Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[acbytesla]

Yes and it could be possible that the meal "started" when they put the pizza in the oven. They arrived around 4 pm and looked at pictures and put together the pizza and started the video.

One thing is certain and that is the 9:05 attack time is possible and therefore probable.

What is impossible is that the TOD was after 11 no matter when they ate.

The interview with Sophie in court refers to a Feb 8 2008 interview not one before.

Anglo you are right that all these interviews with the PLE should be in the defense's hands.

Really it is highly unlikely that the TOD was after 10:00 PM and it is more in the 90 percent range it was before 9:30.

 

[Grinder]

Really it is highly unlikely that the TOD was after 10:00 PM and it is more in the 90 percent range it was before 9:30.

Since we really don't know when Meredith started eating, I don't see how a certainty of 90% can be put on 9:30. If it makes you feel good then that's great.

There is something amiss with the information we have or Meredith's system wasn't working well at all which trumps estimates based on a normal system

While there are people here that wish to doubt Lalli's ability to do a simple BAC test they are fine with his analysis on her digestive health.

As I said earlier it would be great to see the same kind of expert analysis of this element as we had with the DNA. Too bad the defense didn't request an independent report on this.

Looks like those first two phone calls never connected with the tower.

 

[Samson]

Since we really don't know when Meredith started eating, I don't see how a certainty of 90% can be put on 9:30. If it makes you feel good then that's great.

There is something amiss with the information we have or Meredith's system wasn't working well at all which trumps estimates based on a normal system

While there are people here that wish to doubt Lalli's ability to do a simple BAC test they are fine with his analysis on her digestive health.

As I said earlier it would be great to see the same kind of expert analysis of this element as we had with the DNA. Too bad the defense didn't request an independent report on this.

Looks like those first two phone calls never connected with the tower.

What must be deemed helpful is that no one has officially put the meal commencement beyond 7, neither the prosecution, Massei or the Britbrats. Taken with Naruto it looks like 1% possibility (not probability) of involvement gets across the line, as in Planagale's statistical proposition (t lag 150 mins).

 

[RWVBWL]

On her knees?

Greetings,
Since the TOD discussion here still continues without abate, for anyone interested I'd like to continue onward with a different direction to the discussion of Miss Kercher's murder and rape. For who knows, maybe it'll help provide a better timeline of events...

As I've seen quite a few shark attack photographs,
so seeing the blood doesn't bother me, BUT knowing what Miss Kercher suffered before her death, does.

I was just reading from this,
Interpreting the blood and struggle evidence in Meredith’s room.
By Ron Hendry

Link:
http://www.injusticeinperugia.org/RonHendry8.html, which discusses

Heavy blood deposits in front of and about the wardrobe closet indicated that it was the site where Meredith began bleeding heavily from the mortal wound to her throat. The bloodstains suggest she was upright on her knees and facing the nightstand with the killer standing behind and having firm control of her head with one hand while inflicting the mortal wound with the other.

A circular arc of blood in front of the wardrobe closet appeared to be the last blood expulsion in that area. Soon after being mortally wounded, Bloodstain evidence suggests that Meredith collapsed on her right side, facing the wardrobe closet, at which point the killer grabbed her by the blue sweatshirt she was wearing and began to pull her in a counterclockwise arc, eventually moving her to the spot where she was found.

What do you think?
If Meredit was facing the nightstand, and was stabbed on the left side of her throat, would there be more blood near her bed,than say her closet?

I've looked at photos of her sweatshirt, shouldn't there be much, much more blood on it if she had it on when stabbed? I keep this in mind as I wonder about the blood on her arms, her hands. What about her pants, as RandyN noted recently. They are not very bloody, nor are her socks, her shoes.

If someone else was restraing MK, with her arms behind her as she was stabbed in her throat, might that help explain the lack of her right hand, her sweatshirt, her pants, etc, not being very bloody?

A couple more questions for you, the jury in the court of public opinion:
Do you think that if this crime was committed alone by Rudy Guede, how did the attack happen? Can you visualize a detailed theory, as Italian PM Mignini did?

Was Guede standing or knelling behind Meredith when he stabbed her and was she on her knees as Hendry suggests? Was she bent over? Where were her hands, her arms? Did Guede have the knife in his right hand or left? Were there lights on or did this happen in the dark? After Miss Kercher was stabbed in the throat, Guede or somebody else put a knife down on her bed. I'd speculate that this was Guede, because he also, apparently went thru Meredith's purse nearby. But when did he do so? Before or after he finished undressing MK, raped her and then went to the bathroom to clean-up?

If he put the knife down while Meredith was alive, why don't I read of more blood on her hands, her arms, her clothing, shouldn't she have been cluthing her fatally wounded throat when Guede put the knife down and went to fetch towels from the bathroom to save her?

Was she still alive when undressed, or when raped?
Or had early rigor mortis set in, with her left arm and hand pointing skywards, err outwards, as if she had lain on it on her left side her as she died? Which, when she was turned over and placed on her back with a pillow underneath her, allowed her left arm and hand to point skyward?

Most believe that Guede left a smeared, blooded-water foot imprint on the bathroom mat, did Guede leave this bathmat stain before or after he brought the 3 towels into Meredith's bedroom? But why don't I see many more diluted bloody water drips from his socks or pants in the bathroom or the hallway or Meredith's bedroom? Or am I just blind or forgetful? For I know that a real clean-up never happened in Meredith flat that night after she was murdered and raped...
Thoughts?
RW

 

[Chris_Halkides]

The Notebook

If it is certain that they started eating before starting the film, then 6:30 is just about as late as the meal could start, given the running time of The Notebook, which is in the vicinity 121-123 minutes IIRC.

 

[Kaosium]

I went to look after you called me out on the Massei quote which was the first I found, not a choice I made.

The difference made me curious and I found Introna's own testimony.

I agree with you, his thinking seems odd.

I've said it before and will again, it seems as if the Italians' minds work differently. Three compatibles equals a match, etc.

It looks to me that he's just saying that he made an allowance for every possible prosecution argument and there's still no way you can get to a ToD of 11:45 even with Lalli's original (mistaken) estimate. It's a range where roughly the first half (left side) of the curve the percentages go up, and the second half (right) of the curve the percentages go down making the middle of the curve where it's most likely.

If you only take the right side of the curve because you've eliminated the possibility it happened before a specific time, 9PM in this case, then the earliest figures will be the highest probabilities and will descend with every time interval after 9 PM until they hit near zero around 9:30 PM.

 

[Grinder]

What must be deemed helpful is that no one has officially put the meal commencement beyond 7, neither the prosecution, Massei or the Britbrats. Taken with Naruto it looks like 1% possibility (not probability) of involvement gets across the line, as in Planagale's statistical proposition (t lag 150 mins).

Sorry but this is just bull. I'm reading the testimony of the girls and they are very vague about the evening including the times.

You have no idea what the percentage of probability or possibility is.

Once again the question of why no expert has come forward in the same way that they did over the DNA is telling to me.

Something is off about what we are supposed to know. When they ate, whether there was something in the duodenum or if Meredith's system was not operating well.

The 150 minutes makes her TOD before she arrived home if you choose to accept the 6 pm dinner time. Even the 6:30 time has TOD ten minutes before arriving home.

 

[Grinder]

If it is certain that they started eating before starting the film, then 6:30 is just about as late as the meal could start, given the running time of The Notebook, which is in the vicinity 121-123 minutes IIRC.

I suggest you read the testimony of the girls.

There is no way they were paying attention to Meredith eating. They aren't specifically even asked about her eating or how much she ate.

They do ask about the condoms and the vibrator. They ask about the toilet issues.

 

[JREF2010]

I think he's saying that Naruto crashed, and then they immediately ran out of the house, murdered Kercher, and then ran to the square where Curatalo noticed them, although his "9:27" thing must be off a bit.

LOL. I'll bet Nencini is fit to be tied right about now.

Its sickening how the prosecution changes their entire scenario for the persecution each time. Its unfair how this is allowed by the courts.
I dont think the obstinate persecutors ever feel any remorse for the damage they caused by their incorrect and ignorant vindictive attacks.

Then from a forum perspective, Crini is really bringing in, once again, more agreement of what the defense has been struggling to get the ignorant obstinate prosecution to grasp for a long time. Then the prosecution acts as if this is his discovery, of the 10:13pm call, never giving credit that the defense had been saying this for a long long time during the other primitive trials. For years the Hate mongers have been screaming about 11:30, always later to align with their other garbage ignorant persecution, for example. Or the phone was inside as Meredith played with it, how stupid? yes...so Crini just sweeps it away as if the Witch Hunters never said it.

So now, as if the prosecution knew all along, the crime was earlier.

What a sickening legal system Italy has.

 

[Samson]

Sorry but this is just bull. I'm reading the testimony of the girls and they are very vague about the evening including the times.

You have no idea what the percentage of probability or possibility is.

Once again the question of why no expert has come forward in the same way that they did over the DNA is telling to me.

Something is off about what we are supposed to know. When they ate, whether there was something in the duodenum or if Meredith's system was not operating well.

The 150 minutes makes her TOD before she arrived home if you choose to accept the 6 pm dinner time. Even the 6:30 time has TOD ten minutes before arriving home.

Taking what Chris just said, 6 30, and what Planagale said 1% chance of survival at 9, leaves my bull right out of it.

 

[Grinder]

It looks to me that he's just saying that he made an allowance for every possible prosecution argument and there's still no way you can get to a ToD of 11:45 even with Lalli's original (mistaken) estimate. It's a range where roughly the first half (left side) of the curve the percentages go up, and the second half (right) of the curve the percentages go down making the middle of the curve where it's most likely.

If you only take the right side of the curve because you've eliminated the possibility it happened before a specific time, 9PM in this case, then the earliest figures will be the highest probabilities and will descend with every time interval after 9 PM until they hit near zero around 9:30 PM.

Agree with everything except the convenient zero at 9:30. We don't know when the meal started nor do we know if Meredith started eating when the other girls did.

I've only scanned the testimony of the girls but at least one says as early as 5:30 which would put your zero at 9.

 

[Grinder]

Taking what Chris just said, 6 30, and what Planagale said 1% chance of survival at 9, leaves my bull right out of it.

Planagale has no idea if it is 1% and Chris hasn't read the girls testimony.

 

[acbytesla]

Since we really don't know when Meredith started eating, I don't see how a certainty of 90% can be put on 9:30. If it makes you feel good then that's great.

There is something amiss with the information we have or Meredith's system wasn't working well at all which trumps estimates based on a normal system

While there are people here that wish to doubt Lalli's ability to do a simple BAC test they are fine with his analysis on her digestive health.

As I said earlier it would be great to see the same kind of expert analysis of this element as we had with the DNA. Too bad the defense didn't request an independent report on this.

Looks like those first two phone calls never connected with the tower.

No, they were only found on the phone.

I beg to disagree. Her state of digestion was really on borrowed time as of 9:00 as to when the stomach begins emptying into the duodenum according to the studies.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

I suggest you read the testimony of the girls.

I suggest you read my comment.

 

[Grinder]

I suggest you read my comment.

I read it. The girls in the testimony I've looked at so far are very vague about the evening. Really it is the afternoon (circa 4 pm) and the evening. They look at picture from the night before, make pizza look at some other stuff on the Internet and then the apple crumble which it seems they describe each time as something like an apple pie. Oh and they had multiple flavored ice cream including coffee.

Perhaps more reading will give me more clarity on the events of the evening but as I said the recounting is vague. They weren't marking the times anymore than Raf and Amanda were.

ETA - here's why I said you read their testimony

we stopped the movie to prepare dinner, then
We have begun to see the movie while we ate.

2- PROSECUTOR-During the conversation that there was
that afternoon, Meredith has talked about boys,
particular we spoke of a boy of color,
name Rudi?
Heads-no, nothing at all.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

alcohol metabolism

Alcohol is metabolized at the rate of .015 of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) every hour. 1 Thus a person with a very high BAC of .15 will have no measurable alcohol in the bloodstream after ten hours (.15 divided by .015 = 10). Here are some other examples:[/indent][/I]

Your graphs show that the rate of clearance falls at low concentration of alcohol.

"In most individuals, the rate of excretion ranges from 0.01% (10 mg/100 ml) to 0.025% (25 mg/100 ml) per hour, with a mean of 0.0175 (frequently rounded off to 0.017 or 0.018)." "David M. Benjamin, Ph.D. is a Clinical Pharmacologist and Forensic Toxicologist."link

 

[Samson]

Planagale has no idea if it is 1% and Chris hasn't read the girls testimony.

All roads lead to Rome. It is not you or Chris or kaosium or Planagale that are right, but the collective weight of analysis, and this is completely unlike the prosecution's all the other evidence nonsense. This is a collective debate about one crucial piece of evidence that keeps pointing one way, to a girl arriving home to an intruder. She died before 9 30 is a very high probability, and Amanda and Raffaele had little opportunity even after this to find Rudy and let him in. I would ridicule Bongiorno for showing that long lunching lawyer hanging from the bars instead of the more Rudy like rock climber. The defence in the last appeal had 6 years to line their ducks up, and did a lousy job. The reality is highly paid defence attorneys have no realistic chance of competing with the collective analysis compiled within a forum like this. Everyone was hoodwinked in the first trial. In the second trial analysis was not needed because the acquittal seemed predetermined. There is no excuse for the third trial fiasco, as this TOD stuff had been long accumulated, I read it in part 4 the other day.

ETA we stopped the movie to prepare dinner This could make sense of the unusual digestion delay beyond 80 minutes.

 

[Kaosium]

Great. You have proven she was dead 30 minutes before she returned home.

No, simply that it's more likely she was attacked/killed before 9 PM than it is she was killed after 9:30 PM. Yes, the British girls would be better suspects than Amanda and Raffaele. That's damning with faint praise however.

If we are to accept Lalli's work on the duodenum and a starting time of dinner before 6:30 then she was dead before arrival.

That's an idiotic interpretation of the argument and entirely false.

I have found no testimony of how many pieces of pizza she ate nor do we know if the crust was burned or how much cheese was on it.

So what? Tell me what that means.

Sophie had no real idea when dinner started. It is certainly possible that the girls don't remember dinner that well and came up with a time. Though mocked earlier I will restate that it's possible that Meredith in her hungover state delayed eating for 15 minutes or longer.

Because of the nature of the curve at this juncture that doesn't matter that much, just like if a person who was 95 and was uncertain of their birth year were to find out they'd been born a few years later than they thought. The actuarial table would not indicate a much greater life expectancy and it would still be likely or highly likely they'd die before 110.

If she didn't eat until 7 then 9:30 fits your "calculations". Btw, I do understand math and studied statistics at the UW. It was a long time ago but I still have a grasp. Clearly if we believe the "facts" we know that she was on the slow, slow end of digestion. What we don't know is how being hungover may have affected her digestion nor do we really know what the longest time could be for emptying to start.

Find me a study any study where 5% of the population went more than three hours without passing anything to their duodenum.

It is strange that the director of a prestigious university – Professor of legal medicine at the University of Bari, the Director of the school of specialization in Federated University of Bari and Foggia University, obviously I'm a specialist in forensic medicine. Are the only specialist in Italy specializing in forensic pathology in America ready for operation in America as coroner. doesn't understand gastric emptying as well as posters here.

Do you have any evidence he objected to Dr. Introna's presentation? Since the defense hired Dr. Introna to do that, why would you expect whoever you're talking about to replicate that analysis?

This is not just posters on the internet. This is posters on the internet representing Dr. Introna's work and trying to explain it to people who do not understand it.

Of course we are interested in the upper limit and that's the point I've made repeatedly. The curve we are interested in starts with no emptying for however many minutes since Meredith started eating until death or attack since that could stop digestion it is contended. So what percentage of people that didn't start in 3 hours (pick a time) will not have started 3.5 or 3.75 hours? I don't believe we know nor do I believe the science really can tell us with precision to a single percent.

However the data for any study can determine that for their study. I've already linked a similar analysis from LJ. The times he picked are 2.5 hours compared to those who were over that in the study he analyzed.

I don't believe that her condition can be ignored nor do I believe that her drug and alcohol consumption that afternoon and evening can be ignored.

It's not being ignored. It's not being given a status greater than its noted effects either. There have been studies that included the consumption of a similar amount of alcohol and that effect on T (lag) times. I've even told you where to look for them, now find one where a significant portion of the study showed a T (lag) of over three hours.

Perhaps the defense will have a new consultant that will put it all together and prove that she had to be dead by 9:30.

Why bother? It's too easy to come up with specious objections to the data and say it doesn't matter. The prosecution is required to do that if they want to keep prosecuting Raffaele and Amanda. Then the bunnies spend months/years agreeing with that and mocking anyone who dares pretend the analysis by the defense is relevant until the objections to the presentation are considered valid.

If the time is so easily proven I suggest that the defense produce the expert and publish a true scientific paper on this. I truly find it difficult to believe that some expert hasn't looked at this case and written a paper as the DNA people sort of did.

Are you talking about independent experts appointed by the court like C&V were? I think the defense may have asked for that on this subject as well,

I would love to see a scientist in the field prove TOD by 9:15 with a 99% confidence level.

How about 95% by 9:30 PM?

 

[Kaosium]

Agree with everything except the convenient zero at 9:30. We don't know when the meal started nor do we know if Meredith started eating when the other girls did.

I've only scanned the testimony of the girls but at least one says as early as 5:30 which would put your zero at 9.

Yep. Now what does that mean?

 

[Grinder]

Your graphs show that the rate of clearance falls at low concentration of alcohol.

"In most individuals, the rate of excretion ranges from 0.01% (10 mg/100 ml) to 0.025% (25 mg/100 ml) per hour, with a mean of 0.0175 (frequently rounded off to 0.017 or 0.018)." "David M. Benjamin, Ph.D. is a Clinical Pharmacologist and Forensic Toxicologist."link

Even if there is a small variance which most sources do not agree with she would have to have been drunk as a skunk to still have a drink or two still in her system.

Perhaps his opinion is swayed by the fact that he is a trial expert testifier.

I do believe that his opinion is in conflict with the Widmark formula.