Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Grinder]

Why yes, yes it could. Particularly if she was drinking Genny cream ale.

From what I can find drinking of the nature Meredith may have done the night bbefore might well have impacted her entire system including the digestive tract.

Delaying of the emptying makes much more sense no matter what you are trying to prove. It is clear that if she ate at 6 or even 6:30 that she is already slow or very slow at 9.

If the heavy drinking could explain it, I think that would make it all make more sense.

 

[Grinder]

There was a high alcohol test that the PLE claimed was caused by a poor storage method or alcohol already being in the container.

Lalli found .43 and that was confirmed by another lab testing the liver.

For some reason a few people here don't want Meredith to have the equivalent of a drink in her at death.

This is by far the general opinion that I have found:

The rate at which alcohol is metabolized is the same for virtually everyone regardless of their height, weight, sex, race or other such characteristics.

Alcohol is metabolized at the rate of .015 of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) every hour. 1 Thus a person with a very high BAC of .15 will have no measurable alcohol in the bloodstream after ten hours (.15 divided by .015 = 10). Here are some other examples:​

The above is written by a PhD sociologist from the alcohol field

How long does it take alcohol to be absorbed in your body?

Answer:
Alcohol burns off at a precise rate of .016 BAC per hour, about equal to 1 standard drink each hour (depending on your weight). This rate is true regardless of the size of your body. A 5'2" female burns off alcohol at the same rate as a 6'1" obese male.

The differences, however, are in the rate with which your BAC rises. One drink in a small female of low weight constitutes a much larger percent of her BAC. It may take a male 5 drinks or more in an hour to reach a BAC of .08, while it may take a small female only 2 or three drinks.

Also, alcohol absorption varies depending on individual fat levels. For instance, an individual with a lot of fat will be slower to absorb alcohol. However, when two people with equal weight, but different fat levels, drink the same amount of alcohol, the one with less fat will absorb the alcohol faster than the one with more fat while the absorption of alcohol metabolizes at the same rate.​

http://prevention.gwu.edu/alcohol-absorption

From another site:

 

[Grinder]

Because I am reasonably new to this intrigue, I may have a Pollyanna view. The report is doomed, because it is the second attempt only (after Massei) to present a detailed crime narrative involving A and R. Massei had an unlimited canvas. He could work from 9 12 (Amelie) till whenever, because he placed TOD at 11 30. Crini has taken this off the table, and validated Naruto at 9 26, but even Amalie poses extreme difficulty. This is a quantum leap in fiction writing. Nencini needs an empty cottage for a tract of time, after a hasty packing of the knife, the slaying, and the lack of traceable blood to the defendants. In my view Nencini has taken out a large loan, payable in three months, and trusting to unknown resources to repay it. Repayment is due.

I hope my analogy is not too obscure.

Could you point me towards Crini validating Naruto? I've not been able to find that and it is important.

It is crucial moving the alibi to nearly 9:30. Of course, the biggest problem for the prosecution with Naruto is Curatolo. He was positive that it was 9:28 or 7 when he first saw BOTH of them. If he wasn't sure it was both of them, one could have remained at the flat.
'
If the ILE accepts 9:26 then Curatolo is out. Now I've always thought the PGP were in error accepting him and they should never have taken his testimony to court.

So Curatolo is out which means there is not one iota of evidence that the kids were out running around for hours killing, raping, and pillaging.

Combine that with his bus confusion and Massei's time line based on when imaginary buses were leaving the plaza.

Nara becomes useless as well, as she went to bed at 9 to 9:30 and always slept for a period before getting up to pee.

Whether or not Nencini needs to harmonize the motivations with Massei or not isn't necessarily his biggest issue. He needs to harmonize with the witnesses he never saw and I don't see how he does that.

 

[Diocletus]

I understand Nencini's brain emptying has 14 days to run its course.

And the results will look like the aftermath of Genny cream ale.

 

[RoseMontague]

Could you point me towards Crini validating Naruto? I've not been able to find that and it is important.

It is crucial moving the alibi to nearly 9:30. Of course, the biggest problem for the prosecution with Naruto is Curatolo. He was positive that it was 9:28 or 7 when he first saw BOTH of them. If he wasn't sure it was both of them, one could have remained at the flat.
'
If the ILE accepts 9:26 then Curatolo is out. Now I've always thought the PGP were in error accepting him and they should never have taken his testimony to court.

So Curatolo is out which means there is not one iota of evidence that the kids were out running around for hours killing, raping, and pillaging.

Combine that with his bus confusion and Massei's time line based on when imaginary buses were leaving the plaza.

Nara becomes useless as well, as she went to bed at 9 to 9:30 and always slept for a period before getting up to pee.

Whether or not Nencini needs to harmonize the motivations with Massei or not isn't necessarily his biggest issue. He needs to harmonize with the witnesses he never saw and I don't see how he does that.

Crini's closing arguments are listed here. I recall seeing this when I went through it with a Google translation a few weeks back.

http://www.amandaknox.com/the-meredith-kercher-murder/transcripts/

 

[Grinder]

Crini's closing arguments are listed here. I recall seeing this when I went through it with a Google translation a few weeks back.

http://www.amandaknox.com/the-meredith-kercher-murder/transcripts/

Thanks!

There is some part translated on her site.

So there is a rather consistent presence of people and none of them ever said they noticed something unusual. Hence evidently if we have to put this fact [not clear what fact, perhaps the presence of the defendants at the square] after the tow truck leaving, then we have to go beyond a quarter past eleven, so very late and hence, since the time of death is all in all very inaccurate, the reasoning has some credibility, even if certainly it is … no, it is not belied by anything, since Curatolo also says “I left before midnight and they were not there anymore”, hence it has somehow a compatibility with this aspect too.
Should we instead think that it is more reasonable that Curatolo’s recollection is due to the fact that he saw a moment when the discussion was very animated because the fact [the murder] had just happened, and so, maybe exactly because of the causes we think we will be able to demonstrate later, they were waiting for the area being cleared by the cumbersome presence of the cars, the tow truck and the rest, if hence we have to collocate Curatolo’s recollection at a moment following the perpetration of the crime, then certainly this event has to be placed at an earlier time, that is surely compatible with the time when they left [Raffaele’s] home, about 9:26 pm, the moment when the viewing of the movie [Amelie] is over, then there is the crash of Naruto [an event recorded on Raffaele’s computer], but in any case let us keep in mind that as I said before, we are very near, the two houses being about three hundred meters from one another, let us say three hundred and fifty […]. Let us then say three hundred and fifty [meters], so maybe a three or four minutes walk, is the distance between the two houses. So it fits comfortably [our timeline].
​

Does the first highlight mean he is sticking with a 11:30 TOD? Later it seems he is saying way earlier.

col·lo·cate
ˈkäləˌkāt/Submit
verb
1.
LINGUISTICS
(of a word) be habitually juxtaposed with another with a frequency greater than chance.
"“maiden” collocates with “voyage.”"
2.
rare
place side by side or in a particular relation.
"McAndrew was a collocated facility with Argentia Naval Station"
nounLINGUISTICS
1.
a word that is habitually juxtaposed with another with a frequency greater than chance.
"collocates for the word “mortgage” include “lend” and “property.”"

Can someone explain the collocate sentence?

 

[Diocletus]

Thanks!

There is some part translated on her site.

So there is a rather consistent presence of people and none of them ever said they noticed something unusual. Hence evidently if we have to put this fact [not clear what fact, perhaps the presence of the defendants at the square] after the tow truck leaving, then we have to go beyond a quarter past eleven, so very late and hence, since the time of death is all in all very inaccurate, the reasoning has some credibility, even if certainly it is … no, it is not belied by anything, since Curatolo also says “I left before midnight and they were not there anymore”, hence it has somehow a compatibility with this aspect too.
Should we instead think that it is more reasonable that Curatolo’s recollection is due to the fact that he saw a moment when the discussion was very animated because the fact [the murder] had just happened, and so, maybe exactly because of the causes we think we will be able to demonstrate later, they were waiting for the area being cleared by the cumbersome presence of the cars, the tow truck and the rest, if hence we have to collocate Curatolo’s recollection at a moment following the perpetration of the crime, then certainly this event has to be placed at an earlier time, that is surely compatible with the time when they left [Raffaele’s] home, about 9:26 pm, the moment when the viewing of the movie [Amelie] is over, then there is the crash of Naruto [an event recorded on Raffaele’s computer], but in any case let us keep in mind that as I said before, we are very near, the two houses being about three hundred meters from one another, let us say three hundred and fifty […]. Let us then say three hundred and fifty [meters], so maybe a three or four minutes walk, is the distance between the two houses. So it fits comfortably [our timeline].
​

Does the first highlight mean he is sticking with a 11:30 TOD? Later it seems he is saying way earlier.

col·lo·cate
ˈkäləˌkāt/Submit
verb
1.
LINGUISTICS
(of a word) be habitually juxtaposed with another with a frequency greater than chance.
"“maiden” collocates with “voyage.”"
2.
rare
place side by side or in a particular relation.
"McAndrew was a collocated facility with Argentia Naval Station"
nounLINGUISTICS
1.
a word that is habitually juxtaposed with another with a frequency greater than chance.
"collocates for the word “mortgage” include “lend” and “property.”"

Can someone explain the collocate sentence?

I think he's saying that Naruto crashed, and then they immediately ran out of the house, murdered Kercher, and then ran to the square where Curatalo noticed them, although his "9:27" thing must be off a bit.

LOL. I'll bet Nencini is fit to be tied right about now.

 

[Grinder]

I think he's saying that Naruto crashed, and then they immediately ran out of the house, murdered Kercher, and then ran to the square where Curatalo noticed them, although his "9:27" thing must be off a bit.

LOL. I'll bet Nencini is fit to be tied right about now.

Thanks.

Everyone should read the English translation of the Curatolo part. The more I read of these guys the more my theory of a different gene in the brains of Italians.

ETA - at one point Crini is saying that Curatolo is a far from the kids as he is from the judges. Somehow I don't think he was over 1/2 a football field from the judges.

 

[Planigale]

The problem always with statistics is explaining them to non statisticians. I am not a statistician but do use them a lot. With regards to gastric emptying we are not interested in medians or means but in the upper limit, what is a reasonable upper limit for gastric emptying (by which we mean T lag). I would suggest 99%. That is to say we say that there is only a 1% chance that gastric emptying happened later than this time. There are smarter ways of doing this but the smarter one is the more difficult to explain to non mathematically inclined persons.

We are not going to find a study that looks at hungover 20 something year old females eating pizza. But we can look at a broad range of data. E.g. Delayed gastric emptying and reduced postprandial small bowel water content of equicaloric whole meal bread versus rice meals in healthy subjects: novel MRI insights.
Marciani L. Pritchard SE. Hellier-Woods C. Costigan C. Hoad CL. Gowland PA. Spiller RC.
European Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 67(7):754-8, 2013 Jul. They showed stodgy bread as compared with softer rice pudding resulted in a 30 minute delay in gastric emptying. The former is more equivalent to pizza the latter to often quoted test meals. The bigger and fatter (e.g. cheese) the more delayed the opening. Alcohol and cannabis also add to delays (I know there is some controversy whether either or both had been consumed). A second meal (pudding adds a further delay). Surprisingly the papers on stress in humans suggest little delay (do not confuse with shock as physiologically this means circulatory collapse not psychological stress). Overall my feeling is that a delay in gastric emptying of around 150 minutes would meet the 1% limit. If i have time I will do a better summary of the data, but the reality is that there is limit to the introduction of new evidence in the appeals process, and I feel that the defence were insufficiently aggressive in dotting the i's etc. for every bit of evidence. Perhaps overconfident that the case was not provable, how wrong they were, and now it is too late to enter new evidence easily.

 

[Grinder]

The problem always with statistics is explaining them to non statisticians. I am not a statistician but do use them a lot. With regards to gastric emptying we are not interested in medians or means but in the upper limit, what is a reasonable upper limit for gastric emptying (by which we mean T lag). I would suggest 99%. That is to say we say that there is only a 1% chance that gastric emptying happened later than this time. There are smarter ways of doing this but the smarter one is the more difficult to explain to non mathematically inclined persons.

We are not going to find a study that looks at hungover 20 something year old females eating pizza. But we can look at a broad range of data. E.g. Delayed gastric emptying and reduced postprandial small bowel water content of equicaloric whole meal bread versus rice meals in healthy subjects: novel MRI insights.
Marciani L. Pritchard SE. Hellier-Woods C. Costigan C. Hoad CL. Gowland PA. Spiller RC.
European Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 67(7):754-8, 2013 Jul. They showed stodgy bread as compared with softer rice pudding resulted in a 30 minute delay in gastric emptying. The former is more equivalent to pizza the latter to often quoted test meals. The bigger and fatter (e.g. cheese) the more delayed the opening. Alcohol and cannabis also add to delays (I know there is some controversy whether either or both had been consumed). A second meal (pudding adds a further delay). Surprisingly the papers on stress in humans suggest little delay (do not confuse with shock as physiologically this means circulatory collapse not psychological stress). Overall my feeling is that a delay in gastric emptying of around 150 minutes would meet the 1% limit. If i have time I will do a better summary of the data, but the reality is that there is limit to the introduction of new evidence in the appeals process, and I feel that the defence were insufficiently aggressive in dotting the i's etc. for every bit of evidence. Perhaps overconfident that the case was not provable, how wrong they were, and now it is too late to enter new evidence easily.

Great. You have proven she was dead 30 minutes before she returned home.

If we are to accept Lalli's work on the duodenum and a starting time of dinner before 6:30 then she was dead before arrival. I have found no testimony of how many pieces of pizza she ate nor do we know if the crust was burned or how much cheese was on it.

Sophie had no real idea when dinner started. It is certainly possible that the girls don't remember dinner that well and came up with a time. Though mocked earlier I will restate that it's possible that Meredith in her hungover state delayed eating for 15 minutes or longer.

If she didn't eat until 7 then 9:30 fits your "calculations". Btw, I do understand math and studied statistics at the UW. It was a long time ago but I still have a grasp. Clearly if we believe the "facts" we know that she was on the slow, slow end of digestion. What we don't know is how being hungover may have affected her digestion nor do we really know what the longest time could be for emptying to start.

It is strange that the director of a prestigious university – Professor of legal medicine at the University of Bari, the Director of the school of specialization in Federated University of Bari and Foggia University, obviously I'm a specialist in forensic medicine. Are the only specialist in Italy specializing in forensic pathology in America ready for operation in America as coroner. doesn't understand gastric emptying as well as posters here.

Of course we are interested in the upper limit and that's the point I've made repeatedly. The curve we are interested in starts with no emptying for however many minutes since Meredith started eating until death or attack since that could stop digestion it is contended. So what percentage of people that didn't start in 3 hours (pick a time) will not have started 3.5 or 3.75 hours? I don't believe we know nor do I believe the science really can tell us with precision to a single percent.

I don't believe that her condition can be ignored nor do I believe that her drug and alcohol consumption that afternoon and evening can be ignored.

Perhaps the defense will have a new consultant that will put it all together and prove that she had to be dead by 9:30.

If the time is so easily proven I suggest that the defense produce the expert and publish a true scientific paper on this. I truly find it difficult to believe that some expert hasn't looked at this case and written a paper as the DNA people sort of did.

I would love to see a scientist in the field prove TOD by 9:15 with a 99% confidence level.

 

[Diocletus]

Thanks.

Everyone should read the English translation of the Curatolo part. The more I read of these guys the more my theory of a different gene in the brains of Italians.

ETA - at one point Crini is saying that Curatolo is a far from the kids as he is from the judges. Somehow I don't think he was over 1/2 a football field from the judges.

He might have been . . . maybe he was trying to avoid getting hit by the meteor that was about to crash through the ceiling.

 

[anglolawyer]

The virgins attended the police station the night of 02 Nov. They gave statements to the police. Where are those statements, or the cops' notes or the tapes? Maybe they were pinned down on timings of the meal or maybe the cops were too unfocused or stupid to ask. It would be good to know which because, if they weren't asked, then it's hard to see how anybody could be sure about anything several months later when their minds were directed to the point. IOW it may very well be that the evidence of when Meredith started eating, not necessarily the same thing as when the meal started, isn't that cut and dried.

 

[TomG]

If the time is so easily proven I suggest that the defense produce the expert and publish a true scientific paper on this. I truly find it difficult to believe that some expert hasn't looked at this case and written a paper as the DNA people sort of did.

I would love to see a scientist in the field prove TOD by 9:15 with a 99% confidence level.

Well it’s not often that I comment amongst the Cognoscenti of the case but why haven’t the defence pursued the duodenum evidence to a definitive conclusion? Is it just that it’s a bit murkier than we thought or is it that the prosecution know that this issue could be their achilles heel and are driving the knife and bra-clasp scenarios endlessly as red herrings.

As long as the defence is chasing shadows with the argument being impossible to disprove since exact vectors of contamination cannot be proved, in that way the case is stymied and crucial evidence such as the duodenum evidence remain suppressed.

Hoots!

 

[Grinder]

The virgins attended the police station the night of 02 Nov. They gave statements to the police. Where are those statements, or the cops' notes or the tapes? Maybe they were pinned down on timings of the meal or maybe the cops were too unfocused or stupid to ask. It would be good to know which because, if they weren't asked, then it's hard to see how anybody could be sure about anything several months later when their minds were directed to the point. IOW it may very well be that the evidence of when Meredith started eating, not necessarily the same thing as when the meal started, isn't that cut and dried.

Yes and it could be possible that the meal "started" when they put the pizza in the oven. They arrived around 4 pm and looked at pictures and put together the pizza and started the video.

One thing is certain and that is the 9:05 attack time is possible and therefore probable.

What is impossible is that the TOD was after 11 no matter when they ate.

The interview with Sophie in court refers to a Feb 8 2008 interview not one before.

Anglo you are right that all these interviews with the PLE should be in the defense's hands.

 

[anglolawyer]

Yes and it could be possible that the meal "started" when they put the pizza in the oven. They arrived around 4 pm and looked at pictures and put together the pizza and started the video.

One thing is certain and that is the 9:05 attack time is possible and therefore probable.

What is impossible is that the TOD was after 11 no matter when they ate.

The interview with Sophie in court refers to a Feb 8 2008 interview not one before.

Anglo you are right that all these interviews with the PLE should be in the defense's hands.

Well, Sophie was at the police station for some considerable time the night of the 2nd. Source WTBH. She must have said something and you would think it a matter of routine for the cops to nail down the details of the victim's last day including when and what she ate. Anyway, we agree. Their statements should be available for review.

 

[Desert Fox]

Well, Sophie was at the police station for some considerable time the night of the 2nd. Source WTBH. She must have said something and you would think it a matter of routine for the cops to nail down the details of the victim's last day including when and what she ate. Anyway, we agree. Their statements should be available for review.

They seem to have selective recording abilities.

 

[anglolawyer]

They seem to have selective recording abilities.

I am not sure that's the problem. It may be that such things are not discoverable in the Italian system, which certainly has some issues with disclosure - to put it mildly. Or it may be this is stuff the defence teams have but which have not found their way to the outside world.

 

[Diocletus]

Well, Sophie was at the police station for some considerable time the night of the 2nd. Source WTBH. She must have said something and you would think it a matter of routine for the cops to nail down the details of the victim's last day including when and what she ate. Anyway, we agree. Their statements should be available for review.

I'd rather have the tapes of Mignini's meetings with the virgins in Bergamo. Why Bergamo, BTW?

 

[anglolawyer]

I'd rather have the tapes of Mignini's meetings with the virgins in Bergamo. Why Bergamo, BTW?

I wouldn't. Give me everything from week one.

 

[RWVBWL]

Lali made mistakes certainly. Failing to measure body temp immediately was the first one...his duty should have trumped the prosecutors wishes.

My understanding was he didn't have the opportunity, it was Stefanoni who was running the show that day, taking orders from Mignini.

But Kaosium,
Doc Stefanoni is up in Rome, isn't she?
That's a bit of a 2 hour drive away:
http://www.travelmath.com/driving-time/from/Perugia,+Italy/to/Rome,+Italy

Also, didn't she have to get special permission to drive on down and help in the collection of evidence in this horrible death of an enrolled English college student studying in Perugia?

Surely Mignini and Lali were there before the Stef, right?
I'd say it's Mignini's fault no body temp was taken.

And as I've done a bitta research into an old, fatal shark attach here in So. Cal. back in 1989, the 1st thing the cororner did was take the decedents body temp, and he also reported the water temp too in his report...

I agree, RandyN,
Dr. Lali should have bypassed Mignini's wish and taken Miss Kercher's body temp,
heck he got fired afterwards anyways...