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[Merged] 2024 Election Thread

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Tero said:
Not the 30%. Trump is hated by a good half of the 70%.
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So, according to your reckoning, Trump is hated by 35% of voters. Doesn't sound like that exactly puts him out of the running.
 
No but every Democrat will pretty much vote and a good number of independents. So hatred of Trump gusrantees turnout. Trump base and insependents have to care somewhat for Trump. Trump has made it an existential question. The group has to somehow fear Biden to show up. It has not worked as well as with Hillary in 2016.

Hatred of Trump is bigger than 2016 and 2020.
 
Tero said:
No but every Democrat will pretty much vote and a good number of independents. So hatred of Trump gusrantees turnout. Trump base and insependents have to care somewhat for Trump. Trump has made it an existential question. The group has to somehow fear Biden to show up. It has not worked as well as with Hillary in 2016.

Hatred of Trump is bigger than 2016 and 2020.
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I won't comment on your overall logic because I don't understand it. I will say only that the assertion I highlighted above is dead wrong. Assuming Biden runs, I think that turnout among young, so-called progressive voters will be low. Or, equivalently, they'll vote for Jill Stein or someone of her ilk.
 
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jt512 said:
I won't comment on your overall logic because I don't understand it. I will say only that the assertion I highlighted above is dead wrong. Assuming Biden runs, I think that turnout among young, so-called progressive voters will be low. Or, equivalently, they'll vote for Jill Stein or someone of her ilk.
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So you think young people are too stupid to understand the risk Trump poses? :rolleyes:
 
Tero said:
No but every Democrat will pretty much vote and a good number of independents. So hatred of Trump gusrantees turnout. Trump base and insependents have to care somewhat for Trump. Trump has made it an existential question. The group has to somehow fear Biden to show up. It has not worked as well as with Hillary in 2016.

Hatred of Trump is bigger than 2016 and 2020.
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The polls say otherwise. He gained 2%. It's Biden who lost 15%.
 
Dr.Sid said:
The polls say otherwise. He gained 2%. It's Biden who lost 15%.
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Those polls mean nothing. Obama lost to Romney according to polls. News outfits promote pollsters so they can create scary news.

I predict record turnout by 2024 Nov. No polls show that. I know polls don't reach a good sample anymore.
 
Tero said:
Those polls mean nothing. Obama lost to Romney according to polls. News outfits promote pollsters so they can create scary news.

I predict record turnout by 2024 Nov. No polls show that. I know polls don't reach a good sample anymore.
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I'm not sure if polls reach a good sample. What would be useful is to know how many declines to answer they go through to get enough answers. It makes sense to me that only committed Trumptrash say they would vote for Trump at this phase. Without that key piece of "not answering" and who is not answering, you can't draw any inferences.
 
Tero said:
Those polls mean nothing. Obama lost to Romney according to polls. News outfits promote pollsters so they can create scary news.

I predict record turnout by 2024 Nov. No polls show that. I know polls don't reach a good sample anymore.
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Your claims then mean even less ..
 
I don't see anything to be gained by going around and around until the elections come next year. Trump is a mile ahead of anyone else in the GOP clown car and Biden is an adequately successful incumbent. It's going to be those two.

So until it picks up again, here's a game instead. If you could pick anyone and make them run for President in 2024, who would be a better option?

I'll nominate
Tom Hanks. He's already politically involved: he buys the coffee machines for the White House press corps. If he runs, forget the polls, the election's in the bag and America is the world's darling again, guaranteed.
 
That's actually a pretty good idea, although he's still near 70.

I had hope for America when Obama became president, but you've only gone downhill since those heady days of "Yes, we can".

Until it became "No, we didn't".
 
Beelzebuddy said:
I don't see anything to be gained by going around and around until the elections come next year. Trump is a mile ahead of anyone else in the GOP clown car and Biden is an adequately successful incumbent. It's going to be those two.

So until it picks up again, here's a game instead. If you could pick anyone and make them run for President in 2024, who would be a better option?

I'll nominate
Tom Hanks. He's already politically involved: he buys the coffee machines for the White House press corps. If he runs, forget the polls, the election's in the bag and America is the world's darling again, guaranteed.
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Hmm .. that would be nice plan B. And one which could be activated even near the election.
 
jt512 said:
I won't comment on your overall logic because I don't understand it. I will say only that the assertion I highlighted above is dead wrong. Assuming Biden runs, I think that turnout among young, so-called progressive voters will be low. Or, equivalently, they'll vote for Jill Stein or someone of her ilk.
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Maybe I used too many words. Trump in politics will be a "thing" for his base thru 2024. But it is just the same old thing. The fear and hatred for Trump, plus issues like abortion, is a much bigger factor than those people's love for Trump. A good 50% of the voters are still subject to all the influence of ads, leaders, people they know, events with Trump world.
 
jt512 said:
No. I don't think it is a question of intelligence, but of ideology (with which intelligence can't compete).
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So young people are too stupid to see their ideology is close enough to Biden's they'll vote for him. Are they too stupid to recognize Stein is a joke?

Since when is age against a person's ideology?


One way or the other you are claiming young people (as a voting block) are stupid. Anything to make the world as you want it: You want the outcome of the election to prove you right about Biden.
 
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Beelzebuddy said:
I don't see anything to be gained by going around and around until the elections come next year. Trump is a mile ahead of anyone else in the GOP clown car and Biden is an adequately successful incumbent. It's going to be those two.

So until it picks up again, here's a game instead. If you could pick anyone and make them run for President in 2024, who would be a better option?

I'll nominate
Tom Hanks. He's already politically involved: he buys the coffee machines for the White House press corps. If he runs, forget the polls, the election's in the bag and America is the world's darling again, guaranteed.
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Been some serious talk of Dwayne Johnson aka The Rock running.

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/nov/10/dwayne-the-rock-johnsonus-president-run-party

Imo... no more ******* celeb presidents please.
 
lobosrul5 said:
Imo... no more ******* celeb presidents please.
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Well, they gotta come from somewhere. The only people the DNC seems capable of coming up with are lukewarm turds like Charlie Crist. At least celebrities have charisma, and whole careers of proving their hearts are in the right place even when they're Important People. Tom Hanks won't do it, how about John Cena? I'd vote for him in a second. Leave the policy wonk work to the aides, give me a President who clearly and passionately gives a flying **** about the state of the world and wants to make a difference.
 
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yeah john cena and his chinese apology. you think that guy has the guts? nobody that would do anything for a buck should be president, especially wwe guys that are friends with vince mcmahon. you know who else is friends with vince? he was president too. take a look at the rock's twitter feed, it's just paid spot after paid spot. you cannot trust people who will hawk whatever garbage they don't give a **** about to their fans for money they don't even need to do the right thing later.
 
Pixel42 said:
Registered as a Republican (or Democrat) is not the same thing as registered to vote. So no.
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Then the nomenclature is confusing from outside.

Why not say "register to vote" to mean notifying the appropriate authorities that you are qualified as a citizen to vote in elections, and "joined the [fill in the blank] political party" to mean a formal political affiliation.

Because saying "register to vote as a Republican/Democrat" is both in one. It implies to outsiders that you must join a party in order to cast a vote.
 
Did I miss the undoctored photos or videos of Biden touching little girls' chests presented as evidence of him being a pedo or Creepy Uncle Joe?
 
Having posted them leading up to the last election I'm not going through searching for them again.

The subject is dead.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
One way or the other you are claiming young people (as a voting block) are stupid.
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No. I'm not. If I were, you wouldn't have to put that word in my mouth.

You seem to be unaware that young people have lowest voting rate of any age group. See here.
 
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Anyone who would vote for Trump could be said to have had a hard knock on the head one or two times too many.

But a sincere 3rd Party voter must truly have been lobotomized. That is a whisper in a hurricane, a mindless, futile waste of a vote. Third Party candidates in the US serve only as spoilers. One of my nightmares is that enough of the lobotomized give the win to the Orange Anus.
 
Lurch said:
Anyone who would vote for Trump could be said to have had a hard knock on the head one or two times too many.

But a sincere 3rd Party voter must truly have been lobotomized. That is a whisper in a hurricane, a mindless, futile waste of a vote. Third Party candidates in the US serve only as spoilers. One of my nightmares is that enough of the lobotomized give the win to the Orange Anus.
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Well yes. Saying that doesn't prevent Trump from getting elected though ..
 
jt512 said:
No. I don't think it is a question of intelligence, but of ideology (with which intelligence can't compete).
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jt512 said:
I won't comment on your overall logic because I don't understand it. I will say only that the assertion I highlighted above is dead wrong. Assuming Biden runs, I think that turnout among young, so-called progressive voters will be low. Or, equivalently, they'll vote for Jill Stein or someone of her ilk.
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jt512 said:
No. I'm not. If I were, you wouldn't have to put that word in my mouth.
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I'm not sure which "word" you are referring to but no matter. Here are your 2 preceding posts in the exchange.

If it's ideology and not intelligence then you are saying young voters can't recognize the danger their vote would pose if it allows Trump to get elected.

It is true, intelligence and ideology are not synonymous. But a voter would need a certain amount of intelligence to not let their ideology interfere with risking Trump getting back in office.

Your post reads like you are saying young voters wouldn't recognize the threat Trump poses, or, they wouldn't recognize voting for Stein or not voting could contribute to Trump getting elected. Or you are claiming their ideology would override their intelligence/common sense.

I think most younger voters are smarter than that.



jt512 said:
You seem to be unaware that young people have lowest voting rate of any age group. See here.
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I'm well aware of past trends. Are you aware of current trends or the fact the 2024 election is not going to be like any other election?
 
I think most younger voters are smarter than that.
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I think younger voters are exactly as smart as older ones, but will nonetheless have the lowest voting rate of any age group in the next election. In other words, intelligence has nothing to do with it.

Skeptic Ginger said:
I'm well aware of past trends. Are you aware of current trends or the fact the 2024 election is not going to be like any other election?
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I'm not aware of any evidence that the next presidential election will be the first for which young people do not have the lowest turnout of any age group.
 
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jt512 said:
...snip...



I'm not aware of any evidence that the next presidential election will be the first for which young people do not have the lowest turnout of any age group.
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You and SG are talking about two different groups, she is talking about the young people that will vote, you are talking about the number of young people eligible to vote.
 
Darat said:
You and SG are talking about two different groups, she is talking about the young people that will vote, you are talking about the number of young people eligible to vote.
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Actually, what I originally wrote, which triggered Ginger, was, "Assuming Biden runs, I think that turnout among young, so-called progressive voters will be low." I was referring to a specific segment of eligible voters, namely, young "progressives."
 
jt512 said:
...
I'm not aware of any evidence that the next presidential election will be the first for which young people do not have the lowest turnout of any age group.
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Darat said:
You and SG are talking about two different groups, she is talking about the young people that will vote, you are talking about the number of young people eligible to vote.
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jt512 said:
Actually, what I originally wrote, which triggered Ginger, was, "Assuming Biden runs, I think that turnout among young, so-called progressive voters will be low." I was referring to a specific segment of eligible voters, namely, young "progressives."
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I'm talking about both. There hasn't been a POTUS election like this in my lifetime. Maybe folks are already forgetting about the Roe reversal decision. And the Democrats are already using Trump's own words bragging about him being the one that got it overturned. Trump can't help himself bragging about anything.

Young Ohioans helped pass abortion rights, legal marijuana. Will they turn out in 2024?
Brianna Mack's phone was ringing off the hook when last week's election results came in.

Mack teaches political science at Ohio Wesleyan University, and she said students flooded her phone with emails when Ohioans approved Issue 1 and Issue 2. The next day, all they wanted to talk about in class was the outcome. The energy was palpable. ...
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Voters under 30 surveyed in a CNN exit poll approved the abortion amendment 77-23%, while 84% of Ohioans in that age group said yes to Issue 2, the marijuana law. The measures were also popular with voters ages 30 to 44, most of whom are considered millennials.
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Abortion rights inspire these young voters like no other issue. How they're fighting ahead of 2024.
Young voters will head to the ballot box next week with some of the nation's most urgent issues on their minds: climate change, gun safety and more.

But a group of young voters told USA TODAY abortion is the top issue driving them to the polls, even in this year's off-cycle election. ...

Choice and personal freedom: Why abortion is activating younger voters ...

Now a leader in her school's Ohio Student Association chapter, a grassroots organization for young Buckeye State voters, Lisowski said she struggled to get an appointment for contraceptives in the months after Roe v. Wade was overturned. Ohio's ballot measure this year includes language to protect access to contraception, a point Lisowski said is driving students to vote.

"Everyone might not need an abortion, but everyone probably could use contraception at some point," she said. "You just want to be able to continue to ensure that you would have access to that at any point."

The debate around abortion for voters her generation, Clark said, goes beyond one medical procedure and encompasses wider concerns about their own autonomy.
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This ad makes Trump out to be the piece of **** he is.
Watch the Veteran's day political ad against Trump
The ad plays first then it goes on to the Scarborough segment.


And if young people are concerned about jobs there is this new 30 sec ad:



It's a year out from the 2024 election. The news media is all about scandal and controversy. They play up those polls cherry picking ones where Trump is ahead by, OMG, 1 point. Margin of error isn't mentioned because they don't need to. All this naysaying, woe are the Democrats, whatever, is a fabricated news story. The media is who the Democrats need to campaign against, not the Trump facade.
 
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Lurch said:
Anyone who would vote for Trump could be said to have had a hard knock on the head one or two times too many.
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That's the truly inexplicable bit - like very intelligent people who go to church, some Trump voters aren't brain-dead rednecks.
 
Democrats and non-Trumpers need a better propaganda network.

Trump trolls dominate social media and Fox News dominates mainstream media. To me it's extraordinary how Democrats even compete. Maybe a good chunk of the electorate really does see how extreme Republicans have become.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
It's a year out from the 2024 election. The news media is all about scandal and controversy. They play up those polls cherry picking ones where Trump is ahead by, OMG, 1 point. Margin of error isn't mentioned because they don't need to. All this naysaying, woe are the Democrats, whatever, is a fabricated news story. The media is who the Democrats need to campaign against, not the Trump facade.
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The voters that are polled do not actually follow news. It is still a year to election and this stuff is not a part of the life of 90% of voters. So what is the basis of their decision? The polls, of course! The more negative polls they hear, the more they believe the polls. The current polls are just the result of a string of polls in the news.
 
Tero said:
The voters that are polled do not actually follow news. It is still a year to election and this stuff is not a part of the life of 90% of voters. So what is the basis of their decision? The polls, of course! The more negative polls they hear, the more they believe the polls. The current polls are just the result of a string of polls in the news.
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bold is mine

That assumes the news doesn't filter down to them. Or they might believe they don't read/watch the news because they don't think their sources are "the news".

Tell me, how do they know about said poll results? Where did they get that information from?

As for string of polls in the news? I fail to see the significance. :confused:
 
They only see little click bait bits of news. People are now used to seeing "news" on social media. They see the little tweet size bit and move on. "Not interesting."
 
Tero said:
They only see little click bait bits of news. People are now used to seeing "news" on social media. They see the little tweet size bit and move on. "Not interesting."
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Which was my point, they are exposed to the news. Whether or not they are low information voters is a separate issue. I posted 2 links to reports they are very much interested in the abortion rights setback.

Trump is not only bragging about how he alone got Roe reversed. He can't help himself and he conveniently ignores the fact he was a McConnell puppet but I digress. There is also a video of him saying the woman has to be punished.
 
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