2026 Mid-Term election outcomes: US Congress

2026 Mid-Term Election Outcome: US Congress

  • Republicans retain control of House and Senate

    Votes: 3 27.3%

  • Republican House, Democrat Senate

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Democrat House, Republican Senate

    Votes: 5 45.5%

  • Democrat House and Senate

    Votes: 2 18.2%

  • On Planet X, Greens take house and senate

    Votes: 1 9.1%
  • Total voters
    11
Given how small the republican majority is, and how the president's party tends to lose support in midterms, I figure the Democrats are likely to take the house.

The Senate is a bit less predictable, since not every Senate seat is up for grabs. Although Trump's policies might cause some blowback (especially if they trigger a recession), republican voters are morons and are more likely to give the GOP a free pass. Furthermore, the republicans have a bit larger majority (relative to the number of seats in play) so can afford to lose more and still keep control.

So my prediction... Democrats control the house, republicans control the Senate.
 
IMO the US population will be so gaslit and the electoral process so skewed in the GOP controlled states that the Republicans will increase their majorities in both houses.

Trump's popularity will be just under 50% as people get used to the deportations and economic chaos and all problems will in any case bbe blamed on Biden and the Democrats.
 
The Don said:
IMO the US population will be so gaslit and the electoral process so skewed in the GOP controlled states that the Republicans will increase their majorities in both houses.

Trump's popularity will be just under 50% as people get used to the deportations and economic chaos and all problems will in any case bbe blamed on Biden and the Democrats.
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Many of the same factors (the gaslighting by republicans, voter suppression and gerrymandering in red states) existed back in the 2018 elections, yet the Democrats managed to increase their seat holdings by 41 seats.

And Trump's approval ratings are near record lows. (After 100 days, In 2025 they were 44%, in 2016 they were 40%, almost a statistical tie.)

Its understandable to be pessimistic... the MAGAchud are idiots, the supreme court is filled with republican loyalists, etc.) But I do think there is some hope that the democrats can take at least part of congress back.
 
My imaginary voter 2024:
Jill Johnson from Connecticut just can't decide between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Why is that, Jill?
-Well, I voted for Trump once and he was a disaster. Then I voted for Joe Biden and he went senile. I just don't seem to pick good candidates that can work the usual two terms.
- We think Kamala is in good health and has no real controversy. She will even take care of the border situation as much as congress will fund us to do. When we get past Trump. So what is the problem?
-I just don't know about Kamala Harris. I'm ready to vote for Democrats, but I would like another candidate.
-It's too late to nominate someone else and get them on the ballot.
-OK, then, next time I will vote for her when I know more about her as a president.
Click to expand...
Move on to 2026:
-Will you be voting for the Democrats this time, Jill?
-I don't know. What happened in the past two year that would make me vote?
-Trump ended democracy.
-Well, I don't know about that. I need to save up and buy a car. I can't afford one of the bybrids.
 
The populace is more demoralized this time, to be sure, but the fascists can only gaslight so much of the population. Heck, even a lot of the trumpkins seem to understand that the suffering they're experiencing now is thanks to Dump's tarrifs, since, you know, he's been taking full responsibility for them and singing their praises since before the election. He's also openly throwing his voters under the bus this time, like when he said it'd be really hard to fulfill his promise to lower prices of gas and groceries.

Then you have all the people pissed with the various cruelties he's inflicing on the population, democracy being torn down, etc. Also, let's face it, a lot of voters are just really short-sighted. They'll see rising prices and other issues and blame the current president.
 
i’d wait until after summer. tariff pricing hasn’t even hit yet, neither has hurricane season. how about government service cuts in the big beautiful bill?

he’s still coasting on the old paradigm.
 
dirtywick said:
i’d wait until after summer. tariff pricing hasn’t even hit yet, neither has hurricane season. how about government service cuts in the big beautiful bill?

he’s still coasting on the old paradigm.
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Government service cuts will be blamed on Biden and immigrants.

It worked for the Conservatives in the UK for 14 years. They cut services as part of "austerity" then blamed both Labour for overspending and immigrants for soaking up all the resources. The deeper the cuts, the more immigrants were blamed and people believed them.
 
oh i’m quite sure they’ll take no responsibility for it. but it works until it doesn’t.
 
dirtywick said:
oh i’m quite sure they’ll take no responsibility for it. but it works until it doesn’t.
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Well here in the UK blaming immigrants for cuts to services that were directly due to government austerity policies has worked for 15 years and counting.

Even though we now have a government which isn't directly blaming immigrants and who may reverse some of the policies, the British public are still of the opinion that it's because of immigrants.
 
A lot in the Sentate will depend on who runs and how they run. It's jsut to early to tell right now.

If we see the Ossoff of the last 6 years, then he should hold Georgia. If we see the Ossoff who first ran for Congress, Georgia flips.

If a real Democrat runs in Michigan, they should hold the seat. If they find another Elise Slotkin, Michigan flips.

If they run a real Democrat in North Carolina, they will flip the seat. If they run another centrist with the personality of a plank of wood and also happens to be having an affair with the wife a deployed service member, Republicans hold NC.

Unfortunately, Beshear has declined to run, so Kentucky is a pipe dream. That doesn't mean Democrats won't funnel tens of millions into that race so another moderate can get stomped.

Granted, Montana and Kansas are odd ducks. There may be a surprise in one of those states.
 
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The Don said:
Government service cuts will be blamed on Biden and immigrants.

It worked for the Conservatives in the UK for 14 years. They cut services as part of "austerity" then blamed both Labour for overspending and immigrants for soaking up all the resources. The deeper the cuts, the more immigrants were blamed and people believed them.
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While the UK government may have successfully played the "blame the Immigrants" game, there are some significant differences between the UK situation and the upcoming 2026 american elections:

- The US elections are mid-terms. This significantly changes voting patterns. The UK doesn't really have an equivalent.

- I am not completely familiar with the UK situation, but it sounds like the government has said "things will be tough due to immigrants". But Trump had spent months before the election talking about how he would "magically fix problems on day 1", about how "tariffs won't affect prices", etc.. He set unrealistic expectations about what would happen if he got elected, and that could harm them

- There are more problems than just immigration or government spending... the Qatari jet, Signalgate, Trump's rotting brain, etc. Those cannot be blamed on immigration. (Yeah the hardcore MAGAchud might be willing to forgive Trump, but there will probably be a lot of "swing" voters who selected Trump in 2024 who will be less-enthused about going to the polls in 2026.

- And even when it comes to the issue of government spending and/or immigration, the US government is handling things in a very.... abrasive... method. (I haven't heard of the equivalent of the UK government ignoring court orders to ship legal residents to foreign countries, as the US is doing.)
 
Segnosaur said:
While the UK government may have successfully played the "blame the Immigrants" game, there are some significant differences between the UK situation and the upcoming 2026 american elections:

- The US elections are mid-terms. This significantly changes voting patterns. The UK doesn't really have an equivalent.

- I am not completely familiar with the UK situation, but it sounds like the government has said "things will be tough due to immigrants". But Trump had spent months before the election talking about how he would "magically fix problems on day 1", about how "tariffs won't affect prices", etc.. He set unrealistic expectations about what would happen if he got elected, and that could harm them

- There are more problems than just immigration or government spending... the Qatari jet, Signalgate, Trump's rotting brain, etc. Those cannot be blamed on immigration. (Yeah the hardcore MAGAchud might be willing to forgive Trump, but there will probably be a lot of "swing" voters who selected Trump in 2024 who will be less-enthused about going to the polls in 2026.

- And even when it comes to the issue of government spending and/or immigration, the US government is handling things in a very.... abrasive... method. (I haven't heard of the equivalent of the UK government ignoring court orders to ship legal residents to foreign countries, as the US is doing.)
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Also, while I don't know much about UK politics at all, I expect the British politicians didn't openly throw their own voters under the bus on day one like Dump did. He literally stood there right after his victory and straight up admitted he could do very little to lower gas and food prices, after making this one of his main campaign promises on this for months. A politician playing the long game would keep pretending they were doing everything they could, while blaming the other party and various scapegoats for prices not going down. Oh, it's Biden's policies, it's migrants, it's other countries ripping us off when we import fertilizer and other things we need for farming, it's socialist taxes, but don't worry, DOGE is cutting waste and eventually prices will go down!

Also, even (many of) the MAGA cultists seem to be fully aware tariffs are directly correlated to prices increasing. Same with farmers who suddenly can't find farm hands, etc. It's like shooting someone's dog in front of its owners and then trying to blame the dog's death on chemicals in the water, pet-eating Haitians, etc. Kinda doesn't work when they saw you shoot the dog. Dump said he'd come down hard on brown people, he started coming down hard on brown people, the brown people hid, farmers' livelihoods are in crisis. Trumpkins are dumb, but apparently even to them there's a limit to how patently obvious something can be without them seeing it.
 
Ok, I voted: Republicans retain control. Not because I think that'll be the will of the voters, but because of shenanigans. Voter suppression will be rampant, and affect purple states with gerrymandered Republican legislatures. And some of those legislatures will vote to overturn results they don't like, and Trumpist courts will go along with it. It's also not unlikely that Republicans in the house will simply refuse to seat new electees they don't like, on various specious grounds.
Basically, I think we're totally ◊◊◊◊◊◊.
 
Also, given how the thugs now know they have a carte blanche for violence like January 6th, I expect both the election and the aftermath to get ugly :( . Think about it, the gravy seals and other thugs now know they can not only get away with an attempted self-coup or other acts of violence, but that they will be praised and rewarded for it by the state.

I hate sounding like a fear-monger or someone trying to be overly dramatic, but I genuinely fear for the safety of voters, election officials, and whoever tries to certify (if that's the right term) a Democratic win.
 
Trebuchet said:
Ok, I voted: Republicans retain control. Not because I think that'll be the will of the voters, but because of shenanigans. Voter suppression will be rampant, and affect purple states with gerrymandered Republican legislatures. And some of those legislatures will vote to overturn results they don't like, and Trumpist courts will go along with it. It's also not unlikely that Republicans in the house will simply refuse to seat new electees they don't like, on various specious grounds.
Basically, I think we're totally ◊◊◊◊◊◊.
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I also wouldn't be surprised if there's a Reichstag fire moment a couple of months before the election, leading to mass arrests of opposition politicians.
 
As others have said, I do not trust any future elections to be free and fair. They are already dominated by 24/7 propaganda across all major media, both "mainstream" and whack job. Oligarchs have total dominance within oh-so tantalizing reach. It's at their very fingertips; they are openly acting with impunity. Google owns factual reality and can now shape it to taste.

The best indication of what is to come is that Trump is now shafting his base in multiple ways, knowing that, as he has publicly said, their votes are no longer needed.

The coup has already happened. POTUS, SCOTUS and Congress have all been taken by those hostile to fair governance. The rule of law has been broken and is openly ignored. Imperialism is the new/old way of the world. Violent thugs are pardoned if they will bow and praise the Great Leader. The last redoubt against global tyranny, colonial Europe, is a weak champion. Now, with AI and fake news, a world Goebbels could only have dreamed of, a world uncannily like Brave New World, is here. Newspeak dominates, thought crimes are dug up off mobile phone apps and search histories. Once the violent and lawless nature of this Neofeudalism is fully exposed, it will be late in the game, perhaps too late, to unite against it.

All because of a fundamental flaw that has been there from the start: a hatred of seeing others benefit from policies that "should" only be for White people, and thus the craven betrayal of own self-interest, a cutting off of nose to spite face. Preys the Lore!
 
Segnosaur said:
While the UK government may have successfully played the "blame the Immigrants" game, there are some significant differences between the UK situation and the upcoming 2026 american elections:

- The US elections are mid-terms. This significantly changes voting patterns. The UK doesn't really have an equivalent.

- I am not completely familiar with the UK situation, but it sounds like the government has said "things will be tough due to immigrants". But Trump had spent months before the election talking about how he would "magically fix problems on day 1", about how "tariffs won't affect prices", etc.. He set unrealistic expectations about what would happen if he got elected, and that could harm them

- There are more problems than just immigration or government spending... the Qatari jet, Signalgate, Trump's rotting brain, etc. Those cannot be blamed on immigration. (Yeah the hardcore MAGAchud might be willing to forgive Trump, but there will probably be a lot of "swing" voters who selected Trump in 2024 who will be less-enthused about going to the polls in 2026.

- And even when it comes to the issue of government spending and/or immigration, the US government is handling things in a very.... abrasive... method. (I haven't heard of the equivalent of the UK government ignoring court orders to ship legal residents to foreign countries, as the US is doing.)
Click to expand...
Taking each of your well reasoned points in turn...

We do have local elections in the off cycle years and the Conservatives continued to blame immigrants and while they lost seats they didn't do too badly.

The Conservatives had repeated changes of leadership and each time the new incumbent promised to fix the problems of the last one, despite being a prominent member of their administration. Failures continued to be blamed on immigrants.

There were all manner of scandals over the tenure of the Conservatives but, like Trump's and the GOP's, a compliant media looked the other way and continued to tout the line that immigrants were to blame.

The UK government were equally forthright in their attempts to send asylum seekers to Rwanda. Like most American voters, most British voters simply don't care.
 
The Don said:
IMO the US population will be so gaslit and the electoral process so skewed in the GOP controlled states that the Republicans will increase their majorities in both houses.

Trump's popularity will be just under 50% as people get used to the deportations and economic chaos and all problems will in any case bbe blamed on Biden and the Democrats.
Click to expand...
I think Trump will be wildly boring and the social media will lose interest. Democrats finally master social media and get the house. But Susan Collins is still very concerned and the rest of the GOP senators will be clutching their pearls at awful things happening. But somehow hold on by one seat and then the VP to vote when Susan Collins is still concerned. She wins Maine by 2%. Less than 2020.
 
If past history is any guide, the Democrats should take the House, but the Senate looks unlikely. The Republicans are only defending one seat in a state won by Harris (Maine), while the Democrats have two seats up in states where Trump won (Georgia and Michigan). Even if the Democrats can defend the latter states, win Maine and North Carolina and Ohio, the GOP will still hold 50 seats and have the tie-breaker in Vance.
 
I still think the way things are going Democrats are likely to win the House.

But if Trump gets some sort of miraculous foreign policy breakthrough that might change.
 
If a free and fair election were held in 2024, TACO wouldn't have won a single state with more than eleven electoral college votes. Given that and how far down the nazism pipeline the country has subsequently slid, any Democrat being elected might be a miracle.
 
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