Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[acbytesla]

TJMK didn't suggest in their write-up that the bathmat can be manipulated because it was not made on a smooth surface. I was stating that I think their write up proves that point.

They feel the bathmat is a conclusive match for Raffaele. That's not surprising of course.

I misunderstood you Bruce. Makes sense it was your point not theirs. Logic is something they are very short on over there.

 

[Desert Fox]

RandyN:
I have not read the whole thing but have read significant amounts of the Supreme Court document translation into English. Somebody tried to tell me that it would convince me of their guilt. I read the sections he said were especially compelling. The parts I read were not compelling (then he tried to tell me I needed to read the whole thing.)
I got two impressions from it. First was that they were telling the lower court to convict them. Second though was an attempt to baffle the reader with BS.
Imagine any motivation which comes out will be in a similar vein.

 

[Kaosium]

It took a full year for Micheli to write up his motivation report in Migninis famous Narduci case. More than 1000 pages IIRC....all to conclude that all twenty plus family, lawyers and other defendants were all completely innocent. (Mignini promised to appeal...dont know if he ever did)

He did, and he won, at least that's what the bunnies said, I didn't take a closer look because it didn't surprise me. If that's true the ISC annulled Mignini's own conviction, annulled the acquittal of his 20 victims in the Narducci case and quashed the acquittal of Amanda and Raffaele all in about a year. I heard the court at one level even made the double body swap a 'fact' in the Italian Court System. They bought that despite the fact Mignini dug up the body and it was determined by DNA testing to be Narducci that it was still swapped, and then swapped back before he opened it up.

'Tis good to be the King!'

 

[Draca]

draca

While I find Vinci to be persuasive Bruce, I honestly didn't find his analysis to be any more conclusive. I decided to rely on my own eyes. And after a lot of time staring at these images, my personal conclusion was....... I can't tell.

One of those two men admitted being in that bathroom that night and also mentioned that when he left his pants were wet. (not bloody, wet)

Doesn't that more than tip the likelihood of who the print belongs to?

 

[Kaosium]

One of those two men admitted being in that bathroom that night and also mentioned that when he left his pants were wet. (not bloody, wet)

Doesn't that more than tip the likelihood of who the print belongs to?

The print diluted in water (it's not pure blood)...

 

[acbytesla]

One of those two men admitted being in that bathroom that night and also mentioned that when he left his pants were wet. (not bloody, wet)

Doesn't that more than tip the likelihood of who the print belongs to?

I certainly don't disagree with your point Draca. I am simply saying that I cannot identify who that bathmat print belongs to by comparing it to the samples provided by Rudy and Raffaele.

 

[RWVBWL]

The opening....

Hi Grinder,
Thanks for the reply. As I don't know much about digestion,
I wonder why can't the mushroom(?) fragment help further narrow down the ToD?

RW - as I recall the piece of apple or mushroom was discussed but never nailed down. IIRC some speculation went on about whether there were mushrooms in the cottage frig.

Was there or was there not mushrooms in MK's frig?
Strange how something as simple as this can't be answered...

In the autopsy, Dr. Lalli noted the following: "... oesophagus containing a fragment apparently a piece of mushroom (page 46) ... stomach containing 500 cc alimentary bolus, green brown in which were recognizable caseosis (mozzarella?) and vegetable fibre ... empty duodenum, small intestine containing digested material in the last loop ...‛ (pages 47 and 48 of report.

From your earlier posting Grinder,
we know what the pizza was made of:

Robyn Butterworth:
Question: Tell us what you ate that evening and at what time and when you have finished eating?

Answer: We have prepared a pizza so we made the base, then put the c'abbiamo tomato, cheese, mozzarella, eggplant, onion perhaps, I do not remember what time we ate, maybe around six.

Hmmm, no mushrooms on that pizza Meredith ate...
Stranger is that we still don't even know if that fragment found was mushroom
or part of the apple crumble desert the English gals ate.

These claims were essentially repeated at the hearing on April 3, 2009 (see pages 36 and following the hearing transcripts, April 3, 2009) in which the presence of a fragment of mushroom in the opening of the lower stretch of oesophagus was confirmed, thus in a phase of non-digestion;

Meredith only had a fragment of possible mushroom?

Random thoughts:
If it was mushroom, where was the rest of the mushroom, in her kitchen garbage can? Did she take a bite and toss the rest?

Heck, did the guys downstairs have mushrooms in their frig?
Maybe after coming home, putting her borrowed history book and purse down in her bedroom, MK went downstairs to check on the cat, pour it some milk, and found some raw shrooms in their frig, started to eat 1, was surprised by someone else besides Rudy, a guy who might have been sitting in that black car seen parked in the driveway entrance, she was surprised, ran into Stefano's bedroom, was overpowered on his bed, messing up his comforter, restrained and at knifepoint forced back upstairs as Rudy sat on the toilet and, hey Rudy, surprise, surprise, look what I found, etc...

Were any partially eaten mushrooms found anywhere in the guys downstairs flat?

Dr. Lalli specified that [110] death was considered as occurring not more than two to three hours after eating (page 47 of the hearing transcript, and the adjustment described in the footnote on February 13, 2008). He stated that the emptying of the stomach occurs between a minimum of two hours and a maximum of four hours after the meal is consumed (page 62, transcripts) and also confirmed that the duodenum was empty (page 63). Answering specific questions from the defence of Raffaele Sollecito, Dr. Lalli stated that death
116
had intervened two to three hours after eating (page 47), while reaffirming that the emptying of the stomach generally occurs between two hours and a maximum of 4 hours after eating (page 62, hearing on April 3, 2009). He added, however, that the digestive process is influenced by many factors like the type of meal, cold, stress, physical conditions and so on, and that to his knowledge there were no reliable studies that could establish "by how much the digestive process can be changed by these factors" (page 86).

Grinder,
Do you by chance know how long does it take for something to enter, not the duodenum ,
nor the stomach, but the opening of the lower stretch of oesophagus?

Mere minutes? 10, 20, 30 minutes, 2 hours?
I'm sure one of you folks knows this answer.

What was Meredith doing during this time it took for the possible mushroom fragment to enter the opening of the lower stretch of oesophagus? Playing with her phone? Nope, she didn't text or call anyone after arriving home. Taking her wet laundry out of the washer to hang to dry? Nope. Taking a nice hot shower on a cold windy night before climbing into bed with that borrowed history book? Nope, not from what I can tell...

And what if it isn't a mushroom, but an apple fragment?
It does not appear that any apple crumble desert is in her stomach, so where is it?
Didn't Meredith have desert?

I'm more curious about this last bite of whatever it was that Meredith ate than I am about the start of her meal...
RW

 

[anglolawyer]

One reason I prefer this forum is that it is not committed to a view of innocence and guilt, but to an analysis of the evidence, as said accuracy is primary here not stating factoids to support a view. Also of course our mods are entirely independent of the discussion, so there is no banning people for disagreeing with the prevailing view (unlike in particular the pro-guilt sites).

I think this forum is worth keeping as the most independent and most factual, what is needed is more people coming here to discover the facts rather than to those sites which are in the most literal sense prejudice.

I regret I cannot put in the effort many others do. But I do applaud those who have worked long and hard to refine the facts.

Same here. I must have read all the books on the case, yards of original transcript and, of course, thousands of posts (and links) but there are still only a few areas on which I feel confident to take a position (apart from the overall one). Digestion? No. Luminol, no. The bra clasp? Not the DNA part. Cell towers, also no. Computer activity. No. The bathmat print, no. The list goes on but none of these defeats the collective knowledge of the posters here.

 

[anglolawyer]

It took a full year for Micheli to write up his motivation report in Migninis famous Narduci case. More than 1000 pages IIRC....all to conclude that all twenty plus family, lawyers and other defendants were all completely innocent. (Mignini promised to appeal...dont know if he ever did)

Also in the Sara Scazzi case, where they released the killer (the uncle) who confessed and provided details only the killer could ever know but who was released and instead his wife (the aunt) and his daughter (the cousin) were both arrested in a case about as well policed and prosecuted as in the Kerchers case...there has been no motivation report and it is well past the 90 day limit...which must be more a guideline than a limit going by those two cases that I know about. Rose has better details on the Scazi case I think.
This was the kind of information that Frank was great at finding the details on. I sure miss his reports. No one else seems to care or bothers reporting a story of how the motivation reports of some cases just get delayed...for up to a year certainly.

What does that do to the case? Who knows...in Narduci no one was held in jail...while in the Scazi case both women are being held. (BTW the women were found guilty)

It is Italy they can do whatever they want...worst that happens is someone complains to the ECOHR about the less than speedy process and ECOHR fines Italy and adds one more check in that violation column. And not a blessed thing changes. No one seems to get a retrial for a less than speedy trial (oh the irony)...not sure about the "no fair trial" violations.

It is Italy...no one really cares! Not even me.

The report is out. It runs to 1600 pages (which almost tells you all you need to know) and I expect we'll hear from Rose in about 15 years when she has recovered from reading the google translation of that much Italian judicial bull.

 

[anglolawyer]

RWVBWL

There was mushroom in the girls fridge, in a Tupperware tray. It's recorded in one of the crime scene videos. I wondered whether she might have taken a bite from one when passing through the kitchen. I was upbraided by Frank, no less, for musing on a guilter theory. I can't see why it is. But that aside, I don't know why we don't know whether it was mushroom, apple or something else.

 

[RWVBWL]

Thanks for the info AngloLawyer!
Amazing that this isn't common knowledge amongst most who discuss this case in detail. That said, I wonder at what time she might have eaten part of a mushroom and how it could effect ToD discussion. And I wonder why there is not identifiable apple matter in her stomach, just veggies and cheese, it seems, from what I learned from reading what Grinder had quoted Doctor Lalli from?

 

[RWVBWL]

Anoither arrow please...

Hi Bruce,
Thanks for adding the outline to the pillow, it helps better focus on Guede's actions.

Meredith's clothes did not just come off. Guede took them off. No one is trying to ascribe normal behaviors to Guede. Murdering and sexually assaulting a woman is not a normal behavior.

I do not believe that pulling a pair of jeans off a person from the cuffs of the pants would pull the underwear all the way off.

I do not have a visualization problem at all. I think you have the visualization problem. Meredith is not centered on the pillow. Guede could have stepped on the pillow after he assaulted her as he was putting the duvet over her body. Look where the pillow is. The duvet was also tucked under her body on one side. He may have tried to pull on it to put it over her.

We have no idea what Guede's exact actions were. We do know that the semen looking substance was stepped in by Guede.


I do not post here often but this scenario got my attention. Trying to claim that Meredith's clothes just fell off and that Guede sexually assaulted her on accident, has to be one of the most off the wall scenarios I have heard over the past 4 years.

The arrow points to where the possible semen was found.

You forgot to place an arrow where there is another apparent semen stain, which Rudy apparently stepped in, near that blood stain by Meredith's left hip, It has some of the shoe rings found on Guede's Nike sneakers:

Look at how much of the surface of the pillow is not under Meredith. Guede could have easily stepped on the pillow when positioning Meredith as he was covering her. Like I said, we don't know what his exact actions were.

I find it appalling that so many people have made excuses for Guede. The man murdered and sexually assaulted a young woman. Then he went out dancing at a club. He is a despicable person that will be out of prison soon.

Here's a question for you:
Do you know why Rudy's lawyer was arguing with the Italian Supreme Court back in 2008 that it was sexual intercourse that occurred?

For I found this tidbit from old Perugia Shock, date May 3, 2008:
Rudy:
The post-mortem report shows that the signs of sexual activity may result only from hurried sexual intercourse and does not confirm or deny the occurrence of rape.
Consequently, there are no arguments to support the accusation of sexual violence, of which I've been charged unjustly. Moreover, in the absence of sexual violence, the unifying reason for a collective crime falls.
Supreme Court:
It's undeniable that about the existence of grave clues of sexual violence the court has been brief. But this lack of argumentation is, in the sentence itself, evidently related to the assessment that this clue is not relevant for the purpose of affirming your evident and indisputable participation in the murder. For this reason, your claim that, without a clear clue of sexual violence even the subsistence of the clues of guilt for your participation to the murder would fall, is totally axiomatic.

Link:
http://web.archive.org/web/20100807000259/http://perugia-shock.blogspot.com/2008_05_01_archive.html


Weird how Guede says this to his bro Giacomo in 1 of the Skype calls:

GB: Like...in the newspapers it says that...well, you must have done something with her if...

RG: Yes but in fact, I'm telling you we did just ...oral stuff. Nothing, no penetration, because I didn't have a condom, we didn't do anything. And so it's all crap according to me that they said they found my...sperm...male sperm. Then I, that... it's not mine because we didn't do anything.

But then has his lawyer talk sexual intercourse with the Supreme Court.
And yes, those do look like semen stains...


PS - In Bruce Fisher's drawing above, isn't it odd to see Meredith's left arm and hand upraised?
What does it mean?
For you who did not see it, here's a link:
http://web.archive.org/web/20100806.../2009/10/defensive-strategy-for-knox-and.html

 

[Planigale]

TJMK didn't suggest in their write-up that the bathmat can be manipulated because it was not made on a smooth surface. I was stating that I think their write up proves that point.

They feel the bathmat is a conclusive match for Raffaele. That's not surprising of course.

My worry is considering how well machiavelli predicts the thoughts of the Italian judiciary, the motivation report will come out and say the blurred print on the bath mat proves Sollecito's presence. I think that an honest appraisal is that no identity can be proved from the bath mat. I am not sure one could prove it was or was not Guede's. I accept that from the size one could exclude Knox. But it will be osmotically linked.

I suspect the reasoning will be something along the lines of the Scientific Police have said that this is not the print of Guede. The scientific police are competent and honest and independent therefore their opinion is to be taken rather than the paid defence opinion. If the print is not of Guede than it can only be of Knox or Sollecito. Since the footprint is not of Knox it must be Sollecito. Although the evidence of the bra strap, knife and footprint are only evidence against Sollecito there is no reason or way for Sollecito and Guede to be present unless with Knox as the key holder, therefore Knox must have been present. This is a circular argument beginning with a presumption of guilt. Still it will have changed a series of indeterminate observations into significance by osmotically linking them, and excluding other more likely explanations.

 

[Kaosium]

Still happens in a small bu not insignificant percentage non overweight people

This has come up before, I hope you don't mind a brief summary.

If Meredith had diabetes, that would make her going 150 minutes (still well over the median for diabetes patients) without passing anything less unusual and perhaps it would make Grinder happier and make it easier for me to explain. It would not change the fact having 500cc in the stomach and nothing in the duodenum strongly favors her digestion stopping a half hour earlier if she started eating any sooner than about 7:00. All these scenarios with time and factors increasing possible lag time like diabetes just go to explain why it took until 9:00, it's the extra half hour that matters. That's what we're trying to figure, how likely it is those conditions were present a half hour later as well. Since they're unlikely to begin with, and there's a limit known as 'reality' as everyone must digest soon enough, every scenario must lead to the conclusion 9:00 is more probable, though if you input silly numbers you'll get goofy results. They'll still point to 9:00, mostly because if you assume a 5:30 meal and a 30 minute lag median that scenario would have expected it to start at 6:00 PM.

There are no scenarios that lead to a likely post 9:30 PM time of attack, saying the duodenum was molested can't yield much: there couldn't have been much in there, there's no reason to think anything is missing. Even if there was, it too just goes to make those conditions at 9:00 more probable, what matters however is that half hour later, and that's the absolute minimum if they started Naruto, ran pell mell out the door and started slashing the moment they entered the cottage. Grinder gives them five minutes so they can walk and get a few words in.

Every allowance is made to the prosecution, except they can't have that 500 cc and they must remember that half hour--and that it is all that matters. They still lose. They can slide around on the curve between two and three standard deviations with various different scenarios for 9:00, but it's the half hour which forces them to jump another standard deviation (or two for a realistic theory) which really matters. How likely is that?

 

[Kaosium]

Hi Grinder,
Thanks for the reply. As I don't know much about digestion,
I wonder why can't the mushroom(?) fragment help further narrow down the ToD?

Another possibility for that is it might have...come up...during the attack. I think Rolfe suggested that.

There's been pictures posted of the fridge with the mushrooms, I think Fine used to post them. It would not surprise me if that was actually a mushroom she snacked on when she came home, perhaps opening the fridge soon after she entered with Rudy in the bathroom. It could also just be misidentified apple crisp and the mushrooms in the fridge a coincidence.

 

[CoulsdonUK]

A long time champion in the ring, and for the wrongfully convicted has died. Long live The Hurricane!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/rubin-hurricane-carter-dead-at-76-1.2616026

How can the life of such a man
Be in the palm of some fool's hand?
To see him obviously framed
Couldn't help but make me feel ashamed
To live in a land where justice is a game

Now, all the criminals in their coats and their ties
Are free to drink Martinis and watch the sun rise
While Rubin sits like Buddha in a ten foot cell
An innocent man in a living hell

Yes, that's the story of the Hurricane
But it won't be over till they clear his name
And give him back the time he's done
Put in a prison cell, but one time he could've been
The champion of the world

Bill

I always thought Rubin Carter was a symbol of racial injustice and this more than anything was the motivation behind his conviction. Of course his 1967 and 1976 trials could never happen in the present day America justice system with its built in checks and balances.

Nonetheless a remarkable man.

 

[Samson]

This has come up before, I hope you don't mind a brief summary.

If Meredith had diabetes, that would make her going 150 minutes (still well over the median for diabetes patients) without passing anything less unusual and perhaps it would make Grinder happier and make it easier for me to explain. It would not change the fact having 500cc in the stomach and nothing in the duodenum strongly favors her digestion stopping a half hour earlier if she started eating any sooner than about 7:00. All these scenarios with time and factors increasing possible lag time like diabetes just go to explain why it took until 9:00, it's the extra half hour that matters. That's what we're trying to figure, how likely it is those conditions were present a half hour later as well. Since they're unlikely to begin with, and there's a limit known as 'reality' as everyone must digest soon enough, every scenario must lead to the conclusion 9:00 is more probable, though if you input silly numbers you'll get goofy results. They'll still point to 9:00, mostly because if you assume a 5:30 meal and a 30 minute lag median that scenario would have expected it to start at 6:00 PM.

There are no scenarios that lead to a likely post 9:30 PM time of attack, saying the duodenum was molested can't yield much: there couldn't have been much in there, there's no reason to think anything is missing. Even if there was, it too just goes to make those conditions at 9:00 more probable, what matters however is that half hour later, and that's the absolute minimum if they started Naruto, ran pell mell out the door and started slashing the moment they entered the cottage. Grinder gives them five minutes so they can walk and get a few words in.

Every allowance is made to the prosecution, except they can't have that 500 cc and they must remember that half hour--and that it is all that matters. They still lose. They can slide around on the curve between two and three standard deviations with various different scenarios for 9:00, but it's the half hour which forces them to jump another standard deviation (or two for a realistic theory) which really matters. How likely is that?

I agree with all this, the trick is to create a media narrative that defies Nencini. I regard 9pm as the definite time Meredith's digestion stopped, it is fixed, dinner time and murder time can be fluid, but not this. It remains to create a simple paradigm to explain that Rudy was in the house to stop the digestion. In my opinion it is the high velocity throw impaling the glass shard in the exterior shutter. From the car park velocity is necessary. From within the room velocity is both unnecessary and undesirable.

 

[Samson]

That should read exterior face of interior shutter.

 

[Dan O.]

I find it appalling that so many people have made excuses for Guede. The man murdered and sexually assaulted a young woman. Then he went out dancing at a club. He is a despicable person that will be out of prison soon.

You are saying that Rudy is a dispicaable person that recognizes what he has done and is being reformed in prison. I'm just pointing out the possibility that you are wrong. I'm saying that it is possible that Rudy did all those despicable things but doesn't consciously recognize that he is the one that did it. If you are right, Rudy might feel guilt for his past mistakes and take the opportunity while in prison to rehabilitate himself. If you are wrong, Rudy would spend his time in prison showing the officials who he thinks he really is but the underlying illness would not be addressed. In either case, Rudy will get out of prison much earlier than he should. Time will tell if the Rudy that emerges is a rehabilitated new person or the same uncurred menace.

 

[Dan O.]

The weird part of the bathmat, is that it really isn't good evidence. It's not a fingerprint with 20 points of similarity. It's not even a shoe print like Rudy's sneakers all over the cottage. No, it is a fuzzy footprint that could be countless people. In fact, we have seen only two other people's footprints, Rudy's and Raffaele's and from what I can tell it could be either of their feet...or hundred or thousands of other's people's feet. We never saw any other people's footprints. Beyond a reasonable doubt...hardly Peter. I mixed up the different prints of Raffaele and Rudy. And every single time I thought it was Rudy's footprint. That said, I couldn't conclusively say that was anyone's print. Only in the mind of a hardcore guilter is something that fuzzy ...beyond a reasonable doubt.

Have you seen the poll I conducted here on the footprint comparison?

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=189522

The poll was not announced to the AK thread so most of the participants were unfamiliar whith these prints when responding.