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60 billion planets in Milky Way may contain life

Are you sure? I'm no chemist or biologist, but I'm pretty sure I've read that this has happened in vitro.

My understanding is that while it's hard to maintain, it's almost inevitable once the components are formed.

There's also the fact that fully-developed arachaebacteria (which are now ubiquitous in, on, under and above the Earth) will easily outcompete newly originating self-replicating molecules.
This cannot be emphasized enough. This is one of the biggest changes from the Hadean to today--in the Hadean it was MUCH easier for a self-replicating molecule to establish itself, simply because it was less likely to be eaten. Today, a self-replicating molecule is called "food" for a whole host of organisms. We have to remember that we're seeing species after nearly four billion years of evolution whenever we look at ANYTHING that's alive--even the most simplistic life-form is the product of billions of years' worth of refinements. Going back to the very beginning is extremely difficult to wrap your head around, merely because you're so used to dealing with what can be termed the end products (or at least, the products at a natural break [our lifespan]).
 
This cannot be emphasized enough. This is one of the biggest changes from the Hadean to today--in the Hadean it was MUCH easier for a self-replicating molecule to establish itself, simply because it was less likely to be eaten. Today, a self-replicating molecule is called "food" for a whole host of organisms. We have to remember that we're seeing species after nearly four billion years of evolution whenever we look at ANYTHING that's alive--even the most simplistic life-form is the product of billions of years' worth of refinements. Going back to the very beginning is extremely difficult to wrap your head around, merely because you're so used to dealing with what can be termed the end products (or at least, the products at a natural break [our lifespan]).

I like to think I can wrap my head around these issues (from an armchair, generally-educated but not-a-scientist-position), but I greatly appreciate your explanations. (Also I can tell when I'm on the wrong track and when I'm thinking the right way.)


Anyway, this is exactly why we aren't able to document abiogenesis happening somewhere in the world even if it occurs once every day.

But from what I read, we have observed pretty much all the important steps. No major thing is missing. And I've yet to hear what other good ideas there are to explain what we know for sure happened.

ETA: Dinwar, have you read Darling's book Life Everywhere? It's in part a rebuttal to the Gonzales-inspired book by Brownlee and Ward, Rare Earth. He also makes an argument that we should expect convergent evolution such that life elsewhere will be readily recognizable. Leaves, roots, eyes, legs, fins, etc.
 
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JoeTheJuggler said:
ETA: Dinwar, have you read Darling's book Life Everywhere? It's in part a rebuttal to the Gonzales-inspired book by Brownlee and Ward, Rare Earth. He also makes an argument that we should expect convergent evolution such that life elsewhere will be readily recognizable. Leaves, roots, eyes, legs, fins, etc.
I haven't read either. I'm looking for a book to read outside of archaeology textbooks (VERY interesting information on taphonomy, but when you realize "This will happen to me" it gets rather depressing); I'll have to look into them.

The idea that life should be recognizable is something I've always had a problem with. I mean, to a certain extent yeah, most large life (say, macroscopic) will have the same constraints--fluids move in certain ways, boyancy works certain ways in gasses and in liquids, etc. But contingency is a major part of evolution as well. If the K/Pg impact had never happened, mammals wouldn't have evolved the way we did and most top predators would be bipeds, not quadrapeds like we see now. But I'll definitely have to look into this more.
 
Returning back to ne, I've found some studies of the question of the composition of habitable-zone Earthlike planets.

It's becoming evident that some sizable fraction of stars has Earth-sized planets in their habitable zones, though it's still somewhat difficult to quantify. The habitable zone is defined as the range of distances where water can be liquid on the surface of a planet, but does a habitable-zone planet actually have water?

[1004.0971] The Compositional Diversity of Extrasolar Terrestrial Planets: I. In-Situ Simulations -- in the absence of wandering Jovian planets, a habitable-zone planet will likely have little or no water. This is because the planetary system's water condenses too far away.

[1209.5125] The Compositional Diversity of Extrasolar Terrestrial Planets: II. Migration Simulations -- wayward Jovian planets can mix up the protoplanetary disk, sending watery protoplanets inward. This can give inner planets amounts of water at least as great as the Earth's, sometimes hundreds of times as much.

Did this happen to the Solar System? According to the "Grand Tack" hypothesis, Jupiter and Saturn spiraled inward, then outward again, with Jupiter going from around 3.5 AU to 1.5 AU to 5 AU.

A low mass for Mars from Jupiter/'s early gas-driven migration : Nature : Nature Publishing Group
Full text here
How Did Jupiter Shape Our Solar System?
NASA - Jupiter's Youthful Travels Redefined Solar System
The Grand Tack Hypothesis - presentation

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If the Earth's oceans were spread evenly over the Earth's surface, they'd have an average depth of about 2.6 km; their actual average depth is about 3.6 km.

So 1000 times the Earth's ocean means a depth of about 2600 km.

Only 10 times the Earth's ocean means a depth of about 26 km. That will be enough to cover all the Earth's surface, including its highest mountains. Mt. Everest is about 8.8 km above our sea level, and about 12.4 km above the average ocean-floor depth. Mt. Everest is well inside Eurasia, and the highest mountain that extends up from the ocean floor is Mauna Loa in Hawaii at about 9 km.

-

Planet structure in general:

Exoplanet Mass and Radius and the Physics of Planetary Interiors -- presentation
Mass-Radius Relationships for Solid Exoplanets -- journal paper

Which planets have plate tectonics?

The Earth is barely big enough to do so, and it does so because it has oceans of liquid water. Water in rock lowers its melting point, making it possible. But a 2-Earth-mass planet can have plate tectonics even if it is dry. The upper limit of a mostly-rocky planet is about 10 Earth masses; any more than that, and it starts accumulating volatiles, making it like Uranus and Neptune.

Earth Barely Big Enough for Life, Study Says
Earth: A Borderline Planet For Life?
Diana Valencia: "There are not only more potentially habitable planets, but ... - newsle
CfA Press Room on this question
Inevitability of Plate Tectonics on Super-Earths - Abstract - The Astrophysical Journal Letters - IOPscience
 
Too little water is bad for life, so can too much water also be? There is reason to suspect that that may be the case.

A serious problem for the "primordial soup" hypothesis of the origin of life is getting molecules together. Rock surfaces solve that problem rather nicely; prebiotic molecules can stick to them. This suggests an origin of life in a hydrothermal vent or something similar.

Hydrothermal vents can exist on the ocean floor of a super-ocean planet, but so life can also originate on such planets. But there's a potential problem for a large ocean: not enough dissolved trace elements. That's a major limiting factor for our oceans' biota; photosynthentic organisms can't grow in "ocean deserts", regions with too little iron.

There's also a shortage of thermodynamic disequilibrium in most of the ocean, a potential problem for the subsurface ocean of Europa. Hydrothermal vents have significant disequilibrium, since reduced materials and oxidized materials mix there, materials like hydrogen from the rocks below and carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides from the surrounding ocean. However, this source of disequilibrium becomes diluted away from hydrothermal vents.

Photosynthesis is only possible at the top of the ocean, the illuminated or "photic zone". It isdefined as where light intensity is at least 1% that at the surface. In the Earth's oceans, its depth is about 200 m.

So it's a long way up, a way without a good supply of trace elements or thermodynamic disequilibrium.


The bioinorganic chemistry of the ancient ocean: the co-evolution of cyanobacterial metal requirements and biogeochemical cycles at the Archean-Proterozoic boundary?
The Archean ocean had a lot of ferrous iron (Fe2+) dissolved in it, but the present-day ocean has ferric iron (Fe3+) instead.

Hydrogen and ferrous iron act as electron donors, and carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides as electron acceptors:
H2 -> 2H+ + 2e
Fe2+ -> Fe3+ + e

CO2 + 8H+ + 8e -> CH4 + 2H2O
NOx + H+'s + e's -> N2's + H2O's (the precise balance depends on which nitrogen oxide)

But there's a problem with a super ocean. In our ocean, iron and other trace elements wash into the oceans from above-ocean land, having been eroded from that land's rocks. But a super ocean without any land does not have such a source of trace elements. We can see this relative lack of erosion in the abundance of seamounts in our planet's oceans. They may once have had above-water tops, but those tops are now gone. It's easy to see the progression in the Hawaiian-Emperor seamount chain.


So super-ocean organisms may be stuck to near hydrothermal vents.
 
Actually the topic is ne. The study was estimating how many planets could support life. In fact, it was about ne and all the factors before it--which are necessary to estimate how many planets there are in the galaxy that could support life (that is, terrestrial planets in the zone where liquid water is possible).

Hm, yeah. We moved into the next one eventually :)

McHrozni
 
Turning from fp (planets), ne (Earthlike ones), and fl (life) to fi (intelligence), there's a LOT of evolution to consider.

On our planet, the evolution of oxygen-releasing photosynthesis was an important enabling step. It provided both a big improvement in biological-material productivity and also a much-improved energy source: combining oxygen with biological material. Organisms could use various alternatives to oxygen as electron acceptors, like nitrogen or sulfur oxides, but they are more dilute or limited to a few spots. Oxygen thus offered a lot of freedom. Using water as an electron donor also offered photosynthesizers a lot of freedom -- they were no longer dependent on iron or sulfur or various other awkward substances for electrons.


I don't know how important this is, but the emergence of eukaryotes offered improved management of large genomes. I say that because large-genome handling might have emerged in prokaryotedom if eukaryotes had never emerged.


But a big step toward the emergence of sentience on our planet was multicellularity. That's happened several times, and I recall once seeing an estimate of at least 20 times. But as we sequence more and more genomes, I think that we will eventually nail down how many times. Most of the cases of multicellularity are plantlike or funguslike, with slime molds having evolved several times. The slime-mold habit is one-celled organisms living separately most of the time, but sometimes coming together to make a fruiting body. It's evolved these times:

  • Eukarya
    • Opisthokonta > Fonticula alba
    • Amoebozoa > (several)
    • Chromalveolata
      • Stramenopiles > Sorodiplophrys stercorea
      • Alveolata > Ciliophora > Sorogena stoianovitchae
      • Rhizaria > Guttulinopsis vulgaris
    • Excavata > Discicristata > Acrasidae
  • Bacteria > Proteobacteria > Myxococcales

However, animal-like multicellularity has evolved only once, for whatever odd reason, despite animal-like one-celled eukaryotes being fairly common and diversified. Imagine sequencing some genes of some tiny obscure parasitic worm or some tiny obscure ocean-floor worm and comparing those sequences to other sequences. Instead of it being inside Metazoa, its closest relatives turn out to be ... egad! ... amoebas or dinoflagellates or ciliates or apicomplexans or kinetoplastids or euglenids or percolozoans or ...


So some planet might have lots of plants and fungi and slime molds but no animals. "Plants" and "fungi" and "slime molds" in a broad sense, as a grade of organization rather than as a clade, of course.
 
Living on land would be good for extraterrestrial communication. It would be hard for dolphins or octopuses to build radiotelescopes -- they'd have a very hard time with fire or electricity, for starters.

For some reason, plantlike organisms went onto land only once. Why no other green algae or red algae or brown algae (kelp)? Some of these algae can grow to impressive size.

However, animals went onto land several times: lobe-finned fish, insects, arachnids, myriapods, isopods, crabs, onychophorans, snails, earthworms, leeches, nematodes, ...


An internal skeleton is helpful on land, especially for growing very large. However, internal skeletons likely evolved only once, in vertebrates. So would other planets have lots of land animals that never grow very large because of their lack of internal skeletons?


However, grasping organs have evolved several times, and in a variety of ways. Tentacles, pincers, hands, ... even jaws. So that won't be a problem.
 
When I posted the former I was struggling to stay awake after a rather trying couple of days. I maybe didn't make it clear that I was speculating wildly throughout. I also forgot all about it till now. Apologies for the post and run.

If life is composed of chemicals it can't form in a star. Stars rip apart the very atoms that chemicals are composed of. Hard to have life when that happens.
Of course, but that's rather the point. Obviously we are wasting our time if we seek organic life there. But that's the question I'm asking- are we asking the right questions?
Hold on there. You are now telling me what I think, something you have no evidence for.
I disagree to some extent. I've read enough of your posts to have a fair idea of HOW you think, and on certain issues that lets me guess at what you think. You are a rather clear writer on how you think. Of course I don't know what you think on all specific issues,(I have a fair grasp of your thoughts about Skeptic Ginger, but no idea of your fashion tastes).I am curious about what you think on this issue , but wait for the question at the end, if you will. I do know what a number of palaeontologists think on the matter, because I've asked them. Blank and incomprehending stares is the common response, I fear.
And you're dead wrong. The reason I don't look for them is that they've never been found.
Indeed they have not, but there's a level of circular reasoning there. In the context of SETI, we've never found anything either. So it's not worth looking? I'm sure you don't think that, beacuse you said you don't. (Did. Do. You know what I mean).
Maybe they have been found and dismissed as natural objects because nobody was looking for them. You are not. I am not. Correa Neto isn't. Who is? If you found an out of place object, would you be likely to take it to someone for identification? And if so, to whom do you go? I'm not talking about a ray gun with "Made in the Grots' Republic of Betelgeuse" stamped on the handles, obviously. I'm talking chipped pebbles.
There are no experts on non-human tools. (That's probably wrong- but would people who study chimps or crows be any better able to identify a 40 MYA flint knife made by an animal we have yet to find a skeleton of than you would?)
Let me make one thing clear. I agree absolutely they have not been found (hence the term "fantasy") and I agree it's very, very, unlikely they exist or ever did. I merely feel it's in no sense impossible and bears comparison with SETI type research as something worth keeping an eye out for, however improbable. It wouldn't cost anything.
Do bear in mind I'm not talking high tech. I'm thinking Oldowan level technology , but non-human Oldowan level technology. Would YOU know how to identify such? I wouldn't and I know nobody who would.
We haven't even found chips. Nor have we found bone tools, which is far more damning. We know bones make good spears (we have a few bone spear tips in mammoths), and we know bone is preserved (that's what I spend my time looking for). We have found NO evidence of bone being made into tools, or of any other postmortem damage to bones outside of predation and fracturing associated with trampling and being crushed by stuff. You also have to remember that a fair number of archaeologists and paleontologists have worked on the other field's sites. I've done archaeo work as well as paleo; my boss has done far more.
NOBODY has done archaeology in the Eocene, for obvious reasons.
There are no palaeoarchaeologists in the sense I mean. It's a non existent discipline. But so is xenoarchaeology (for the same fine reason)- and until very recently so was xenobiology (which I guess is still more a branch of science fiction than biology)
But I'll give you a chance to support this notion. Please present a paper where a paleontologist says ANYTHING that you've said we're thinking. Or talk to one of us about this subject. But please don't tell me what I'm thinking without bothering to learn what I'm thinking.

There are none, as you are well aware. That's again the point I'm making.
Come on- how much fossil evidence have we accumulated so far of (let's say) Australopithecene cultural activity? In total. All species and varieties.
Enough to fill a large truck? A minibus? A bucket?

The chances of us finding any evidence of cultural activity five to ten times older, is vanishingly small. (Again, specifically excluding globally distributed high tech- unnatural isotope composition in radionucleides or the like- I'm talking flint scraper level here).

This whole idea for me started as a joke, (and I just read your mind there, so don't say I can't) - with a handful of shattered flint pebbles that were oddly out of place in a Lias limestone. An archaeologist , somewhat the worse for ale), commented that if he found them in a Devensian gravel, he would unhesitatingly classify them as tools- probably Neanderthal. Now like I say, drink had been taken. This was a coastal cliff section and they almost certainly had fallen from overlying drift and just got cemented into seaweed coated rock bt purest accident. They were just pebbles. Hell, it's a marine limestone, there's no question of these being tools unless they were used by marine reptiles floating on their backs and cracking molluscs on their bellies. But it has left me wondering many years later how we would identify evidence of primitive tool making from pre- human deposits. And the simple truth is that we never will if we don't look. If it ain't there it ain't and I am well aware that's likely the case. But are extraterrestrial civilisations any likelier?

Serious question for you-
Which do you find more probable:-
That there is intelligent life elsewhere in the galaxy now (whatever "now" means in relativistic terms)
or
That the evolution of intelligence coupled to tool using ability may have happened before in the one place in the galaxy where we know it has happened at least once?
 
Now to intelligence proper. That's rather difficult to define, but I'll use a concept of self and the ability to understand and generate human-level language. The former will be essential for identifying oneself, and the latter for describing how to perform interstellar communication and describing why it is worth doing.


We don't have any way of asking members of other species if they have some idea of "myself", so we've had to use the kludge of the mirror testWP. Can an animal act as if it recognizes itself in a mirror? For our species, the ability develops early, at about 18 - 24 months, though it can be lost in Alzheimer's disease and similar ones.

So far, various species have passed the test, like (other) great apes, some cetaceans (bottlenose dolphins and orcas), elephants, and European magpies.

Most other species fail miserably. To a dog, the dog in the mirror is not itself but another dog, and likewise for a cat.

So it seems likely to evolve elsewhere.


Language is a different story. It's universal in our species, to within the ability to acquire and generate it. It's also very complicated, as anyone knows who's ever tried to learn another language. It is also handled largely unconsciously -- I'm writing this without explicit awareness of the numerous grammatical rules that I'm using.

From the Link Grammar Parse a sentence page:
Code:
(S (NP I)
   (VP 'm
       (VP writing
           (NP this)
           (PP without
               (NP (NP explicit awareness)
                   (PP of
                       (NP (NP the numerous grammatical rules)
                           (SBAR (WHNP that)
                                 (S (NP I)
                                    (VP 'm
                                        (VP using))))))))))
   .)
I don't consciously remember "subject, then verb, then object" or "article or article-like, then other adjectives, then noun" or "all adjectives have one form except for this/these and that/those" as I compose what I speak or write, for instance.


Our species seems alone in having full-scale language, with the possible exception of dolphins. Their language has been difficult to decipher, but they seem to use names for themselves and for each other.

Most other species are far behind, even fellow great apes like chimps and gorillas. They can learn lots of individual words, but they don't seem able to get beyond simple noun phrases. Most other species are even worse.
 
Soapy Sam said:
Of course, but that's rather the point. Obviously we are wasting our time if we seek organic life there. But that's the question I'm asking- are we asking the right questions?
Show me how life can evolve without coherent atoms and I'll accept that there can be life on a star.

Indeed they have not, but there's a level of circular reasoning there.
Bovine excrament. There is NO circularity there. Many field paleontologists get cross-trained in archaeological resources identification. It's a job hazard--juvenile paleos and archaeos, at least in the USA, often spend time monitoring construction sites, and we tend to work together a lot. I myself have been an archaeological resources monitor and have collected a number of artifacts. My boss has done a great deal more of that (he actually can identify fire-cracked rock, something I'm deeply impressed by when I'm not thinking he's pulling my leg). I am fully capable of seeing tools in rock. They're pretty obvious to the trained eye--stone flakes have a unique appearance, based on the mechanism by which they must be formed.

The presence of cross-trained paleontologists in field sites such as the one I'm currently directing serves as the test for tools in the formations we examine. (In the formation I'm working in right now it'd be obvious--it's well-indurated and has been since the Pliocene, so anything we find during excavations below the surface is necessarily Pliocene in age at minimum.) This means that, as I said, we don't see tools prior to humans because they do not exist.

Maybe they have been found and dismissed as natural objects because nobody was looking for them. You are not. I am not. Correa Neto isn't. Who is?
I think what you're trying to get at--in a very round-about and back-handed way--is that we need to develop a better understanding of what life is in order to look for life. I whole-heartedly agree with that. I've seen arguments that liquid methane, which has been found on at least one moon in our solar system, can produce biochemistry, for example. We aren't looking for liquid methane, which is a serious error in my opinion.

However, I understand why SETI is doing what they're doing. They're starting off looking for life similar to our own. Once we find it, we can start exploring weirder types of life. There are enough planets that, assuming life is common, we should be able to use what we learn from other planets to find other life that's even more different from Earth life. The issue is that we need to start somewhere, and looking for what we know we can identify is as good a place as anywhere.

NOBODY has done archaeology in the Eocene, for obvious reasons.
There are no palaeoarchaeologists in the sense I mean. It's a non existent discipline. But so is xenoarchaeology (for the same fine reason)- and until very recently so was xenobiology (which I guess is still more a branch of science fiction than biology)
As I said, this is simply false. Cross-trained paleontologists like myself are fully capable of identifying stone tools, and even fragments thereof, in Eocene rock. If you disagree, please say exactly why. And I mean EXACTLY why--what SPECIFIC features do you think I'm missing? Remember, the form of stone tools will be dictated by the rock used.

Which do you find more probable:-
That there is intelligent life elsewhere in the galaxy now (whatever "now" means in relativistic terms)
or
That the evolution of intelligence coupled to tool using ability may have happened before in the one place in the galaxy where we know it has happened at least once?
Which do you find more probable: a 1:1,000,000,000 event or a 1:5,000,000,000 event? At a certain point, the question becomes meaningless from any practical standpoint.

I can say with a fair degree of certainty--because I myself have tested the idea, and am currently testing it--that organisms prior to humans haven't developed stone tools, beyond the rocks otters use to smash shells open. I can't say anything about life in the galaxy, so I'd say that it's probably more likely that there are other intelligent life forms elsewhere in the galaxy--merely because I've been part of the demonstration that the other option isn't true.
 
Sorry for double-posting, but I wanted to emphasize that where your analogy breaks down is in the fact that we know, given the materials, what stone tools necessarily must look like. There are specific features that must be present due to the nature of the stone--for example, there will ALWAYS be a bulb of precussion, and concoidial fractures in certain patterns. In every stone tool, from the first one ever made to the ones one of my coleagues is making now. And anything using stone tools, because they are using the same materials, necessarily will have to use the same processes. It has nothing to do with the organism; it has everything to do with the tool.

In contrast, because we don't actually have a good definition of "life", and we don't have any real knowledge of what life outside an earth-like system would look like, we can't yet look for life outside of what we know. We don't know the system, so we don't know what's necessary vs. what's merely a fluke of our history.
 
In contrast, because we don't actually have a good definition of "life", and we don't have any real knowledge of what life outside an earth-like system would look like, we can't yet look for life outside of what we know. We don't know the system, so we don't know what's necessary vs. what's merely a fluke of our history.

Also, if there is something that might qualify for a given definition of "life" that is necessarily beyond our ability to recognize as life, then by definition we're not missing anything by leaving it out of consideration at this point.

There's no point, for example, in looking for life that exists in another universe (if there are multiple universes), since there is no way for us to look for it.
 
Returning back to ne, I've found some studies of the question of the composition of habitable-zone Earthlike planets.

It's becoming evident that some sizable fraction of stars has Earth-sized planets in their habitable zones, though it's still somewhat difficult to quantify. The habitable zone is defined as the range of distances where water can be liquid on the surface of a planet, but does a habitable-zone planet actually have water?

And again, for purposes of the study discussed in the article in the OP, the number of habitable planets it was looking for was defined as terrestrial planets where water could exist. It had a novel idea (that cloud cover on planets tidally locked to their red dwarf stars could affect climate substantially enough) that might expand conventional definitions of the goldilocks zone to result in a higher estimate. It was not saying that this is an estimate of how many planets do have liquid water (and are otherwise habitable by us).

It was an attempt to estimate how many planets there are in the galaxy that could possibly have liquid water. (In fact, it was a modification of previous such estimates focusing on this one type of planet that could have liquid water in a broader range of orbits.)

FWIW, the blog article quoted in the OP cites a university announcement that has a link to the article. A subscription is required to get the text of the article, but you can at least read the abstract here:

http://iopscience.iop.org/2041-8205/771/2/L45/
 
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They're starting off looking for life similar to our own. Once we find it, we can start exploring weirder types of life. There are enough planets that, assuming life is common, we should be able to use what we learn from other planets to find other life that's even more different from Earth life. The issue is that we need to start somewhere, and looking for what we know we can identify is as good a place as anywhere.

In fact, the last sentence in the abstract of the paper that is the subject of this thread indicates a very practical application of its findings: we should use the Webb Space Telescope to look for this type of planet in a broader range of orbits around red dwarfs.

That sentence is, "The presence of substellar water clouds and the resulting clement surface conditions will therefore be detectable with the James Webb Space Telescope."

It's exciting to think that I could be alive when we confirm the presence of water clouds on extra solar planets.

BTW--am I right that "substellar" in this abstract means clouds on the day side of a tidally locked planet?
 
Hm, yeah. We moved into the next one eventually :)

And your position that we don't know enough to move on to the next factors in the Drake Equation is one that I agree with.

Currently scientists are making reasonable estimates on factors up to and including ne. We really can't say much about the rest of them without having these numbers first. Or rather--we can say lots, but we can't do much about the rest of them until we do something to refine these numbers first. In this specific case, we can use the Webb Space Telescope to look for substellar clouds in tidally locked planets in a broader range of possible goldilocks orbits around their red dwarf star.
 
As to the parameters in the Drake Equation, they are more-or-less independent. We could have a breakthrough in understanding the origin of life even if we are stalled on how many Earthlike planets there are.

I've done fl and fi so far, and now I'll do fc.

There are two problems there.

Dolphin-like or octopus-like species would find it difficult to develop the necessary technology, because of where they live.

Ours is the only species to develop interstellar-communication ability, and our evolution and history suggests certain problems.

There is an interesting correlation between brain size and social-group size in our primate relatives (Neocortex size as a constraint on group size in primates), and extrapolated to our species, it gives Dunbar's numberWP, about 150. This has led to the "social brain" hypothesis for our large brain size, that it's to keep track of a large number of fellow members of our species. That may explain our concern for social relations and our taste for gossip and the like. It may also explain why many pet owners anthropomorphize their pets, and why pet-anthropomorphism humor is so popular: LOLcats.

So it may be hard to get the interest in science and technology necessary to develop them enough to (1) develop the science to correctly frame the interstellar-communication question and (2) develop the technology that is necessary to do so.

On the science side, we've had the notable false start of thinking that Mars had massive civil-engineering works. This was a result of observing lots of straight lines on that planet, lines that some astronomers concluded were canals with surrounding farmland. Some astronomers were skeptical about the existence of those lines, and when spacecraft were sent to Mars, their pictures contained not a trace of them, except for maybe 1 or 2 of the largest ones.

On the technology side, there are some interesting curiosities.

Our species became "behaviorally modern" some 100,000 years ago, but we only developed agriculture since the end of the last Ice Age, about 10,000 years ago. Center of originWP shows where various crop plants were domesticated, and they were domesticated in several places.

So for nearly 100,000 years, no agriculture, just foraging, and then poof!, people in several widely-separated places started growing crop plants.

Agriculture led to cities and large-scale societies, and the next step was more permanent recording of information. Various people developed various tally systems, but from there to full-scale representing of language was a step taken only a few times, in the Middle East and Central America and perhaps also China. However, writing spread from those places not only by conquest and diffusion, but also by stimulus diffusion -- the idea that it was possible to represent language with marks was enough to induce many people to try inventing systems for their languages.

Writing was a valuable invention but it was likely rather controversial in some places, because preliterate people sometimes memorized large amounts of information, and that skill was devalued by writing. For the most part, we only have what users of writing thought about this issue, because it takes writing to make one's statements persistent. But we have a hint of a controversy over writing in Plato's dialogue Phaedrus, where he imagines a king of Egypt objecting to writing because it would make students' memories atrophy and because it would give people a false appearance of great knowledge when they were only reading off of writings. So was Plato recording what some in his society had thought about writing?

Science proved difficult to develop, being developed first in the classical Greco-Roman world, and then, after a pause of over a millennium, in Europe.

So in summary, fc may be rather low.
 
Show me how life can evolve without coherent atoms and I'll accept that there can be life on a star.
We agree 100% that organic life can't and by extension that any molecular life can't (unless they are molecules I never heard of). As you say later, what I'm getting at is that so long as our definition of "life" is basically "life as we know it (Jim)", we may be looking in a very small subset of the right places. I don't think stars are any likelier than you do. I just don't KNOW.

Bovine excrament. There is NO circularity there. Many field paleontologists get cross-trained in archaeological resources identification. It's a job hazard--juvenile paleos and archaeos, at least in the USA, often spend time monitoring construction sites, and we tend to work together a lot. I myself have been an archaeological resources monitor and have collected a number of artifacts. My boss has done a great deal more of that (he actually can identify fire-cracked rock, something I'm deeply impressed by when I'm not thinking he's pulling my leg). I am fully capable of seeing tools in rock. They're pretty obvious to the trained eye--stone flakes have a unique appearance, based on the mechanism by which they must be formed.
That's good to know. It wasn't part of my education, in the 1970s. I also studied basic archaeology, but that was just chance.
let me repeat though that all training in archaeology is, by default, in human archaeology, because there ain't any other kind - and that's the assumption I'm pointing out.

I grant all you say about the mechanics of stone tools, but nobody wastes his time deciding whether a flaked flint is natural or artificial unless it's both possible and probable that it could be an artifact.
Take an absurd example- there were beetles in the Miocene who established a global empire based on 1mm long flint sickles, shaped by the radula(e)? of trained boring bivalves. Who, in his right mind, is looking for tools amongst 1mm long flint flakes? Nobody . (I hope). But would anyone, cross trained or not, be likely to recognise a 40 million year old, non-human flint tool?
Sure, once it's under the microscope, the hallmarks of manufacture may be there (corrected for scale)- but is anyone going to look in the first place?

Bone I'd grant you might be easier to recognise, but decent preservation of tool marks on fossilised bone of that age?

If we know what to look for, we can identify tools. All I'm suggesting is that what we know to look for is based on experience of human tools- and while all tools, I do agree, will show some properties in common, the differences may be so big that we never even consider the possibility.

The presence of cross-trained paleontologists in field sites such as the one I'm currently directing serves as the test for tools in the formations we examine. (In the formation I'm working in right now it'd be obvious--it's well-indurated and has been since the Pliocene, so anything we find during excavations below the surface is necessarily Pliocene in age at minimum.) This means that, as I said, we don't see tools prior to humans because they do not exist.

I think what you're trying to get at--in a very round-about and back-handed way--is that we need to develop a better understanding of what life is in order to look for life. I whole-heartedly agree with that. I've seen arguments that liquid methane, which has been found on at least one moon in our solar system, can produce biochemistry, for example. We aren't looking for liquid methane, which is a serious error in my opinion.

However, I understand why SETI is doing what they're doing. They're starting off looking for life similar to our own. Once we find it, we can start exploring weirder types of life. There are enough planets that, assuming life is common, we should be able to use what we learn from other planets to find other life that's even more different from Earth life. The issue is that we need to start somewhere, and looking for what we know we can identify is as good a place as anywhere.
I concur, but starting with life like ours is exactly what I'm suggesting too. We know tool use has developed among several species right here. If fate had not dropped a rock when it did, tool use among dinosaurs may have been only a matter of time. We know some made nests. Did they have the sort of ritual displays modern bower birds do too? Far from impossible. We've all seen crows do some pretty complicated things. I do wonder if some of the Chinese sites might not embody "cultural activity" at a high (animal) level, if we knew what to look for. (Again, to stress- I'm thinking "likely" in the context of SETI findings being " likely", not in terms of "We are 'likely' to find Roman remains if we dig up any street in southern England. Orders of magnitude different.


[P]aleontologists like myself are fully capable of identifying stone tools, and even fragments thereof, in Eocene rock. If you disagree, please say exactly why. And I mean EXACTLY why--what SPECIFIC features do you think I'm missing? Remember, the form of stone tools will be dictated by the rock used.
Yes, they would- but to some extent they will also be dictated by the design of the creatures using them. But you miss my point. I don't doubt that if you found what looked like a flint core, surrounded by flakes, showing a pattern of percussion cones, conchoidal fractures , reworked edges and the like, complete with the flake-free backside space of the critter who made them you would at least sit up and scratch your head, but that would require a fossil erosion surface (assuming terrestrial animals).
Trying to think like an alien intelligence is tricksy, to say the least- but say you're examining a maiasaur nest. There are shell fragments on the ground.
Are they in random patterns, or are they arranged in any way? If they are, by comparison with modern seabirds, I would say they were likely pushed there by a chick grabbing its territorial space after hatching, or by a parent , "tidying" the nest, perhaps removing the organic shell lining to keep vermin away from the chick. It would not occur to me that the pattern of fragments itself had any significance. Perhaps it would occur to a modern cross trained palaeontologist, I don't know.
Bad example perhaps, but what I'm trying to get at is that it's precisely the things we never think of that are the things we could be missing.Does that make sense?
Which do you find more probable: a 1:1,000,000,000 event or a 1:5,000,000,000 event? At a certain point, the question becomes meaningless from any practical standpoint.
Fair enough, but this IS a pretty speculative thread.
I can say with a fair degree of certainty--because I myself have tested the idea, and am currently testing it--that organisms prior to humans haven't developed stone tools, beyond the rocks otters use to smash shells open. I can't say anything about life in the galaxy, so I'd say that it's probably more likely that there stoneare other intelligent life forms elsewhere in the galaxy--merely because I've been part of the demonstration that the other option isn't true.

Just one point- you (understandably) stress stone as do I, because over the time spans involved, not much else survives, unless fossilised. Tool effects might be another thing to look for. Butchery with a bronze axe does leave bones in different shape from butchery with teeth, but the chances of discriminating between butchery with a flint knife and teeth on a skeleton millions of years old...well, do you think it would be feasible? And if feasible, how many people would be convinced?
Let's face it, even if people were seriously looking for this sort of evidence, the chances of finding it are pretty small.

Still. Any time I wander along the basal unconformity between the Silurian and Old Red, I keep hoping I'll find a Betelgeusian Army Gazongo, casually dropped by a giant ant from a survey ship back in the day. (I'll keep you posted).:)

ps Doing this on a small laptop screen. Somewhere in there is a half sentence that went missing. I can't find it, but if you find a line that makes absolutely no grammatical sense (leave the content issue to one side for now) that may be it.
 
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We agree 100% that organic life can't and by extension that any molecular life can't (unless they are molecules I never heard of). As you say later, what I'm getting at is that so long as our definition of "life" is basically "life as we know it (Jim)", we may be looking in a very small subset of the right places. I don't think stars are any likelier than you do. I just don't KNOW.

Again, by definition we have no idea of how to go about looking for life as we don't know it. So I don't see this as any valid criticism of looking for life as we know it.

ETA: If your point is that we ought not quit doing basic astronomical observation and data gathering while we focus on the question of where life might exist, then I agree. We shouldn't be wearing blinders ("blinkers", to Brits).

I would point out that at the level we are now (trying to detect terrestrial planets that might be in the goldilocks zone for liquid water), there is a great deal of overlap between basic observation and efforts dedicated to the question of et life. I would also point out that missions devoted specifically to answering questions about et life comprise a relatively small part of NASA's budget. SETI (which devotes most of its budget to radio telescopy looking for a signal) is privately funded.

In other words, we're not wearing blinders as we attempt to answer questions about et life.
 
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As to the parameters in the Drake Equation, they are more-or-less independent. We could have a breakthrough in understanding the origin of life even if we are stalled on how many Earthlike planets there are.

Yes, we might learn that life is virtually 100% certain to arise anywhere there is liquid water for some period of time x, but still not know how many planets there are with liquid water for time period x. I doubt it though. I suspect we'll have to learn more about what kinds of planets there are before we can begin to calculate how many of them actually have life.

I think we'd have to be generalizing beyond the data set to make any pronouncement about fl before we have a better handle on ne. It could be that there are drastically different probabilities of life arising in the same time period even where there is liquid water based on any number of other circumstances. In other words, fl might have to be a weighted average of a number of different f'ls (the fraction of planets with various specific characteristics that actually develop life).

For example, it could be that the kind of planets described in the study the OP talks about (planets with substellar clouds tidally locked to their red dwarf stars) might fit ne in a broader range of orbits than previously thought, but a much smaller percentage of them actually develop life than more traditionally Earth-like planets. So while this finding could double ne, it might have a nearly insignificant effect on the value we get multiplying ne and fl.

And what we can test using the Webb Space Telescope, will only be the effect of this hypothesis on ne and not fl.
 
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Soapy Sam, if you really want to get into the details of the archaeological thing, we should probably start a different thread. However, I will point out that you continue to ignore the fact that the materials, not the tool makers, will dictate the form. of the remains I've mentioned. THAT is why I can say with confidence that there are no Eocene tools: because regardless of who makes them, the nature of the materials that the tool-makers must have used dictates that the same forms as human tools be present. ALL stone tools will have bulbs of precussion and similar features,

I should emphasize that I'm not talking gross morphology. The features I've mentioned are evident even on fragments (in fact, they're howe we differentiate between worked fragments and natural broken rocks). What that means is that given a flake of bone or stone we can identify if it has been worked into a tool. We don't need to see the gross morphology of it.

Soapy Sam said:
We agree 100% that organic life can't and by extension that any molecular life can't (unless they are molecules I never heard of). As you say later, what I'm getting at is that so long as our definition of "life" is basically "life as we know it (Jim)", we may be looking in a very small subset of the right places. I don't think stars are any likelier than you do. I just don't KNOW.
So work on it. Educate yourself. Define "life"--that alone will win you a Nobel Prize. It's not sufficient to say "We don't know it can't happen" in science; you need to demonstrate that it CAN happen before we can justify giving the idea serious consideration.

Bone I'd grant you might be easier to recognise, but decent preservation of tool marks on fossilised bone of that age?
I have, on my desk right now, evidence of extremely fine weathering patterns on bone. I'm talking sub-millimeter size. Finding evidence of pressure naping is trivial compared to identifying Stage 2 bone weathering. Same with tool marks. We have numerous examples of gnaw marks on ancient bone, and tool marks aren't any smaller.

Just one point- you (understandably) stress stone as do I, because over the time spans involved, not much else survives, unless fossilised. Tool effects might be another thing to look for.
True enough. We do. In fact, that became an issue last month. One of my crew found a bone that was thick, hard, and looked like a fossil. It passed the burn test, meaning little organic material remained in the matrix. But there were tool marks on the end, meaning it was just a really old beef rib bone that had been cooked pretty thuroughly. Tool marks are pretty obvious to the trained eye.
 
So work on it. Educate yourself. Define "life"--that alone will win you a Nobel Prize. It's not sufficient to say "We don't know it can't happen" in science; you need to demonstrate that it CAN happen before we can justify giving the idea serious consideration.
Computer viruses and other self-replicating software demonstrably exist, and I consider them alive. I realize my view is probably in minority.
 
Computer viruses and other self-replicating software demonstrably exist, and I consider them alive. I realize my view is probably in minority.

There are physical components of them--or at least, their environment. And at any rate, they don't exist in stars.
 
And even real viruses are on the fuzzy grey area of meeting nearly any definition of "life".

____________
So back to speculation about the Drake Equation. Rare Earth, the Brownlee and Ward book I mentioned earlier (that relied heavily on Creationist astronomer Guillermo Gonzalez) takes the opposite tack from the article in the OP. They pretty much assume that every possible characteristic of Earth and Earth's situation is necessary for life to originate and last long enough to evolve complexity. They say you need to be in the liquid water goldilocks zone, but you also must have a large moon like we do (to stabilize the planet's orbit) , you must have a planet like Mars (they think Earth life was seeded from Martian meteorites IIRC), and even that a planet the size of Jupiter is necessary in about that orbit. They also say that most of the galaxy is too metal-deficient for life to develop. And so on. Their conclusion is that simple life might be relatively common, but complex life, virtually unique to the Earth.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis


As I said, this Creationist-motivated approach was pretty well rebutted in Darling's Life Everywhere. One of the primary points Darling makes is that the Rare Earth hypothesis is not in fact a hypothesis. It's merely a description of what it took for our type of complex life to begin and evolve on Earth. IMO, that's sort of like dealing out a random 5 card poker and observing that the odds of getting that exact hand--that exact 5 card combination-- are something like 1 in 2.6 million. It's a form of the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy.

ETA: This is in part what's wrong with MHronzi's earlier calculation of the probability of a self-replicating molecule spontaneously forming from prebiotic stuff. He's assuming that the one that all life on Earth descended from is the only possible, but that's a post-hoc hypothesis. In fact, I don't think we even know how many self-replicating molecules are possible, and therefore we don't know what the odds of ANY self replicating molecule forming are. And again, even if those odds are too long for it to happen in a lab beaker in a reasonable human time scale, that doesn't mean it's unlikely to happen somewhere on the entire planet over some hundreds, thousands or even tens of millions of years.
 
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I don't have much of a clue on the final parameter in the Drake equation L (lifetime of interstellar communicators), so I'll pass on that for now.

But about the "exact sequence" argument, there is rather strong counterevidence in how proteins and RNA molecules with very different sequences can have very similar functions and behavior. That's evident from molecular-phylogeny research, where one wants to compare molecules with the same or similar functions and behavior.
 
We should add another S in the Drake equation for Swag. We know that species with a high swag quotient will be extremely capitalistic.
 
A
So back to speculation about the Drake Equation. Rare Earth, the Brownlee and Ward book I mentioned earlier (that relied heavily on Creationist astronomer Guillermo Gonzalez) takes the opposite tack from the article in the OP. They pretty much assume that every possible characteristic of Earth and Earth's situation is necessary for life to originate and last long enough to evolve complexity. They say you need to be in the liquid water goldilocks zone, but you also must have a large moon like we do (to stabilize the planet's orbit) , you must have a planet like Mars (they think Earth life was seeded from Martian meteorites IIRC), and even that a planet the size of Jupiter is necessary in about that orbit. They also say that most of the galaxy is too metal-deficient for life to develop. And so on. Their conclusion is that simple life might be relatively common, but complex life, virtually unique to the Earth.

Most of of these are reasonable. Moon and Jupiter act as gravitational traps for asteroids who may otherwise impact Earth and increase the frequency of calamities that destroy much life in a short time. Goldilocks zone is self-evident, metal content unprovable.
Whether these requirements also correct is another issue, but they are reasonable.

ETA: This is in part what's wrong with MHronzi's earlier calculation of the probability of a self-replicating molecule spontaneously forming from prebiotic stuff. He's assuming that the one that all life on Earth descended from is the only possible, but that's a post-hoc hypothesis. In fact, I don't think we even know how many self-replicating molecules are possible, and therefore we don't know what the odds of ANY self replicating molecule forming are. And again, even if those odds are too long for it to happen in a lab beaker in a reasonable human time scale, that doesn't mean it's unlikely to happen somewhere on the entire planet over some hundreds, thousands or even tens of millions of years.

It's McHrozni, not MHronzi.

Actually, I explicitly said there is more than one possibility for the said molecule, here:

* 20 amino acids with 3 nucleotides per amino acid and 4 nucleotides amounts to 7,5*10-37, but the genetic code is degenerated (making it more likely) and there are a number of combinations that would be effective is greater than one (again more likely), but in the early world you'll likely have more than just 4 nucleotides (making it less likely). The estimate I used above above should be accurate within a few orders of magnitude.

I agree we don't know how many possibilities there are, but I agree the number is greater than one - I assumed at least hundreds. I'd love to see an example though. We know what it could be made of, so there is absolutely no need to guess in the dark. Obviously this wouldn't mean this was the molecule that started it all, but it would prove the principle beyond all doubt.

McHrozni
(and not MHronzi).
 
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You speculate as the evidence accumulates. The evidence no longer suggests 6. It suggests there are many more planets out there with the conditions to support life and we have plenty of evidence evolution was not a one-off event.

Evolution is a process that started soon after life started on Earth. It has not yet stopped. So on Earth it is a continuous process, not something that happened once.

Is that what Skeptic Ginger meant? I rather gathered, in the context of his discussion of other life-supporting planets, that he thought there was evidence for evolutionary processes independent of the one-off continuous evolutionary process that we all know. Perhaps he could clarify.
 
http://m.computerworld.com/s/articl...18&mm_ref=https://news.google.com/news?tab=wn

Sorry for the mobile link. If someone has a better one please add.

One possibility is that life may be extremely common, but intelligent life rare. Our own planet seems to suggest exactly that. If we define intelligent as being as intelligent as we are or more so, then only one species in the 3-odd billion-year history of life on Earth meets that definition.

Back to the O.P. for a moment.

Wouldn't it be statistically more reasonable to determine some shelf of intelligence level which is below that of humans, specifically? With only one instance, it is less meaningful to deduct anything about the probability of such species to be present. In the case where there are multiple species that can hit certain criteria, we might gain some basis for comparison.

Of course, I could be wrong. I know little of statistics, in any case.

I'm sorry if this question has already been pondered. I haven't read the whole thread yet.
 
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