
angrysoba said:
I believe that the Falkland Islanders are in fact now citizens, unlike my poor mum who, being born in Ireland, is merely a British subject.

At any rate, Milei has said, for what it is worth, that he is not in favour of war over the Falklands, but a lengthy negotiation process.

Here's the thing, while a lot of people compare him to Trump, there is one way in which that seems unfair. Milei does seem to be genuinely intelligent and ideological, whereas Trump essentially only supports ideas or policies that directly benefit him. Trump is a pure self-aggrandizer whereas Milei seems to be almost a pure libertarian (except for his stance on abortion which he tries to square the circle on by saying he is in favour of the rights of the unborn child).

This might end up making him more dangerous than Trump, but it remains to be seen, I guess.
Click to expand...

IOW, a fantasist with wild and impractical ideas of Utopia, but very little practical knowledge or experience for the job of building and running it successfully. A daydreamer who made good...momentarily.

It won't end well.
 
Norman Alexander said:
IOW, a fantasist with wild and impractical ideas of Utopia, but very little practical knowledge or experience for the job of building and running it successfully. A daydreamer who made good...momentarily.

It won't end well.
Click to expand...

Oh completely. That's usually the way with ideological demagogues.

I noticed that a Facebook friend of mine was gushing all over this guy, which for me is a red flag. He has an extreme conspiratorial view of the world, which means while believing himself to be preternaturally incisive about the machinations of the mainstream media, he doesn't even do the most basic research to find out if his opinions about the world are even slightly in line with reality. He claimed that calling Milei a "libertarian" was a mainstream media ploy, when Milei himself calls himself that. He also said that the mainstream media were picking up on his anti-abortion stance when that was merely some private view he has that he doesn't want to implement, even though Milei himself has said he will put the overturning of legal abortion to a referendum.
 
Norman Alexander said:
He is only doing what his great supporter, Trump, would like to do.

Let's see how it works out over the next little while. Shall we?

:popcorn6
Click to expand...

he will be able to keep is Cabinet* together for longer than Trump could.


*his cabinet consists of his dogs, according to Interviews
 
Lukraak_Sisser said:
Yes, and in each case the populists who were 'going to fix it all!!!' made things worse while at the same time looting what they could for themselves and their cronies at a level unseen before. You'd think the pattern would be clear.
Click to expand...

I´m aware of that, but politicians should also be aware of it and not permit corruption and the detachment of the electorate to go so far as to get these kind of freaks get elected...

A similar thing happened with Trump, and the blame was largely of the Democrats, being so out of touch with the working classes and allowing the uglyness of the "legal" corruptiion of lobbies. (and of course Trump then just made it worse...)
 
Last edited:
angrysoba said:
I believe that the Falkland Islanders are in fact now citizens, unlike my poor mum who, being born in Ireland, is merely a British subject.

At any rate, Milei has said, for what it is worth, that he is not in favour of war over the Falklands, but a lengthy negotiation process.

Here's the thing, while a lot of people compare him to Trump, there is one way in which that seems unfair. Milei does seem to be genuinely intelligent and ideological, whereas Trump essentially only supports ideas or policies that directly benefit him. Trump is a pure self-aggrandizer whereas Milei seems to be almost a pure libertarian (except for his stance on abortion which he tries to square the circle on by saying he is in favour of the rights of the unborn child).

This might end up making him more dangerous than Trump, but it remains to be seen, I guess.
Click to expand...

Milei is less the Argentinian T****y than he is the Argentinian Alex Jones, with all the stupidity, nonsense and general insanity that entails.

Though he does look like a 1970's farmer/Kerry footballer.

PS there are exactly two kinds of libertarian, insanely rich people who are annoyed they're not allowed to own slaves and people who are deluded enough to think they won't be the slaves in their utopia. I don't think Milei is one of the former.
 
Last edited:
The discussion about the Falkland Islands has been split to here.
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Agatha
 
I don't know much about Argentina, but I saw this on Marginal Revolution today and thought it was relevant:

https://www.ft.com/content/14febdd5-5c3a-426b-a735-8c37497cd335
Milei’s November election win — on a pledge to rapidly overhaul Argentina’s dysfunctional economy — has triggered a burst of market exuberance. The local Merval stock index is up 28 per cent, while prices for Argentina’s closely watched sovereign bonds maturing in 2030 — some of the most liquid — have risen 22 per cent to 37.2 cents on the dollar.
Click to expand...
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
The ultra-rich love spoofers like Milei, in the irrational exuberance they create it allows the ultra-rich time to liquidate their assets at a higher price than value, before the actions of the spoofer causes the economy to keel over and die.
Click to expand...

This response makes me curious what you would have said had the stock market experienced a drop in value after the election.
 
Roboramma said:
This response makes me curious what you would have said had the stock market experienced a drop in value after the election.
Click to expand...

It seems that Milei does indeed have some issues. He seems to be back-peddling a bit on the whole “destroy the central bank” platform and also his claims he would not trade with China. But it seems part of his problem is, ironically, China wants his soy. So he may have to trade in soy with China.

It won’t be long before the alt-right twats will have to come to terms with the fact that their hopes were hung on Soy Javier. In fact, “Soy Javier” is literally how he introduces himself.
 
angrysoba said:
In fact, “Soy Javier” is literally how he introduces himself.
Click to expand...
But that is not a reference to the English word “soy”, is it?

ETA: My very limited knowledge of Spanish seems to indicate that “Soy Javier” means “I am Javier”.
 
Last edited:
This is what I was referring to earlier. It's actually from the Wall Street Journal, a publication I would have thought would be somewhat sympathetic to Milei...

Link

He has jettisoned some top economic advisers who were enlisted to help him kill the central bank and adopt the U.S. dollar as the national currency. He has aligned instead with officials from a previous center-right government that he previously derided. “No one said eliminating the central bank was going to be instantaneous,” he said Sunday.

After promising to cut ties with China—he had referred to the communist regime as assassins—he has since exchanged cordial words with Beijing. China is Argentina’s top buyer of soy, and Argentina is Latin America’s third-largest recipient of Chinese state-bank loans in South America.
Even his tone has shifted from talk-show personality to stoic voice of reason. He acknowledged the transition from nearly two decades of leftist Peronist governments to his vision of unfettered capitalism could take longer than expected. His moderation comes as powerful labor unions and social movements are lining up against him. Violent street protests have brought down Argentina presidencies in the past.

A spokesman for Milei declined requests for comment.
Click to expand...

I find it a little bit interesting because they do at least point out that government spending is essential in some areas...

Milei drew votes from people angry at the political establishment, not because they supported his libertarian view, according to political analysts. Many Argentines, accustomed to a nanny state, are now saying they hope his campaign promises were all talk. They worry his economic remedies will hit too close to home.

“Milei is a rich guy. He’s not going to feel the cuts like we are,” said Gustavo Pérez, a mechanic in the working-class district of San Miguel on the outskirts of the capital. He fretted over the fate of a new sewage-processing facility being built on his street, where children play soccer next to foul-smelling runoff water.

Despite being an agricultural powerhouse with massive lithium and energy deposits, Argentina is in its worst economic crisis in a generation. Two of five people live in poverty. The peso has lost 90% of its value. In November, inflation was up 147% from a year earlier.
Click to expand...

It then goes on to describe numerous people who work either directly for the government or for state-owned industries that could be threatened with unemployment if Milei makes his promised cuts.

This is perhaps reflective of the true nature of what some right-wingers and conspiracy theorists like to refer to as the deep state. It is not actually some guys in suits who warn the incoming presidents of making sure they get with the program or get a bullet, it is more likely that people outside the establishment have no idea of the complexity of running governments and economies so can make all kind of extreme dogmatic pronouncements only to find out that things are much more difficult than they made them sound. This is often true of radical lefties as well.

Then there is always the problem that when you get in and want to make demands, people don't simply do what you tell them to. Then you have a choice. Make a compromise or run into several brick walls.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
What influence do you think a random number generator should have on my political thinking?
Click to expand...

Well, based on this post:

Gulliver Foyle said:
The ultra-rich love spoofers like Milei, in the irrational exuberance they create it allows the ultra-rich time to liquidate their assets at a higher price than value, before the actions of the spoofer causes the economy to keel over and die.
Click to expand...

A "random number generator" increased your confidence in your prior beliefs.
 
And it has begun:

What? The libertarian went authoritarian??? How could this have happened? Utterly unpredictable. Madness, even.
BREAKING 🇦🇷 President Javier Milei announces a total crackdown on Argentine civil society, calling on armed forces to break strikes, arrest protestors, “protect” children from families that bring them to demos, and form a new national registry of all agitating organisations.
David Adler (Twitter/X, Dec 15, 2023)
Click to expand...
salsa (Twitter/X, Dec 15, 2023)
Click to expand...


Move comes as demonstrations are expected to grow as social groups react to new president Javier Milei’s austerity plans
Patricia Bullrich, the security minister appointed by Argentina’s new president Javier Milei, has announced sweeping plans to crack down on protests, setting up a potential clash with social groups that have pledged to oppose “shock therapy” economic reforms.
Bullrich’s new security protocol includes plans to block demonstrators from holding disruptive road-blocking protests in Buenos Aires, impose fines and potential legal penalties on protesters and social movements, and to call up all four of Argentina’s federal police forces to participate in the clearing of protests.
(...)
Her new protocols include a pledge to bill social organisations and individual protesters for the cost of policing demonstrations. She also said police would share information about protesters with migration authorities, or with child protection authorities in the case of parents who take minors to protests.
Argentina’s security minister announces crackdown on protests (FinancialTimes, Dec 15, 2023)
Click to expand...


Los récords de Milei - Otros presidentes del mundo han dado semejantes giros, pero ninguno con tal celeridad (Granma.cu, Dec 13, 2023 - in Spanish)
Die Rekorde von Milei - Auch andere Präsidenten der Welt haben solche Kehrtwendungen gemacht, aber keiner mit einer solchen Geschwindigkeit (Granma.cu, Dec 14, 2023 - in German)
 
Seen on MarginalRevolution today:
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/01/rent-controls.html
Milei’s Decree 70/2023, translated as ‘Foundations for the Reconstruction of the Argentine Economy,’ eliminated rent controls, including allowing contracting in dollars. Even though it has been only a matter of months, early signs are very positive:

Already the reduced risks to landlords is leading a rebound in the rental supply. Broker Soledad Balayan has shown a 50% rise in notices for traditional rentals since the decree. A host of other sources, including the Argentine Real Estate Chamber, have confirmed large supply jumps. Perhaps unsurprisingly, reports show new rental prices falling, by between 20 and 30% so far.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
Roboramma said:
"reports show new rental prices falling, by between 20 and 30% so far."
Click to expand...

I have no confidence that a man who doesn't understand reality will be able to assimilate facts and regurgitate them correctly.

Plus, rental prices are inelastic enough (especially downwards) that you cannot attribute price changes like that to just instituted rules.
 
Put the rent low until the lease is signed then jack it up.

It's an old trick.

You have to ask, what was stopping landlords advertising and letting property at rent's lower than the cap before it was removed?
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
I have no confidence that a man who doesn't understand reality will be able to assimilate facts and regurgitate them correctly.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure exactly what this means. I think you're disputing the accuracy of the figures on rental prices falling?

Plus, rental prices are inelastic enough (especially downwards) that you cannot attribute price changes like that to just instituted rules.
Click to expand...

Sure, it's possible that a 20-30% drop in price so soon after the change in law isn't causally related. But a good Bayesian should still do some updating based on this data.
 
Andy_Ross said:
Put the rent low until the lease is signed then jack it up.

It's an old trick.

You have to ask, what was stopping landlords advertising and letting property at rent's lower than the cap before it was removed?
Click to expand...

Click the link, it's written by an economist who explains the theory behind why rent controls increase the price of rents and why we should expect removing rent control to lead to lower prices.

I'm happy to accept your wait and see attitude, that does seem reasonable. I was just posting a piece of data, if you don't think you should update much based on it that's entirely rational, but you should still update.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
I'm disputing the ability of anybody calling themselves libertarian to understand economic reality.
Click to expand...

That's fine. I wasn't reporting on anyone's interpretation of economic reality. Just some facts that you can interpret as you like. Andy's response "Check again in a couple of months." seems entirely reasonable to me for instance.

I'm also not particularly optimistic about Argentina's economic future right now. This prediction market: https://manifold.markets/grofigaszadosijv/will-the-reforms-of-the-new-preside gives a 57% chance for GDP growth this year. That seems too high to me and you could probably make some money by betting against it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom