Merged Ukraine erupts in riots and general strike.

[Garrison]

angrysoba, I'm not calling the protesters "putschists" but the people running the current regime.

Well of course you aren't.

 

[carlitos]

Looks like "Donetsk People's Republic" has rejected the deal made in Geneva.
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Looking at some of the photos, some of the Ukranian home team that (according to Putin) couldn't possibly be Russian because they have removed their masks ... haven't removed their masks.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Looks like "Donetsk People's Republic" has rejected the deal made in Geneva.

No surprise. Neither is this:

The agreements reached between Ukraine, Russia, the United States and the European Union in Geneva on the vacation of roads, streets and squares in Ukraine do not concern the protesters on Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square) in Kyiv, Acting Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Deschytsia has said.

I bet he didn't read the fineprint.

 

[magellan]

Big surprise there. Luckily enough, defying a deal agreed upon everyone will only hurt their standing. A few more shenanigans like this, and they'll be removed by the population.



If they were fascists the court would rule in their favor, or the judge in question would find himself loosing family members, or being arrested on trumped up charges. None of that happened near as I can tell. Governments do things they must rescind due to legal challenges regularly, this is just a slightly more objectionable issues - but understandable, given the situation.

I told you this before, but you chose the straw man for some reason.

McHrozni

Erm... the "anti terror operation" failed because of legal reasons? No. It failed because the army just gave away their weapons and refused to do it.
(And the "national guard" who is more loyal killed at least 4 people)

I couldn't find anything about court challenges succeeding getting russian channels back on air. Could you google that for me?

A presidential candidate and a TV station CEO where physically assaulted. You seriously think that if they could get away with it, they wouldn't do more?

You are confusing failure to succeed with absence of intent. (Ukraine isn't in the hand of facists, but it is obvious that they are trying)

 

[carlitos]

Also regarding broadcasting:

Armed men put Putin on the air in eastern Ukraine

(Reuters) - Armed men took over a television tower in eastern Ukraine on Thursday and switched it to Russian channels playing an almost non-stop stream of sound-bites from a marathon TV phone-in by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Employees at the tower said the men, who were armed with Kalashnikov rifles, barged in after arriving in cars and frightening off guards by firing a shot.

TV engineers accompanying the men then took Ukrainian channels off the air and replaced them with five Russian channels.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Provide sources, carlitos. What's up with you? Maybe you don't want us to read this?

[...] Ukrainian central broadcasting officials confirmed that the group, who were assumed to be pro-Russia separatists, had managed to twice unplug two Ukrainian news channels that were particularly favorable to Kiev and the pro-Europe "EuroMaidan" movement.

They said that broadcasting authorities in Kiev were trying to block the Russian transmissions from the Andriyivka tower. "We are trying to restore things but we haven't managed yet," said one official who did not wish to be named.

The raid came after a decision by a Kiev court in late March to have providers temporarily remove broadcasts of some Russian news channels which can be accessed in TV packages. Supporters of the move argued that Russian state media was broadcasting potentially harmful anti-state propaganda. [...]

 

[CapelDodger]

Pro-Russian separatists defiant as Ukraine peace moves flounder
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-occupations-eastern-ukraine-kiev-geneva-deal

This caught my eye :

Visiting Donetsk on Friday, Ukraine's former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko denounced Russian interference and said that Russia's special forces had been highly active across the east of the country. She said she was in Donetsk to negotiate with pro-Russian protesters, conceding that Ukrainian and Russian speakers now had to make "compromises" if a solution to the crisis was to be found. She said this compromise could be achieved if Russia withdrew its agents from eastern Ukraine but warned of violence if it did not.

Tymoshenko – whose pro-western party dominates the new government – said that she was creating a "resistance movement" militia to fight for Ukraine's territorial integrity. This would be an armed force made up of volunteers with military experience, she said: "We will do everything to restore harmony and peace in our country and to stop aggression. But if it doesn't happen we are ready to defend ourselves … with weapons in hand."

About twenty-five years ago I was watching Yugoslavia unravel after Tito, and I'm getting a touch of deja vu. Ukraine is just as cobbled together as Yugoslavia was, there are rival nationalisms within the borders, there are politicians willing to exploit them, the place is awash with weapons and gun-toting militias of both stripes are meeting in bierkellars, getting drunk and ragging on the Jews.

This may be Putin's intention : to justify intervention as "preventing another Bosnia" after nudging things that way. There'll be no lack of Ukrainian nationalists happy to help it along.

The big difference this time is that everybody's paying attention, not just the Russians (who were in no position to influence events in the early 90's). That may help. Or it may make things worse. Frankly, I'm not sanguine.

 

[McHrozni]

Pro-Russian separatists defiant as Ukraine peace moves flounder
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-occupations-eastern-ukraine-kiev-geneva-deal

This caught my eye :

About twenty-five years ago I was watching Yugoslavia unravel after Tito, and I'm getting a touch of deja vu. Ukraine is just as cobbled together as Yugoslavia was, there are rival nationalisms within the borders, there are politicians willing to exploit them, the place is awash with weapons and gun-toting militias of both stripes are meeting in bierkellars, getting drunk and ragging on the Jews.

This may be Putin's intention : to justify intervention as "preventing another Bosnia" after nudging things that way. There'll be no lack of Ukrainian nationalists happy to help it along.

The big difference this time is that everybody's paying attention, not just the Russians (who were in no position to influence events in the early 90's). That may help. Or it may make things worse. Frankly, I'm not sanguine.

I think that Croatia in the 1990s would be a pretty good comparison to Ukraine today, moreso than Bosnia. A substantial resistive minority, with a much larger, well-armed neighbor to the east, who supports their minority in open rebellion ... we might as well be talking about Croatia in that time. It took about a year for sporradic violence in Croatia for it to flare up in full scale civil war.

Another thing, there's a claim that Russian special forces are highly active in Eastern Ukraine in the article. If true, this just shows no one should sign a deal with Putin ever again.

McHrozni

 

[LSSBB]

I think that Croatia in the 1990s would be a pretty good comparison to Ukraine today, moreso than Bosnia. A substantial resistive minority, with a much larger, well-armed neighbor to the east, who supports their minority in open rebellion ... we might as well be talking about Croatia in that time. It took about a year for sporradic violence in Croatia for it to flare up in full scale civil war.

Another thing, there's a claim that Russian special forces are highly active in Eastern Ukraine in the article. If true, this just shows no one should sign a deal with Putin ever again.

McHrozni

I think a comparison to Mexico in the 19th century could be made: Crimea is like Texas - a vocal "ethnic majority" stirs up secession, and then joins the U.S. If Russia ends up "buying" East Ukraine, you have your Gadsen Purchase.

 

[McHrozni]

I think a comparison to Mexico in the 19th century could be made: Crimea is like Texas - a vocal "ethnic majority" stirs up secession, and then joins the U.S. If Russia ends up "buying" East Ukraine, you have your Gadsen Purchase.

There's a difference between majority and minority. In fact, they're the opposite. So no, a comparison on Texas on those grounds isn't all that good. With Croatia on the other hand, it is rather good. Croatia is way more recent than Texas revolution as well.

McHrozni

 

[CapelDodger]

I think that Croatia in the 1990s would be a pretty good comparison to Ukraine today, moreso than Bosnia.

I agree. Bosnia is far better known, though, so is more likely to feature in rhetoric, headlines and sound-bites.

Another thing, there's a claim that Russian special forces are highly active in Eastern Ukraine in the article.

I doubt there's any need for special forces, but there are surely Russian agents involved. As we know, the KGB is embedded in Russia's political and economic spheres (from Putin down), and establishing clandestine organisations is not only their special expertise but their instinct. They'll have organised "stay-behind" cells from Day One of Ukraine and now they're activating them. That's the way it looks to me, anyway.

The probability of things getting out of hand is, I think, very close to 1.

 

[CapelDodger]

I think a comparison to Mexico in the 19th century could be made: Crimea is like Texas - a vocal "ethnic majority" stirs up secession, and then joins the U.S.

The Texans were recently arrived (and arriving) settlers, which is not at all like the Central European situation. In the Ukraine the settling was pretty much finished by 1900 so both the populations involved are endemic.

 

[LSSBB]

The Texans were recently arrived (and arriving) settlers, which is not at all like the Central European situation. In the Ukraine the settling was pretty much finished by 1900 so both the populations involved are endemic.

Well, the time line is a valid distinction. The main point of comparison for me is the expansionist neighboring country taking advantage.

 

[CapelDodger]

The main point of comparison for me is the expansionist neighboring country taking advantage.

It wasn't the US which instigated the Texan uprising, it was the Texans (Texicans? I'm calling up some dusty memories here) themselves so if the analogy holds the uprising in Ukraine would be home-grown. Which may actually be true; Russia may be reacting rather than acting. It doesn't seem very likely, though.

Russians like Putin never accepted the post-Soviet borders as legitimate or just, and in the case of Ukraine were always a guarantee of trouble. Dividing the USSR on the existing administrative borders was ludicrous, but it was quick and easy and left everybody free to concentrate on thievery. Everything worth stealing's been stolen now so there's time to address the issue. Time to consign Yeltsin's legacy of national shame to the waste-bin of history yadda yadda.

Or maybe Crimea's enough for now and the rest is intended as bluff to be negotiated away. In which case results may not match intentions as events generate their own momentum.

Not Game of Thrones quality but still a story worth following.

 

[angrysoba]

I thought it might be interesting to read the full text of the Geneva deal:

All sides must refrain from any violence, intimidation or provocative actions. The participants strongly condemned and rejected all expressions of extremism, racism and religious intolerance, including anti-semitism.

All illegal armed groups must be disarmed; all illegally seized buildings must be returned to legitimate owners; all illegally occupied streets, squares and other public places in Ukrainian cities and towns must be vacated.

Amnesty will be granted to protestors and to those who have left buildings and other public places and surrendered weapons, with the exception of those found guilty of capital crimes.

It was agreed that the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission should play a leading role in assisting Ukrainian authorities and local communities in the immediate implementation of these de-escalation measures wherever they are needed most, beginning in the coming days. The U.S., E.U. and Russia commit to support this mission, including by providing monitors.

The announced constitutional process will be inclusive, transparent and accountable. It will include the immediate establishment of a broad national dialogue, with outreach to all of Ukraine’s regions and political constituencies, and allow for the consideration of public comments and proposed amendments.

The participants underlined the importance of economic and financial stability in Ukraine and would be ready to discuss additional support as the above steps are implemented.

 

[McHrozni]

I agree. Bosnia is far better known, though, so is more likely to feature in rhetoric, headlines and sound-bites.

True. Unfortunate, but entirely survivable

I doubt there's any need for special forces, but there are surely Russian agents involved. As we know, the KGB is embedded in Russia's political and economic spheres (from Putin down), and establishing clandestine organisations is not only their special expertise but their instinct. They'll have organised "stay-behind" cells from Day One of Ukraine and now they're activating them. That's the way it looks to me, anyway.

The probability of things getting out of hand is, I think, very close to 1.

Hm, yes. Special forces are usually a sub-part of the military or police, this is more of agent provocetur work - aka spies.

McHrozni

 

[CapelDodger]

Speaking of provocateurs :

Ukraine crisis: Geneva deal hangs by a thread after deaths in Slavyansk
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/20/ukraine-crisis-geneva-deal-slavyansk

Separatist militiamen near Slavyansk told Reuters that a convoy of four vehicles had approached their checkpoint at about 2am and opened fire.

"We had three dead, four wounded," one of the separatist fighters, Vladimir, told Reuters at the checkpoint, where there were two burnt-out jeeps.

He said the separatists had returned fire and killed two of the attackers, who he said were members of Right Sector, a group loosely aligned with the government in Kiev. Slavyansk has been controlled by separatists since last weekend. In Kiev, the interior ministry said one person had been killed and three injured in an armed clash. It said police were trying to establish more details of what happened.

Illustrating the dangers of non-government actors who see advantage in more conflict, not less. Whether or not Right Sector were actually involved there'll be a constituency ready to believe they were, and perhaps retaliate.

As we saw in Croatia it's terrifyingly easy to generate inter-communal hatred when there's no firm central authority. Other examples are Northern Ireland in the late 60's and Kashmir in the early 90's. Atrocity, counter-atrocity, Armageddon.

 

[CapelDodger]

I thought it might be interesting to read the full text of the Geneva deal:

Indeed. It does leave room to argue that all occupiers should comply; did the diplomats not notice that? I'm sure Lavrov did, but he may not have pointed it out.

 

[magellan]

Indeed. It does leave room to argue that all occupiers should comply; did the diplomats not notice that? I'm sure Lavrov did, but he may not have pointed it out.

No, it doesn't leave room.
The word all is in there, refering to "occupied places and buildings"
The only thing where one might have an argument is wether the "National guard" constitutes an "illegaly armed group".

 

[angrysoba]

Speaking of provocateurs :

Ukraine crisis: Geneva deal hangs by a thread after deaths in Slavyansk
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/20/ukraine-crisis-geneva-deal-slavyansk


Illustrating the dangers of non-government actors who see advantage in more conflict, not less. Whether or not Right Sector were actually involved there'll be a constituency ready to believe they were, and perhaps retaliate.

As we saw in Croatia it's terrifyingly easy to generate inter-communal hatred when there's no firm central authority. Other examples are Northern Ireland in the late 60's and Kashmir in the early 90's. Atrocity, counter-atrocity, Armageddon.

Yes, it won't take very many people to drag everyone else into a disastrous conflict.

Also interesting was this:

A poll published on Saturday suggested that the majority of inhabitants in Ukraine's restive east, while suspicious of Kiev's authorities, had no desire to be subsumed into the Russian Federation.

The Russian-language Weekly Mirror newspaper said 52.2% of those surveyed for a poll in the separatist hub of Donetsk by Kiev's Institute for International Sociology were against coming under Russian rule, while 27.5% were in favour.